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Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 15:57:46

A second early, and extraordinary, winter storm:

Emergency plan activated in North Dakota amid fall snowstorm


https://www.yahoo.com/news/blizzard-war ... 48525.html

"The extraordinary intensity of this early winter storm threatens to test the limits of local response capabilities across a large portion of our state," Burgum said of the plan that places on standby all agency resources, including the National Guard, to respond to weather-related emergencies.


Carl Jones, a weather service meteorologist in Grand Forks, said the storm likely is historic. He said up to a foot (0.3 meters) of snow already had fallen through much of the state by Friday to be topped by up to 3 feet (0.9 meters) more later in the day.

"These are unheard of amounts for any time of year," he said.


"I'm expecting massive crop losses — as devastating as we've even seen," said Jon Nelson, a state lawmaker who farms several hundred acres near Rugby in north-central North Dakota.

Unharvested wheat in the region probably will be a total loss, he said.

"A lot of the standing stuff is flattened to the ground," Nelson said. "It's shot and some guys are putting their combines away and won't bring them out again."

Erika Kenner, who ranches with her parents in Leeds, North Dakota, said she felt helpless Friday as she was unable to check on the family's herd of several hundred cows due to deep, drifting snow.

"I just hear the wind howling and think of those poor cows out there," she said. "Cattle are tough but this kind of weather just wears on them."


As I've suggested before, my own working definition of when we've crossed the threshold from "climate instability" to "climate chaos" is when our ability to reliably raise food is compromised.

When I last checked US forecasts (did I check global forecasts? I forget.) for crop production, they were in line with recent historical averages, even after the "bomb cyclone(s)" and millions of acres not planted due to wet soil. It will be interesting to see how the harvests in the US pan out at the end of this growing season.

What would constitute a significant reduction in crop production? A consistent 10% decrease from recent historical averages, and falling?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Nefarious » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 16:59:07

This guy is tracking global crop losses and such
http://iceagefarmer.com/map/
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 01:21:53

I have looked at that site before.

He, of course, is all about "the grand solar minimum" influencing weather/climate. And suggests the growing seasons are getting shorter "on both ends". While actually, growing seasons have been increasing, and it's the erratic jet stream, due to the effects of GW, that is producing the current situation, not the solar minimum.

But still, he provides some good info, despite being quite alarmist.


Granted, the following forecast was made prior to this incoming weather system in the US, and all the crops have yet to be harvested - but we are [were?] still within recent historic averages for this year's production:


https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/ ... -usda-says

U.S. PRODUCTION
In its October Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn yield at 168.4 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 167.5 bu./acre and its previous estimate of 168.2. The governmental agency estimated corn production at 13.77 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 13.68 billion and its estimate last month of 13.7 billion.

For soybeans, USDA’s yield estimate came in at 46.9 bu./acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 47.3 bu./acre and its previous estimate of 47.9.

Soybean output has been pegged at 3.55 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.58 billion bushels and its previous estimate of 3.63 billion.


Projected harvested acreage, for corn and soybeans, was within recent historic averages:
HARVESTED ACREAGE
In its report, the USDA pegged U.S. 2019 corn harvested acreage at 81.8 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 81.6 million and its previous estimate of 82.01 million.

For soybeans, the harvested acreage is pegged at 75.6 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 75.70 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 75.8 million.


US Soybean Ending stocks take a nosedive here:
U.S. 2019/20 ENDING STOCKS
The USDA sees the U.S. 2019/2020 corn ending stocks at 1.929 billion bushels vs. its previous estimate of 2.19 billion and the avg. trade estimate of 1.784 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 460 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 521 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 630 million bushels.


World Ending Stocks are within recent historic averages:
WORLD 2019/2020 ENDING STOCKS
The USDA pegged the world corn ending stocks at 302 million metric tons vs. the avg. trade estimate of 298.3 mmt. and its previous estimate of 306.3 mmt.

For soybeans, the world’s ending stocks were left unchanged from the previous estimate of 99.2 mmt.

The USDA raised its world wheat ending stocks to 287 mmt. from 286.5 last month and the avg. trade estimate of 285.2 mmt.


Though, given the weather issues this year, it certainly does "feel" like we are shifting from climate instability to climate chaos. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see how this year's harvest actually pans out.


Adding rice global rice production:

http://www.worldagriculturalproduction. ... /rice.aspx

World Rice Production 2019/2020
October 2019
This month the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the World Rice Production 2019/2020 will be 497.77 million metric tons, around 3.55 million tons more than previous month's projection.

