[vtsnowedin]

Lighten up guys. I managed to get the shredder (Brush hog) mounted on the tractor which is not an easy thing to do by your self. And mowed down a couple of acres of weeds in my daughters apple orchard. I have about seven acres to do tomorrow for their once a year clipping.
After that I need to move on to the wood pile needing ten cord or so before winter arrives.
I bought five gallons of off road diesel today for $5.35 a gallon. The road taxed diesel on the other side of the pump was $5.90 a gallon.
Lets go Brandon.

[C8]

Lighten up guys. I managed to get the shredder (Brush hog) mounted on the tractor which is not an easy thing to do by your self. And mowed down a couple of acres of weeds in my daughters apple orchard. I have about seven acres to do tomorrow for their once a year clipping.
After that I need to move on to the wood pile needing ten cord or so before winter arrives.
I bought five gallons of off road diesel today for $5.35 a gallon. The road taxed diesel on the other side of the pump was $5.90 a gallon.
Lets go Brandon.

What are you, some kind of superdude/Chuck Norris character?

[vtsnowedin]

Lighten up guys. I managed to get the shredder (Brush hog) mounted on the tractor which is not an easy thing to do by your self. And mowed down a couple of acres of weeds in my daughters apple orchard. I have about seven acres to do tomorrow for their once a year clipping.
After that I need to move on to the wood pile needing ten cord or so before winter arrives.
I bought five gallons of off road diesel today for $5.35 a gallon. The road taxed diesel on the other side of the pump was $5.90 a gallon.
Lets go Brandon.

What are you, some kind of superdude/Chuck Norris character?

Just an average dyed in the wool redneck Vermonter.
There is nothing grand in that post as the tractor is 45HP and fully capable of clipping ten acres a day if I can stand the jarring on my prostrate, and I'm not going to move onto the wood the same day I mow or do more then about a half cord per day as I have three months to work it up and most of it is already lying in the log and has been drying for over a year.

[Newfie]

One of the big things that suppresses degrowth is the ability to implement the required policies. The policies would require people to undertake some near term sacrifice, if simply a reduction in desire, for a linger range benefit to the unborn. Supporting for these policies would require extraordinary allegiance to the state.

China is in a degrowth cycle, the one-child policy has reduced growth to the point where the population will start to shrink, while it gets progressively older. How does one manage a shrinking population?

Looks like Xi thinks he has an answer.


https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ha ... bout-china’s-economy-204370

[vtsnowedin]

One of the big things that suppresses degrowth is the ability to implement the required policies. The policies would require people to undertake some near term sacrifice, if simply a reduction in desire, for a linger range benefit to the unborn. Supporting for these policies would require extraordinary allegiance to the state.

China is in a degrowth cycle, the one-child policy has reduced growth to the point where the population will start to shrink, while it gets progressively older. How does one manage a shrinking population?

Looks like Xi thinks he has an answer.


https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ha ... bout-china’s-economy-204370

That one is pay walled. Could you cut and past the pertinent conclusion?

[C8]

I don't think there is a way to maintain a steady state economy w/o dictatorship. Through all history, nations have either grown or shrunk in population and there has never been a steady state "maintenance" country let alone one that purposely shrank (the "one child policy" of China was to slow growth).

Democracies have great difficulty planning populations and economies- the future is probably some form of authoritarian govt. that pretends to be a democracy. Capitalism and democracy don't work well in a world of declining energy- its sad but I see no other path.

[vtsnowedin]

.

Democracies have great difficulty planning populations and economies- the future is probably some form of authoritarian govt. that pretends to be a democracy. Capitalism and democracy don't work well in a world of declining energy- its sad but I see no other path.

Actually Capitalism will be the best option in a declining energy world. It will both minimize the decline in energy production and reward innovators that find alternatives to past practices.

[C8]

.

Democracies have great difficulty planning populations and economies- the future is probably some form of authoritarian govt. that pretends to be a democracy. Capitalism and democracy don't work well in a world of declining energy- its sad but I see no other path.

Actually Capitalism will be the best option in a declining energy world. It will both minimize the decline in energy production and reward innovators that find alternatives to past practices.

Energy = growth / Declining energy = declining profits
Capitalism is a future oriented economic system that depends on future growth of earnings

[vtsnowedin]

.

Democracies have great difficulty planning populations and economies- the future is probably some form of authoritarian govt. that pretends to be a democracy. Capitalism and democracy don't work well in a world of declining energy- its sad but I see no other path.

Actually Capitalism will be the best option in a declining energy world. It will both minimize the decline in energy production and reward innovators that find alternatives to past practices.

