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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 09:44:02

No one needs physics or to be an engineer to third this stuff out. It’s pretty simple really. There is much past evidence of warming in history books. There is much evidence of humanities effect on mega fauna. We invented agriculture and irrigation. We invented fish mining.

Step back, grab a coffee, look at the BIG trends. Warming, Resource Depletion, population, evolution and you get the idea that all the cards are stacked one way.

Just common sense. IF you step back and take a larger view.

(As an Prifessional Electrical Engineer I can tell some pretty stories also, more about how mucked up our management systems are.)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 12:35:42

To quibble about our EXACT degree of influence is not a productive exercise. And even more important to delay at this stage, our intervention is bordering on reckless given the potential impacts


I disagree. When you talk about intervention you likely aren't referring to individuals driving less or using electric cars instead of internal combustion driven vehicles. You are likely referring to all of the billions of dollars that will be spent on various climate abatement schemes. The estimate I am aware of is that by 2030 if all of these schemes were implemented it would cost about $300 billion per year. Now that is small in comparison to projected GDP for 2030 but the question that needs to be asked is what other issues could be easily solved (and measurable) with that same investment? Global poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare are things that should be at the top of the list. The success of such climate abatement schemes are completely predicated on the belief that man is responsible for warming to the degree the current IPPC models suggest (almost solely responsible). If those models are incorrect (and there is a lot of literature that suggests that is possible) then that money spent on abatement schemes is a very bad investment and a huge lost opportunity cost.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 13:10:56

By the same token, we know the age of FF is getting closer to ending and the "Climate change will wipe $2.5tn off global financial assets: study" "Losses could soar to $24tn and wreck the global economy in worst case scenario, first economic modelling estimate suggests"
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... tudy-warns

Frankly, this is a no brainer. A new economic/energy framework is urgently needed to lay the groundwork for a post FF world and to curb CO2 emissions as much as possible. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and is contributing to setting up the conditions for climate change. That is indisputable
And worse of all we are beginning to see feedbacks which will increase and accelerate global warming.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Sys1 » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 13:49:58

Nowadays, critisizing capitalism is considered as fellony, terrorism, communism or insanity
Bankers, Rich Fellows, Politicians, Companies, Journalists will do everything they can to preserve the statu quo.

Of course, this statu quo is not about our climate on Earth, it is about the way our economy works : exponential debt.
So there is not a single chance that anything will be done to address climate change.

The only thing that will stop our collective madness is extinction. Period.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 14:29:14

rockdoc123 wrote:
To quibble about our EXACT degree of influence is not a productive exercise. And even more important to delay at this stage, our intervention is bordering on reckless given the potential impacts


I disagree. When you talk about intervention you likely aren't referring to individuals driving less or using electric cars instead of internal combustion driven vehicles. You are likely referring to all of the billions of dollars that will be spent on various climate abatement schemes. The estimate I am aware of is that by 2030 if all of these schemes were implemented it would cost about $300 billion per year. Now that is small in comparison to projected GDP for 2030 but the question that needs to be asked is what other issues could be easily solved (and measurable) with that same investment? Global poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare are things that should be at the top of the list. The success of such climate abatement schemes are completely predicated on the belief that man is responsible for warming to the degree the current IPPC models suggest (almost solely responsible). If those models are incorrect (and there is a lot of literature that suggests that is possible) then that money spent on abatement schemes is a very bad investment and a huge lost opportunity cost.


And I disagree with Roc here. Why does it matter if we are the cause of most of the observed global warming? If it is in large part due to increased CO2 from whatever source, not contributing gigatons more CO2 seems like a logical response. Humans have worked to mitigate other threats that they didn't cause.

Flood control? Are you suggesting we shouldn't build dikes and other structures to control flooding because humans don't cause all floods? Tell that to the Dutch. Diseases that weren't human-caused? I suppose we shouldn't have spent billions developing vaccines and food safety programs, eh? Humans don't cause earthquakes and tsunamis, so forget about building codes and other responses. I't really not our fault and that money could be spent on new football stadiums or coastal developments for folks to enjoy.

Ridiculous.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 15:40:10

If it is in large part due to increased CO2 from whatever source, not contributing gigatons more CO2 seems like a logical response.

one of the biggest debates in the literature is in regards to transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity. There are numerous papers that claim very low climate sensitivity (meaning CO2 may not be as great an influence as claimed) and there are many claiming high climate sensitivity. If shutting down CO2 emissions means people in third world countries cannot achieve a better lifestyle then one needs to be sure they are doing the right thing.

