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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 10:11:59

Base placement is often driven by political decisions. But I suspect you know that.

The Navy has a bigger issue.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 11:08:51

Thanks for all the info on military planes, folks! Not really my area of expertise.

Hurricanes are not necessarily predicted to increase in frequency, since the added energy that GW puts into the system also increases wind shear, that tends to cut cyclonic storms apart.

But when they do escape that storm-destroying force, they are likely to be bigger, stronger, and, as we just saw, develop much more quickly, all of which makes them more deadly, damaging, and dangerous.

Just as a reminder, the following is a partial list of how GW tends to add extra juice and damaging potential to these storms:

• More heat energy in the atmosphere means more energy to make bigger, stronger storms
• More heat energy at the sea surface means " " "
• More heat energy ever further down the water column means even further and faster development
• More water vapor (already increased about 8% from pre-industrial times) on average also provides more power and more moisture for more damaging, heavier rainfall event
• Higher sea levels mean storm surges are starting from an ever higher 'floor'
...

Others can add other components, as they occur to them.

(Of course, for those so blinkered and science-ignorant /-ignoring that they refuse the century-plus-long finding of climate science, none of this will be very convincing or interesting...)

By the way, it sounds like many who had said they intended to ride out the storm, did in fact leave before the worst hit.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 12:57:46

Except that the NOAA historical Atlantic storm records I lionked to in my message above indicate that storms have not increased in frequency, duration, or amount of damage. I acknowledge your information as to expected changes, I simply want to note that the actual weather observer records do not support this hypothesis.

The clamor of the AGW fanboys often hides the actual facts. I have even seen insurance companies asking the state regulatory agency for insurance price increases outside of the guidelines and quoting AGW as the cause.

Remember that AGW is an unconfirmed hypothesis. The last three IPCC summaries include a summary statement about how many of the learned scientists specializing in climate studies concur with the AGW hypothesis and how many dissent. The percentage of dissenters has grown over these subsequent reports. (Admitttedly the majority still favor the hypothesis.)

But it would be terribly unscientific to attribute non-existent phenomena like storm frequency/duration/intensity to the AGW hhypothesis, especially with no supporting data from weather observations, and decreasing concensus on the basic AGW hypothesis itself.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 13:30:50

Another expected shift that has already been detected is a poleward shift in cyclone activity worldwide (but not so much yet in the Atlantic basin).

"...the latitude at which the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones occurs has expanded poleward globally in recent decades..."

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also note: "There is already ... detectable human contribution to past observed increases in heavy precipitation in general over global land regions and for the United States..."
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 16:52:53

Finally got a chance to see the video. Far less technical and more accessible than her previous recordings. Also a very different audience, she is usually speaking to meteorologist.

Stringing is her change in describing the effects. Previously she was always shy to say how bad things were. This time she was pretty darn clear. Will he arctic ice return? Uh, NO.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 18:22:34

Sounds like a good video. Would you mind sharing the link again. Somehow I can't find it in the thread above now. Thanks.

EDA: Never mind. I found it on the Arctic Sea Ice thread. Watching now...

I'd like to challenge K, C and other resident denialist to watch this! But they won't because, of course, they are cowards, too devoted to their precious preconceptions to have them challenged by an actual climate scientist!
Last edited by dohboi on Sun 14 Oct 2018, 18:39:14, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 18:32:13

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 21:14:15

A success story emerges:

Among the Ruins of Mexico Beach Stands One House, Built ‘for the Big One’
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/14/us/hurricane-michael-florida-mexico-beach-house.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

I wonder how much added expense that has, percentage wise? Basically, there would be no single story structures as the first story is always the flood bearing story.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 21:48:43

dohboi wrote:Sounds like a good video. Would you mind sharing the link again. Somehow I can't find it in the thread above now. Thanks.

EDA: Never mind. I found it on the Arctic Sea Ice thread. Watching now...

