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Collapsing or not?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Are we now in an accelerated phase of collapse or is this just temporary disruption ?

1. Yes we are in a process of collapse
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2. No, we will continue business as usual a while longer
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Total votes : 31

Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Zarquon » Fri 27 Mar 2020, 15:15:52

rockdoc123 wrote:In 2014 the price went just below $30 for a couple of days, this time it has been in the low $20 range for a couple of weeks and is predicted to go into the teens in the next couple of weeks.


One thing we've seen every time the price dropped was that companies everywhere slashed exploration & development budgets with a very sharp axe. In the short term that causes unemployment for oil companies and their suppliers. But over a period of a few years the lack of E&D funds, while depletion of existing fields marches on, can cause new supplies to dry up. How long will it take this time until the axe gets swung, and when will we see the impact on the supply side?
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 00:16:01

One thing we've seen every time the price dropped was that companies everywhere slashed exploration & development budgets with a very sharp axe. In the short term that causes unemployment for oil companies and their suppliers. But over a period of a few years the lack of E&D funds, while depletion of existing fields marches on, can cause new supplies to dry up. How long will it take this time until the axe gets swung, and when will we see the impact on the supply side?


The thing everyone has to remember is all of the oil war and coronavirus impacts on demand and supply do not affect how much oil North America has in the ground. It affects what we can produce in the short term economically but what everyone has to remember is that the technology is there, it isn't like we need to invent something new. Eventually, there will be a mismatch of demand and supply, like there has been countless times in the past. If Covid-19 gets solved then suddenly that demand destruction will disappear pretty quickly. If the Saudis can actually learn from past experience and figure out a way to go forward that doesn't shoot themselves in the foot then oil supply will begin to disappear along with the declines which will happen in the US due to poor current economics. Does that mean people need less oil? Only if they are unemployed I guess but if the Covid 19 thing is sorted out then that problem eventually goes away. China has shown there is pent up demand when this thing starts to sort itself out. Ask yourself this....as a consequence of the Covid-19 impact will you suddenly going forward drive less? will you buy less food? will you consume less than you normally would? will you never go on holiday again?

This is a temporary impact. Remember oil and gas are non-renewable resources. Prior to the Covid 19 influence decline in demand, the world was continually increasing its demand for oil and gas. That will be the case again when the Covid 19 issue gets more or less sorted out.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 06:06:56

@ Zarquon "How long will it take this time until the axe gets swung, and when will we see the impact on the supply side?"

that's the twenty trillions question
the oil patch troubles are compounded by a vicious drop in economic activity
quite reasonnable people put a decrease in consumption of crude at around 10 millions Barrels a day by the last quarter
that's 10% of world production , ever more oil supply chasing ever shrinking demand

this could make the last oil crisis looks like a nose bleed compared to being run over by a freight train
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 09:02:28

So what I’m imagining from glossing this thread is
Oil has tanked
Exploration will almost cease
As the virus ends cheap oil will fuel recovery
Demand will over shoot supply
With no new drilling supply will hit a hard stop
Oil prices will surge

3 to 4 year time span?
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 13:02:49

3 to 4 year time span?


It could be a heck of a lot faster if 1. someone comes up with fast testing for Covid antibodies meaning many people can go back to work immediately and the economy can gradually start up again, 2. Covid is indeed seasonal which would allow the economy to start up in say June and give health care professionals a few months to gear up for next season...it will just be another nasty seasonal flu 3. US and Canada agree on a response either through imposing a tax on all imported oil or regulating production 4. Trump reads the riot act to Saudi Arabia and increases tariffs on Russia (who don't respond to threats). It was a Black Swan event getting us here and I suspect it will be something that probably is sitting in the tails of the probability distribution that will get us out. Hence somewhat unpredictable. After the last big crash in 2014 it took just under 2 years for prices to recover to the point where oil and gas activity could increase unfettered in North America.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 13:25:33

rockdoc123 wrote:
3 to 4 year time span?


It could be a heck of a lot faster if 1. someone comes up with fast testing for Covid antibodies meaning many people can go back to work immediately and the economy can gradually start up again, 2. Covid is indeed seasonal which would allow the economy to start up in say June and give health care professionals a few months to gear up for next season...it will just be another nasty seasonal flu 3. US and Canada agree on a response either through imposing a tax on all imported oil or regulating production 4. Trump reads the riot act to Saudi Arabia and increases tariffs on Russia (who don't respond to threats). It was a Black Swan event getting us here and I suspect it will be something that probably is sitting in the tails of the probability distribution that will get us out. Hence somewhat unpredictable. After the last big crash in 2014 it took just under 2 years for prices to recover to the point where oil and gas activity could increase unfettered in North America.


