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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 09:09:35

Newfie wrote:Ghung,

OK, I concede the point. I CAN be done well, it just isn’t always done well.


Codes can address that. It is more expensive than standard concrete, but not prohibitively so. The main problem area is at the water line and these structures will only have their foundations in the water in the rare event of a very high tide or storm surge. Reducing the permeability of the concrete is important so, above ground, the concrete can be sealed and below ground, leave-in-place forms can be used to separate the concrete from the ground water, maybe something like this:

Image

Drill holes, shove these down, pump grout around the outside, put in the rebar and pump them full of the appropriate concrete. Leave them a couple of feet proud of the ground and pour in attachment points. Engineered correctly, that's all they are; attachment points for structures. Above ground, a variety of platforms could be built. The ugly exposed forms/pilings can be faced with stone or wood, or whatever.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 19:15:27

Yeas, not unlike radio and sign foundations. I’ve had experience with 70 year old foundations decaying, fitting platforms, and even large foundations only 30 years old cracking.

But you could also do it with helical foundations topped with concrete.

It’s just the most common way is wood pilings.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 19:18:09

Link to Leslie about to hit Portugal 2 days ago. I guess it wasn’t a big deal?

https://gcaptain.com/leslie-to-hit-port ... ince-1842/

Other than this the Atlantic seems to be clear.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 19:37:06

Wood pilings are wonderful; been used for thousands of years, but the best are (were?) old growth trees, and later, treated with some nasty stuff. Either way, those structures have to be maintained as well. I was on the Johnnie Mercer's Pier on Wrightsville Beach, pictured above, when it was still wood and they were working on it then. It lasted ~60 years until Bertha and Fran took it out.

Anyway, the discussion will probably turn to how long we can conjure up the collective wealth to maintain this sort of thing. Civilizations have held their beach fronts one way or another, until they couldn't. And hillbillies like me grow tired of subsidizing the coastal lifestyles (as he pops another wild-caught Carolina shrimp on a cracker).
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 20:19:03

https://news.gallup.com/poll/231530/glo ... hifts.aspx

Here's How That One Mexico Beach House Survived Hurricane Michael

It took reinforced concrete walls, 40-foot pilings driven deep into the ground and other factors to keep the house safe in the storm...steel cables held the roof in place...


Meanwhile:

Over 1,000 Remain Missing A Week After Hurricane Michael


https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hu ... 8b5873c701

PANAMA CITY BEACH, Fla. (Reuters) ―
More than a thousand people were still missing on Wednesday a week after Hurricane Michael flattened communities across the Florida Panhandle, killing at least 27.

Teams made up of hundreds of volunteers with the Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue organization were searching for more than 1,135 people in Florida who lost contact with friends and family, Matthew Marchetti, co-founder of Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue.

Most of those missing are from Panama City and many are elderly, disabled, impoverished, or live alone, Marchetti said.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 00:12:48

I don't have enough knowledge of the mechanics of building strength to know if more buildings would have survived with the higher building standards, but it is interesting the BBC reported:
The area where the storm hit worst, in Florida's Panhandle region, do not have building code standards as strict as in other areas of the state.

Swathes of houses were completely obliterated in Mexico Beach - an area described as "ground zero" for the storm's heavy winds and storm surges.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45893486
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 07:56:58

EdwinSm wrote:I don't have enough knowledge of the mechanics of building strength to know if more buildings would have survived with the higher building standards, but it is interesting the BBC reported:
The area where the storm hit worst, in Florida's Panhandle region, do not have building code standards as strict as in other areas of the state.

Swathes of houses were completely obliterated in Mexico Beach - an area described as "ground zero" for the storm's heavy winds and storm surges.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45893486



Many of the houses that didn't survive were older; grandfathered in without new codes compliance. And, yes, the codes in the Panhandle area are not as stringent as they are in the southern part of the State:

After Hurricane Michael, A Call For Stricter Building Codes In Florida's Panhandle

.......Florida has some of the nation's toughest building codes. But in the Panhandle, you wouldn't know it. The rules are looser there — allowing construction that couldn't stand up to Michael's 155 mph winds.....

