[vtsnowedin]

1 We have a UN defined Carbon Budget that shows we need to go to zero carbon in the near future or we will surly engage tipping points.
2 We have a UN defined human population projection that shows population increasing through 2100.

• The vast majority of pollution comes from rich countries like ours, countries whose birth rates are below replacement already. So "population increase" is not the main carbon problem, it is our consumption, not Africans'.




And the roadblock to forcing reduction in our consumption is not "the existing political system" it is Republicans who refuse to admit the situation, in fact politicise it. As uncomfortable as that may be to you there is no denying it.
.

The problem I have with your point of view here is that those other countries are not only increasing population but rapidly moving to a more Western lifestyle and carbon consumption levels. While the USA may cut it's CO2 emissions further and at great expense it will be more then balanced out by that trend so in the end accomplish nothing.
I am not against such improvements as moving to EVs and expanding wind ,solar and tidal power. But would not cancel or stop using things like pipelines until and if the demand for the oil and gas transported through them has actually been removed by successful alternatives. No one sold their horse and buggy until after they had the Model T parked in the barn.

[Ibon]

The problem I have with your point of view here is that those other countries are not only increasing population but rapidly moving to a more Western lifestyle and carbon consumption levels. .

Western lifestyle is not a specific enough term. Europeans for example consume far less energy per capita than Americans. The new middle class in China and India have cars and houses in cul de sacs but the cars and houses are a fraction of the size of your American counterparts. So even though developing countries are "westernizing" they are mostly doing so with a smaller footprint.

[Ibon]

Like tomatoes, we want them pretty and red, round, blemish-free, affordable price..

If you grow your own heirloom varieties then you will never eat another store bought tomatoe.

There is fake news and there are fake tomatoes. And similarly most folks can't recognize the difference !

[Newfie]

^1+. Sooo very true. Something I miss living on a boat is a small garden.

Never had one in the city either. Bummer.

[AdamB]

But "need" isn't what is enshrined in the American constitution, "rights" are. And one of ours is the right to bear arms. No need for it, but if you've got the urge, hey, why not?

Because the more people exercise their right to bear arms, the more likely they are to exercise their right to try to convince a jury that what they did was justified.

That is what courts are for, and I have no objection to them getting involved and making sure the rules are followed. After all, without some basic rules, we would be like Somalia, right? There is even a saying for it, "I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6".

Everyone on the streets of kenosha that night, except the cops, was there looking for trouble. Some found more than they really wanted.

I agree. My recommendation is to avoid large crowds of people bent on breaking the law, be it the burn, loot and murder contingent, or the pseudo-law and order types playing hero.

[Pops]

Pops,

Your Trump derangement syndrome is showing through, you need to come up with some practical argument why climate change is not a problem of the immediate future.

You keep side stepping the misery issue.

More ad homs?
Your strawman is miserable from all the beating, that's sure

Carbon is the danger right now and we're the main producer. Your hoped for famine and war aren't on the horizon.

Still, you continue trying to shift the focus to some ominous wave of Africans, they aren't the problem, we are.

The UN report yesterday said the pledges made at Paris fall far short, that actual carbon reduction needs to happen now, that rich world countries are responsible. It doesn't mention Africa OR population.

But so far, U.N. officials reported Friday, those more ambitious pledges are hardly ambitious enough. Even if countries follow through, their combined impacts would put the world on a path to achieve only a 1 percent reduction in global emissions by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. By contrast, scientists have said that emissions must fall by nearly 50 percent this decade for the world to realistically have a shot at avoiding devastating temperature rise.

On trump's derangement, just the latest example of why he and Rs are a huge impediment to progress, yesterday Biden raised the cost that regulators use to figure the effect carbon has on the economics of various projects. Biden set a temporary number of $51/ton of carbon while he regenerates a group to study the number, Obama had set the price at $37.

What was trump's estimation of the cost of a ton of carbon to the economy you ask?
As low as $1/ton. And he disbanded the group tasked with refining the number. And guess what, repubs applauded.
.

[Pops]

The problem I have with your point of view here is that those other countries are not only increasing population but rapidly moving to a more Western lifestyle and carbon consumption levels. While the USA may cut it's CO2 emissions further and at great expense it will be more then balanced out by that trend so in the end accomplish nothing.
I am not against such improvements as moving to EVs and expanding wind ,solar and tidal power. But would not cancel or stop using things like pipelines until and if the demand for the oil and gas transported through them has actually been removed by successful alternatives. No one sold their horse and buggy until after they had the Model T parked in the barn.