Or it could take longer. Air travel is not going to bounce back to previous levels anytime soon, same is likely to be said for personal travel. Some of this unprecedented demand destruction will hang around for years. The market was already oversupplied before Coronavirus, it will remain oversupplied for years plus storage will be chock-a-block full. If we are lucky some production sharing agreement might be reached this year but it won't be in time to stop storage levels from being maxed out this summer. I would say 10 years before the next oil shortage occurs.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby JuanP » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 13:35:01

rockdoc123 wrote:
3 to 4 year time span?


It could be a heck of a lot faster if 1. someone comes up with fast testing for Covid antibodies meaning many people can go back to work immediately and the economy can gradually start up again, 2. Covid is indeed seasonal which would allow the economy to start up in say June and give health care professionals a few months to gear up for next season...it will just be another nasty seasonal flu 3. US and Canada agree on a response either through imposing a tax on all imported oil or regulating production 4. Trump reads the riot act to Saudi Arabia and increases tariffs on Russia (who don't respond to threats). It was a Black Swan event getting us here and I suspect it will be something that probably is sitting in the tails of the probability distribution that will get us out. Hence somewhat unpredictable. After the last big crash in 2014 it took just under 2 years for prices to recover to the point where oil and gas activity could increase unfettered in North America.


The Chinese have had 15 minutes testing for weeks; their third generation of test kits with no false negatives like the previous ones. Of course, if you don't believe the Chinese that is not so as far as you are concerned. I mostly believe the Chinese. I have been reading Chinese news for years and have found them to be usually accurate, definitely better than Western MSM. I know, of course, that the Chinese haters see things otherwise. I don't know where you stand on that.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 16:02:46

.
China information is OK , some stuff has to be taken with a fair bit of care but , yes , their news are useful
once they got over the initial inertia , they totally controlled the situation

It seems that the US stuffed up with the corona-virus and is going to have to suffer some consequences for it

-not taking the infection seriously early on , I'm not pro or anti Trump but he was waffling for weeks
-not testing early or intensively , that's the key as shown for Germany , South Korea , Singapore and Australia
-the US has a great hospital system if you are wealthy ,
but for the general population , its statistics are barely above third world country level
-believing free market can run a nation healthcare is like believing Santa Claus is an Historical figure
-nobody believe free market can run a nation defense ........same,same
-the supply chains are fragile , starting late resulted in all the other countries already bidding for available supplies
this result in extortionate prices and scarcity of stocks
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 18:39:50

Coronavirus Could Cause Health Premiums to Skyrocket, New Study Finds
https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/coronavirus-could-cause-health-premiums-to-skyrocket-new-study-finds/

When this 'stiumulus' was proposed and passed, it made me a bit depressed and I still don't want to see the details.

Obvioulsy, this is the primo time to start nationalizing healthcare. I don't think ANYONE but the taxpayer should be on the hook for funding this response to Coronavirus. However, the government is firmly on the side of handouts to the private sector as opposed to direct execution, such is our collective instilled fear of 'gobermint'.

Anyway, there will be a haphazard ripple effect on pricing. Seems similar to how the federal government hands out 'money' in every disaster without really managing the outcome.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 20:43:52

sparky wrote:.
China information is OK , some stuff has to be taken with a fair bit of care but , yes , their news are useful
once they got over the initial inertia , they totally controlled the situation

It seems that the US stuffed up with the corona-virus and is going to have to suffer some consequences for it

-not taking the infection seriously early on , I'm not pro or anti Trump but he was waffling for weeks
-not testing early or intensively , that's the key as shown for Germany , South Korea , Singapore and Australia
-the US has a great hospital system if you are wealthy ,
but for the general population , its statistics are barely above third world country level
-believing free market can run a nation healthcare is like believing Santa Claus is an Historical figure
-nobody believe free market can run a nation defense ........same,same
-the supply chains are fragile , starting late resulted in all the other countries already bidding for available supplies
this result in extortionate prices and scarcity of stocks

Free markets cant run the rebuild either
And without Government handouts durring the collapse there would be no free market left when its over.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 20:56:07

