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Deep water oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Deep water oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 04:01:27

Lets assume that current GoM oil will prove to be a feasible project.
How much oil (in estimate) could be found in similar other areas on the Earth?

What about drilling of ocean floor (lets assume, that we will master technology necessary to carry on such drilling)?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

Any other ideas?
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 06:05:30

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Lets assume that current GoM oil will prove to be a feasible project.
How much oil (in estimate) could be found in similar other areas on the Earth?

What about drilling of ocean floor (lets assume, that we will master technology necessary to carry on such drilling)?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

Any other ideas?


What? Should we just start making wild guesses based on zero hard data? Okay, I guess we will find up to an additional 3 trillion barrels far under the sea and a great distance from land, and this will be enough to defer PO by 20-years to 2037. The cost to extract this oil will be $75 a barrel in today's money, and by that time benchmark WTI will be a long distant memory, but the new deep water medium sweet cabernet low fat grade (DWG on the Worldex Exchange) will be $250 a barrel in today's cash. Can anyone prove me wrong?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?


When was the first Golden Age of deep water drilling leading to a Renaissance?
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby venky » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 06:39:07

Hey this is fun!! Let me try.

I predict that oil as we know it today will peak in 2012 and goes into decline at 3% a year. There is panic; the stock market crashes and there is and economic depression. However a crash program in alternatives is implemented by governments around the world which alleviates the crisis somewhat, but continued depletion prevents economic recovery. However then due to the high prices and new technology; deep water oil reserves in the order of 5 trillion barrels are found. But having learnt our lesson mankind strictly follows a policy of carbon quotas

Economic recovery finally takes place in 2025 thanks to the new reserves and global warming is also solved thanks to the carbon quotas. And we all live happily ever after!!!
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby Ayame » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 07:16:51

We have now picked all the low hanging easy to reach fruit and are moving on up the tree where the fruit is harder to grab, is more expensive to grab (need ladders) and we can't get it down into the baskets as fast as before.

Welcome to diminishing returns. And if you have read Tainters book then you would be scared.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 09:37:13

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Lets assume that current GoM oil will prove to be a feasible project.
How much oil (in estimate) could be found in similar other areas on the Earth?

What about drilling of ocean floor (lets assume, that we will master technology necessary to carry on such drilling)?

What about possible renessance of oil industry by deep water drilling projects?

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?

Any other ideas?


I expect deepwater oil will do nothing to defer the date of world peak oil. It will be produced too late and at too low a rate. It will perhaps put a bump or two on the downslope of the world oil production curve, just as Alaska put a big bump on the downlsope of the US production curve.
People will only know the production decline era as a bad time, they will not appreciate how much worse it could have been without the influx of deepwater production.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 10:27:17

NeoPeasant wrote:People will only know the production decline era as a bad time, they will not appreciate how much worse it could have been without the influx of deepwater production.


In the end, does it really matter whether they appreciate how much worse it could have been? There is enough oil there to keep the combines rolling, even if we end up riding busses and scooters to the grocery store; there'll still be 20 pound bags of rice selling for less than $10; and 5 pound bags of flour selling for a buck and change. As long as that is the reality in the US, there will be no *true* suffering.


I was about to write about, would Americans notice something about some other country's living circumstances... silly me.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby CARVER » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 11:32:57

venky wrote:Hey this is fun!! Let me try.

I predict that oil as we know it today will peak in 2012 and goes into decline at 3% a year.


I predict that oil will peak in 2016. There will be a lot more deep water oil, however this will be due to rising sea levels caused by global warming :)
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 11:42:13

rwwff wrote:there'll still be 20 pound bags of rice selling for less than $10; and 5 pound bags of flour selling for a buck and change. As long as that is the reality in the US, there will be no *true* suffering.


Will Americans come to appreciate the difference between true suffering and imaginary suffering? To me, if my family members remain warm, clean and safe and are not wasting away from deficiencies in their diet, we are not suffering. To others, if they are forced out of their routine of chatting on the cell phone and drinking a Starbucks latte while they commute to their distant jobs in their Excursions, they are experiencing true suffering and will demand that somebody "do something".
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 12:15:41

I am thinking along the lines of Mr. Bill. Perhaps the current cost of GOM deep sea oil is only $40 (at least that what I see quoted from energy industry sources). However I would bet that does not include the risk of hurricanes, insurance and/or protection from terrorism/war, and – almost unnoticed – earthquake damage. Locating GOM deep sea drilling in one of the worst hurricane zones in the world seems to have great risks. Also industry is basing its costs on current, average costs – which may be well less than marginal costs in a few years. Anyway, altogether in the long run the cost of deep water GOM oil could exceed the market price. That would seem to make it valuable only for the military or government - where profits are not considered.

