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China and Coal Pt. 2

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 02 Mar 2015, 13:34:37

Good comparison, but we are talking about a LOT of gas being compressed. That must involve a fair amount of energy.

The main thing is that these plants will be running at considerably lower efficiency rates than conventional coal plants, and I would expect that this would price them out of the competition. But I haven't looked at the exact numbers yet. I would think those wouldn't really be fully available till this thing is up and running for a while so that we can really see what the (in-)efficiencies are (if they are made generally available even then).
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 02 Mar 2015, 13:52:38

dohboi - "...and what kind of energy toll does that take??" Yes...a liquid state. And yes...a lot of energy. But the good news: energy made from cheap lignite of which we have a 100+ years supply. It's amazing that this project isn't given more coverage in the US. Maybe it's partly due to all those folks who are jealous of Texas and don't want to acknowledge us as one of the LEADERS in addressing GHG emissions. LOL. Here are details. Notice how important it is scale the project up to world class size to make it economical. So yes: not only is Texas one of the global leaders in wind power expansion we're about to become the poster child for mega CO2 sequestration:

Carbon Capture Could Be Feasible For Coal Power Plants: NRG Energy said Tuesday it’s building a $1 billion project to capture carbon dioxide emissions from a coal power plant in Texas and ship them 82 miles away to help boost an oil field’s production. The Petra Nova Carbon Capture Project, a joint venture between NRG and JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration in Japan, will be the largest in the world to use a process that scrubs away the carbon dioxide after coal has been burned to produce electricity, the companies said.

The project is underway at a time when the federal government plans to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from existing fossil fuel power plants, which are the largest source of carbon pollution in the country. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed in June a rule to cut carbon emissions, a regulation that is really targeting coal power plants, which emit more carbon dioxide than natural gas power plants.

Without large-scale projects in place, however, the technology won’t become cheaper quickly. The U.S. Department Energy keeps a database of 268 carbon capture projects worldwide.
Petra Nova is NRG’s first carbon capture project and an effort to show that carbon capture technology can work at a large scale. It’s also a risky venture that, if successful, will enable NRG and its consortium of partners and investors to offer carbon capture development and construction to other coal power plant owners worldwide. Petra Nova is scheduled for completion in 2016.

Who Is Paying For It: The cost and the amount of energy a carbon capture process requires are major obstacles for it to become widely used. NRG aims to build the project for one of its four coal units at its WA Parish power plant in Texas. At 240 megawatts, the project is four times larger than what the company initially had in mind when it formed the team to develop this project in 2010. Increasing its size helps the project to reach a certain economy of scale for reducing cost. The initial, smaller project wouldn’t have led to enough additional production from the oil field to make it feasible. Even though the project is sizable, it’s paired with a coal unit that is even larger: 610 megawatts (a duct will divert 240 megawatts worth of flue gas from the unit to the carbon capture facility). Retrofitting the entire unit for carbon capture will require even heftier upfront costs.

NRG and JX Nippon lined up several sources to finance the $1 billion project. There’s the $167 million grant approved by the U.S. Department of Energy and loans of $250 million from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and Mizuho Bank. NRG and JX Nippon will each fork over about $300 million. The significant role that Japanese companies play indicates that the project is considered too risky to attract financing from U.S. banks. Those banks will want to see whether Petra Nova generates good returns before they are willing to provide financing.

What The Technology Can Do - The project will use a technology that is co-developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and the Kansai Electric Power. The process uses a solvent — chemicals that are called amines — to absorb carbon dioxide, which is then de-coupled from the solvent so that the solvent can be re-used. It aims to remove 90% of the carbon emissions, or 1.6 million tons of carbon per year, which is a high capture rate. Mitsubishi’s technology has been used at 10 natural gas power plants worldwide and for a demonstration project at a coal power plant in Alabama that can remove 500 tons of carbon emission per day, or 182,500 per year if it runs daily.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 02 Mar 2015, 14:47:20

dohboi wrote:
The fall in coal use was driven by a variety of interlinking factors including:
1. A record increase in low-carbon power capacity.
2. The implementation of ambitious coal reduction targets.
3. Slower growth in heavy industry.
4. Improvements in efficiency.
5. Greater use of natural gas.
6. Better than usual conditions for hydropower.

Only one of these six factors – high hydropower utilization rates – is a yearly fluctuation, the rest potentially reflecting long term structural shifts.




What caused the slowdown in copper consumption in China? Or rubber? Etc...?

Slowing growth. China's GDP growth is now back to levels not seen since the 1980s. Maturing or collapsing is the question.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 02 Mar 2015, 15:14:25

Thanks for the details on that, ROCK.

GG--good question. What's your take on it?
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 02 Mar 2015, 15:32:28

GoghGoner wrote:What caused the slowdown in copper consumption in China? Or rubber? Etc...?

