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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 27 Sep 2021, 12:58:38

Newfie wrote:We naturally tend to think of collapse from our personal perspective. And most if not all of us here are from relatively large Westernized nations.

Here is another voice from small nations, island nations.

https://apnews.com/article/climate-chan ... 5f2a83b811


Sounds like the tyranny of geography. Don't they face the same issues as the westernized nations, just on a different time scale? And they have less resources and topography to apply to any adaption strategy in the first place.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 27 Sep 2021, 16:46:14

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Why not just act like an adult and admit you were wrong, stop hurting your crediblity, and move on? :idea:


You're expecting too much from a door knob.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby suxs » Sat 02 Oct 2021, 01:18:59

You're quite the slippery one, outcast. Let's stay on topic since you initiated this stupidity. You can't show me where I said or inferred methane is not a GHG for the simple reason it was never stated except in your adult imagination. This is what happens when you insert yourself into conversations that don't involve you. You imagine statements that never existed because it fits your pre-conceived narrative.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Oct 2021, 15:46:55

suxs wrote:You're quite the slippery one, outcast. Let's stay on topic since you initiated this stupidity. You can't show me where I said or inferred methane is not a GHG for the simple reason it was never stated except in your adult imagination. This is what happens when you insert yourself into conversations that don't involve you. You imagine statements that never existed because it fits your pre-conceived narrative.

Yeah, given the thread above, I believe everything you say. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Sat 16 Oct 2021, 21:21:10

Lebanon, India, Puerto Rico, maybe Great Britain. Just to name a few places where the electricity grid is failing. Is it a collapse? We'll see...
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Oct 2021, 15:12:44

Revi wrote:Lebanon, India, Puerto Rico, maybe Great Britain. Just to name a few places where the electricity grid is failing. Is it a collapse? We'll see...


"is failing"? Is the UK out of electricity? Really? Or did it just get expensive? Do you seriously believe that the UK is running out of something, as opposed to some politically induced JIT delivery problem? Or refusal to develop their own domestic resources of energy (it isn't like the US hasn't prototyped and mass produced the answer for the world with natural gas from shales)?

These are two different concepts, oftentimes confused by those looking for doom, rather than interested in a discussion of reality. In reality, things getting expensive aren't a "fail", it is called economics, it is a signal that something has changed, at the micro or macro level, and with a substantial change in prices, there is a reaction between the supply and demand. Just as peak oil 2008 circa $148/bbl oil caused a reaction (more expensive tight formations began development, increasing supply), higher prices in England or elsewhere might do the same. Build more windmills maybe? Nukes? Who knows, but the Brits can afford it, and with luck will, regardless of fault, will vote out all the politicians in the meantime. Maybe get some decent protests going?

The problem appears to be twofold, economically ignorant folk think that prices they don't object to are never subject to change, and doomers looking for any excuse to pretend doom has arrived reach for inconsequential changes in anything, and claim it is doom. Usually using whatever 3rd World countries or mismanagement examples (including in the case of Puerto Rico outright corruption and "on purpose" problems rather than just mismanagement) happen to be handy.

As to whether or not you learn from more than a decade of playing this end of the world game and get better at recognizing real signals of potential trouble, well, we'll see.... :roll:
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 01:27:36

Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 08:30:49

Image Image Image

These were from a few years ago, after a hurricane. The worst if the worst was East of here. Also this was some months after the storm.

The Jersey barriers are around washouts. They are in the mountain regions, obviously. What I noticed was that many of these barriers had been in place long before the hurricane. Some, like the one pictured, for many years.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 16:45:04

I imagine the roman empire went through a similar slow collapse of infrastructure as it's energy base, slaves, and it's wealth, loot, began to dry up. I have a copy of Gibbon's "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" and tonight I'll see if he covers this in much detail. The trouble with his work is that it's more like a novel, all the pertinent information is there, it's just not laid out in a logical format. But that's old England for you. The index is devoid of references to roads, bridges, infrastructure in general.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 17:26:28

Trying to wade through that now.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 04:43:01

It's hopeless, and probably too outdated anyway. I found this piece in my travels though.

The reasons for the fall of the Western Roman Empire have remained a mystery for modern historians, just as for the Romans themselves. Yet, recent data from the Greenland ice core [lead samples] provide us with new data on collapse of the Empire, showing how fast and brutal it was – a true “Seneca Collapse.” Could our civilization go the same way? ...

...We have scant direct data on the production of the Roman mines, but we know that progressive depletion forced the Romans to go deeper and deeper into the veins of precious metals they were exploiting in Spain. That required more and more expensive procedures and equipment. The mining system gradually became a terrible burden for the Roman economy and, eventually, something had to give. We don’t know exactly what broke the back of the Roman mining system – maybe a political crisis or the Antonine Plague (*) – but, in any case, by the end of the 2nd century AD, the mines were abandoned. The pumps ceased to function, the shafts were flooded with water, and the production of precious metals stopped. Without a constant supply precious metals, the Roman gold disappeared, used to buy luxury items from China. Without gold, the Roman economic system couldn’t work – at least not in the same way as before...


https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018 ... an-empire/
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 09:41:46

Revi wrote:Puerto Rico gets most of it's power from fossil fuels. 97% as it turns out. It's in real trouble.


It has been in trouble for a long time. Fossil fuels have nothing to do with its corruption and mismanagement.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 09:44:51

theluckycountry wrote:I imagine the roman empire went through a similar slow collapse of infrastructure as it's energy base, slaves, and it's wealth, loot, began to dry up.