.....One reason for the extreme destruction in Mexico Beach and in other communities on the Panhandle is that there is old, substandard construction that predates the building code, according to Craig Fugate, the former head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and a longtime emergency management official in Florida. "That's what I call the old Florida," he says. "It's not a bunch of high-rises. It's not a lot of new construction. This is multigenerational Florida families. Many of them were descendants of folks who fished the areas."

After Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Florida took a serious look at its building codes. In South Florida, Miami-Dade and Broward counties adopted strict standards, requiring storm shutters and reinforced concrete block construction for all new buildings. It was all aimed at making structures able to withstand winds up to 175 mph.

When Florida revised its statewide building code, says structural engineer John Pistorino, officials decided not to require South Florida's 175 mph wind-speed standard elsewhere in the state. "Unfortunately, because it is based on probability of storms in the past and all of that," Pistorino, who helped develop the standards, says, "it sort of goes down as you go further north in Florida." Historically, there have been fewer intense hurricanes on the Panhandle than elsewhere in the state.

In some communities on the Florida Panhandle, new construction needs to only withstand wind speeds of 130 mph or less .........
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/17/65815609 ... -panhandle
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby careinke » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 04:13:34

Tanada wrote:
First off I said having them less than a hundred miles from the coast was a bad idea, not that they should be at least a couple hundred miles inland. Secondly, we have been using AWACS aircraft for the last forty plus years precisely because shore based radar installations have such a limited range. In an actual shooting war the rules are radically different and you have SAM batteries and ships doing their own integrated searching feeding data to the command and control system and read to pop a real threat. What you need manned aircraft for is a 911 type situation where they can intercept and observe before if necessary making the shoot decision. ON top of all that the Navy at least has RORSAT constantly scanning to get the really big picture.


As a former AWACS Mission Crew Commander, I can guarantee you can not continually provide airborne surveillance on the ADIZ with the AWACS. We only have 31 of them, with a very high percentage being TDY all over the world. In addition, you must take into consideration down time for maintenance etc. I was also a Master Instructor at the Basic Weapons Controller school at Tyndall AFB. The base has been there since at least WWII. It provided easy access to overwater training areas, a safe launch facility for target drones so our pilots could practice live fire, a good FOB for drug interdiction missions, and a nice alert facility for Interceptor Aircraft.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets ... try-awacs/

The Navy has similar problems with CC, except they do not have the option of moving slightly inland to higher ground.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 08:21:59

Norfolk. Triple whammy.
Ground water removal subsidence
Crater rim collapsing
Amplified SLR

Largest naval base in the world.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 09:14:44

Willa and Vicent threaten Mexico’s west coast. They almost appear to be converging, but I haven’t seen an overlay of their tracks in time.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 14:16:08

https://thinkprogress.org/category-5-yu ... qhRr44A2bQ

Worst storm in nearly 100 years leaves U.S. islands devastated
Yutu appears to be the second-worst storm ever to hit U.S. soil.


...In only 24 hours, Yutu went from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5, leaving residents with little time to fully prepare. That echoes Hurricane Michael’s swift build-up two weeks ago, when the Category 4 storm slammed the Florida Panhandle, the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the United States...
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 21 Nov 2018, 13:00:02

Pacific Ocean Typhoons Intensifying More Than Previously Projected
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-pacific-o ... ously.html

Changes to the uppermost layer of Earth's oceans due to rising temperatures are likely causing an increase in intense Pacific Ocean typhoons, suggesting strong typhoons may occur more frequently than scientists project in the coming decades, according to new research.

... A new study published in Earth's Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, finds the ocean mixed layer deepened along tropical cyclone tracks by 1.7–2.0 meters from 2002-2015, while other factors changed only marginally. The authors conclude this deepening could be responsible for the uptick in intense typhoons from 1980 to 2015, and they project the increase of intense typhoons will continue at a greater rate than previously projected in the coming decades.

