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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 15:19:54

(Mods, please merge if a thread on this was already started and I missed it...thanks)

All crops are destroyed, sounds worse than Puerto Rico.

https://www.rt.com/news/418704-tonga-cy ... struction/

“Here are some photos we were sent from relatives and friends in Tonga. It was a difficult night, and the road to recovery will be long. But we are grateful for our strong communities..." #CycloneGita ”

https://twitter.com/350Pacific/status/9 ... 1699636224
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CAT 5 Cyclones 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 04:18:18

First Category 5 Storm of 2018: Tropical Cyclone Marcus Northwest of Australia
Dr. Jeff Masters · March 21, 2018, 5:09 PM EDT

Image

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/first ... -australia

Above: Tropical Cyclone Marcus as seen at 6Z (2 am EDT) March 21, 2018, off the northwest coast of Australia. At the time, Marcus was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The first Category 5 storm of 2018 is Tropical Cyclone Marcus, which intensified to a low-end Cat 5 with 160 mph
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 May 2018, 14:26:46

Hurricane season may be even worse in 2018 after a harrowing 2017

8O

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... owing-2017

The US may have to brace itself for another harrowing spate of hurricanes this year, with forecasts of an active 2018 season coming amid new research that shows powerful Atlantic storms are intensifying far more rapidly than they did 30 years ago...

...natural variation will combine with escalating warming in the oceans and atmosphere, caused by the burning of fossil fuels by humans, to produce stronger hurricanes in the future. A warm ocean surface, combined with consistent wind patterns, contribute to the formation of fiercer, if not more numerous, hurricanes.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 May 2018, 20:21:38

Will be interesting with our boat on the hard in Grenada. GrenDa is usually a safe spot, South of normal hurricane alley. But it does get hit occassionally. About once every 50 years.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 23 May 2018, 08:11:45

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... estructive


Global warming made Hurricane Harvey more destructive

Hot oceans fueled Hurricane Harvey, generating more intense rainfall


This was already pretty clear last year, but scientific attribution studies to unequivocally show that a single event was influenced in a certain direction by GW take a lot of time, and this is further evidence of what kind of mayhem we are heading into (and of course much worse), probably even this year again.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 23 May 2018, 12:54:44

Newfie wrote:Will be interesting with our boat on the hard in Grenada. GrenDa is usually a safe spot, South of normal hurricane alley. But it does get hit occassionally. About once every 50 years.


IIRC, that means a boat in a cradle for (at least) hull scraping/painting. Is that all, or something more serious?
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 May 2018, 16:48:54

Yeah, boat out of the water, sitting in stands, will get strapped down. Sounds like there is a bi of weather brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. Not likely to be a hurricane but maybe a T.S.

We’ve been doing maintenance for the last week. Lots of little rust soots here and there. Some interior painting. Change oil. Argue with the yard staff about some welding work they are to do. Take the sails down and to the loft for normal repairs. Other little odds and ends. Been busy.

We got done today, but still have a couple of weeks work when we come back in the fall. Then scrape and pain bottom and fix what broke while we were not sing it! That ain’t fair, that stuff breaks when not being used, but it’s reality.

Bit all in all we have had very few problems on the trip. And exhaust mixer elbow but I had a spare. December 15 to now, all pretty good. I happy

We fly to Philly for a couple of weeks on Friday. Then we drive to Newfoundland for he summer and I get to paint and fix that boat before launching. At least I replaced the deck and painted everything last year.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 May 2018, 16:52:34

Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Wed May 23 2018 ...

A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 24 May 2018, 15:19:16

I’m betting they have a 35-65% chance of being almost right.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.


http://gcaptain.com/noaa-predicts-near- ... n-in-2018/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 May 2018, 08:04:37

On Friday, the disturbance heading for the Gulf was being given a 90 percent chance of developing into a depression or storm during the next two days and a 90 percent chance during the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 May 2018, 10:45:03

Depression is now Subtropical Storm Alberto:

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 May 2018, 18:22:58

“In the past 120 yrs, just 5 hurricane-strength cyclones have made landfall in Oman—1898, 1959, 2007, 2010—and today. (Chapala, in 2015, was the last to hit the Arabian Peninsula—and the only one ever to hit Yemen)
So... 6 total in this part of the world, 4 in the past 11 years.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 3158267905
“By the end of the century, @MIT research suggests that this trend toward more frequent cyclones in the Arabian Peninsula could spread to the Persian Gulf -- where there has never been a hurricane-strength storm in recorded history.
http://news.mit.edu/2015/grey-swan-cycl ... surge-0831

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 4340005888
“Live blog from Oman -- the latest on #MekunuCyclone:
http://timesofoman.com/article/135085

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 6793968640
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 27 May 2018, 16:26:40

Cyclone shuts Oman water production plant


Sembcorp Salalah Water and Power Co SSPW.OM, which operates an electricity generation and seawater desalination plant in Oman, said its water production plant had been temporarily shut down because of rough seas as a result of a tropical storm.

Cyclone Mekunu hit southern Yemen and the coast of neighboring Oman over the weekend, leaving several dead and others missing.