I think we have a very short window to help people cover their obligations, avoiding non-payment to creditors. It can be done through a combination of boosting business and helping people directly. The government could get a handle on normal payments between businesses, covering those anticipated receivables. But that wouldn't address how many who are impacted are not on the effected payrolls. Like military operations these days, many functions within large corporate structures are routinely performed by people who don't work for that corporation. It's a kind situation for the would be employer, in terms of both taxes and liabilities incurred during day to day operations. Independent contractors can't call in sick. They won't qualify for unemployment when there isn't any more work either. They technically work for themselves, even though their fortunes are tied to the availability of work contracted through the one company. But business processes can't go on everywhere without them. What you must avoid is the collapse of the money supply due to non-payment of debt. Missing this group because of too strict a set of definitions regarding qualification for payment might prove disastrous. This group probably "fudges" their taxes as much, or more, than most.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 21:15:03

evilgenius wrote:I think we have a very short window to help people cover their obligations, avoiding non-payment to creditors. It can be done through a combination of boosting business and helping people directly. The government could get a handle on normal payments between businesses, covering those anticipated receivables. But that wouldn't address how many who are impacted are not on the effected payrolls. Like military operations these days, many functions within large corporate structures are routinely performed by people who don't work for that corporation. It's a kind situation for the would be employer, in terms of both taxes and liabilities incurred during day to day operations. Independent contractors can't call in sick. They won't qualify for unemployment when there isn't any more work either. They technically work for themselves, even though their fortunes are tied to the availability of work contracted through the one company. But business processes can't go on everywhere without them. What you must avoid is the collapse of the money supply due to non-payment of debt. Missing this group because of too strict a set of definitions regarding qualification for payment might prove disastrous. This group probably "fudges" their taxes as much, or more, than most.

Good article about all this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-cur ... 52807.html
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 02:08:03

jedrider wrote:Coronavirus Could Cause Health Premiums to Skyrocket, New Study Finds
https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/coronavirus-could-cause-health-premiums-to-skyrocket-new-study-finds/

When this 'stiumulus' was proposed and passed, it made me a bit depressed and I still don't want to see the details.

Obvioulsy, this is the primo time to start nationalizing healthcare. I don't think ANYONE but the taxpayer should be on the hook for funding this response to Coronavirus. However, the government is firmly on the side of handouts to the private sector as opposed to direct execution, such is our collective instilled fear of 'gobermint'.

Anyway, there will be a haphazard ripple effect on pricing. Seems similar to how the federal government hands out 'money' in every disaster without really managing the outcome.

You don't need to nationalize healthcare to make it affordable.
It is enough to ban *all* insurance companies from it entirely, so people must pay out of pocket and also make doctors immune to lawsuits except of extreme incompetence (eg accept that occasionally doctor may make mistake very much like car mechanic can) or alternatively set a value (quantum) of maximum claim for medical error at rather low level.
In addition to it reduce length of patent protection for drugs to not more than 5 years beginning with first sale and disband all red tape preventing cheap imports of generics.
Forcefully, by means of legislation, lower all sort of "standards" which are adding a lot to price but next to nothing to quality of care.
For example chemical compound, eg drug produced according to GMP requirements will cost about 10 times as much (if not more) as identical chemical compound produced to normal industrial standards.
Analysis will show them to be equivalent in terms of purity, contaminants profiles etc.
It is a final specification what is important, not a tedious procedural process which is only making manufacturing much more expensive and prevents imports of generics which were made without following these procedures but otherwise are "as good".

Nationalized healthcare has its own ills, in Britain for example these are expressed as a famous "NHS waiting list".
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 10:25:37

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
jedrider wrote:Coronavirus Could Cause Health Premiums to Skyrocket, New Study Finds
https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/coronavirus-could-cause-health-premiums-to-skyrocket-new-study-finds/

When this 'stiumulus' was proposed and passed, it made me a bit depressed and I still don't want to see the details.

Obvioulsy, this is the primo time to start nationalizing healthcare. I don't think ANYONE but the taxpayer should be on the hook for funding this response to Coronavirus. However, the government is firmly on the side of handouts to the private sector as opposed to direct execution, such is our collective instilled fear of 'gobermint'.

Anyway, there will be a haphazard ripple effect on pricing. Seems similar to how the federal government hands out 'money' in every disaster without really managing the outcome.

You don't need to nationalize healthcare to make it affordable.
It is enough to ban *all* insurance companies from it entirely, so people must pay out of pocket and also make doctors immune to lawsuits except of extreme incompetence (eg accept that occasionally doctor may make mistake very much like car mechanic can) or alternatively set a value (quantum) of maximum claim for medical error at rather low level.
In addition to it reduce length of patent protection for drugs to not more than 5 years beginning with first sale and disband all red tape preventing cheap imports of generics.
Forcefully, by means of legislation, lower all sort of "standards" which are adding a lot to price but next to nothing to quality of care.
For example chemical compound, eg drug produced according to GMP requirements will cost about 10 times as much (if not more) as identical chemical compound produced to normal industrial standards.
Analysis will show them to be equivalent in terms of purity, contaminants profiles etc.
It is a final specification what is important, not a tedious procedural process which is only making manufacturing much more expensive and prevents imports of generics which were made without following these procedures but otherwise are "as good".

