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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 18:07:00

ennui2 wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:...we are running out of the ability to produce what we drill at a rate that can meet demand.


All possible asterisks you can slap on this fact aside, supply at present exceeds demand. If you don't concede this point, you are decoupled from reality.


Who disagrees? But we are running out of the ability to make that happen. If you don't concede this point, you are decoupled from reality.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 18:07:56

There is a submit news button in the sidebar, I'm sure admin would appreciate all relevant input, he handles the front page.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 18:08:37

pstarr wrote:it seems you hate everyone.


Pot calling the kettle black.

For the record, I don't hate Monte and was only challenging his opinions, not attacking him as a person the way you most often do with your mockery and sarcasm.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 18:10:49

MonteQuest wrote:Who disagrees? But we are running out of the ability to make that happen. If you don't concede this point, you are decoupled from reality.


I agree, but the above statement is so vague as to not hold much value in being a source of discussion.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 18:17:31

ennui2 wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:Who disagrees? But we are running out of the ability to make that happen. If you don't concede this point, you are decoupled from reality.


I agree, but the above statement is so vague as to not hold much value in being a source of discussion.


Vague? Now, there's a quirky response of little value.

How about a metaphor: We've picked all the low hanging fruit.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 20:28:29

Newfie wrote:
Cog wrote:ennui is quite correct for bringing up things that some people want to flush down the memory hole.

Its an inconvenient truth for some, that their predictions were radically incorrect. Too bad.


Yes, it is important to remember just now complex our world is.

It should also be a reminder that predictions of continued prosperity without consequence as just as I'll founded.

You don't know what you don't know and this chaotic system can take all kinds of weird twists and turns.

Now just throw in a big meteor, super volcano, sudden collapse of some first world power, or spread of panic and distrust though the financial markets and it's a right nasty mess to predict.

Belief in continued prosperity is a prediction too! :badgrin:


Probably driven by increased credit creation across several decades:

http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/ ... s-of-debt/

to deal partly with peak oil production per capita:

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... k-oil.html
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 01:35:57

ennui2 wrote:When people appeal to authority, I want to see Time, Newsweek, CNBC, sources like that. And they DO report on doomy topics now and then, just not with the same frequency or panic as these others.

They DO depend on advertisers who want to boost consumer confidence and sell cars, etc. They always end articles with a happy-talk technology-will-save-us paragraph.

Do you really think their journalists have a clue about PO and other resource and environmental limits?
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 01:40:44

They the journalists may have a clue but their under strict order not to divulge anything. Not withstanding claims maid by some here, the MSM rarely speaks of the underlying basis of humanities predicaments namely overshoot and a degraded biosphere. When their are stories it is about the symptoms without connecting the dots or being all that deep in any analysis. From my experience only books, a few documentaries and some websites are really divulging the full story of the present state of the planet and humanity.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 05:01:17

I have in the last two years been converted from "fast crash" to "slow crash" in my thinking about peak oil. In fact, I think that the average American lifestyle has been declining since the 1970s, and will continue to deteriorate throughout our lives, until we reach the level where our consumption of just about everything approaches the average level throughout the world.

Like that Sixth Mass Extinction "event" that happened around 1800 when the world population of humans exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet, and we began to cause irrecoverable damage that is still accelerating today. It is an "event" only when considered on a geological timescale, it has already been happening for 12 human generations, and is not noticed by most people.

The "Long Emergency" is the best description, I believe. It began around the mid 1970s, and has spanned three human generations since then. I will live a poorer existence than did my Father, whose life spanned the Great Depression, WW2, and the incredible events of the electronic age, and who was baffled by PCs and the Internet. The slow deterioration will span at least three more generations is my belief, and there is simply no way to predict what life in 2070 will be like, or whether we will reach a steady state or (less likely) enter collapse.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 10:58:05

onlooker wrote:They the journalists may have a clue but their under strict order not to divulge anything. Not withstanding claims maid by some here, the MSM rarely speaks of the underlying basis of humanities predicaments namely overshoot and a degraded biosphere. When their are stories it is about the symptoms without connecting the dots or being all that deep in any analysis. From my experience only books, a few documentaries and some websites are really divulging the full story of the present state of the planet and humanity.