The company said its preliminary assessment is that the impact is not expected to be material, however the “total impact of the cyclone on plant operations cannot yet be precisely assessed at this point in time.” ...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oman ... SKCN1IS04L

More here, with context:


Weird cyclonic storms Sagar & Mekunu in the Arabian Gulf.
Sagar was the furthest recorded west and killed 34 in Somalia as of now.

Mekunu dumped twice the yearly amount of rain on Oman/Yemen.

1 storm is weird, 2 is weirder
https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/24/ ... n-on-oman/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 27 May 2018, 17:29:35

And yes, Alberto is still heading for the southern US:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/27/us/weath ... index.html
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 08 Jun 2018, 18:23:18

Every now and then a real scientist using real observations and not "modelling" speaks up to set the record straight.

“I’m concerned when hurricanes are used as the poster child for global warming,” said Dr. Chris Landsea, who is the science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

“It’s very difficult to say how hurricanes are now versus 100 years ago. We’re still challenged today in knowing how strong a hurricane is, even in 2018,” said Landsea.

Landsea understands the climate is changing and the oceans are warming, but doesn’t see a direct link to the frequency or intensity of storms.

“There’s periods where it’s busy and quiet and busy and quiet, but no trend,” said Landsea, “There’s no statistical change over a 130-year period. Since 1970, the number of hurricanes globally is flat. I haven’t seen anything that suggests that the hurricane intensity is going to change dramatically. It looks like a pretty tiny change to how strong hurricanes will be. It’s not zero, but it’s in the noise level. It’s very small.”


https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-in ... 64611.html
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 09 Jun 2018, 10:14:38

There is not predicted to be an increase in frequency of hurricanes, but there is in fact a clear increase in intensity, and more predicted.

Fore example:

https://earther.com/a-new-arctic-cyclon ... 1826679817


A New Arctic Cyclone Could Be Among the Most Powerful On Record

Also note:

"recent research suggests that there has been an increase in intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s"

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/s ... xvvAIWTJRk

The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s... Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.


https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report ... hurricanes
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 01:12:02

Hurricanes Are Moving Slower – And That’s a Huge Problem


Tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons, are now crawling across the planet at a slower pace than they did decades ago, dragging out and amplifying their devastation, new research published Wednesday shows.

At the same time, related research published just last month suggests that warming temperatures from climate change will slow storms more in the future.

While having a cyclone travel with less speed may seem like a good thing, it’s actually just the opposite. Wind speeds within the storm remain high, but the whole system itself moves slower across the landscape, allowing punishing rains to linger longer over communities.

Taken together, these two studies suggest that climate change is already increasing the dangers posed by hurricanes and typhoons in far more ways than previously thought, and it will continue to compound many of the hazards, especially the threat of severe flooding.

“Nothing good comes out of a slowing storm,” says James Kossin, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Center for Weather and Climate in Madison, Wisconsin, and author of the first paper, published today in the journal Nature. “It can increase storm surge. It can increase the amount of time that structures are subjected to strong wind. And it increases rainfall.”


https://news.nationalgeographic.com/201 ... e-science/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 11:14:05

dohboi wrote:There is not predicted to be an increase in frequency of hurricanes, but there is in fact a clear increase in intensity, and more predicted.

Fore example:

https://earther.com/a-new-arctic-cyclon ... 1826679817


A New Arctic Cyclone Could Be Among the Most Powerful On Record

Also note:

"recent research suggests that there has been an increase in intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s"

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/s ... xvvAIWTJRk

The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s... Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.


https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report ... hurricanes


It really depends on who you want to believe, you seem to choose climate modelers and politicized government groups and magazines that predict future doom and gloom. I prefer to go with scientists that look at observations and state facts about the way things are. I'll re-post the part you missed or ignored.

“It’s very difficult to say how hurricanes are now versus 100 years ago. We’re still challenged today in knowing how strong a hurricane is, even in 2018,” said Landsea.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 18:25:01

jaw, from the very article you linked to:

Dr. Kerry Emanual, an MIT professor, and ... one of the world’s leading scientists studying hurricanes... argues the influence of climate change is much more pronounced.

“Frequency, we see nothing at all. And the best most honest answer is – we don’t know,” said Emanual. “The intensity is a little bit different. Models are more unanimous about that. 30 years ago, a 210 mph hurricane would not have even been possible. Today it’s possible. It might be rare, but you have one where you didn’t have one before. The category fours and fives seem to be increasing.”
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 20:40:46

dohboi wrote:jaw, from the very article you linked to:

Dr. Kerry Emanual, an MIT professor, and ... one of the world’s leading scientists studying hurricanes... argues the influence of climate change is much more pronounced.

“Frequency, we see nothing at all. And the best most honest answer is – we don’t know,” said Emanual. “The intensity is a little bit different. Models are more unanimous about that. 30 years ago, a 210 mph hurricane would not have even been possible. Today it’s possible. It might be rare, but you have one where you didn’t have one before. The category fours and fives seem to be increasing.”


I read it, and again we are back to using models, not real data. Hurricane intensity change can't be proved or disproved if we can't actually measure intensity, it's the problem with climate science, too much reliance on models, not enough long term data.
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