This is a link to a short online opinion article by J.R. Dunn. It makes a case that World War III will be fought over the petroleum resources in the South China Sea. Here is the area we are talking about:
Map courtesy Flikr. Source: D.Rosenberg/MiddleburyCollege/HarvardAsiaQuarterly/PhilGov’t.
This is a very short read, 8 screens at 100% magnification setting on your browser, including photos and a short pair of low rez embedded videos.
Do I place any credibility in this scenario? YES would be the short answer. One logistical problem the US Navy would have to overcome is the sheer distance to major naval bases. There simply isn't much left to the USN in Japan, the Philippines, or Vietnam. The two closest major USN bases are on Guam and Diego Garcia, and both together plus the USN air bases in Japan are less than half as big as is USN Pearl Harbor, which is quite distant.
There is of course nobody better at long distance power projection than the USN. But the Chinese are right there, it would be a short supply line for them and a very long one for us. Not to mention they have been developing aircraft carrier tactics using a carrier they bought from the Russians, and carrier-based stealth fighter/attack craft. They have two carriers under construction, about to enter service, and two more planned. If in fact they get four carrier groups in service, they would be the #2 naval force in the world, following only the USA. (They already have the nuclear attack subs and surface craft and airplanes they need to round out four carrier task groups.) THEN they would be a credible threat with a huge advantage in that area of the world. Say 5-10 years from today.
The short read: https://www.baen.com/south-china-sea