Quite probably true. Good thing Puerto Rico ain't the U.S., but some weird half inherited, half Caribbean after thought to a war so far in the past everyone has forgotten how we got stuck with the place. Remember The Maine!
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Thu 21 Oct 2021, 21:43:40

AdamB wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:I imagine the roman empire went through a similar slow collapse of infrastructure as it's energy base, slaves, and it's wealth, loot, began to dry up.


Quite probably true. Good thing Puerto Rico ain't the U.S., but some weird half inherited, half Caribbean after thought to a war so far in the past everyone has forgotten how we got stuck with the place. Remember The Maine!

That's what I like about Puerto Rico. I never knew you could live in Latin America and the US at the same time! It's an amazing tiny country. We went with my Spanish students and science teachers. We visited a rainforest, dry forest, Arecibo observatory, caves, phosphorescent bay, beaches galore. Salsa danced and had a great time! !Me encanta Borinquen! It makes me sad to see it failing.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Oct 2021, 07:58:33

Revi,

I too have a history with PR. We personally favor El Yunque. Done most of the stuff mention.

We have a June reservation to haul out for hurricane season. So I am hoping it does not go too far down.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 14:16:52

Collapse won't happen? It will 100% happen. Anyone saying it won't happen is either ignorant or denial of the unsustainability of human civilization. The following article, written in 1995, explains why collapse of human civilization is inevitable

It is called "Energy and Human Evolution"

https://dieoff.com/page137.htm

If you think peak oil and climate change are the only reasons for modern civilization's unsustainability, you clearly are missing the bigger picture. Human civilization is inherently unsustainable, and no amount of technology will fix that.

And the SHTF/collapse of industrial civilization will probably happen within this decade. If we are very lucky, we might be able to delay it until 2030, but not anymore than that. By 2040, human civilization will be LONG gone.

Collapse of Industrial Civilization is inevitable. CoIC, and its vast amount of economic specialization, combined with simultaneous, global ecological collapse can very easily lead to human extinction. Which will probably happen. Near term human extinction is probably going to happen. Probably by the end of this century. I don't see how humanity can survive beyond the CoIC because this species is clearly doomed.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 14:51:39

DesuMaiden wrote:Collapse won't happen? It will 100% happen.


There should probably be a disclaimer for everyone who claims or disputes "collapse" to define what it is. To some, 50% of the world population needs to dieoff before it can really be a collapse, there are some half baked perma-doomers around here like Armie who said it happened a decade ago, and we just all didn't notice.

Of course collapse will happen. The Sun will run low on hydrogen, begin fusing helium and somewhere along the way expand enough to boil away the oceans and melt the entire Earth down into component parts. I'm betting your definition of collapse isn't near as thorough or certain as this one though.

DesuMaiden wrote:Anyone saying it won't happen is either ignorant or denial of the unsustainability of human civilization.


Indeed. Or just missed astronomy class one day in college?

DesuMaiden wrote:The following article, written in 1995, explains why collapse of human civilization is inevitable


Oh please! I'll see your 1995 and raise you Isaac Asimov, in the Washington Post, in 1979!

Silly doomers, thinking that if they just keep claiming the end and booting it down the road a quarter century at a time one of them will get to declare victory when in fact, there can be no victory, and it's all about the physics and not the endlessly recycling of all the reasons why civilization didn't collapse all those other times, and pretend they will finally work next time.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 16:11:13

DesuMaiden wrote:Collapse won't happen? It will 100% happen. Anyone saying it won't happen is either ignorant or denial of the unsustainability of human civilization. The following article, written in 1995, explains why collapse of human civilization is inevitable

But it won't likely happen next week or month or year, the way many collapseniks around here love to pretend it will, as they endlessly show charts having the rapid oil decline about to start -- and them move the dates out on a regular basis.

And Adam is right -- the lack of firm definitions of terms like "collapse" from the insta-doomers around here gives them little credibility.

Since it will take many decades or centuries, repeating it endlessly doesn't accomplish much.

Meanwhile, though late, green energy does continue to build serious momentum. And re AGW anyway, that can only help with one big real world problem, re delaying very bad results. Just for one example.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 19:05:54

FWIW I throughly agree that we often argue about poorly defined positions. It is not only the Scale but also the Timeline and Rate of Change.

AND, I have carrying and repeating my list of 5 Big Issues for tar to long; Climate Change is one issue and oil depletion is only part of a more general issue.

This is a big reason why these topics are so difficult to discuss in this format.

Limits to Growth did a fair job of defining the risks and the initial symptoms of collapse. I suspect that we are starting to experience early stage collapse; the system is having trouble adjusting. Will this be a transitory thing with another stable period (for a while) or are we gonna fall off a cliff?

Stay tuned for next weeks exciting episode.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 20:57:20

Newfie wrote:FWIW I throughly agree that we often argue about poorly defined positions. It is not only the Scale but also the Timeline and Rate of Change.

AND, I have carrying and repeating my list of 5 Big Issues for tar to long; Climate Change is one issue and oil depletion is only part of a more general issue.

This is a big reason why these topics are so difficult to discuss in this format.

Limits to Growth did a fair job of defining the risks and the initial symptoms of collapse. I suspect that we are starting to experience early stage collapse; the system is having trouble adjusting. Will this be a transitory thing with another stable period (for a while) or are we gonna fall off a cliff?

Stay tuned for next weeks exciting episode.


I think it will result in falling off the cliff. Right now the price of off road diesel is $3.80. Lots of people in my neighborhood heat their houses with it. It's going to cost them like $16 a day to do that in the cold months. That's $112 a week. They don't have that much on top of groceries and rent. It's going to be a long, cold winter and some will have their pipes freeze which will add to their woes. It's a collapse already here in Maine.
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