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Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby careinke » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:33:41

Cliffhanger1983 wrote: And yes I might be younger then you but I am a scientist who holds a Phd in Quantum Chemistry...


Quantum Chemistry, I never even considered it, but it sounds interesting. What kinds of use cases is there for it? Are there practical uses? Guess I'll do some research.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:33:58

AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the-collapse-of-global-civilization-has-begun-b527c649754c
The Collapse of Global Civilization Has Begun


Again? Any chance folks will notice this one?

Not the ones here asleep. They seem to be comatose :-D
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:39:13

onlooker wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the-collapse-of-global-civilization-has-begun-b527c649754c
The Collapse of Global Civilization Has Begun


Again? Any chance folks will notice this one?

Not the ones here asleep. They seem to be comatose :-D


I'm considering setting up a doomer website and cash in on the rubes. Maybe you can help me out onlooker. You feed me the doom and I'll handle separating people from their money. How does that sound?
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:42:23

You know the idea is not half bad. We both seem to be good at what we do haha
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Dynamics of Collapse

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:16:15

The Dynamics of Collapse
https://edro.wordpress.com/collapsing-cities/
The following exhibit lists the most probable [leading] causes that would drive the first wave of world’s cities to collapse. [Note: Data is listed alphabetically]

Accumulation of toxic pollution in the environment
Civil conflict
Collapse of fisheries/fish species
Collapse of natural pest regulation systems
Corporate mass homicide
Deforestation
Desertification
Droughts
Economic collapse
Epidemics of plant and animal diseases
Excessive energy consumption
Extreme climatic events (including extreme rain events, floods)
Failing ecosystems
Famine
Foodborne, waterborne, airborne and insectborne infectious diseases (viral, bacterial, parasitic, fungal, prion)
Fuel shortage
Global collapse of pollinators
Habitat destruction
Human-enhanced natural catastrophes including earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, tropical storms, cyclones, extreme rainfall events, landslides, volcanic eruptions, droughts and wildfires …
Human-induced climate change
Increased UV radiation
Industrial accidents (including radionuclide, chemical and oil spills)
Inordinate prevalence of psychopathology caused by exponential growth economy: money fetishism, industrialism, militarism, atomistic lifestyles, consumerism, throwaway culture, dysfunctional societies …
Land use change
Loss of Topsoil
Loss of Will to Live
Mass migrations
Mass murder/suicide as a result of neurological disorder caused by mercury [other heavy metals,] poisoning, biochemical poisoning, contaminated food and water supplies, tainted drugs especially vaccines
Moral decline (unethical behavior, unsustainable lifestyles, overconsumption)
New Strains of Superbugs, super bacteria, killer fungi
Overshoot of Carrying Capacity; Increased ecological footprint; Overpopulation (esp. DCs*)
Overwhelmed by mounting waste: agricultural, municipal (garbage and sewage) and industrial
Poor global harvest/Food scarcity [Humans are one harvest away from starvation!]
Poverty
Running Dry (Running out of freshwater)
Sinking into the ground (large-scale subsidence caused by overuse of groundwater supplies)
Societal collapse
Soil degradation (salination, erosion … )
Spread of pandemic diseases
The American Dream (and its global equivalents)
The death of truth, surrender of concreteness to abstractions, defeat of ‘right’ by ‘sight,’ loss of reason [and the essential faculties needed] to advance to the future
Tourism [euphemistically, eco-tourism]
War (conventional and nuclear)
Unnamed mechanisms
Unknown causes or new mechanisms of collapse
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Re: Dynamics of Collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:20:22

Nice list. Of course, most and perhaps all are tightly interrelated with others on the list in complex (and sometimes straightforward) ways.

You listed them alphabetically.

Would you care to list them in the order you see as greatest threat first...?

That may lead to a more interesting conversation/debate than just the laundry list (if the usual trolls stay away for a while :) ).
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Re: Dynamics of Collapse

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:31:49

Okay D, I will list the first 5 that I see most likely and the soonest to cause Collapse and as you said in a synergistic combined manner. Umm, I must be subconsciously in dour mood to wish to speak about this tonight haha: Note not necessarily in any order
1. Drought
2. Economic collapse
3. War
4. New Strains of Superbugs, super bacteria, killer fungi ie. Pandemic
5. Running out of fresh water
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Re: Dynamics of Collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:36:03

Well, drought does seem to be hitting CA hard again:

his is brutal. Not a drop of rain is forecast for southern California through at least December 20th.
It's the rainy season there—in name only at the moment.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 3501930496

Wow. That's an incredibly dry 16-day precipitation accumulation forecast for December along the West Coast! Ensembles & ECMWF very similar. #CAwx #ORwx #WAwx #BCwx
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status ... 3429909504


This week in Southern California, "extreme fire danger" edition:

Temperatures in the 80s
Hurricane force wind gusts
Relative humidity less than 10%
"Potential for very rapid fire growth"

It's December!
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 4743097344

But keep in mind that the ~7% increase in water vapor in the atmosphere with every increased degree C in global temps means that over all more places will be wetter than drier, and the we will more and more come in extreme deluges.

But yeah, the warmth also means that certain places that miss that moisture for various reasons will be getting very dry indeed. And some places no used to high levels of drought will rather suddenly see not just drought but total desertification...such as Southern Europe as the Sahara essentially moves north.

Thanks for the response. More later.
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Re: Dynamics of Collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 20:46:07

...

