[Newfie]

Doing some research on where to invest shortly.

My basic theory is we will have another market dip in about 3 weeks when India and similar countries gets slammed with the virus. I simply believe that hearing of millions of deaths will be so depressive it will drag the market down.

I have toyed with the idea of starting a C-19 Investing thread.

If there is expressed interest I will and move any related posts here to there

In the meantime here is an interesting article on how the Europe food chain is being effected.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ ... ronavirus/

[Ibon]

Doing some research on where to invest shortly.

My basic theory is we will have another market dip in about 3 weeks when India and similar countries gets slammed with the virus. I simply believe that hearing of millions of deaths will be so depressive it will drag the market down.

I have toyed with the idea of starting a C-19 Investing thread.

If there is expressed interest I will and move any related posts here to there

In the meantime here is an interesting article on how the Europe food chain is being effected.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ ... ronavirus/

Go ahead and start. I will share my interest. I have already mentioned in the past I got out of the stock market 15 years ago and have only invested in real estate. We sold our 2 Florida properties in the past two years and I put 80% of the proceeds into low earning CD's and only 20% in ETF with exposure to stocks. So I am sitting on a lot of cash and for the first time in 15 years I am tempted to get back into the market once we bottom out. I am beginning to step back in gingerly and would welcome any inputs.

[vtsnowedin]

The big four tech stocks, Microsoft, Apple, google and Amazon will probably all do better then the rest of the market after the bottom. If you are a bit more daring Tesla would be my bet. And once the oil price starts back up due to increasing demand all the solvent oi companies will do quite well from their lows.
There is plenty of time to think about it as I doubt the lows will be reached or climbed away from until after the forth of July.

[Newfie]

Those stocks may be good. I’ve seen worse picks.

Like I said above I think we are going to have another bottom. Due to India and Africa getting slammed. I think it will cause a general psychological depression that will push stocks down.

The question is what will the herd do after we hit bottom? It’s inherent to assume things will start fighting their way back to “normal” because if they don’t then everything crashes and this discussion is irrelevant. And I do think we will try to get back to where we were.

So the question becomes “How will people’s behaviors change in the next 18 months, what will they demand, what will they use? What will they drop and run away from?”

Europe is having some trouble with fresh food supplies. Pickers and transport are shut down. Will that create demand for AI strawberry picker robots and driverless container trucks in the ports? One of China’s bulky problems was getting drivers back to the ports to load ships.

On the other hand I see a whole lot of folks out of work. They won’t have much money but some. How will they spend it. Will Netflix explode?

Or will they become a group of homeless locust. Will the government be forced to create a lot of low income housing?

Will we bring home a lot of pharmaceutical industries? Maybe some other industries? Will we do a reassessment or what critical industries we have exported and will now repatriate?

So many questions.

On the other side my guess is Boeing is toast without a huge bailout. Airbus not far behind.

[Ibon]

Counter intuitively I am wondering about the most hardest hit market segments like the Airline Industry or Hotel Industry. So much of staying in hotels and flying is tourism which is discretionary. Logic would indicate that fear of flying and travel (because of Covid19) and the financial hit many folks will take will cause a longer term depression on these industries for a longer period of time.

Here is the counter intuitive part. The lockdown is creating a pent up demand for travel for both discretionary and non discretionary purposes. Once the markets open and folks have freedom of movement they are going to MOVE... because they have been denied this.

I have received 100% short term cancellation at our resosrt but something strange started this week... I got 5 new inquiries asking for availability starting in December. I wasn't expecting to see any new inquiries for awhile.

[Newfie]

Yes, and they may want to move in different ways.

I think yacht sales will plummet. Irrationally folks down here were driven to return to the USA. It’s like asking “Why toilet paper?” Because it connects to something primitive. So I’m thinking folks will want to stay close to home. So maybe a big uplift in RV sales??? Become a turtle, take home with you. While maintaining the ability to travel and perhaps run away?

After 911 home sales in my home town went way up, prices followed. People just wanted to get out of NYC. How do you run away from this virus? It doesn’t matter what the next crisis might be, they will react to the last crisis. How could they have found protection in the Coronavirus crisis? We have a clue, they bought TP. What does this tell us?

[vtsnowedin]

The travel restrictions have shown the value of owning a vacation home away from the city. I expect a spike in sales and prices for such property after this settles down. Yachts need marinas, RVs need campgrounds and hotels can't be relied on to be open when you need them. The doomstead with ten acres in the woods will be king for a while as long as the fear lasts.
As for Bowing there is a military component to their business that will not be allowed to fail.

[mmasters]

I think we're roughly at the bottom right now.

My strategy is is to get high quality stocks at a discount or companies that will benefit off the situation.

I like JP Morgan Chase (JPM), solid bank, probably the best and at a discount (there is no financial crisis).
Goldman Sachs (where I used to work). These people know how to profit off the situation better than anyone and the stock is at a bargain price.
QQQ - a basket of the popular tech and sweetheart stocks of the past decade (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc), the 5-10 year chart is impressive.
General Motors - good value at the current price.
Tesla - a little more risky but another company the public is starting to love.

[Armageddon]

The bottom will be below 10k

[vtsnowedin]

The bottom will be below 10k

I doubt that very much. The corporations will still have 325 million customers to serve and there will be pent up demand to meet.
But there is no need to guess the precise bottom as it will determine itself and we can get in after it starts to rise back up with no crisis of any size in the news.

[Newfie]

Interesting interview.

Not that I agree with it, or disagree either. But interesting, most especially the interview at the end.

