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Collapsing or not?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Are we now in an accelerated phase of collapse or is this just temporary disruption ?

1. Yes we are in a process of collapse
14
45%
2. No, we will continue business as usual a while longer
17
55%
 
Total votes : 31

Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 20:03:34

JuanP wrote:
Newfie wrote:
Get well soon, Ibon! It's been 5 days since we were exposed to COVID-19 and we have no symptoms yet.


What did I miss???

Ibon had 200 European tourists over and has had symptoms for 8 days. My wife and I worked for a day on Tuesday with a volunteer at the farm, the volunteer got sick the day after, and tested positive, so we are in quarantine.


Thanks for clarifying. I missed all that.
And it ain’t like I have been too busy to keep up. :oops:
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 20:06:47

Ibon wrote:
JuanP wrote:
Newfie wrote:
Get well soon, Ibon! It's been 5 days since we were exposed to COVID-19 and we have no symptoms yet.


What did I miss???

Ibon had 200 European tourists over and has had symptoms for 8 days. My wife and I worked for a day on Tuesday with a volunteer at the farm, the volunteer got sick the day after, and tested positive, so we are in quarantine.


My symptoms are mild and of course I am not sure what it is I have. But it has persisted. Again, chills one night and slight fever. Since 8 days a constricted feeling in my chest. Occasional cough but not bringing up any sputum or anything. It is a dry cough but I am only coughing once or twice every couple of hours. Mild chills at night every day or so. I am still working up to around 90% of normal capacity but I feel this low grade flu like symptoms. Not getting worse not getting better either. We did have many guests from Europe up until March 17th. No reason to go down into town or to a hospital and get myself tested and risk exposure if this is something else.

Dry cough is a telltale sign of COVID 19 but again most just have mild symptoms and recover. Most being the relatively healthy, Guess you are fending off the Overshoot Predator
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 20:07:12

Ibon,
I’ve been feeling like that since 2018. :-D
Maybe your getting old. 8O

Good luck and stay safe.

If you got it and that’s all it is then you are over the hump. I guess and hope.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 13:06:00

Anyway speaking of Collapse from another site
"We are caught in an iron triangle.

First, we had already reached critical and irreversible turning points in our ecological crisis. Second, we have reached a point at which this pandemic is largely beyond control and we have no basis to believe that it will be the only one we face. A once-in-a-hundred-years "event" will become a sequence of such events. Third, it is plain our model of economic exploitation only worsens the situations it vainly proposes to save. We insist on repeating our errors because those who profit from them are the best placed to continue in them.

It's only divination, of course, but we have lost three out of three and there are no fourth chances in this destructive game. We conserve our errors, cannot contend with the unexpected, and will continue to dig our own graves.

We shall have disease, depression, and ever more dictatorships."
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 18:44:27

onlooker wrote:we have reached a point at which this pandemic is largely beyond control and we have no basis to believe that it will be the only one we face.


I thought it was a hoax or at least no big deal? Which is it, oh armchair-expert?

onlooker wrote:Third, it is plain our model of economic exploitation


It's no surprise that you categorize the model as exploitation while refusing to disclose how you manage to make a living yourself. #GotEnvy?

Ibon wrote:My symptoms are mild and of course I am not sure what it is I have. But it has persisted. Again, chills one night and slight fever. Since 8 days a constricted feeling in my chest. Occasional cough but not bringing up any sputum or anything. It is a dry cough but I am only coughing once or twice every couple of hours. Mild chills at night every day or so. I am still working up to around 90% of normal capacity but I feel this low grade flu like symptoms. Not getting worse not getting better either. We did have many guests from Europe up until March 17th. No reason to go down into town or to a hospital and get myself tested and risk exposure if this is something else.


The spice must flow! Remove all restrictions!

