Taskforce_Unity wrote:I have just written an paper that includes unconventional oil sources (tar sands, polar oil, extra-heavy stuff from venezuela), it will become available on the website of ASPO -5 next week. Doing a poster presentation about it.
"that unconventional production can replace the decline of conventional oil production"
It probably can't do that, as soon as the easy stuff starts declining (and then im including deepwater and caspian sea oil), unconventional oil from bitumen, orimulsion or other sources can't keep that rate up. To my opinion, only quick development of biofuels to liquids and coal to liquids can keep sustaining increased liquids production after 2012 to my opinion, and that will be very hard to do. In other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment
whereagles wrote: In other words, we COULD have, say, tar sands oil yielding 5 mbd, but while we gather the machinery to do that, decline in conventional oil might already be 8 mbd. So we would end up with a net loss of 3 mbd. Conclusion would be: peak light sweet = peak oil.
Currently, no organization with the management, technical, and financial wherewithal to develop oil shale resources has announced itsintent to build commercial-scale production facilities. A firm decision to commit funds to such a venture is at least six years away because that is the minimum length of time for scale-up and process confirmation work needed to obtain the technical and environmental data required for the design and permitting of a first-of-a-kind commercial operation. At least an additional six to eight years will be required to permit, design, construct, shake down, and confirm performance of that initial commercial operation. Consequently, at least 12 and possibly more years will elapse before oil shale development will reach the production growth phase. Under high growth assumptions, an oil shale production level of 1 million barrels per day is probably more than 20 years in the future, and 3 million barrels per day is probably more than 30 years into the future.
Olle wrote:Taskforce_Unity wrote:I have just written an paper that includes unconventional oil sources (tar sands, polar oil, extra-heavy stuff from venezuela), it will become available on the website of ASPO -5 next week. Doing a poster presentation about it.
"that unconventional production can replace the decline of conventional oil production"
It probably can't do that, as soon as the easy stuff starts declining (and then im including deepwater and caspian sea oil), unconventional oil from bitumen, orimulsion or other sources can't keep that rate up. To my opinion, only quick development of biofuels to liquids and coal to liquids can keep sustaining increased liquids production after 2012 to my opinion, and that will be very hard to do. In other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment
That sound really reasonable!
We need to build a renewables based electrical infrastructure in all places. We also need to figure out how to live, as a society, without growth (i.e. without needing a constantly increasing supply of energy).Taskforce_Unity wrote:In other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment
Sleepybag wrote:
According to the Dutch branche of the PeakOil network, the production peak of conventional oil is likely to be already behind us. Back in 2005 we hit the 74 million barrels mark twice, never to return since.
Peak Oil Newsletter May 2007 (Large PDF warning)
See also: Peak Oil Netherlands
But what good does this fact do us if we can't get DOOM out of it
DOOM
billp wrote:But what good does this fact do us if we can't get DOOM out of it
So let's start a post and ask some questions about the future of Nex Mexico natural gas which the IRP is tasked to address.
billp wrote:DOOM
I'm a bit worried about the future of our kids and, maybe even more important, our grandkids.
The government needs to realize that not only do they have to spend wisely, do they have to make investments wisely, but they need to realize that we have passed the peak for conventional oil and gas.
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