I suppose it’s possible there are other deep water drilling sites yet to be discovered, but I suspect there will be similar difficulties getting the oil out. So altogether, this won’t postpone PO – but maybe postpone the end of oil way down the road.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby PeakOilPrincess » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 19:05:07

CARVER wrote:There will be a lot more deep water oil, however this will be due to rising sea levels caused by global warming




Good point :)
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 12 Sep 2006, 19:12:26

Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?


One new billion barrels of reserves pushed peak oil back by 5.5 days. Thus, you need 66.36 billion barrels of new oil to push the peak back by a year. To push it back by 100 years, you'd need 6.636 trillion barrels of oil and for 200 years, 13.272 trillion barrels.

Get out that shovel and start digging if you want peak to be pushed back 100 years.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby sicophiliac » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 00:10:01

CARVER wrote:
venky wrote:Hey this is fun!! Let me try.

I predict that oil as we know it today will peak in 2012 and goes into decline at 3% a year.


I predict that oil will peak in 2016. There will be a lot more deep water oil, however this will be due to rising sea levels caused by global warming :)


Haha, lets not forgot once all the ice starts sliding off Antarctica we can start exploring for oil there.. thatll help out even more !
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby mekrob » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 00:56:38

Haha, lets not forgot once all the ice starts sliding off Antarctica we can start exploring for oil there.. thatll help out even more !


How much oil is there? I can't remember any sources, but from a few topics on here, there might be 100 billion barrels, and let's just suppose that is true. Even then, that's only 550 extra days to prepare for peak. Only a year and a half! Whew, we dodged that Peak Oil bullet, didn't we?
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby venky » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 01:02:51

mekrob wrote:
Haha, lets not forgot once all the ice starts sliding off Antarctica we can start exploring for oil there.. thatll help out even more !


How much oil is there? I can't remember any sources, but from a few topics on here, there might be 100 billion barrels, and let's just suppose that is true. Even then, that's only 550 extra days to prepare for peak. Only a year and a half! Whew, we dodged that Peak Oil bullet, didn't we?


Okay, lets assume that there is some sort of a liquids peak early next decade. My post was light hearted, but suppose that they are some really big finds after that; not enough to increase production to previous levels but very substantial all the same. Perhaps, mankind would use those reserves wisely then and implement strict quotas?
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby mekrob » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 01:11:16

Perhaps, mankind would use those reserves wisely then and implement strict quotas?


If mankind wanted to do the right thing and prepare for the future, then they'd do that now. If you get rid of 3 mpd out of 21 mpd, then you're only losing 1/7th of your needs. But after peak, then you'll already been down a few mpd so then taking MORE out would be idiotic. 3 mpd then out of 18 mpd would be 1/6th. Well, you get my point which is: when things are so plentiful now and we know we will face hard times ahead of us and we aren't inflicting small wounds on us now to save us for the future, then what makes you think we'd do that when supplies are already decreasing? That would just be rubbing salt in the wounds.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 13 Sep 2006, 02:51:04

mekrob wrote:
Could it deffer PO for next 100 or 200 years?


One new billion barrels of reserves pushed peak oil back by 5.5 days. Thus, you need 66.36 billion barrels of new oil to push the peak back by a year. To push it back by 100 years, you'd need 6.636 trillion barrels of oil and for 200 years, 13.272 trillion barrels.

Get out that shovel and start digging if you want peak to be pushed back 100 years.


It does not sound so crazy, as you imply.
Our total reserves of recoverable oil within land and shallow waters were at least 2 trillions barrels, half of which had been already produced.
Because deep waters are ca 2 X larger in area, it suggest, that drilling ocean floor would provide at least twice as much (eg 4 trillions of barrels) provided that probability of finding oil on ocean floor is about the same like on the land/shallow waters.
Rockdoc could probably say something more about suspected abundance of oil under ocean floor.
I accept, that this oil would be more expensive, but say $120 per barrel is still not much.
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Re: Deep water oil

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 04:34:14

I was looking at one of the speculative stocks that I own on NASA's worldwind, they have a concession in Indonesia. I thought, man the shelf drops off fast there. I ought to sell this before the others realize there can't be anything there. Then along comes this deep water GoM discovery. The point is that anywhere that sediments have piled up for millions of years there can be oil, even under two miles of water.

What is going to be difficult is to economically recover that oil. The GoM discovery will test many procedures for the first time. If the oil industry can develop a systematic approach to deep water then prospects like my liitle co. will be developed. I don't think this will forestall the peak one bit. Because of the costs involved and the market situation the economic impetus alone will enforce the peak.
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Prospects for Deep Water Oil

Unread postby ltplayer » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 15:22:37

What are the prospects for deep water oil finds? I read somewhere (and I've been trying to find the book all day) that deeper than a certain level oil basically cooked or could not form or something like that. The depth seemed pretty shallow but I can't remember the exact number.

So I'm wondering if I was mislead by the book, or if I'm missing something.
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Re: Prospects for Deep Water Oil

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 16:13:31

Nothing in the deep water but deep water. The amount of energy needed to lift oil a certain distance exceeds the energy in the oil. That is until we rediscover slavery.
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