Energy = growth / Declining energy = declining profits
Capitalism is a future oriented economic system that depends on future growth of earnings

Capitalism will happily sell you fewer units of energy for a higher price per unit. Growth needs to match the growth in the population but beyond that the growth desired is in the profits. Historically we have always had a growing population so the easiest way to increase profits was to produce more widgets at a profitable price margin
But times are changing. NPR had a piece on yesterday about China's economy and demographics. They can project a time when they will have only 1.9 workers supporting each retiree. They now have 7.8 , The USA is at 4.6. A lot of the world has this problem but China will hit that wall well before the rest of us. I think the answer will be to have the robot's (or their owners) that replace the workers pay taxes on their productivity.

[Newfie]

Here is the article. The link would not work for me either. I had picked this up originally from RealClearWorld and had to go back there to get it again.

Has Xi Jinping Stopped Caring About China’s Economy?
Economic growth used to be sacred, but Xi Jinping is sacrificing it for greater political and ideological control.


For decades, capable management of the economy and policies that promote strong growth have been the cornerstones of the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy to maintain social and political stability. But President Xi Jinping’s policy decisions, especially since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, show that this era is likely over.

Slaughtering one sacred cow after another, Xi has destroyed profitable industries with a word, shut down major cities for months at a time, and sought to cut China off from international markets. Analysts have often portrayed these moves as blunders that open Xi up to challenges from within the party. Yet it is time to embrace the reality that Xi prefers it this way. His vision for maintaining stability calls for extreme political and ideological control, and he is more than willing to sacrifice economic progress to achieve it.

Last year, the party leadership surprised observers by launching a sprawling regulatory crackdown on China’s tech sector, real estate, cryptocurrencies, the private tutoring industry, and much more. The silencing of billionaire Jack Ma and investigations against his company, Ant Group, was just the first salvo in a clampdown on tech giants that has cost investors over $1 trillion and left the industry stagnant. A blizzard of fines, purges, and regulations has led to a funding crunch in the property sector, dragging down overall growth numbers. Harsh and unexpected decrees preventing tutoring companies from pursuing profits, going public, or raising foreign capital wiped out much of the value of leading companies and created an “existential crisis” for the entire industry.

Yet the single costliest choice has been Xi’s insistence on adherence to a “zero-Covid” policy, now termed “dynamic zero-Covid.” As the rest of the world has opened up and accepted some level of coexistence with the virus, China has held out. This has meant imposing long lockdowns in dozens of cities—Shanghai being the most prominent example. Businesses have failed at unprecedented rates across the country, especially small and medium-sized ones. Moreover, zero-Covid has shut China’s doors to the outside world, which is often portrayed in state media as a dangerous source of infection. Xi has sent clear signals that there will be no retreat from zero-Covid, especially not before the Twentieth Party Congress later this year.

“Even if there are some temporary impacts on the economy, we will not put people's lives and health in harm’s way,” Xi Jinping said in June.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, Xi’s “no limits” partnership with Russia and soft support for Russia’s actions have created additional economic risks. As Russia’s economy is being pummeled by international sanctions, Xi’s policy opens Chinese firms up to secondary sanctions and other uncertainties. Nor is it clear that closer trade relations with Russia can compensate for losses. China’s position on the Russo-Ukrainian War has also strained relations with Brussels, stalling negotiations on the long-awaited EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. In addition, China has levied sanctions against European, American, and other foreign companies and individuals in recent years, often in response to criticism over its policies toward Hong Kong or Xinjiang.

The collective economic cost of Xi’s policies has been substantial, including reduced industrial output, severe capital flight, and unemployment rates that in the past would have been a five-alarm fire, especially in the key urban youth demographic. Surveys of economists suggest that China’s growth will slow to around 4 percent this year, missing its 5.5 percent target.

But Think of the Children!

Xi’s detrimental economic policies extend far beyond misguided attempts to correct real estate bubbles or local governments’ overinvestment in infrastructure; they decimate prospering industries in the name of social goals.

The starkest example of this is the July 2021 national policy aimed at reducing the workload of K-12 students. Under the banner of protecting children, the policy permanently ends supplementary educational services for K-12 students, effective immediately; no new business permits will be issued, and existing services must be converted to non-profit organizations.

Private education and training had been a booming industry, with total revenue in 2020 estimated to exceed $30 billion. As late as the second quarter of 2021, with the additional demand created by the pandemic, companies boasted the fastest-growing number of job openings.