The model T was a big improvement over the horse, faster, cheaper, stronger, went farther, hauled more and no manure. And FFs are still generally preferable to EVs and RE except for their "manure". So there is not the obvious incentive to get the better product on the individual level, hence coercion is required to transition— if this society is to survive anyway.

I also think you inadvertently hit on a solution. If the Western Lifestyle becomes PV, EV, efficiency, conservation etc then developing countries both benefit themselves and us by our example and R&D. A good example of how 3rd world countries can leapfrog technologies is some never did have a hardwired telephone system, they went straight to cell service.

GW is globally existential, it isn't elective, it has no borders. I know it is not natural but if you look at the world as a single unit rather than as us vs them, then improving vehicle efficiency or education or birth control in Mozambique and Mississippi are exactly the same.
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[diemos]

There is even a saying for it, "I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6".

As any lawyer will tell you, juries are unpredictable and there's no guarantee they're going to see things your way. Better to avoid getting mixed up with juries.

[AdamB]

There is even a saying for it, "I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6".

As any lawyer will tell you, juries are unpredictable and there's no guarantee they're going to see things your way. Better to avoid getting mixed up with juries.

Again, quite true. But given the choice between that and being dead, I (and anyone else, as the saying goes) would prefer the jury. Including you, so it is a big disingenuous pretending that in a potentially lethal fight or flight moment, you would just stand there, sigh, and allow yourself to be ended. Biology tends to get in the way of that conscious decision.

In either case, your incoming fist example is still a poor one. Within some jurisdictions (the good ones anyway), there is zero requirement of proportionality in a defensive response against the perpetrator.

[diemos]

Including you, so it is a big disingenuous pretending that in a potentially lethal fight or flight moment, you would just stand there, sigh, and allow yourself to be ended. Biology tends to get in the way of that conscious decision.

The biology is to freeze, because you don't know what's going on. These moments tend to come out of nowhere and you're not prepared for them. The other day I was crossing the intersection and a can landed beside me from behind. Took a second to realize that the homeless guy I had just walked past had chucked it at my head. Luckily his aim sucked. No interaction before hand to indicate that he was a threat or to justify what he did, except that I was ignoring his existence.

Sort of by definition, if there's enough time to evaluate the threat, then it's a threat being used to force cooperation. And then there's enough time to evaluate which is the bigger threat, the guy that's threatening me or that the DA will try to send me to prison if I defend myself.

One of the unfortunate realities of being in public, with people who have much less to lose than myself.

[AdamB]

Including you, so it is a big disingenuous pretending that in a potentially lethal fight or flight moment, you would just stand there, sigh, and allow yourself to be ended. Biology tends to get in the way of that conscious decision.

The biology is to freeze, because you don't know what's going on. These moments tend to come out of nowhere and you're not prepared for them.

Sure. And the gap between that instant and action depends on the quality of your synapses, decision making capabilities and training. A fist coming towards one's nose does not cause anyone familiar with the action to stand there, slack jawed and stupid, until it hits them.

The other day I was crossing the intersection and a can landed beside me from behind. Took a second to realize that the homeless guy I had just walked past had chucked it at my head. Luckily his aim sucked. No interaction before hand to indicate that he was a threat or to justify what he did, except that I was ignoring his existence.

It was a weird situation, and therefore required that "freeze" to interpret exactly what had happened. Nothing wrong with that. That fist headed my way however, is not the same. Unless of course we are taking being sucker punched from behind, in which case that is something else altogether, and still doesn't involve a freeze of any significant time.

Sort of by definition, if there's enough time to evaluate the threat, then it's a threat being used to force cooperation.

Again, I agree. And am happy to operate within the laws that allow my disproportionate response announcing my refusal to cooperate. And then depend on a jury to follow the laws as explained to them when deciding whether or not that response was appropriate.

And then there's enough time to evaluate which is the bigger threat, the guy that's threatening me or that the DA will try to send me to prison if I defend myself.

And you can spend as many hours or days debating your answer to that question, and then suffer the consequences of your inability to make a decision in the time allotted. We aren't talking about a situation where the perpetrator stops and allows a thorough evaluation of cost/benefit. Swing a fist at me in the manner as described, and suffer the consequences. Your point is absolutely apropos, but once you've decided to train for that situation, considered the factors involved, you make your decision BEFORE the situation arises.

One of the unfortunate realities of being in public, with people who have much less to lose than myself.

Sure. With me it was window washers in Houston, who I refused to give a $1 to after they smeared marsh bug guts all over my car window with their sleeves rather than cleaning the window. Quite irritated when I hit the wiper button to cure the mess they had made, more irritated I didn't pay the extortion money.