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 16:59:24

Trolling post deleted.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 18:14:22

Looks like you've lost your First bank!


https://www.barchart.com/story/news/465 ... e-in-store


The First State Bank based in Barboursville, WV has become the first bank to fail since the coronavirus pandemic spread across the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) made this announcement on Friday.

The FDIC noted “The First State Bank has experienced longstanding capital and asset quality issues, operating with financial difficulties since 2015.” Moreover, the bank’s capital levels as of Dec 31, 2019 were too low for legally staying operational.

Therefore, all four branches of The First State Bank, along with its deposits and certain assets were immediately acquired by MVB Bank Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MVB Financial Corp. MVBF. As of Dec 31, 2019, it had nearly $139.5 million of total deposits and $152.4 million in total assets.

While the bank’s failure was not a result of coronavirus woes, slowing down of the economy owing to the pandemic could result in a spike in such cases.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Apr 2020, 13:41:45

dolanbaker wrote:Looks like you've lost your First bank!


https://www.barchart.com/story/news/465 ... e-in-store


The First State Bank based in Barboursville, WV has become the first bank to fail since the coronavirus pandemic spread across the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) made this announcement on Friday.

The FDIC noted “The First State Bank has experienced longstanding capital and asset quality issues, operating with financial difficulties since 2015.” Moreover, the bank’s capital levels as of Dec 31, 2019 were too low for legally staying operational.

Therefore, all four branches of The First State Bank, along with its deposits and certain assets were immediately acquired by MVB Bank Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MVB Financial Corp. MVBF. As of Dec 31, 2019, it had nearly $139.5 million of total deposits and $152.4 million in total assets.

While the bank’s failure was not a result of coronavirus woes, slowing down of the economy owing to the pandemic could result in a spike in such cases.

When global economies suffer a LOT of stress, especially for months on end, to expect quite a number of banks NOT to have trouble, while almost everything else is, would be completely unrealistic, IMO.

Of course, the constant fast crash doomers will claim that automatically implies doom, but no surprise there.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 06:28:36

It is clear that normality will not return for the simple reason that several months of production and organization has been disrupted. That will knock on with a cascading effect to drop economic activity some levels that are yet unknown. I doubt this is collapse but it is a decline process that has likely marked an activity ceiling. This is not necessarily a bad outcome. A ceiling on activity would stimulate efforts to deal with climate change and unsustainable debt. This does not mean a process that is comfortable. Real damage is being done and those involved with the loss may not recover. Many will fall through the cracks and be ruined. At the macro level though a reset was needed and the virus has satisfied this. A reset could never have been agreed to by nations but the virus forced the issue. How this unfolds is yet uncertain but it is a once in a century chance to alter course with good policy if we as a global people can muster the strength to make tough decisions. Globalism should be reduced for the public good. Currently global value chains only respect economic yields. The fact the world will be poorer regardless of good or bad reaction to the crisis means some necessary degrowth was forced. Now the test, can nations come together with policy that makes the global system more sustainable and resilient to macro shocks?
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 12:54:28

.
...Stuff doom ,I'm out of the 14 days quarantine ,
got back my computer which decided to go possum on me at the most inconvenient time

got a bottle of Oban whisky to drink ( for medicinal purpose )
the news everywhere are slowly coming to admit that the world economy has driven over the cliff
like , anyone could have seen this coming one month ago , the superficial psychopathic guy in the white house
mentioned something about the cure being worst than the disease ,
everybody though he was a jerk ... yes ... he was ..he also was right


so follow the path of wisdom and invest wisely
https://www.google.com.au/shopping/prod ... ds#sgro=om
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 14:47:55

