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PeakOil is You

Chris Martenson's Crash Course

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: the crash course

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Fri 19 Sep 2008, 21:27:31

efarmer wrote:"Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 19 Sep 2008, 22:08:03

Interesting article:

I was for several years director of compliance and market supervision at the International Petroleum Exchange (which is now ICE Futures Europe) -
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It is estimated that in total, some $260 billion was recently invested in oil markets one way and another, and this pool of funds was superimposed as an inverted pyramid of risk on this relatively tiny base of physical crude oil.
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I pointed out that current levels of gearing and risk, and the concentration of risk in single points of failure, together mean that the only difference between "economic terrorists" and proprietary traders such as hedge funds is motive. The former would destroy a market deliberately: the latter by accident

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 9Dj02.html
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 19 Sep 2008, 22:41:27

In an early chapter (don't want to go through them to see which) he points out that the previous trillion dollars in government debt was added in only four months.

Since that section was added, I believe that record has been eclipsed by the most recently added trillion, which appears to have been added this week. 8O

I strongly suspect the next trillion will occur in a bit more than a week, but far less than four months.

Trillions in debt are getting created faster and faster all the time. It won't be too long before they're occurring daily!

This video series is MANDATORY VIEWING! :x
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 21:27:38

Shannymara wrote:Sigh. After reading this page of this thread, I guess I have *another* thing to add to my queue.

Doomer porn ambrosia? Pants peeing? In particular, the list of people who are into this thing has me curious.

Yay time suck!

I'd move this up near the top of the queue. Certainly more worthwhile than most stuff online.
efarmer wrote:"Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby AgentR » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 21:54:56

Just finished watching it and did have a few critiques...

Early in the series, he discusses money supply, compounding, and exponential functions; and makes a point that money supply is ruled by these same exponential functions. I feel this is misleading in that while past data does fit an exponential curve; future performance is dictictated STRICTLY by choices made by people who can arbitrarily shut it down, or create a positive discontinuity by a mass dump of hard currency directly to the system.

Next, an assumption that if a choice between prosperity and growth is to be made; the unanimous choice is/shoudlbe prosperity; but I think that is also inaccurate. Some would choose growth even at the expense of prosperity.

Late in the series he discusses EROEI principles; beginning with an absolute example (income vs tax); but then shifts to a ratio based discussion. This looks good on a graph of course, but fudges the reality that if you can find a big enough pool of X, wasting 98% of it to get 2% gain, can give you an absolutely huge amount of X to be spent.

Other than that though, its well worth listening to; and I'm somone who will almost never watch a youtube or anything else 3rd party posted here.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 10:00:27

Old news perhaps, but FYI, Chapter 19 is out.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 10:29:36

BigTex wrote:I wonder if he is a member here. I'm sure he reads the site.

If you read this Chris, you da man.

He's here but I don't think he posts hardly ever.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 11:35:54

VMarcHart wrote:Old news perhaps, but FYI, Chapter 19 is out.


I just checked, all of the completed chapters are functioning just fine, including chapter 19.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 15:21:14

eastbay wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:Old news perhaps, but FYI, Chapter 19 is out.
I just checked, all of the completed chapters are functioning just fine, including chapter 19.
"Out" as in available to the public. :)
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 17:18:30

VMarcHart wrote:
eastbay wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:Old news perhaps, but FYI, Chapter 19 is out.
I just checked, all of the completed chapters are functioning just fine, including chapter 19.
"Out" as in available to the public. :)



uh... I get it now. Duh. Takes me a bit longer sometimes these days ...
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby aggie » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 19:48:51

I think its awesome that Chris came up with these conclusions before some of this stuff happened. Who would have thought that Lehman, Fannie, Freddie, and AIG would go down in the same week. Even Chris thought it was happening to fast.

If you haven't, you should check his daily posts on his home page. He usually makes comments on what happened in the economy each day.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 21:11:32

aggie wrote:If you haven't, you should check his daily posts on his home page. He usually makes comments on what happened in the economy each day.


Link?

Thx.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby aggie » Sun 21 Sep 2008, 21:37:07

Chris's home page

Its just the crash course's main page.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby jupiters_release » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 02:35:57

Only caught this today. Classy doomer porn, unlike the typical obscenities we're used to. :-D Great link for the uninformed, assuming any of us are still trying to spread the word. It's so easy to cross the line from teaching to preaching collapse. Chris has the perfect approach imo.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 20:11:38

jupiters_release wrote:Classy doomer porn ... Chris has the perfect approach imo.
I thought "doomer porn" was a pejorative term.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby jupiters_release » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 15:25:29

VMarcHart wrote:
jupiters_release wrote:Classy doomer porn ... Chris has the perfect approach imo.
I thought "doomer porn" was a pejorative term.


Not in the connotation above. :P
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Re: the crash course

Unread postby aggie » Wed 22 Oct 2008, 20:43:10

Chapter 20 is up!
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Chris Martenson releases final chapter in the Crash Course

Unread postby Stratovarius » Thu 23 Oct 2008, 22:11:55

Chapter 20: What should I do?

Currently watching...will leave thoughts when done. :) I like how he's basically getting you to asses yourself instead of getting really doomerish and telling you stock food etc.

Anyway I'm finished with it. I like his philosophy that you should probably prepare for something horrible anyway. He compared the optimist to the doomer and said that they both have something in common, in that each places at least some likelihood on the worst happening (collapse of govt. services? collapse of support systems?) and that preparing is a way of insuring yourself. He used the analogy of fire insurance...people get fire insurance anyway, even though there's a very small change your house will burn down. In the same way an optimist should prepare because if they turn out to be wrong, the consequences will be utterly catastrophic. If you're a doomer, well there ya go. Get busy!
Last edited by Stratovarius on Thu 23 Oct 2008, 22:43:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chris Martenson releases final chapter in the Crash Cour

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Thu 23 Oct 2008, 22:32:48

He's right, that could be a whole course in itself. I liked it that he didn't just tell us what to do. Of course, that's what I wanted but it's always better to think and not be lazy. :)
efarmer wrote:"Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Chris Martenson releases final chapter in the Crash Cour

Unread postby Jotapay » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 00:38:12

amazing exposition.
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