[Newfie]

Review of a new book with some good news. Fertility rates falling.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/202 ... 842950002/

[Ibon]

Review of a new book with some good news. Fertility rates falling.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/202 ... 842950002/

Great news. This is the most humane way we can get through human ecological overshoot.

[JuanP]

Review of a new book with some good news. Fertility rates falling.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/202 ... 842950002/

Fertility rates have been falling for decades, Newfie, since before I was born. The book may be new, but fertility rates falling is definitely not news. This has been a fact my whole life! And, we are decades, if not centuries, too late. Of course, it would be worse if they were not falling, but with a global population of almost 8,000 millions, which has been growing at around 80 millions per year lately, this is way too little way too late. The Arctic is melting, Climate Change positive kickback loops are kicking in, the oceans are acidifying, the soil is eroding, the aquifers are being depleted, pollution is rampant, resources are increasingly scarce. the Amazon is dying, etc., etc., etc..

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

[Ibon]

this is way too little way too late. The Arctic is melting, Climate Change positive kickback loops are kicking in................

Typical of ecological overshoot the forces of correction are often multiple. A dwindling resource provoked by a weather event can then lead to the emergence of disease, then losing in competition to another species in a population already weakened. In this example we see weather, disease, competition and starvation all being contributing factors.

There is no need to find or define or defend a single silver bullet here. Reduced sperm counts are one of a series of corrective forces bringing balance to a species in severe overshoot, restoring us long term to some new carrying capacity.

Complex systems create multiple supporting factors that lead to resilience and in times of correction lead to multiple factors that contribute to decline.

You get back to resiliency by allowing the actors (like reduced sperm counts) to do their important work.

There is that famous line about the only constant is change.. I would amend that a bit or add another one in regards to populations of organisms. . The only constant is a never ending balancing act between expansion and contraction.

[JuanP]

Yes, Ibon, and the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 reduces both sperm count and sperm motility, my favorite symptom of the disease. I can't wait for further research to prove just how much and for how long; I am hoping that at least some of the damage is permanent, particularly in the younger generations. Everything that reduces population growth in a nonviolent way is welcome news to me.

[Pops]

So it is good news that sperm count is falling but not good news that women are getting more of a say in baby making (see the last 5 pages)?

Gotta be something there, I just don't know what. LOL

[JuanP]

So it is good news that sperm count is falling but not good news that women are getting more of a say in baby making (see the last 5 pages)?

Gotta be something there, I just don't know what. LOL

It is impossible to know who your post is addressed to, pops, if you don't provide a quote. I know it couldn't have been me since the last sentence on my post was "Everything that reduces population growth in a nonviolent way is welcome news to me."

You should be more specific so that whoever that post was addressed to will understand that. Carpe diem!

[Tanada]

So it is good news that sperm count is falling but not good news that women are getting more of a say in baby making (see the last 5 pages)?

Gotta be something there, I just don't know what. LOL

Personally I think the "good news" would be exactly the opposite, women should have full access to birth control and the choice of using it or not, but a low sperm count is nothing to celebrate as it indicates very bad outcomes long term and is often a sign of environmental factors like endocrine disruption and so on.

[aadbrd]

Everything that reduces population growth in a nonviolent way is welcome news to me.

Not just COVID if you accept Erin Brockovich's analysis.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -brokovich

I welcome our Children of Men future although I could do without being surrounded by soyboys.

[JuanP]

Everything that reduces population growth in a nonviolent way is welcome news to me.

Not just COVID if you accept Erin Brockovich's analysis.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -brokovich

I welcome our Children of Men future although I could do without being surrounded by soyboys.

I have read multiple peer reviewed articles on the subject for decades, so EB's article on The Guardian is absolutely no news to me, though it may be news to you.

But, I give credit when credit is due, and I want to thank you for making a post that actually contributes something to the conversation. I really wish you would do this more often; your contributions would be really welcome. Congratulations on your achievement!

[Ibon]

Reduced sperm counts, lower testosterone levels and shrinking penises all herald a new androgynous age. Combine this with the young generation preferring digital pornography over the smelly organic version and also a significant percentage chopping up their genitals changing their gender and yes we are on an excellent pathway to continue lowering fertility rates heading toward a functional carrying capacity.

Don't worry, somewhere on the other side of the bottleneck men will be men and women will be women.

[Newfie]

So it is good news that sperm count is falling but not good news that women are getting more of a say in baby making (see the last 5 pages)?

Gotta be something there, I just don't know what. LOL

Personally I think the "good news" would be exactly the opposite, women should have full access to birth control and the choice of using it or not, but a low sperm count is nothing to celebrate as it indicates very bad outcomes long term and is often a sign of environmental factors like endocrine disruption and so on.

Tanada,

This is of course true. However, when looking at a potential massive die of ff then the possibility that it will be delayed and diminished has its own attractions.

It is mostly a time game. Birth control and raising women's standards are good things and contribute to the solution. The problem is that it is a long game and if the game timeline laid out in the “carbon budget” is even remotely correct that strategy is moving orders of magnitude too slow for any meaningful effect.

I have never argued against birth control or women’s reproductive empowerment. I have argued that the results take far, far too long to be effective.

To be honest diminished male fertility is also likely to have very little effect on population growth. As any dairy farmer knows one bull can fertilize many cows. And so it is with humans. If the ladies want to bear children they will find a way.