[diemos]

Sure. With me it was window washers in Houston, who I refused to give a $1 to after they smeared marsh bug guts all over my car window with their sleeves rather than cleaning the window. Quite irritated when I hit the wiper button to cure the mess they had made, more irritated I didn't pay the extortion money.

And exactly what did you do in that life or death situation? Did you roll down the window, pull out your piece and blow them away? Did you run them down with your car? Or did you just fume and maybe flip them off.

Sorry boss, but you strike me as a keyboard warrior who has all these fantasies about what you're gonna do if the situation ever hits. Why don't you tell us about the time you were actually in a life or death situation and defended yourself. How when the cops showed up they nodded and let you go because it was clearly self defense. How you didn't sweat bullets wondering if the DA was going to charge you. How the activists didn't show up to paint you as a murderous loose cannon. How you didn't get let go from your job because they didn't want the publicity.

[AdamB]

Sure. With me it was window washers in Houston, who I refused to give a $1 to after they smeared marsh bug guts all over my car window with their sleeves rather than cleaning the window. Quite irritated when I hit the wiper button to cure the mess they had made, more irritated I didn't pay the extortion money.

And exactly what did you do in that life or death situation? Did you roll down the window, pull out your piece and blow them away? Did you run them down with your car? Or did you just fume and maybe flip them off.

What an absolutely idiot idea, confusing bums doing what bums do with a life threatening situation. It is a good thing that you would rather suffer the consequences of whatever someone chooses to inflict on you rather than take responsibility for your own safety, you'd end up in jail for sheer stupid in a heartbeat.

Sorry boss, but you strike me as a keyboard warrior who has all these fantasies about what you're gonna do if the situation ever hits.

Sounds like you are describing more the good ol' days around here, when folks were gaming how to make their own claymores to fend off the suburban hordes fleeing the big cities and whatnot. Easy to confuse that with any reasonable preparations for things far more likely to happen. Like getting an EV to get around peak oil generated high oil cost issues, or making sure that run of the mill home intrusions are handled in an appropriate way.

Bums throwing cans or washing windows being a life or death situation...talk about someone who shouldn't be allowed within range of nail clippers, let alone a firearm. Geez.

[diemos]

Apparently sarcasm escapes you.

[AdamB]

Apparently sarcasm escapes you.

Sarcasm doesn't come through so well in the written word. For example, there are people who actually defended peak oil as a world ending event on this very site, some decade or more back. As they said economic and geologically ignorant things, they weren't being sarcastic, they meant it, although they might now want their words not to be used against them, and claim it was just sarcasm.

So, some people might actually be so ignorant of the rules and expected behavior of modern society as to think exactly what you wrote, who am I to assume you were being sarcastic or lying or are ignorant of the topics under discussion? I just figure you mean what you write until you say otherwise, or in the case of the Happy McPeaksters, reality proves that some folks know stuff, and others just make shit up and pretend it is true.

[diemos]

For example, there are people who actually defended peak oil as a world ending event on this very site, some decade or more back.

This fossil fuel consuming civilization will end. A different civilization will take its place. What the civilization will be like ... who can say?

So, some people might actually be so ignorant of the rules and expected behavior of modern society as to think exactly what you wrote, who am I to assume you were being sarcastic or lying or are ignorant of the topics under discussion?

And yet you thought that was so far outside the norms of societal behavior as to be idiotic. And yes, a bum throwing a full can of soda at your head is a life threatening situation, one smearing bugs on your car is not.

Although you used that to neatly sidestep admitting that you've never used deadly force to defend yourself in a life threatening situation.

[AdamB]

For example, there are people who actually defended peak oil as a world ending event on this very site, some decade or more back.

This fossil fuel consuming civilization will end.

Of course fossil fuel consumption will END, Hubbert himself said that. But peak oil isn't about ENDING, it is about less. What's the matter with you, are you a newbie to this topic? Hubbert, in the seminal work that peakers used to construct their rapture scenarios, didn't title it "End of the world wet dreams for the geologically challenged", the beginning of the title to that work in 1956 was "NUCLEAR ENERGY.....".

And in 2005-2008, the tense wasn't "will end", it was "is ending". If you followed some of the fools still posting here, they were saying stuff like "has ended". The one thing proven since the 2005-2008 time period is you don't take any of the suckers who claimed it was happening back then and allow them to rinse and recycle as your tense indicates.

A different civilization will take its place. What the civilization will be like ... who can say?