Flood control? Are you suggesting we shouldn't build dikes and other structures to control flooding because humans don't cause all floods? Tell that to the Dutch. Diseases that weren't human-caused? I suppose we shouldn't have spent billions developing vaccines and food safety programs, eh? Humans don't cause earthquakes and tsunamis, so forget about building codes and other responses. I't really not our fault and that money could be spent on new football stadiums or coastal developments for folks to enjoy.


did you even read what I wrote? None of what you mention falls into the realm of abatement schemes that are proposed but rather into adaptation. Adaptation is something different and would have to happen regardless of what causes climate change. And what I was saying is there are important issues that could be addressed ....poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare are what I mentioned, I did not suggest that money should be spent on frivolities. I think you have a problem with reading comprehension.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 15:54:18

Rockdoc, as a very bright person, I think you would find it quite edifying reading "6 degrees our future on a hotter planet" by Mark Lynas. Upon reading this well researched and cited book, one will conclude that the feasibility of successful adaptation to runaway global warming gets ever more unrealistic as we approach 6 degrees above baseline.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 16:49:55

rockdoc123 wrote:
If it is in large part due to increased CO2 from whatever source, not contributing gigatons more CO2 seems like a logical response.

one of the biggest debates in the literature is in regards to transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity. There are numerous papers that claim very low climate sensitivity (meaning CO2 may not be as great an influence as claimed) and there are many claiming high climate sensitivity. If shutting down CO2 emissions means people in third world countries cannot achieve a better lifestyle then one needs to be sure they are doing the right thing.

Flood control? Are you suggesting we shouldn't build dikes and other structures to control flooding because humans don't cause all floods? Tell that to the Dutch. Diseases that weren't human-caused? I suppose we shouldn't have spent billions developing vaccines and food safety programs, eh? Humans don't cause earthquakes and tsunamis, so forget about building codes and other responses. I't really not our fault and that money could be spent on new football stadiums or coastal developments for folks to enjoy.


did you even read what I wrote? None of what you mention falls into the realm of abatement schemes that are proposed but rather into adaptation. Adaptation is something different and would have to happen regardless of what causes climate change. And what I was saying is there are important issues that could be addressed ....poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare are what I mentioned, I did not suggest that money should be spent on frivolities. I think you have a problem with reading comprehension.


I always comprehend what you write, Roc, and often disagree. Adaptation and abatement are not mutually exclusive. Is eliminating causes/spread of disease adaptation or abatement? (e g... spraying for mosquito-born illness). Washing hands; adaptation or abatement?

As for "frivolities",, I consider coastal development in light of measurable sea level rise beyond frivolous. It's theft when I have to pay for the consequences.

As for "poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare", we can start with an economy that doesn't promote pumping wealth to the 1% and improving economic equity. Do you really think that monies not spent on limiting climate change is going to go to those other causes? Really?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 17:49:39

I always comprehend what you write, Roc, and often disagree. Adaptation and abatement are not mutually exclusive. Is eliminating causes/spread of disease adaptation or abatement? (e g... spraying for mosquito-born illness). Washing hands; adaptation or abatement?


I think you are confused about what I was talking about. With regards to climate abatement, I am referring to actions taking that some propose will stop temperatures rising (green house gas emission controls). That is where the money with regards to the various arguments including Paris Accords would go. Not sure how you propose to limit climate change by spraying for mosquitos or washing your hands.

As for "poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare", we can start with an economy that doesn't promote pumping wealth to the 1% and improving economic equity. Do you really think that monies not spent on limiting climate change is going to go to those other causes? Really?


If those items became a popular cause that movie stars and politicians flocked to I see no reason why the same sort of arguments as to why all this money should be spent on climate change could not be used to promote similar spending elsewhere. If you are talking about the global 1% all you need is an annual income over $35,000 which pretty much puts the vast majority of North America in that category. The economies of the places that have "poverty, hunger, lack of education and healthcare" are not the same as the economies of North America.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 18:23:48

Not sure how you propose to limit climate change by spraying for mosquitos or washing your hands.


Seems reading comprehension issues wok both ways, Roc. I was talking about other things we already do to abate impacts. If disease-spreading insects are becoming a problem, we spray for that. If the world is warming does it make sense to dump gigatons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, whatever the cause is? Do you rub dirt in an infected wound?