REAL Green wrote:It is clear that normality will not return for the simple reason that several months of production and organization has been disrupted. That will knock on with a cascading effect to drop economic activity some levels that are yet unknown. I doubt this is collapse but it is a decline process that has likely marked an activity ceiling. This is not necessarily a bad outcome. A ceiling on activity would stimulate efforts to deal with climate change and unsustainable debt. This does not mean a process that is comfortable. Real damage is being done and those involved with the loss may not recover. Many will fall through the cracks and be ruined. At the macro level though a reset was needed and the virus has satisfied this. A reset could never have been agreed to by nations but the virus forced the issue. How this unfolds is yet uncertain but it is a once in a century chance to alter course with good policy if we as a global people can muster the strength to make tough decisions. Globalism should be reduced for the public good. Currently global value chains only respect economic yields. The fact the world will be poorer regardless of good or bad reaction to the crisis means some necessary degrowth was forced. Now the test, can nations come together with policy that makes the global system more sustainable and resilient to macro shocks?


Excellent first post. Welcome aboard.

If you have lurked here for a while you will already know some among us who support Degrowth. It is not a comfortable topic, but necessary.

degrowth-thread-t74313-20.html
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 14:50:11

sparky wrote:.
...Stuff doom ,I'm out of the 14 days quarantine ,
got back my computer which decided to go possum on me at the most inconvenient time

got a bottle of Oban whisky to drink ( for medicinal purpose )
the news everywhere are slowly coming to admit that the world economy has driven over the cliff
like , anyone could have seen this coming one month ago , the superficial psychopathic guy in the white house
mentioned something about the cure being worst than the disease ,
everybody though he was a jerk ... yes ... he was ..he also was right


so follow the path of wisdom and invest wisely
https://www.google.com.au/shopping/prod ... ds#sgro=om


Welcome to Earth Mark 2.

Please remind me why you were in quarantine.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby sparky » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 03:05:20

.
Went back to France to bury my mother , then wanted to walk to Copenhagen
but had to stop in Flanders , coming back from an infected area ( Europe) the custom officer back home told me I had to do 14 days full isolation ,made it with a few food drops by my daughter
she didn't get me the Whisky , said that she forgot
.....One is always betrayed by the closest and dearest
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 08:11:40

LOL. :-D
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby BrianC » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 10:13:22

now that is fuuny

and now
Fed Should Pay Every American More, Let Hedge Funds and Billionaires 'Get Wiped Out', Says Social Capital CEO (marketwatch.com) 1
Posted by msmash on Friday April 10, 2020 @02:01PM from the how-about-that dept.
Is the Fed's massive coronavirus stimulus package helping the ultra-rich at the expense of ordinary American workers? That's what Chamath Palihapitiya, chief executive of venture-capital firm Social Capital LP, argued Thursday. From a story:
Appearing Thursday on CNBC, Palihapitiya said the U.S. shouldn't be bailing out billionaires and hedge funds when it's the people on Main Street who are the ones actually getting hurt. Jobless claims hit nearly 17 million on Thursday, and are likely even higher as businesses across the country close in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. Economists say the unemployment rate has likely surged above 10% and will only get worse. Palihapitiya's argument, basically, is: Let those businesses fail, but without layoffs, and let the rich stakeholders absorb the pain.

When a business typically fails, Palihapitiya said, "it does not fire their employees," instead going though a bankruptcy process that often preserves pensions, and employees end up owning more of the company in the end. "The people who get wiped out are the speculators" who own debt, and the equity holders. "These are the people that purport to be the most sophisticated investors in the world. They deserve to get wiped out," Palihapitiya said. "But he employees don't get wiped out. The pensions typically don't get wiped out." A baffled Scott Wapner, the show's host, asked why anyone "deserves" to get wiped out. "Just to be clear on who we are talking about. We're talking about a hedge fund that serves a bunch of billionaire family offices. They don't get the summer in the Hamptons?" Palihapitiya said. "Who cares? Let them get wiped out. What we've done is disproportionately prop up poor-performing CEOs and boards, and you have to wash these people out," he said.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 10:37:52

The coronavirus pandemic will turn global economic growth "sharply negative" this year, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.


