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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 18:02:09

KaiserJeep wrote:I don't believe that you can even prove that the Earth is warming overall..... you are a long long way from proving AGW when you can't even prove warming.


???????

Of course warming is proved. What are you talking about?

Are you familiar with a scientific instrument called a thermometer? They were invented about 400 years ago and are the device used to measure temperature. For centuries data has been collected on atmospheric temperatures around the planet. More recently, the network of meteorological stations collecting temperature data has been greatly expanded and efforts began to collect data on ocean temps well.

NASA and NOAA collect and tabulate all this data. Other agencies in the EU and elsewhere collect their own data sets. The data can be interpolated to give a planetary average, and it shows warming in many local areas and a significant overall warming trend affecting the planet.

Image
met stations around the globe show warming of the atmosphere and oceans.

In addition to direct measurements of air and ocean temperatures using those instruments called thermometers I've been telling you about, there is also satellite data and other data summarized here

There really isn't any doubt the planet is warming. As the IPCC review of earth's climate said:

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Wed 24 Jan 2018, 18:46:10

Plantagenet wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:I don't believe that you can even prove that the Earth is warming overall..... you are a long long way from proving AGW when you can't even prove warming.


???????

Of course warming is proved. What are you talking about?

Are you familiar with a scientific instrument called a thermometer? They were invented about 400 years ago and are the device used to measure temperature. For centuries data has been collected on atmospheric temperatures around the planet. More recently, the network of meteorological stations collecting temperature data has been greatly expanded and efforts began to collect data on ocean temps well.

NASA and NOAA collect and tabulate all this data. Other agencies in the EU and elsewhere collect their own data sets. The data can be interpolated to give a planetary average, and it shows warming in many local areas and a significant overall warming trend affecting the planet.

Image
met stations around the globe show warming of the atmosphere and oceans.

In addition to direct measurements of air and ocean temperatures using those instruments called thermometers I've been telling you about, there is also satellite data and other data summarized here

There really isn't any doubt the planet is warming. As the IPCC review of earth's climate said:

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Cheers!


I think KJ is either pulling our leg or suffering early stage dementia.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 18:16:38

Kaiser, is a really smart guy but he refuses to concede to the incontrovertible reality of AGW.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 19:16:19

onlooker wrote:Kaiser, is a really smart guy but he refuses to concede to the incontrovertible reality of AGW.


How smart can a person really be if he refuses to believe in thermometers?

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How does NOAA get all that data showing global warming? HINT: THEY USE THERMOMETERS.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 21:48:48

How does NOAA get all that data showing global warming? HINT: THEY USE THERMOMETERS.


not exactly, much of it comes from interpolation from existing stations after considerable data manipulation

Image

note the grey areas have no "thermometers". This doesn't speak to either the length of data or quality either. So there is a considerable amount of adjustment going on. You could argue there are 3300 or so Argo buoys floating around out there but their data is not long history. The problem becomes more important when you look at the difference between SST and land based measurements.

Image

the divergence indicates the increased problem overtime regarding integrating SST with landbased "thermometer" measurments
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 22:18:18

I know a few smart guys, good engineers, who are deniers.

I can’t explain it but there they are. Baffling. :?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 23:33:23

Newfie wrote:I know a few smart guys, good engineers, who are deniers.

I can’t explain it but there they are. Baffling. :?


Beliefs TRUMP intellect!

Sometimes, there's neither beliefs nor intellect: Trump 8)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 09:42:20

I don’t think much of Trump or his intellect, but this has nothing to do with him other than perhaps exposing why he was/is so popular. If the majority of American voters wanted a AGW awake and aware President we would have one. Politicians are plastic, they will mold themselves into whatever sells.

What I find so much more interesting is why some engineers I respect are so block headed on this issue. We got into it one night in a restaurant in Chicago and I’m surprised we didn’t get kicked out. It got loud and rowdy, and not friendly. They had no intelligent argument but silly defenses. Come to think of it I damn near ruined a Thanksgving dinner last year over the same issue. I get tired of the denier BS and refuse to back down. It gets personal. That time I drove the other fellow from the room. :badgrin:

The question of interest is why? There is no logic, there is something else they are extremely defensive of. I can’t fathom that yet.