Sure. Alternatively, who cares? The good news is that with peak demand having more credibility now than recycling bad resource economic ideas from the peanut gallery malthusians, we can decide what we want it to be, rather than having some important constraint forced upon us as we build the new future out.

So, some people might actually be so ignorant of the rules and expected behavior of modern society as to think exactly what you wrote, who am I to assume you were being sarcastic or lying or are ignorant of the topics under discussion?

And yet you thought that was so far outside the norms of societal behavior as to be idiotic.

I thought you wanting to engage in a potentially lethal fight with homeless people expressing irritation at your richness was idiotic. And sure, that kind of attitude is outside the norms of societal behavior I am familiar with.

And yes, a bum throwing a full can of soda at your head is a life threatening situation, one smearing bugs on your car is not.

I told you already, you better understand where disproportionate self defensive measures are allowed, and where they are not, because someone throwing a can a soda ( which implies both distance and nothing resembling substantial physical harm) no more qualifies as a self defensive trigger than grandma trying to gum your finger off without her dentures in. Sure, a woke pansy might be scared by it, and react inappropriately without a clue as to what happens next in the legal system, but their ignorance of their rights and responsibilities as citizens is neither my fault nor concern. Unless I'm on the jury when someone goes to properly convict them for being a woke pansy of course.

Although you used that to neatly sidestep admitting that you've never used deadly force to defend yourself in a life threatening situation.

I don't sidestep anything, I just didn't answer directly. I freely admit I've never used deadly force to defend myself in a life threatening situation. I also freely admit that I have used a firearm only once in my life to stop a felony from occurring (two burglars in the house, right after I graduated high school). Also, I've only had firearms pointed at me three times in my life where I was threatened, or people on my crew were, all work related. Who do you think gets the call when oil company workers get threatened by landowners? They call the supervisor who's job it is to deal with nutballs, and the honestly irritated. I am quite comfortable with being able to sniff out the differences between bums and cans of soda and serious folks threatening me with everything from baseball bats to centerfire rifles or shotguns. Of those 3 events, only one went to court, and the judge was quite harsh on the poor old guy. So is a bum throwing a can of soda the best you have experience with for soiling yourself and pretending it is a life threatening situation?

[diemos]

I also freely admit that I have used a firearm only once in my life to stop a felony from occurring (two burglars in the house, right after I graduated high school). Also, I've only had firearms pointed at me three times in my life where I was threatened, or people on my crew were, all work related.

Oh, I'm perfectly happy to count that. You've led a richer life than I have. The worst I can come up with is soldiers in Africa trying to extract bribes. Which, at the time, I was young and naive enough not to fully appreciate the danger I was in. And then there was also the village we were traveling through where a kid ran out in front of our motorcycle. The locals didn't have the concept of traffic accidents and were known to form mobs and beat people to death over them. We didn't hit the kid but he fell over and was frightened and crying and when the sound of the crowd started surging we booked out of there.

[AdamB]

I also freely admit that I have used a firearm only once in my life to stop a felony from occurring (two burglars in the house, right after I graduated high school). Also, I've only had firearms pointed at me three times in my life where I was threatened, or people on my crew were, all work related.

Oh, I'm perfectly happy to count that. You've led a richer life than I have.

I wouldn't call it "richer". I had a job. I did it. It has led to many interesting life stories, but I'm betting you and most of the undoubtedly older folks on this forum have those, on a large swath of topics. My cool stories come from being raised in the country on a small hobby farm, a career in the oil field and maybe cool car and motorcycle stories. Guns are only a hobby.

The worst I can come up with is soldiers in Africa trying to extract bribes. Which, at the time, I was young and naive enough not to fully appreciate the danger I was in.

My college buddy joined the Peace Corps. He got stopped at a roadblock in some small African country, got scared, and ran. They shot him 3 times as he was running away. I was once offered a tripling of salary to work offshore in Nigeria, the alternative being laid off. I took the lay off.

And then there was also the village we were traveling through where a kid ran out in front of our motorcycle. The locals didn't have the concept of traffic accidents and were known to form mobs and beat people to death over them. We didn't hit the kid but he fell over and was frightened and crying and when the sound of the crowd started surging we booked out of there.

I can imagine. There are places in this world where the rules of the First Worlders can be quite comforting, compared to the more dog eat dog regions.

[Newfie]

Article on Chinas ability to feed itself.

Also points to why I think there is a possible conflict between China and India in the offing. Perhaps China will align with Pakistan; the water and food axis?

Anyway, it all sounds very much like the LTG scenario.

https://outline.com/usmBRv