News content is market driven, for eyeballs, for advertising.

Is it surprising it supports a pro capital, Pro consumer, pro BAU approach?

There is no cabal. Which is a pity, if there was wwe could shoot it.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 11:04:32

Newfie, I would respectfully note that the fact that the media is backed by advertising and that advertising obviously has a BAU objective, does not discount the fact that all this came about because someone(s) wanted it to be. When people dispute the veracity of the existence of a Cabal, I would offer the reasoning that the human world has been and is human induced and crafted. The modern world did not arise out of mere chaos and random chance.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 11:40:21

Speaking from the common man perspective, I'm pretty happy that for as may times collapse with peak oil has been claimed, now that it has arrived, it turns out to be collapse for Big Oil and a boon for the consumers!

Bummer for Big Oil:

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oi ... llers.html

Boon for consumers!

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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 12:26:05

onlooker wrote:all this came about because someone(s) wanted it to be.


Sorry, this is merely a psychological phenomenon in your own head, the same rationale that leads people towards intelligent design.

There is no "someone". There is just the flocking behavior of homo sapiens, in other words, the invisible hand. It's down to every decision we make, everything we eat, everything we purchase, every pull of the voting lever, etc... We've met the enemy and it's us.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 12:57:06

Ennui I do not recall any vote on the massive industrialization and consumerism frenzy of the 20th century. Yes we got to choose what products to purchase but not on the scale and trajectory of unbridled capitalism. In fact quite the opposite, in the late 19th and 20th century, community activism along with some help from the government reined in the Robber Barons of that age. Did we chose cars over electric transportation or mass transit. NO. We simply got to chose which cars to buy. In fact did we really chose to exploit fossil fuels to the degree we have. Again NO. Renewable energy was an option back then when population was not so great. These were all decisions decided by elites in different spheres of the political/economic matrix. Did we chose to have the Federal Reserve Central Bank situated and operating in this country. NO. This was a decision done in secret in a place called Jeckyll Island at the beginning of the 20th century. Have we voted in the ballot box or with our wallets to fashion this modern day Empire that is the US. In all the subterfuge of interference and intervening by the US in other countries, the masses did not explicitly chose this course. The masses are guilty for feeding the machine, with consumerism and greed. But those who designed the machine did so knowing we would respond favorably. Did they do it for us? Hardly. They did it for themselves to enjoy the privileges of wealth including power that comes with wealth whereby power becomes an end in itself. The most accurate way of describing is we have been herded along certain paths and yes we accepted going along those paths because it did afford some positive consequences. Again I can offer many more examples, like our genocide committed on the American Indians. I leave you Ennui with this video on the slight chance that it will open your eyes. If not so be it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbp6umQ ... sw&index=2
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 13:55:54

onlooker wrote:Ennui I do not recall any vote on the massive industrialization and consumerism frenzy of the 20th century.


You vote by supporting BAU. BAU does what is necessary to support itself. One hand does not know what the other hand does, nor does it want to. We'll just keep having this argument to the end of time. People want to have their cake and eat it too. Can't happen except in people's utopia imaginations.

Sorry to crash people's hater party, but what I'm saying is no different from Monte restating tragedy of the commons. To try to anthropomorphize tragedy of the commons, to shape a boogeyman out of it, really is a psychological thing and not reflective of the diffuse/amorphous form of BAU itself.

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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 14:14:56

We'll just keep having this argument to the end of time.