I'd like to challenge K, C and other resident denialist to watch this! But they won't because, of course, they are cowards, too devoted to their precious preconceptions to have them challenged by an actual climate scientist!


You see, there's the problem. You cannot be certain, properly you can only discuss probabilities when AGW is concerned. You and anybody else who feels certain of one position or the other are quite simply wrong. Those of us who keep open minds and do not exclude evidence and datasets that dispute whatever preconceptions that one has, are acting as do the actual climate scientists themselves.

Note that I have never disputed that we are in a long term warming trend, one that will continue for approximately 1200 more years until we reach the Climatic Optimum for this particular interglacial period. I simply doubt that the contributions of mankind to global climate are at all significant, compared to the natural forces at work.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 22:04:39

jedrider wrote:A success story emerges:

Among the Ruins of Mexico Beach Stands One House, Built ‘for the Big One’
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/14/us/hurricane-michael-florida-mexico-beach-house.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

I wonder how much added expense that has, percentage wise? Basically, there would be no single story structures as the first story is always the flood bearing story.


From the article -

Mr. King wouldn’t say how much he and Dr. Lackey spent to fortify the beachside home, which public records show has been assessed for tax purposes at a value of $400,000. Their architect, Charles A. Gaskin, said that building a house the way they did roughly doubles the cost per square foot, compared with ordinary building practices.

Other experts had different views of the expense required. An estimate published in Forbes in 2012 said implementing an array of storm-resistance measures, including some of those advised by the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, would add more than $30,000 to the cost of a typical house.


I tend to go with the second assessment. Concrete forming, drilling,, all that, isn't too expensive if the contractors are around. A contractor with a pumping rig and a drilling rig could put poured/reinforced pylons down 20-30 feet (or whatever the location requires). Tie everything down to that. If that became the standard industry in those areas, cookie-cutter platforms could be very cost effective. Have a choice of shapes and sizes.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby careinke » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 00:29:28

Tanada wrote:What the disaster at the air force base tells me is building airfields within a hundred miles of the hurricane coast is a really bad idea. From a hundred miles inland the response time to an invader is only a few minutes, so putting the base smack on the coast is both unnecessary and unwise.


Not true. Our coastal radars only reach out a couple of hundred miles. If you put the interceptors a couple of hundred miles away from the coast, the enemy would make landfall before you could reach them. Especially when you figure it takes two minutes to identify them before you scramble, and another five minutes for the jets to get airborne.

Trust me, I did this for a living.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 06:31:14

GHung,

The typical approach is to use wood pilings, not reinforced concrete. I would suspect Reinforced concrete in a salt water environment.

They have been doing this type of construction in coastal NJ since the ‘60’s.

It is more interesting thtnthey didn’t put such codes into effect in the pan handle. It is one more example of how difficult it is for humans to imagine a different future.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 09:06:34

careinke wrote:
Tanada wrote:What the disaster at the air force base tells me is building airfields within a hundred miles of the hurricane coast is a really bad idea. From a hundred miles inland the response time to an invader is only a few minutes, so putting the base smack on the coast is both unnecessary and unwise.


Not true. Our coastal radars only reach out a couple of hundred miles. If you put the interceptors a couple of hundred miles away from the coast, the enemy would make landfall before you could reach them. Especially when you figure it takes two minutes to identify them before you scramble, and another five minutes for the jets to get airborne.

Trust me, I did this for a living.


What is now Tyndall AFB was an Army Air Corp base opened in 1941 as an Air Corp gunner base, on the coast so gunners could practice shooting stuff over the Gulf. I doubt they were worried much about hurricanes during WWII. Clark Gable trained there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyndall_Air_Force_Base

A little farther west, Naval Air Station Pensacola goes back to 1825 as a Navy Yard and was developed as an aviation training station around 1914. Maybe they thought water was softer to crash on :o The site as a military fort goes back well before the US Revolution:

The Spanish built the wooden Fort San Carlos de Austria on this bluff in 1697–1698.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Air ... #Navy_Yard

Funny they picked a bluff for their fort. Maybe they WERE worried about hurricanes, eh?
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 11:20:36

Something Newfie can appreciate (somewhere between The Perfect Storm and Mr Toad's Wild Ride) ...