Rice Production last year (*) was 498.95 million tons. This year's 497.77 estimated millions tons could represent a decrease of 1.18 million tons or 0.24% in rice production around the globe.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:08:06

That is reporting historic data. As we all know yeast grows at the same rate right until the end.

So what happens to those projections if one figures in soil and water depletion? Most sources of projections I see simply ignore these factors yet they are quite well known.

Then CC effects would be in addition to those figures.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Nefarious » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:38:43

There is some serious fuckery in those corn numbers.
WASHINGTON, Aug. 12, 2019 – Agricultural producers reported they were not able to plant crops on more than 19.4 million acres in 2019, according to a new report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This marks the most prevented plant acres reported since USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) began releasing the report in 2007 and 17.49 million acres more than reported at this time last year.
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news ... lion-acres

and yet they estimate to harvest 200k more acres this year than the average?!?!
at 168.4 bpa that would equal a loss of 3.27 billion bushels form those 19.4 million acres. (all 19.4 million acres are not for just corn ,that was my mistake see my next post)Yet we are going to produce 90 million bushels more than avg.
Give me a break!
Not to mention
55% of the corn harvest this year is rated good to excellent.
Only 58% is mature as of oct 6 compared to 92% last year at this same time
Only 15% has been harvested compared to 33% last year at this same time
https://downloads.usda.library.cornell. ... og4119.pdf
And no it's not counting the effects from the cold and snowstorms
Last edited by Nefarious on Sat 12 Oct 2019, 13:08:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:54:34

I agree, those corn numbers don't add up. Thanks for that!

Re comparing this year's maturity & harvest to last year's - last year's was ahead of average.

Though, your point still stands, as this year is still below the 2014-2018 average.
Maturity: 58% this year, 85% average
harvested: 15% this year, 27% average

How the weather affects the harvest, and what the final numbers are, have yet to be seen
As Yogi Berra would say, it ain't over til it's over.

It's a bit like watching the arctic melt. Will this year be the year that we see a significant weather-related decrease in crop production? Or will we dodge another bullet?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Nefarious » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 13:00:53

Upon further reading those 19.4 million acres are split and not only just corn. I don't want to be accused of misrepresenting data.
this is how they have the breakdown on prevented planting. Says corn is only down 1% in acreage. Soybeans 16%
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/ ... plant.html
Still don't believe we are going to harvest above avg though but that's my opinion only.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 13:28:24

Interesting. Thanks for the digging into that.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 16 Oct 2019, 14:13:33

Indigenous farming practices failing as climate change disrupts seasons
Farmers around the world rely on millennia-old wisdom to guide their planting. Scrambled weather and seasons are forcing them into uncharted territory.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... WNCKuiFeyc
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 12:31:31

USDA CROP PROGRESS REPORT PRINTS CORN HARVEST AT 41%
BOTH CORN AND SOYBEAN HARVEST PROGRESS COME IN BELOW EXPECTATIONS.


https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/ ... est-delays

CORN
In its weekly Crop Progress Report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn harvest at 41% complete,
below the trade’s expectation of 48% and below a five-year average 61%.

Minnesota is behind the most regarding picking corn: 22% vs. a 56% five-year average.

The overall condition of the corn crop is rated at 58% good to excellent in the top 18 corn producing states vs. 56% a week ago.



SOYBEANS
The amount of soybeans cut totaled 62%, below the trade's expectations of 65%.
and below an 80% five-year average

A number of major soybean-producing states remain way below their five-year averages.

For instance,
Iowa has just 66% of its soybeans cut vs. 80% five-year average.
Minnesota has 62% of its harvest complete vs. a 93% five-year average.
North Dakota is only 29% complete vs. a 91% five-year average.
And, Wisconsin farmers have only 46% of their soybeans cut vs. a five-year average of 73%.


===============================
to add a bit more detail for MN, ND, & SD, the harvest is especially far behind average:


Finally, some harvest progress in the Upper Midwest


https://www.agweek.com/4674888-finally- ... t-progress

Corn
Minnesota: 22% of the crop was combined by Oct. 27, up from 11% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 56%.

North Dakota: Just 6% of corn was harvested by Oct. 27, up marginally from 4% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 41%.

South Dakota: 14% of the crop was harvested by Oct. 27, up from 9% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 46%.



Wheat
The new report didn't include statistics on spring wheat, harvest of which normally is wrapped up in September. But previous crop progress reports found that some spring wheat hadn't been combined, especially in Montana and North Dakota, and anecdotal reports indicate that some wheat still in fields won't get harvested.


Sugar Beets:
Excess moisture in fields also is hampering harvest of sugar beets, an important crop in western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota.