The impact of Xi’s new policy was immediate and severe. New Oriental Education & Technology, a flagship education service company, reduced its number of learning centers from 1,669 in May 2021 to 744 by May 2022 and saw a 51.6 percent drop in revenue across the same period. New Oriental has been able to adapt somewhat, such as by expanding education services for adults, but numerous smaller companies have simply gone under and are now feeding China’s unemployment pool.

Yet, as critics have noted, this crackdown does nothing to solve the underlying economic and societal pressures that drive so many Chinese parents to sign their children up for round-the-clock tutoring in the first place.

Another industry suppressed supposedly for the sake of the kids is gaming. China has the world’s largest gaming market and the most developed esports market. China’s gaming industry generated $45.5 billion in domestic revenue in 2021 and the total export revenue was $17.3 billion.

The 2021 policy document, China Children’s Development Outline, limited gaming time for those under the age of eighteen, and strong enforcement mechanisms were imposed on all licensed games in China. The policy was built on past moves by Xi to eliminate violent, pornographic, or otherwise immoral content in video games that have rattled the industry since 2017. Its announcement led to a sharp and immediate drop in gaming companies’ stocks.

In addition to draconian regulations, there are also arbitrary interruptions. The government has been severely restricting the number of game licenses it grants, and between July 2021 and April 2022 it approved none. This regulatory uncertainty has devastated the industry; between July 2021 and July 2022, China lost 14,000 gaming companies.

Politics in Command

Why has Xi led so many policies that directly harm China’s economy? Analysts have often portrayed Xi’s moves as misguided attempts to avoid larger economic ills. Xi’s crackdowns on the technology and real estate sectors aimed to prevent bubbles and rebalance the economy. Zero-Covid is an attempt to protect the country’s weak healthcare system from going overboard. New rules on the education and gaming industries are investments in the health of China’s future workers.

Yet these explanations miss the big picture. Economically costly policies have all served to enhance the regime’s political and ideological control, both over the economy and over society.

Crackdowns on tech giants are driven less by distaste for monopolies, as in the United States, and more by fears that these companies are “insufficiently committed to promoting the goal advanced by the Chinese Communist Party,” as Harvard researcher Josh Freedman found. Similarly, restrictions on real estate borrowing and cryptocurrencies reflect fears that private market forces are too powerful, and that the state is losing its leading role in the economy and its free hand to dictate policy.

Zero-Covid has given Xi a perfect excuse to increase the government’s direct control over how Chinese people live, work, and travel. This control has been aided by the rollout of new forms of digital surveillance, such as the health code apps that citizens are required to download.

Clamping down on private education gives the party more complete control over what young people are learning, which is a key vector for propaganda. Over the past year, “Xi Jinping Thought” has been integrated into the national curriculum at all levels, including elementary schools.

Some of Xi’s mission of greater control is motivated by fears of foreign—meaning Western—influence in China. This is by no means a new concern but there has been a distinct rise in nationalism and xenophobia in China since the Covid-19 pandemic began, fanned in part by state media. Many of Xi’s economic crackdowns have a cultural decoupling effect, including preventing companies from raising foreign capital, making it difficult for foreigners to enter and stay in China, and increasingly discouraging Chinese students from studying abroad.

Xi’s desire to increase political and ideological control has accelerated over the last two years but such control has been a central goal since he came to power in 2012. Early on, critics noted that Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign, the rollback of partial freedoms for civil society in person and on the internet, and China’s increasingly assertive actions on the world stage would have economic repercussions. That Xi has willingly borne those costs and is now going even further is evidence enough that for the first time since Reform and Opening, the party leadership is abandoning Deng Xiaoping’s old adage of “get rich first.”

That said, Xi’s program is no return to the Mao Zedong era. Xi’s authoritarianism has inspired many comparisons to Mao’s but both the party and China have changed immeasurably over the last half-century. What Xi aims to do is draw on general ideas and practices from the Mao era—the importance of ideology, propaganda, and putting politics in command of the economy—and adapt them to a new era

[Newfie]

Vt wrote:

I think the answer will be to have the robot's (or their owners) that replace the workers pay taxes on their productivity.

I understand that line if thinking. OTOH degrowth is not just about shrinking population, it is also shrinking resources. Water, food, clean air, oil, species, forests, etc. AI and robots can’t address what no longer exists.

Macron yesterday:

“What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval … we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance … the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available … the end of the abundance of land and materials including water,” he said.