My Wife the Paychoanalyst/Admiral says it is unrealized fear of mortality. Maybe.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 10:06:22

Very interesting Newf. Yes, these issues and the consequences involved can be pretty harrowing to most people. I also personally feel, that fear plays a role in why many people do not wish to investigate more or concede more of the seriousness of these issues. For example despite back and forth arguments over the timing of peak oil consequences, all of us here concede it will be a huge problem. Same with AGW. But the larger population seems either willfully oblivious or simply too preoccupied to be much more than vaguely aware of these issues. I do NOT speak of these things outside of places like this. It is both futile and unpleasantly received as you have noted Newf.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:31:09

Yes indeed. I was discussing some of this with the Wife recently, why I want so much to be away from people, avoid human contact. When I was involved with the highly PC and left wing Ethical Culture in Philadelphia, and my Wife druuug me to some green weenie meetings I discovered that even the folks who professed the “right” position really didn’t understand the implications. I found the “activists” to be much more political junkies looking for a cause than truly awake and aware citizen.

When I tried to talk straight to folks they recoiled. My Wife says I scared them shitless.

Well so be it, they have good reason to be terrified. I’m not the kind of guy to back down on the truth to ease tender sensibilities.

I don’t get invited out much. :badgrin:
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:39:43

newfie wrote:When I tried to talk straight to folks they recoiled. My Wife says I scared them shit[-]less.


I have a very close childhood friend and we go on camping trips and talk about all sorts of stuff. We mostly agree, but I can see even he took some bouts of being scarred shit-less of all the implications. I attribute it partially towards the fact that he does take some medical marijuana regularly, supposedly for good reasons. At least, I'm attributing it to that.

Like I said, 'beliefs' really do trump (no put intended) 'intellect'. My basic belief is that I'm pretty stupid basically and need to always learn something. I had no problem wrapping myself around mortality in this case. I do feel for everybody else, though :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 13:18:57

jedrider wrote:
newfie wrote:When I tried to talk straight to folks they recoiled. My Wife says I scared them shit[-]less.


I have a very close childhood friend and we go on camping trips and talk about all sorts of stuff. We mostly agree, but I can see even he took some bouts of being scarred shit-less of all the implications. I attribute it partially towards the fact that he does take some medical marijuana regularly, supposedly for good reasons. At least, I'm attributing it to that.

Like I said, 'beliefs' really do trump (no put intended) 'intellect'. My basic belief is that I'm pretty stupid basically and need to always learn something. I had no problem wrapping myself around mortality in this case. I do feel for everybody else, though :)


I'm pretty sure it's not because of the marijuana. It's more likely that the things you discuss challenge his world view and everything he's invested his entire life in. As K said; "People think they have a pretty good bead on things".

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 13:25:21

Engineers tend to work with relatively simple systems, compared to the entire earth system. I think they especially find multiple overlapping feedbacks hard to grok.

But mostly they tend to be politically conservative, and many such conservatives realize that the most obvious response to GW is more government (and even international) regulation and taxes on carbon, both of which are anathema. So they have to deny it's a real problem because otherwise they may have to accept 'solutions' that conflict with their basic political identity and assumptions about how the world works. I have been glad to see some around here and elsewhere who have not let their generally conservative politics prevent them from accept clear, obvious facts when presented clearly to them. Not all, though, seem to have the ability to put their political assumptions/identities...on hold, however briefly, to evenhandedly consider the data as presented.

And of course there is a huge echo-chamber online and beyond where people with these...shortcomings...can go to have their myopia reinforced by both clever prevaricators and utter nitwits.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 16:52:45

Engineers tend to work with relatively simple systems, compared to the entire earth system. I think they especially find multiple overlapping feedbacks hard to grok.


Yeah right, the petroleum engineers who run the several million cell finite element model that encapsulates all of the Saudi oil and gas system include real time drilling, water injection, seismic (including 4d), completions, production, separation, pipelines etc where a pressure change or shut down in one part of the system can have broad compounded effects throughout the entire system would suggest you are full of it. I suspect the shuttle systems engineers at NASA would have a similar comment.

Perhaps they don't agree with you because they have actually read more and have a naturally curious scientific background?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 17:04:57

rockdoc123 wrote:
Perhaps they don't agree with you because they have actually read more and have a naturally curious scientific background?


Probably not. They are specialists. They likely don't know we exist. I worked in engineering most of my life and few engineers I've known are/were big picture people. The best engineer I ever knew also has degrees in sociology and social work and he thinks we're screwed on just about every level.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby baha » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 18:53:56

You are all reinforcing my beliefs.

I started college in 1980 with my sister. She already had a year at ole-miss in computer science so she was ahead of me. She wanted to be an Electrical Engineer. I had been told all my life I was supposed to be a EE. We signed up together and took some classes together and helped each other.