In North Dakota, 53% of beets was harvested by Oct. 27, up from 41% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 97% for that date.

In Minnesota, 60% of beets was harvested by Oct. 27, up from 47% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 95%.


Sunflowers
Sunflower harvest also was behind schedule in South Dakota and North Dakota, which dominate U.S. production of the crop.

In South Dakota, 12% of the crop was harvested by Oct. 27, up from 5% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 44%.

North Dakota farmers had harvested 11% of their sunflowers by Oct. 27, up from 6% a week earlier but
down from the five-year average of 47%.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 12:48:31

I’ve been looking for a concise source of data that shows stats for world grain imports and exports. Rice, wheat, corn, soybean. Ideally it would show where major exporters sold and where major importers bought.

I find a lot of BS statistics but not much that puts things into a global perspective. I found statistics.con which MAY have these stats but they want money for access.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby GHung » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 13:04:46

Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 13:34:35

Good discussion. When it gets alarming is if global crop production declines meaningfully over time, and the signs point to the climate chaos outrunning human ability to adapt to it.

Whether that's only a manner of time or whether the crop zones move and humanity can adapt remains to be seen.

One method of adapting would be to have indoor vertical food factories to raise crops using solar, hydroponics, automation, and electricity to grow and harvest food on a huge scale.

There is some move to do this already of course, but whether it can be done at reasonable cost at massive scale for megacrops like corn and wheat is a big question. This would be to eliminate unreliable weather as a major factor.

For example, from googling "indoor food factories" (many hits along this line):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -go-global

My instinct is to think this could be done to a large extent, but that the marginal cost of food would be meaningfully higher and that this has its limits.

Unfortunately for future generations, this likely plays out gradually enough (despite all the warning signs), that aggressive mitigation action isn't taken, and the millennials, and younger inherit the mess about the time the problem really gets to biting frequently enough to be well recognized as a "serious" problem.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 11:20:50

GHung wrote:https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf


I had seen that but it is not a useful data set. I want to see who is exporting soybeans and who is importing soybeans. I don’t much care how mAny soybeans you eat, yet. I’m interested in who the traders are.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 11:27:02

scientific American did a big piece on those urban vertical farms some years ago. It was a real hack piece, had no business in SA.

It gave no information on almost anything of importance including how many folks it would feed. Using the vague numbers they did provide, without any back ups, I concluded that in a 3x3 block grid of 15 story buildings You would need to devote one entire block to the vertical farm. Nothing on how much water or power consumed or wastes generated.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 15:22:22

USDA SAYS IT'S ALL OVER | Grain Growth Season Halted Early/Mid October
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9V8Vkh2Wfw

A lot of rambling and I had to listen at high speed, so I missed some nuances possibly.

So, the growing season had a late start and now an early end, so where does that leave us?

Just not a surplus, but still sufficient grain, is my guess. However, the trend is clear, but we can hope it is an anomaly.

Just like California burning, an anomaly, we hope, but it hasn't been. We need the rain this winter for our crops (not mine, but what I can buy!)
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 16:34:17

jedrider wrote:USDA SAYS IT'S ALL OVER | Grain Growth Season Halted Early/Mid October
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9V8Vkh2Wfw


That right-wing hick is a good example of the problem with the US. People in flyover country are the most denialist even though they're ground zero for global warming impacts. Now instead of pure denial we have "it's happening and it's apocalyptic but....it's not our fault so no guilty conscience."

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 21:10:38

asg70 wrote:
jedrider wrote:USDA SAYS IT'S ALL OVER | Grain Growth Season Halted Early/Mid October
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9V8Vkh2Wfw


That right-wing hick is a good example of the problem with the US. People in flyover country are the most denialist even though they're ground zero for global warming impacts. Now instead of pure denial we have "it's happening and it's apocalyptic but....it's not our fault so no guilty conscience."


Cognitive Dissonance in full display: Something is changing, but it is NOT the climate. The weather, but it's not like it use to be...
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 00:31:27

Newfie,

does this have what you're seeking?

Scroll down:

Grain: World Markets and Trade
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 08:11:34

This is not what Newfie was seeking, but it is related in that the price could be used as a proxy for tradeable food supplies:


FAO Food Price Index for the world
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

The latest edition states:
The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged nearly 170 points in September 2019, unchanged from August but 3.3 percent higher than in the corresponding period last year. While in September sugar prices fell sharply, the decline was almost entirely offset by higher prices of vegetable oils and meat. The Dairy index was down only marginally, whereas that of cereals remained steady.


With sugar prices falling, maybe it is time to stock up on that commodity, especially as white sugar if properly stored will last for years.
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