[Newfie]

Ever Given impact on world economy.

https://gcaptain.com/suez-canal-blockag ... ly-chains/

Reminds me of LTG.

[Newfie]

Shipping rates for oil product tankers nearly doubled after the ship became stranded, and efforts to free the giant vessel may take weeks and be complicated by unstable weather, threatening costly delays for companies already dealing with COVID-19 restrictions.

https://gcaptain.com/shipping-rates-cape-of-good-hope/

This grounding is effecting something over 10% of world shipping.

Recent reports indicate things are not going well with recovery efforts. The ship is flooding but how badly is not known. All we know is they have brought in high capacity pumps for the thruster spaces in the bows.

While they will attempt to reflect the ship on the high lunar tides early next week they have also brought in a floating to start lightering the containers. Guesses are about 1/4 of the 20,000 containers (5,000) will need to he removed. One....at....a....time. Even at a large dockside facility watching the big cranes work is very boring, they come off slowly.

In the meantime the ship is hogging and sagging with each tide cycle but also being effected by the current pushing back and forth. She is settling in and weakening. This is a race against time. Hopefully they will he successful.

At least 10 vessels designed to ship animals are parked near the shuttered canal, and several appear to be en route between Romania and Saudi Arabia, according to ship data compiled by Bloomberg. The ones departing the European country are likely carrying sheep, which Saudi Arabia purchases so that the animals can be slaughtered according to religious preferences. Those traveling the other direction could be empty vessels.

At least they are in the Med side where there is water and feed kinda available, maybe.

https://gcaptain.com/sheep-livestock-suez-canal/

[quote] Taiwanese container shipping company Evergreen Marine Corporation has confirmed an order for 20 more ultra-large containerships at Samsung Heavy Industries as salvors continue to try to refloat the Evergreen-chartered MV Ever Given from the Suez Canal.[quote]

These are Ultra class ships. An even bigger class is supposedly under construction... Ultra ULTRA class ships.

/https://gcaptain.com/ever-givens-operator-orders-20-new-ultra-large-ships-at-samsung-heavy-industries/

All this points to us approaching our Limits To Growth and the need for organized DEgrowth.

[JuanP]

And the Chinese are designing Super Duper Ultra Ultra Big Max ships, too, which are longer and wider and go deeper, too!

[Newfie]

Nifty little article on sustainability

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/8/10/i-did-the-math-on-my-towns-cul-de-sacs?

[theluckycountry]

Nifty little article on sustainability

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/8/10/i-did-the-math-on-my-towns-cul-de-sacs?

Yikes! I always knew that suburban streets cost a fortune but that's beyond the pale.
"low density suburban living requires more roads, curbs, sidewalks, and pipes than it pays for in tax revenue—meaning, it’s not solvent."

They will just have to depave, no other solution to that equation. My small town, 3000 odd, has sprawled out into suburbs and acreage suburbs, the latter of which would make those equations look even worse.

The minor highway into town here had a particularly bumpy section and the main-roads rebuilt it, right down to the road base matting. It took months for only about 2 km of dual carriageway to be rebuilt and even then they left section of original roadway in between the new because it was relatively smooth still. Talk about cutting corners. I asked myself why it took so long. Money, or lack of it, pure and simple.

[Newfie]

So it seems like up to 8 providences in India are passing legislation geared toward a 2 child policy.

Not a very good article and I disagree with much, but some interesting details.

https://thedebrief.org/child-end-indias ... le-future/

[vtsnowedin]

Nifty little article on sustainability

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/8/10/i-did-the-math-on-my-towns-cul-de-sacs?

Yikes! I always knew that suburban streets cost a fortune but that's beyond the pale.
"low density suburban living requires more roads, curbs, sidewalks, and pipes than it pays for in tax revenue—meaning, it’s not solvent."

They will just have to depave, no other solution to that equation. My small town, 3000 odd, has sprawled out into suburbs and acreage suburbs, the latter of which would make those equations look even worse.

The minor highway into town here had a particularly bumpy section and the main-roads rebuilt it, right down to the road base matting. It took months for only about 2 km of dual carriageway to be rebuilt and even then they left section of original roadway in between the new because it was relatively smooth still. Talk about cutting corners. I asked myself why it took so long. Money, or lack of it, pure and simple.

Forty odd years of road and utility construction tells me his figures are all wet. For one thing he uses a lifetime of a road as just 17 years but a well constructed street will only need a resurfacing of the pavement not a total reconstruction. Water and sewer lines often last 100 years as well. Then he seems to forget that in a half mile of road there will be at least a dozen houses sharing the cost of the street and the utilities depending on lot sizes and frontage lengths seldom more then 200 feet per house lot. And as there are houses both sides of the street each house only would have to account for half of the frontage length.
Construction costs are high today and going higher but the total cost of access roads and their utilities should not cost more then $30,000 per house and considering the median house today cost well above $300,000 and generates some $6,000 a year in property taxes the costs are well covered.

[Newfie]

The guys numbers were likely bloated to make a point. But he has a point. That $6k in taxes has to pay for a hell of a lot more than the access road.

We have returned to Philly to reno an apartment. City streets, which should be much more well funded as road frontage is under 20 feet, are a general wreck. I regularly find I am getting a headache just from the rough ride. Going to the dump ($125 minimum, 6:00 am appointment, tax funded operation) I went over a bridge. The apron had sunk so that when I hit the sill of the bridge the impact caused my windshield wiper to turn on. (Hope I am using hood enough words to convey.).