[vtsnowedin]

From the article above:

Last year, the party leadership surprised observers by launching a sprawling regulatory crackdown on China’s tech sector, real estate, cryptocurrencies, the private tutoring industry, and much more. The silencing of billionaire Jack Ma and investigations against his company, Ant Group, was just the first salvo in a clampdown on tech giants that has cost investors over $1 trillion and left the industry stagnant. A blizzard of fines, purges, and regulations has led to a funding crunch in the property sector, dragging down overall growth numbers. Harsh and unexpected decrees preventing tutoring companies from pursuing profits, going public, or raising foreign capital wiped out much of the value of leading companies and created an “existential crisis” for the entire industry.

Xi is a decrepit old man who's foolish policies and regulations are destroying the countries economy and hurting the population.
Hey!! That sounds familiar.

[Newfie]

He is 3 years younger than me.

[vtsnowedin]

He is 3 years younger than me.

Yes but you are minding your own business not driving a country to ruin.

[AdamB]

Xi is a decrepit old man who's foolish policies and regulations are destroying the countries economy and hurting the population.

Hey!! That sounds familiar.

Indeed. But we kicked that bum out and replaced him with another decrepit old man who, to his credit, at least managed to reverse the worst American recession since the Great Depression and get the economy back to some form of stability.

Not without some lumps and bumps, but then none of the Democans elected to right the sinking economic ships they inherited from Republicrats since 1992 have been particularly...appealing.

[vtsnowedin]

Xi is a decrepit old man who's foolish policies and regulations are destroying the countries economy and hurting the population.

Hey!! That sounds familiar.

Indeed. But we kicked that bum out and replaced him with another decrepit old man who, to his credit, at least managed to reverse the worst American recession since the Great Depression and get the economy back to some form of stability.

Not without some lumps and bumps, but then none of the Democans elected to right the sinking economic ships they inherited from Republicrats since 1992 have been particularly...appealing.

So you think the Biden administration is doing a better job then the Trump administration? Apparently you like $4.25 gas and 9% inflation.
Remind me to never take your advice about anything to do with money or voting.

[AdamB]

What are you, some kind of superdude/Chuck Norris character?

Just an average dyed in the wool redneck Vermonter.

Really? Have you ever met the real, designated by the people average Vermonter that represents you nationally? Based on the size of your state, he must live within walking distance.

[AdamB]

So you think the Biden administration is doing a better job then the Trump administration? Apparently you like $4.25 gas and 9% inflation.

You mean, I like replacing the administration that couldn't manage the healthy economy that Obama handed him and turned it into the worst recession since the Great Depression?

Good thing an economy is more than just inflation and high gas prices, otherwise you'd be saying the same thing about Reagan in the early 80's. Oops..no you wouldn't.

Remind me to never take your advice about anything to do with money or voting.

You don't take anybodys advice on voting, you are uni-directional in that regard. Out of curiousity, are you also an election denier? Did Bernie REALLY win his last election fair and square, or did the Dems cook the books? As far as money, you shouldn't take my advice on it, you're a big boy, and there is no more requirement our financial goals be any more similar than our political perspectives or hobbies.

[Plantagenet]

Macron of France just gave a speech to say: THE AGE OF ABUNDANCE IS OVER

That pretty much sums it up, IMHO.

For the last 70 years in the US we could count on food being in the grocery stores, gas being at the gas station, and electricity coming down the wire.

But those days are over.

The age of abundance is over....we are now entering the age of scarcity.

Not enough oil.

Not enough natural gas.

Not enough renewable energy.

Not enough workers to keep all the restaurants open.

Not enough pilots to keep all the passenger flights in the air.

Not enough computer chips.

Not enough rain.

Too much rain.

Too much heat.

Too many hurricanes and tornadoes.

And now the biggest problem of all is on the horizon.....

NOT ENOUGH FOOD.

FAMINE IS COMING SOON

The midwest got blasted by the heat dome over the US this summer. China got blasted by a heat dome and drought. Europe got blasted by a heat dome and Russia's idiotic invasion of Ukraine.

The crops have been damaged. Food shortages are coming...if not this year then in the next few years.

THE AGE OF ABUNDANCE IS OVER


We are now entering the AGE OF SCARCITY.......which will result in DEGROWTH.......which will ultimately result in DOOM.

Cheers!

[yellowcanoe]

And now the biggest problem of all is on the horizon.....

NOT ENOUGH FOOD.

FAMINE IS COMING SOON

The midwest got blasted by the heat dome over the US this summer. China got blasted by a heat dome and drought. Europe got blasted by a heat dome and Russia's idiotic invasion of Ukraine.

The crops have been damaged. Food shortages are coming...if not this year then in the next few years.

THE AGE OF ABUNDANCE IS OVER

And of course in Canada and the US we are still busy turning good quality farm land into new housing subdivisions. Got to keep our population growing!