One year in we started engineering physics. You get four semesters like it or not. She struggled and complained and I excelled. At the same time she was in Networks 2 while I was in Networks 1 in the EE building. She's even more nose to the grindstone than me. She was kicking all the men's butts while I was wondering what the hell I'm doing here? After almost flunking networks (actually analog circuit design), and making a B in physics 2 I changed my major and never looked back.

My sister's first job out of school as a EE was at the Stennis Space Center. She has real pictures of them test firing shuttle engines in the 80's on that very NASA jig they were talking about. She just retired from Lockheed Martin. She worked Ballistic Missle Defense for the last ten years...I'm proud of her :)

I got my degree in Physics 3 years later and went to work for the Navy. A EE degree is 120 semester hours (back then) A physics degree is 144. They raked me over the coals as long as they could.

The difference between engineering and physics is the numbers. An engineer takes a formula and puts numbers to it to get the answer, which is also a number. A physicist takes a relationship, experiments with it, and comes up with a formula. There are numbers involved but the answer is a formula. (An equation made up of mostly variables)

Then we give that formula to the engineers and they go off and build stuff. I like that part too :) It is very clearly a big picture approach -vs- a detailed analysis.

KJ is a perfect example of a focussed engineer. He believes there must be a formula that describes the causal relationship between CO2 and warming. It's not enough to feel the warming. He wants to be able to put numbers to it so he can calculate the effect. He thinks you can't make a good plan without numbers...dates, effects, tipping points...

I am happy watching the trends. I don't need numbers to tell me something is going on. As a physicist I accept that we may not even have a formula to use to describe this. That's on me...The atmospheric scientists and physicists are terrible about qualifiers. They don't have a good formula (model) to use to calculate the numbers, or when they do it's wrong. So they don't want to be pinned down.

No one is willing to say it's OK to believe your eyes, so J6P doesn't. :)
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 21:31:39

I am happy watching the trends. I don't need numbers to tell me something is going on. As a physicist I accept that we may not even have a formula to use to describe this. That's on me...The atmospheric scientists and physicists are terrible about qualifiers. They don't have a good formula (model) to use to calculate the numbers, or when they do it's wrong. So they don't want to be pinned down.

No one is willing to say it's OK to believe your eyes, so J6P doesn't.


perhaps I'm wrong but I think what KJ is saying is .....yes the earth may be warming, but the exact tie of how much of that warming is due to man's affects whether that be CO2 or land changes is still up for debate. If it wasn't the literature would not be replete with people arguing about it (and it is regardless of what some here would have you believe). So seeing warming or changes to the climate is just that, observation of change. Attributing that change to one factor over others is exceedingly difficult which is what I believe KJ is getting at.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby baha » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 22:40:26

rockdoc123 wrote:perhaps I'm wrong but I think what KJ is saying is .....yes the earth may be warming, but the exact tie of how much of that warming is due to man's affects whether that be CO2 or land changes is still up for debate. If it wasn't the literature would not be replete with people arguing about it (and it is regardless of what some here would have you believe). So seeing warming or changes to the climate is just that, observation of change. Attributing that change to one factor over others is exceedingly difficult which is what I believe KJ is getting at.


I agree. That is another way of saying the same thing. Both engineers and pure scientists want a formula. It will settle the debate once and for all (if it really works). The fact that we don't have a good model gives everyone doubt. Rightfully so. That's what science is all about. Until you have a repeatable mathematical result it's just a theory.

So everyone punches their calculators and points their fingers and nothing gets done. I know there are things that will minimize the impact no matter what caused it. I'm tired of waiting around for a formula. I have to do something. :(
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby baha » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 00:03:14

Atmospheric science is even more complex than thermodynamics. We are only just beginning to understand. I think one day we will but it could take 1000's of years.

Sometimes the only way to build a good formula is in hindsight. After it's over you can say 'that's how it works'. But that might not be the best choice in this case.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 08:27:01

I think we here are minimizing and underestimating the state of our Science related to GW. We have amassed ice-cores and this paleolithic record strongly attests to the direct connection between levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and average worldwide temperatures on Earth. Scientists are also pretty convicted that the intensity of the Sun and its radiance is at a relatively weak state currently.

So, even though correlation does not equal causation and climate is a complex system, the science, many scientists are telling us is quite conclusive that humanities influence and impact in triggering climate change is significant and unequivocal. To quibble about our EXACT degree of influence is not a productive exercise. And even more important to delay at this stage, our intervention is bordering on reckless given the potential impacts
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