Experimental Navy Test Ship Weathers Hurricane Michael Off the Coast of Panama City

Image

An experimental Navy catamaran fought Hurricane Michael in the bay of Panama City, Fla., unable to take to sea to avoid the Category 4 storm that made landfall early afternoon on Wednesday.

The 950-ton Sea Fighter (FSF-1) was at double anchor in the bay, “engines running and nose to the wind” with a minimal crew aboard, Office of Navy Research spokesman Robert Freeman told USNI News on Wednesday.

The ship is fresh out of a maintenance period, and repairs to its propulsion and steering systems couldn’t be tested in time to escape the weather. (... Nothing like testing propulsion in Cat 4 conditions)

“The timing was bad,” Freeman said. (... Ya Think!)

Ultimately, it was the decision of the ship’s civilian master to weather the storm in the bay, he said. (... Mistakes were made; Others will be blamed)

James Barker experienced Hurricane Michael’s fury aboard the FSF-1 Sea Fighter.

He said the initial plan was to get the Sea Fighter underway well in advance of the hurricane roaring ashore. But he said maintenance issues delayed leaving port and by the time crews had cobbled together the necessary fixes “the hurricane was too close for us to run away from it.”

“We went out to the middle of St. Andrews Bay and rode out the entirety of the storm,” said Barker, 47, a 1989 graduate of Flathead High School.

St. Andrews Bay is between Panama City and Mexico Beach, next to Tyndall AFB
“I tell you what, I’ll never do that again,” he said. “It was exhilarating, to say the least.”

The waves weren’t as bad as the winds, Barker said.
Before being torn away by the gale, the ship’s wind gauge recorded wind speeds of 140 mph

They also had to dodge a Seattle, Washington-based fishing company’s factory trawler that was being built at a shipyard there.

Image

The North Star, a 261-foot vessel owned by Iquique US, a division of the Glacier Fish Co., was ripped from a shipyard mooring in Panama City, Florida, and left lying on its starboard side in Saint Andrews Bay, the Seattle Times reports. The vessel was near completion by Eastern Shipbuilding and expected to travel north next month to join its 50-person groundfishing crew in Alaska.

Image

and don't expect any accounting of damages and costs ...

The Navy’s Terrible Accident Record Is Now Hidden From Public View

The latest incidence of a government agency quietly removing data from its website demonstrates the dangers of an ever-changing internet.

Websites appear and disappear every day. The internet is an amorphous beast, constantly being edited and updated. We accept these changes as simple fact, but crucial information is frequently removed from government websites—and small changes over time can have major downstream consequences.

The decision to suppress this data from public view came as the Navy, which also oversees Marine aviation, was dealing with headlines pointing out that its safety problems are increasing faster than any other branch: The Navy has seen an 82 percent spike in accidents between the 2013 and 2017 fiscal years, while the overall military increase for that same period of time is 40 percent.

The Navy’s decision may be part of a larger trend. In May 2017, the foreign-policy magazine National Interest obtained emails from top Navy officials discouraging the disclosure of readiness numbers—figures that report how many aircraft are ready to fight in the event of a major conflict. At the time, nearly two-thirds of the Navy and Marine F-18s were unfit to fly. In 2015, the Marines’ CH-53E fleet was in even worse shape, with just 23 percent of aircraft able to fly a mission.

Image

The change in policy was implemented quietly sometime between January 22 and March 18 of this year, according to Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. ... The Navy made this decision to limit access to the information even though none of the files or information on the old version of the website were marked “For Official Use Only.”