Nationalized healthcare has its own ills, in Britain for example these are expressed as a famous "NHS waiting list".


Those who defend the current health care system in the US say that it is private and you can choose. But insurance companies have rigged the pricing and your average consumer cannot shop for his health care the way he can buy any other product.

Your proposal would be the best solution and doctors could publish their rates on their website along with all their patients reviews of their service.

Independent reviews would be available on line. Any doctor over charging or cases of malpractice would be exposed in an on line review basis.

If we don't take care of our guests here at Mount Totumas they write a bad review. WE are held hostage by the threat of getting a bad review. That is why sometimes we kiss the ass of some of our guests who I would prefer to evict from our property.......

Doctors would be held hostage in the same way.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 11:22:50

In Uruguay we have both free universal health care and medicines for the whole population and private clinics and hospitals. The system is not perfect, but, IMO, it is way better than the American one, for everyone. The rich get faster, better treatment than the rest, but everybody gets more than adequate care. The government will even pay for treatment abroad and travel expenses for anyone, when that treatment is necessary and not available in the country, which doesn't happen often at all, but does with some specific health problems.

My wife was infected by a parasite in Miami last year. We have excellent health insurance. She went to the doctor and was diagnosed and prescribed 6 pills of a medicine, which name I can't remember. The charge for her was US$3,600 for the six pills, that is US$600 per pill (with insurance!), but pharmacies didn't have it in stock and told us we had to wait 2-3 days to get it. We called a doctor friend in Uruguay and he told us that in Uruguay that medicine was $10 per pill at the private hospital's pharmacy where he worked. These were exactly the same pills, from the same manufacturer, same brand and everything. He purchased them in less than an hour (as a gift) and took them to the Ministry of Foreign Relations an hour later. The ministry had them flown in to Miami overnight in a diplomatic pouch at no charge, and my wife started taking them the day after at 9am. Total cost for us $0, total wait 21 hours! The only reason we didn't purchase them in the USA was the wait, not the cost difference, but they were 60 TIMES cheaper! My wife didn't want to wait 2-3 days.

We believe the US healthcare system is essentially a scam. If a small, poor, Third World country like Uruguay has been able to provide more than adequate free healthcare for its whole population for almost a century, nobody in the world can possibly claim that the USA can't do it for its people. Americans are getting robbed blind! The idea that someone could go bankrupt from medical bills in the USA is completely unbelievable to Uruguayans!

Get well soon, Ibon! It's been 5 days since we were exposed to COVID-19 and we have no symptoms yet.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 15:00:53

Get well soon, Ibon! It's been 5 days since we were exposed to COVID-19 and we have no symptoms yet.


What did I miss???
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 15:08:05

Newfie wrote:
Get well soon, Ibon! It's been 5 days since we were exposed to COVID-19 and we have no symptoms yet.


What did I miss???

Ibon had 200 European tourists over and has had symptoms for 8 days. My wife and I worked for a day on Tuesday with a volunteer at the farm, the volunteer got sick the day after, and tested positive, so we are in quarantine.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby FuelShortageComing » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 15:44:29

California: The Shutdown Begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtcBLhp5wNw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d06nHPbmRaw

video is 18 mars 2020. it is a bit old but still relevant. Printing money won't work if there is no goods to buy because the supply chain is down

One comment from video above:
The transients have moved from downtown in my city and now are strong arming the elderly in supermarket parking lots by threatening to touch them, the cops will no longer respond unless blood is shed or a gun is present.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby FuelShortageComing » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 16:53:44

ddd
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 29 Mar 2020, 19:44:04

JuanP wrote:
Newfie wrote:
Get well soon, Ibon! It's been 5 days since we were exposed to COVID-19 and we have no symptoms yet.


What did I miss???

Ibon had 200 European tourists over and has had symptoms for 8 days. My wife and I worked for a day on Tuesday with a volunteer at the farm, the volunteer got sick the day after, and tested positive, so we are in quarantine.


My symptoms are mild and of course I am not sure what it is I have. But it has persisted. Again, chills one night and slight fever. Since 8 days a constricted feeling in my chest. Occasional cough but not bringing up any sputum or anything. It is a dry cough but I am only coughing once or twice every couple of hours. Mild chills at night every day or so. I am still working up to around 90% of normal capacity but I feel this low grade flu like symptoms. Not getting worse not getting better either. We did have many guests from Europe up until March 17th. No reason to go down into town or to a hospital and get myself tested and risk exposure if this is something else.
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