That actually makes me laugh, at least we are being civil in our debate. Okay where I can meet you halfway is to say that our human nature has been instrumental in leading us on this road. As you said the Tragedy of the Commons is a sound argument. Furthermore, one can say that a particular type of person is best suited to be a leader or elite person in our societies the way they evolved. This person being characterized by a zeal for power and wealth consistent with the environment in which we have chosen to evolve. Group dynamics interlaced with selfish material gain interlaced with power dynamics. All this juxtaposition magnified by the population size who manifest similar traits. So that those who lead are those who ascribe to the prevailing Ethos and in fact do so to the highest extremes. All this then leading to having a class of people at the top who are utterly absorbed by selfish considerations of wealth and power. So what I am doing is making the case that your theory and mine are not mutually exclusive rather that they reinforce and nurture each other. Society wanting wealth and power and its leaders being the most ardent subscribers of this creed. So we have juxtaposed our theories to make just one. Maybe this will end our debate maybe not. I will say it has been interesting though Ennui. 8)
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 14:31:29

onlooker wrote:All this then leading to having a class of people at the top who are utterly absorbed by selfish considerations of wealth and power.


OK, stop for a moment and look at that sentence you wrote. Look at the anger and judgment just oozing and radiating out of those words.

That anger comes from this desire on your part for the world to be a better place. It's idealism. A desire for utopia.

As they say, a cynic is nothing but a disappointed idealist.

What I've learned in my 45 years on this planet is that holding up a lens to the injustice in the world doesn't lead to positive change. This is because I believe that, by and large, people just don't care about anybody but themselves, and that acts of altruism are the exception, not the norm.

The resistance of some to come to that misanthropic conclusion seems to come in the form of some sort of classification system, i.e. class or demographic warfare. Entire groups of people are set aside and labeled. Good basket and bad basket. Noble savages, rich vs. poor, white vs. minority, lib vs. con.

I've found that the longer you wrestle with these sorts of problems that the more I come to the conclusion that people are people. The things that drive someone to become a Hitler or a Rex Tillerman are present in all of us. They just emerge in different ways.

So as depressing as it is, I've come to the conclusion that human nature is the root cause of all of our problems and it's not something we can ever solve. Heading to washington or the country club with knives and pitch-forks merely treats the symptoms and not the cause. We can't cure it because this is who we (collectively) are.

Does that mean I think we should acquiesse to the worst cases of injustice? No. But the implicit statement in your words that there is some evil "otherness" that can be stomped out if we properly label it and shove them over a cliff, that simply will not work anymore than it did in Animal Farm.

If there's anything in my current position that still qualifies me as a doomer, it's my conviction that we are indeed in the age of consequences. What we see with limits to growth, etc... is the end product of our internal wiring as a flawed species. Call it tragedy of the commons, original sin, whatever. But it is the net product, the butterfly effect over thousands of years. To expect some sort of global epiphany or some new -ism to solve everything ignores the fact we have all collectively edged ourselves to the cliff generation after generation.

I don't think this has happened against our will the way books like Ishmael posit, that it's a civilization meme gone haywire. I think ultimately it's been voluntary, i.e. tragedy of the commons.
Last edited by ennui2 on Tue 29 Dec 2015, 14:36:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 14:36:05

Good argument Ennui, I will ponder it some.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 14:53:12

Okay Ennui we start with the shared premise that Human nature is flawed. When I point out the existence of the Cabal and its characteristics it is completely consistent with what you are expounding. If I seem to lash out on them is because they exhibit the worst part of ourselves. Their are countless examples of our better side in the way we deal with our family, in acts of selfishness that surely you must have witnessed, even in group dynamics where one is loyal to ones group to an extreme. So my condemnation is not of a group of people ie. Cabal it is of actions derived from the worse part of our common human nature. To renounce and denounce this part is what all of us should have always done. The denouncing and condemnation of might makes right, of violence etc. Some in the course of their lives did and have. Other have not. In the end to denounce this negative side of ourselves can be the first step in controlling and managing it. But this is a road we must all walk alone.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 14:55:19

Mods sorry for the off topic rambling. Feel free to transfer this recent exchange to a more appropriate thread. I will cease talking about this on this thread.
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