... the act of making the data private effectively makes it secret. “Most people, including most reporters and official oversight personnel, are not going to take the trouble to uncover suppressed information of this kind
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 13:00:19

VM, most modern military vessels are uniquely suited to ride out a hurricane. The FSF-1 Sea Fighter for example has a doubly redundant gas turbine power plant, either massive jet engine can power the water jets that move and maneuver her, at high speeds, and she has very little superstructure above the hull (in fact she's a semi-stealth design) to act as sail area.

Clumsy commercial boats are comparatively vulnerable, with fuel efficient (compared to a jet engine) marine diesels with relatively feeble outputs. Likewise being in a sailing vessel with an even more feeble auxiliary engine is to be helpless in the storm.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 13:51:53

Baring small catamarans from this discussion it’s not the wind it’s the waves.

Rule of thumb
A ship laying side to a wave whose height is 30% the length of the vessel MAY capsize the vessel.
A ship laying side to a wave whose height is 60% the length of the vessle WILL be capsized.
Even laying head on eventually the wave height will be sufficient to pitchpole the vessel.
Larger ships tend to break up because the wavelength is a significant portion of their overall length, so that you alternately have the mid section supported by a wave with the ends down in the troughs and the have the ends supports by wave crests with the mid section in a trough. The ships bend and eventually break.

The ship lost a few years ago in the Bahamas during a hurricane died a different death. First some scuttles were left open, then sliding gear broke open a fire main. This caused the ship to heel so that the engines lost lubrication oil, and they shut down. Without power she was laying side to the waves with the cargo breaking loose, the heel was sufficient to allow additional down flooding.

This navy vessel was is relatively protected waters with lots of wind but not huge waves. As long as the anchors hold she is OK. Running the engines kept load off the anchors.


Had she been in the open ocean and exposed to the full fury of the storm the result would likely have been different.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 17:18:53

careinke wrote:
Tanada wrote:What the disaster at the air force base tells me is building airfields within a hundred miles of the hurricane coast is a really bad idea. From a hundred miles inland the response time to an invader is only a few minutes, so putting the base smack on the coast is both unnecessary and unwise.


Not true. Our coastal radars only reach out a couple of hundred miles. If you put the interceptors a couple of hundred miles away from the coast, the enemy would make landfall before you could reach them. Especially when you figure it takes two minutes to identify them before you scramble, and another five minutes for the jets to get airborne.

Trust me, I did this for a living.


First off I said having them less than a hundred miles from the coast was a bad idea, not that they should be at least a couple hundred miles inland. Secondly, we have been using AWACS aircraft for the last forty plus years precisely because shore based radar installations have such a limited range. In an actual shooting war the rules are radically different and you have SAM batteries and ships doing their own integrated searching feeding data to the command and control system and read to pop a real threat. What you need manned aircraft for is a 911 type situation where they can intercept and observe before if necessary making the shoot decision. ON top of all that the Navy at least has RORSAT constantly scanning to get the really big picture.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby GHung » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 18:17:08

Newfie wrote:GHung,

The typical approach is to use wood pilings, not reinforced concrete. I would suspect Reinforced concrete in a salt water environment.

They have been doing this type of construction in coastal NJ since the ‘60’s.

It is more interesting thtnthey didn’t put such codes into effect in the pan handle. It is one more example of how difficult it is for humans to imagine a different future.


Reinforced concrete has been used for decades all over the world in salt water environments. If it was 'suspect' I doubt they would use it for offshore wind farms, canals, locks, piers, all sorts of things. I'm sure they have certain mixtures and types of rebar for that.

Image

https://www.wrightsvillebeach.com/johnn ... -pier.html

https://www.concreteconstruction.net/_v ... b9d6200000
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 20:39:11

Ghung,

OK, I concede the point. I CAN be done well, it just isn’t always done well.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 21:26:00

I picked up this tidbit on another forum.

Looking at video of the damage from Michael has me thinking about an important new insurance option for coastal homes.

The FEMA 50% rule means if the damage to your home exceeds 50% of its value you are required to rebuild to current building codes. Most insurance policies only cover replacing your home as it was before the storm. The difference between the two numbers can be HUGE.
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