There is no argument you can make to convince me that juicing our atmosphere is a good idea, whatever the economic benefits. The consequences will last far after the people who benefited are gone. I, for one, think kicking cans and dumping our waste on people who had absolutely no say in the matter is morally and pragmatically a bad thing.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 18:33:26

I have to second what Ghung says. Are we going to continue living for today and for ourselves and the heck with how we leave the planet for future generations and what of the bounty of Earth we leave for them. Because it strikes at the heart of all these issues of limits and growth and sustainability.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby baha » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 18:42:13

Yes, CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Yes, It causes the planet to retain heat. There is formula available for that and it is a big part of the climate models they use. The problem is with the feedback processes that no one has ever seen before. Every day you hear about another way Mother Earth is responding by increasing her own emissions. There are too many variables and new ones keep popping up.

So I decided to concentrate on a well known physical effect (the Greenhouse Effect). It exists, it's true, and I know what I can do about it.

Those folks in the third world are going to pass us by. They are going to build a green economy while we are still arguing about it.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 18:51:21

onlooker wrote:I have to second what Ghung says. Are we going to continue living for today and for ourselves and the heck with how we leave the planet for future generations and what of the bounty of Earth we leave for them. Because it strikes at the heart of all these issues of limits and growth and sustainability.


What good does it do to bring current populations up to first-world economic, heath, and educational standards while leaving their children a planet depleted of resources, ecologically trashed, and deep into overshoot? The logic of that escapes me. There was a time when I thought we could do both, but there are too many (mainly 1st-world) people who want to bargain with reality, or rationalize their current behavior (see above). Few of those things will happen, whether or not we attempt to mitigate climate change.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 19:11:28

GHung wrote:
onlooker wrote:I have to second what Ghung says. Are we going to continue living for today and for ourselves and the heck with how we leave the planet for future generations and what of the bounty of Earth we leave for them. Because it strikes at the heart of all these issues of limits and growth and sustainability.


What good does it do to bring current populations up to first-world economic, heath, and educational standards while leaving their children a planet depleted of resources, ecologically trashed, and deep into overshoot? The logic of that escapes me. There was a time when I thought we could do both, but there are too many (mainly 1st-world) people who want to bargain with reality, or rationalize their current behavior (see above). Few of those things will happen, whether or not we attempt to mitigate climate change.

Sorry to say but my impression of my own kind after 55 years on this planet fits in for the most part with this expedient and selfish narrative. Nobility, altruism and principle seem secondary considerations. Oh and I am not about to claim any greater virtue, just my observation
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 20:26:32

Oh gosh, how to respond? Onlooker/GHung I agree with you both, and it is a dismal future I see. If I add my 2¢ it would be just add deeper, darker pessimism. I’ve maxed on my daily quota of that a few hours ago.

For now I need to see some light, some reason to get up and enjoy yet another day. Fortunately I have that available, and I need to turn off this radio channel for the night to preserve sanity.

Good luck to you guys,

Until tomorrow.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 12:09:30

Here is an upcoming weather forecasting seminar if you are interested.

https://www.practical-sailor.com/blog/W ... bbag012818
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 26 May 2018, 09:25:23

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 27 May 2018, 11:32:12

Final countdown to climate chaos underway
2018-05-24 14:22

Unfortunately, we may only take climate change seriously once it's escalated to a point of all-out climate chaos … and by then it'll be too late to reverse it. In fact, there are some people, like Mayer Hillman, who believe that our planet's climate may have already passed a "point of no return".

In his recent article, 'The climate reality no-one will dare mention', he laments humanity's reluctance to acknowledge the lethal nature of climate change; and also our unwillingness to adopt broad-spectrum lifestyle changes that would decrease our carbon footprints and, in turn, reduce the chances of a climate catastrophe.....

Image

Data from Parrenin et al. 2013; Snyder et al. 2016; Bereiter et al. 2015.

It's the final countdown…
The hard truth is, climate change is one of those nebulous threats that humanity still doesn't fully appreciate. As if the low-probability, natural threat of an asteroid strike wasn't scary enough, climate change is a high-probability, 100% man-made apocalyptic threat that will soon pass a tipping point if people around the world remain indifferent to it.

Every day we choose to ignore the reality of climate change and delay global efforts to reduce fossil fuel use, is a day closer to climate chaos … and mass extinction.

The final countdown is underway and humankind's time on Earth is running out!

*********************
Only a miracle could save us humans now.....

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I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 27 May 2018, 11:36:30

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 29 May 2018, 05:00:45

I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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