World Wide Pandemics:

2009 Swine Flu: 1.4 billion infections; 1 million fatalities

1968 Hong Kong Flu: 1 billion infections: 1 million fatalities

1957 Asian Flu: 367 million infections: 1 million fatalites

Yearly Flu: 100 million infections; 650 thousand fatalities

2019 Kung Flu: 14.3 million infections: 172 thousnd fatalities

The next bad cold season should completely collapse the economy. If not; infected hang nails will be the cause of our downfall. You really didn't think that the FED was going to take the blame for 10s of millions of Americans out of a job; did you?
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby sparky » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 10:43:45

.
sound right , societies don't collapse because of one big crisis
as they got ever more dysfunctional , it take smaller and smaller push to drive them down
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 11:32:13

BrianC wrote:now that is fuuny

and now
Fed Should Pay Every American More, Let Hedge Funds and Billionaires 'Get Wiped Out', Says Social Capital CEO (marketwatch.com) 1
Posted by msmash on Friday April 10, 2020 @02:01PM from the how-about-that dept.
Is the Fed's massive coronavirus stimulus package helping the ultra-rich at the expense of ordinary American workers? That's what Chamath Palihapitiya, chief executive of venture-capital firm Social Capital LP, argued Thursday. From a story:
Appearing Thursday on CNBC, Palihapitiya said the U.S. shouldn't be bailing out billionaires and hedge funds when it's the people on Main Street who are the ones actually getting hurt. Jobless claims hit nearly 17 million on Thursday, and are likely even higher as businesses across the country close in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. Economists say the unemployment rate has likely surged above 10% and will only get worse. Palihapitiya's argument, basically, is: Let those businesses fail, but without layoffs, and let the rich stakeholders absorb the pain.

When a business typically fails, Palihapitiya said, "it does not fire their employees," instead going though a bankruptcy process that often preserves pensions, and employees end up owning more of the company in the end. "The people who get wiped out are the speculators" who own debt, and the equity holders. "These are the people that purport to be the most sophisticated investors in the world. They deserve to get wiped out," Palihapitiya said. "But he employees don't get wiped out. The pensions typically don't get wiped out." A baffled Scott Wapner, the show's host, asked why anyone "deserves" to get wiped out. "Just to be clear on who we are talking about. We're talking about a hedge fund that serves a bunch of billionaire family offices. They don't get the summer in the Hamptons?" Palihapitiya said. "Who cares? Let them get wiped out. What we've done is disproportionately prop up poor-performing CEOs and boards, and you have to wash these people out," he said.

What should happen and what will are two different things. The wealthy call the shots, they are NOT about to bury themselves. 8)
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 14 Apr 2020, 13:51:55

From another site:
"The system is broken. Farmers are bulldozing over their grown and ready to pick vegetables. They’re breaking their eggs before they can produce chickens and spilling their milk. This is taking place while the food supply chain for grocery stores is being stressed to the breaking point and stores are finding it harder to get food onto their shelves.

People are dying in nursing homes. Nurses and doctors are contracting the virus and falling sick and still don’t have enough protective gear to protect themselves. States are scrambling and competing with one another to get masks and ventilators, paying hugely bloated prices for them and the federal government intercepts the shipments going to states and confiscates them - stealing them - for itself. Trump’s son in law, speaking on behalf of Trump, says the emergency stockpile of ventilators “are ours, not the states’”.

350 workers get the virus in a meat packing plant in South Dakota because the owners ignored the danger when one had got the virus. Farm workers are told they need to continue to pick fruits and vegetables without protection because they’re job is considered “essential” and needed, but they can’t have healthcare because they’re undocumented and illegal.

People with fever and cough and suspecting being infected drive their car to a hard to find testing center and get in line at 5 or 6 PM, waiting in their cars for some 15 or more hours to be tested on the next fucking day!..."
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 Apr 2020, 16:00:36

onlooker wrote:The system is broken.


I thought this was no big deal, onlooker? What gives?

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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