In the new study, Wu and his team examined the contributions of various factors controlling typhoon intensity change, such as sea surface temperatures, the temperature of outward flowing air and water, ocean mixed layer depth, and vertical wind shear, as well as shifts in the tropical cyclone tracks. They used computer simulations to compare each factor with observed tropical cyclone intensities in the western North Pacific basin for each year from 1980-2015.

After quantifying the contribution of each environmental factor to tropical cyclone intensity, they determined that the increase in the proportion of intense typhoons was largely due to a deepening of the ocean mixed layer. This deepening is in turn caused by variations in ocean and atmospheric conditions.

The deepening of the ocean mixed layer is just one of many substantial changes to atmospheric and ocean circulations that have occurred in the western North Pacific since 2000 as a result of climate change, according to the researchers. Deepening of the ocean mixed layer is likely the major reason for the sudden increase in the proportion of intense typhoons in 2001, Wu said.

Because previous studies have not accounted for ocean mixed layer depth in their projections, the authors conclude that future typhoons in the North Pacific may be increasingly intense, and to an even greater degree than previously thought.

Open Access: Liguang Wu et al. Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980-2015, Earth's Future (2018).


Abstract:

Over the past decade extensive studies have been undertaken to understand the increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale). The trend has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons. It is demonstrated that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980–2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The nonuniform spatial distribution of environmental parameters makes the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks contribute at least half the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. Although the maximum potential intensity theory and numerical modeling project an increase of tropical cyclone intensity in a warming climate, the effects of the temporal change of the ocean mixed layer depth and the prevailing track change were not taken into account in the projection. This study suggests that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific basin could be larger than the projection in previous studies.


Plain Language Summary:

The increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale) has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. Although extensive studies have been undertaken over the past decade, its attribution still is a subject of controversy. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific and found that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980–2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. This study suggests that the tropical cyclone intensification could be larger than the projection since the change of the ocean mixed layer was not taken into account in previous studies.


(thanks to vox at asif for this)
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 19:49:59

The strongest cyclone in South-West Indian Ocean since 2015/2016 season.

07S CILIDA
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 21, 2018:

Location: 15.6°S 57.7°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 932 mb

(thanks to aluminium at asif for this)
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:48:15

It's the "Solar" wind (shear)? Another day another study showing an inconvenient truth!

Rapid intensification of tropical storms is examined in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system.

The results indicate that rapid intensification of tropical storms tends to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes or coronal mass ejections. The ensuing auroral and polar cap activity including ionospheric currents and ionospheric convection generates atmospheric gravity waves that propagate from the high-latitude lower thermosphere both upward and downward. If ducted in the lower atmosphere, they can reach tropical troposphere.....these gravity waves can trigger/release moist instabilities to initiate convective bursts, with the latent heat release leading to intensification of storms. Convective bursts have been linked to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Cases of tropical cyclone intensification closely correlated with the solar wind structure are found to be preceded by atmospheric gravity waves generated by the solar wind magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling process.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 2618305765
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 16:11:52

Devastating Storm Usman Leaves 68 Dead in the Philippines

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... evastating

The death toll from Storm Usman that struck the Philippines shortly after Christmas rose to 68 with the number of fatalities expected to climb even higher, civil defence officials said Monday.

Fifty-seven people died in the mountainous Bicol region, southeast of Manila, while 11 were killed in the central island of Samar, mostly due to landslides and drownings, the officials said.

While it did not have powerful winds it brought heavy rains that caused floods and loosened the soil, triggering landslides in some areas.

One official told AFP news agency that people did not take precautions as it was not classed as a typhoon under the government's alert system.


an MIT study has given an estimate based on model simulations and observations: With every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, the study finds, tropical regions will see 10 percent heavier rainfall extremes, with possible impacts for flooding in populous regions

Unfortunately, the results of the study suggest a relatively high sensitivity of tropical extreme rainfall to global warming.
https://m.phys.org/news/2012-09-intensi ... lobal.html
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