Did I just say something about trolls?

...
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Re: Dynamics of Collapse

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 20:54:13

A troll, a hippie it is all in the eyes of the beholder like beauty :-D
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Imminent economic collapse in 2018!!

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 22:43:23

Will the US Economic Collapse Happen in 2018? The economic forecast for 2018 is more than bleak, and there is more than enough economic data out there to show there could be an economic collapse and stock market crash in 2018.
Imminent Collapse in 2018!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 15:07:13

Not only is collapse by 2025 not certain, but despite all the pessimistic claims about how nothing of import ever happens any more re progress and invention, I'm noticing a batch of major new ideas and technologies that are converging and overlapping to produce the real potential for vast improvements for humanity's situation, that were unimaginable (aside from science fiction) just a couple of decades ago.

Whether it be the progress and ongoing promise of the green energy ramp-up, AI yielding things like driverless cars and automating more and more basic processes and improving others, the potential for affordable lab grown green meat, and even simple things like all the side benefits and products from something like the GPS system, lots of very good things are going on.

Nirvana? Of course not. But certainly heading in the opposite direction of imminent collapse.

If, in 30 years, for example, the vast majority of meat can be vat grown, the vast majority of transportation can be battery powered (and the batteries charged by green energy), and of course heating and cooling being mostly green as well -- look what THAT does to the rate of GHG production.

....

And I know -- the fast crash doomer crowd will claim that technology can't or won't advance -- and be wrong as they have for the past bazillion predictions in recent decades, so don't bother.

If you balance stuff like that against BAU growth and general stupidity, it certainly makes the case to help BAU continue in the coming decades.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 15:28:17

Since there is no common definition of "collapse" it is easy to refute. Just describe it as a series of events that few would agree with. A thus it's easy to refute such a "collapse".
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 15:28:50

I myself have never made the case that technology cannot advance. What I have tried to show is we are too reliant on it and too smug about the possibilities it affords to continue sustaining this huge human population and its negative impacts on our earthly environment. To my knowledge none of you optimists have ever been able to articulate well how we can maintain BAU with current or higher population levels and current pernicious technologies.
Oh and by the way, the arguments for techology and progress fail to address our social ills. How we have created such a world of extreme inequality and injustice. That certainly will not be fixed by any technology. At least Kaiser resonates coherently with his assertion of it cannot be fixed because it is in our primate nature to act as such. Oh and finally you can find with a quick search that the Limits to Growth scenarios modelered in the 70's are right on track to terminating our extreme dominance on this planet. Because, as a good example if we were to find and develop a almost limitless and clean energy source, that in turn would allow human populations to grow ever more straining other resources and degrading the ecosystems even more and producing ever more harmful waste products. All this leading to unlivable conditions given the limits to functionality, production and clean up of the Environment.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 15:32:26

onlooker wrote:Not the ones here asleep. They seem to be comatose :-D

And of course, anyone who disagrees with the fast crash doomers, despite them being wrong literally thousands of times over the decades, yet it's reset and repeat as though THIS time they'll be right, is "asleep". :roll: As though ignoring all facts that disagree with one's narrow viewpoint of religious intensity is being "awake". :!:

Yeah, that makes sense...
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 19:14:55

onlooker wrote: How we have created such a world of extreme inequality and injustice.

We modern humans came into a world of extreme inequality and injustice some fifteen thousand years ago. We just have never found a way to fix it. Western civilization has made a good stab at it with millions living in much better then barely adequate conditions free from daily crime from the strongmen around them. We have come a long way from the biggest man with a club owning everything he can lay his hands on.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 19:56:03

Not quite. Many millions and into the billions barely live better than their distant ancestors. 2 billion plus without sanitation, Over a billion lacking in electricity, same for potable water. 3 billion living on less than 2 dollars a day, 1 billion on less than 1 dollar a day.
And then at the social instability unleashed by the ethos of greed and corresponding envy. Not to mention the wholesale enslavement and genocide of peoples by the European powers and the US.
Which brings us to the modern age of a few people having unimaginable wealth and about 20% of the worlds population relative wealth and the other 80% living impoverished, stunted lives of grinding poverty with little access to adequate healthcare, education or upward mobility
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 20:45:18

onlooker wrote:Not quite. Many millions and into the billions barely live better than their distant ancestors. 2 billion plus without sanitation, Over a billion lacking in electricity, same for potable water. 3 billion living on less than 2 dollars a day, 1 billion on less than 1 dollar a day.
And then at the social instability unleashed by the ethos of greed and corresponding envy. Not to mention the wholesale enslavement and genocide of peoples by the European powers and the US.
Which brings us to the modern age of a few people having unimaginable wealth and about 20% of the worlds population relative wealth and the other 80% living impoverished, stunted lives of grinding poverty with little access to adequate healthcare, education or upward mobility
Well yes the third world strongman has traded his club for an AK-47 but having 20% of seven billion living in relative wealth (1.4 billion) is quite an achievement considering what percentage of say the ancient Egyptians lived as well as the pharaohs. Perhaps the 1.4 billion is the sustainable level we will end up at.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 20:52:25

V, I will I think reach common ground with you by saying that overpopulation has exacerbated poor standards of life for many and is the underlying problem of our species
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 20:58:22

onlooker wrote:V, I will I think reach common ground with you by saying that overpopulation has exacerbated poor standards of life for many and is the underlying problem of our species

Agreed!
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