Reminds me of Elon Musk pushing his book.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richkarlga ... fa89de6e78

[Plantagenet]

Is it time to buy now.....or will the market go down even more?

I've been trying to think where more bad news could come from that would drive the market even lower.

Right now Mr. Market sees the death numbers falling in Italy and Mr. Market is thinking...."is that all there is to the virus? I get it----I understand what is going to happen" So people are buying back into stocks and the market is bouncing up a bit.

Mr. Market thinks the pattern of virus deaths is all rather predictable now. There are even published numerical models that predict when the "peak" death rate will occur, country by country and state by state.

But if there is some unexpected bad news, the market could go down again, and go down even harder.

And the main thing I could think of that would drive the market much lower is........

A second wave of virus deaths.

In 1918 there was a second wave of influenza deaths in 1918 (and a third wave in 1919). The second wave was WORSE then the first.

What if there is a second wave of Wuhan virus deaths coming? AND there is some evidence a second wave has already started.

Scientist fear second wave of virus deaths

Cheers!

[Ibon]

.

And the main thing I could think of that would drive the market much lower is........

A second wave of virus deaths.

In 1918 there was a second wave of influenza deaths in 1918 (and a third wave in 1919). The second wave was WORSE then the first.

Good point. Also worth watching is how the Asian countries trying to re open their markets are going to deal with reinfections and closing down again. This will send the markets down.

I for one do not want to invest trying to day trade the ups and downs of market sentiment. I would only nibble again buying stocks when I see the virus no longer able to cause these lock downs globally. It might take a couple years.

Vaccine announcements for example could make the market bounce but then crash again if they do not prove safe or effective.

My sentiment is we will have a roller coaster of ups and downs until the unknowns about the virus are resolved.

I wont invest in the near future in stocks.

[Newfie]

It’s not just when to buy, it’s what to buy.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Is it time to buy now.....or will the market go down even more?

I've been trying to think where more bad news could come from that would drive the market even lower.

Just off the top:

1). A second wave of virus deaths, as you said. Dr. Fauci is saying there's a substantial chance of a North American fall/winter surge, given what's happening in Southern Africa and Southern South America recently.

He seems to be about giving sane information based on how he sees the medicine, science, not political agendas, BTW.

2). Bad news on the vaccine timing front. I'd be surprised if all the candidates just skate through. There is a reason for the extensive testing.

3). Worse news on the employment / business front than people expect. In any major area of the world, as the virus ebbs and flows. The talking heads are throwing out lots of guesswork

4). Significant events in the credit market, requiring far more debt / rescues than expected. There's a limit to what the markets will calmly accept, IMO. Politics is already entering how the rescue bills are crafted in a major way.

5). Virus news fatigue. If this just goes on longer than expected and there is bad news (not dramatically bad, but persistently bad) month after month, I think sellers will outnumber buyers over time.

...

I'm sure I'm missing all kinds of stuff, even OBVIOUS stuff. We've seen how hard it is to predict the future, even re annual global oil production and pricing, year after year after year.

I could be dead wrong, but I've gotten through the various crises/recessions since 1980 without getting killed via gradualism and accumulating the market as a whole. (Which is easier when you're working, as you can just dollar cost average with your salary, month after month, and year after year).

I figure worst case, I miss the opportunity this time. Fine. I'd far rather do that then over-commit early and get my portfolio "killed" if things get a lot worse than the market expects.

[vtsnowedin]

It’s not just when to buy, it’s what to buy.

Always the case.
At my age I will not be investing hoping to cash in on good choices in a few years. I don't need the income so if I buy anything it will be looking to pass it on to my children when I pass on. That said I will look to companies that have a positive future looking five ten and twenty years ahead. There is where my big four tech companies come in as well as Tesla with it's spaceX component along with all the solar power storage potential they are developing.
The question is which companies will still be around and profitable in 2025 and which ones will be dust or bought up by bigger fish.
Some research and inspired thought is needed.

[Outcast_Searcher]

It’s not just when to buy, it’s what to buy.

Excellent point.

For example, buying the whole market (i.e. broad based indexes) is a COMPLETELY different proposition, risk wise, than buying, say Tesla (or any single, volatile, possibly very promising stock).

Oil already seems cheap. But if oil doesn't recover within 5 years, there are going to be seriously ugly numbers for the industry. Oil might be a great choice (I have no idea), but investors should realize that investing in one market sector is MUCH, MUCH riskier than investing in the whole market, when the global economy is under a lot of stress.

I'm only talking about stocks because they're all I really have much experience in.

[vtsnowedin]

One reform I would like to see in the future is making short selling illegal. That would reduce the casino betting activity in the market and remove people that don't have skin in the game from manipulating prices for their benefit at your expense.

[Newfie]

From our home page.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... break-down

I was see similar articles for a Europe yesterday.

Cold storage houses? Even more huge distribution centers along the NJ Turnpike.

[Newfie]

Ibon wrote elsewhere:

Is this our short to mid term future?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... arantined/

A certificate to move about freely to those who have recovered from Covid19?

My instant analysis can see this thing providing some real investment opportunity.

Imagine the infrastructure required to do 6-10 billion tests and then maintain the results!

It will encourage, perhaps require, ALL people to be tested. And perhaps the test result will become part of your permanent record somehow, like eye color on a drivers license.

Think about it beyond employment. Airport screening, going to a concert? Dating? I could see this thing exploding. Maybe moving to some online database where some key points of your medical history are stored. Also put your HIV status on there, herpes also.