Slowing growth. China's GDP growth is now back to levels not seen since the 1980s. Maturing or collapsing is the question.
It's the same old pattern all over again. Japan and Korea went through the same reductions in growth. They too once had 10+ percent GDP growth. Then they saw growth decelerate to levels more consistent with the rest of the industrialized world. Thus I think "maturing" would be the better term to pick.

China’s economic success is not unique and is part of the “Asian economic miracle.” China’s economic development model is still largely a replication of that adopted by other more advanced East Asian economies, in our view.

China is at a similar inflection point. According to the data compiled by Maddison, Japan and Korea reached the $7,000 level in the late 1960s and 1980s, respectively. Thus the Chinese economy is now at an inflection point similar to that in the Japanese economy 40 years ago (i.e., around 1969) and the Korean economy 20 years ago (i.e., around 1988). We find that beyond this inflection point, overall GDP growth tended to decelerate and inflation to accelerate in both Japan and Korea.

Specifically, with regard to economic growth, while the 10-year average GDP growth rate for Japan during 1960-69 and Korea during 1979-88 was 10.4% and 10.0%, respectively, the rate in 1970-79 and 1989-1998 decelerated to 5.2% and 6.3%, respectively.

Risks
Both Japanese and Korean economies were hit by serious crises in the decade after their economies crossed the inflection point. These experiences suggest that the future development for the Chinese economy over the coming decade will probably not be entirely “accident-free”.

The particular crisis experiences of Japan and Korea point to the vulnerability of the Chinese economy and the types of possible risks that could seriously destabilize the economy. There are two—an energy crisis or a financial crisis.

In view of China’s rising dependency on crude oil over the coming decade, a sharp increase in crude oil prices for a prolonged period of time could deal as large a negative impact on the Chinese economy as was the case for Japan duding the oil crisis in the mid-1970s. In fact, the oil crisis in the mid-1970s caused the Japanese economy to gear down on a permanent basis.
Chinese Economy through 2020
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 02 Mar 2015, 17:02:25

dohboi - I take it pretty much at face value. Given who's financing most of the cost I suspect they have the economics worked out as close as possible at the theoretical level. Of course, notice the leverage: using the CO2 for EOR. I'm not sure if the builders of the system are going to benefit from that oil production directly or not. I suspect they aren't. OTOH they may be selling that CO2 to the operator of West Ranch Field...Hilcorp out of Houston. If that leverage is required to make it work then it will limit it's global application if there has to be a nearby EOR project.

Time wil tell how the economics ill work out. But remember Texas has a lot on the line given its potential future battles with the feds over GHG emissions.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Mar 2015, 09:04:37

Thanks again for the insights, here, ROCK.

Meanwhile, back in China:

China tries to ditch its coal addiction, and reduce its energy intensity.


The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in its annual report on Thursday that it would implement policies aimed at reducing coal consumption and controlling the number of energy-intensive projects in polluted regions.

China is trying to strike a balance between improving its environment and restructuring away from an economy dominated by energy intensive industries like steel making and construction towards one focused more on consumption and the service sector.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/ ... 8V20150305

And, possibly related:

This updated article on the viral video "Under The Dome" now is linked to a version that has English subtitles.
http://www.takepart.com/video/2015/03/0 ... iral-video
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby americandream » Sat 07 Mar 2015, 09:22:23

With most of the world yet to be developed, capitalism will be cyclical until the larder is empty or the house burns down.....or we rejig its resident culture.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Mar 2015, 09:52:10

Hi ad.

This isn't directly connected to China, but I thought it was something you might be interested in:

http://grist.org/business-technology/no ... -they-use/

What’s needed is not just better accounting but a new global industrial system, a new way of providing for human wellbeing, and fast.

That means a revolution.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby americandream » Sat 07 Mar 2015, 21:25:28

Hi db

That pretty much sums up a fundamental and irreversible tendency in capitalist social relations. The quest for maximised accumulation by shifting the costs onto the commons whilst consolidating value. Capitalist social relations dictate the economic outcome which is why they must be completely removed from the collective consciousness for there to be any real semblance of risk management. These cyclical developments are misleading.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 07 Mar 2015, 23:27:04

dohboi - Let's set aside what China says their plans for coal are just look at the actions:

From Sept 2013 from the idiots at Forbes who apparently don't read Reuters: China’s State Council has announced that it is banning the construction of new coal-fired power plants near Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. The goal is to cut air pollution in the country’s eastern megalopolises. By shifting new power plant construction to natural gas, nuclear and solar, China hopes to bring its reliance on coal down below 65% of total power generation, from about 70% today (the U.S. gets about 35% of its electricity from coal). That shift is underway, with dozens of nuclear plants under construction. The expectation is that China’s nuclear capacity will grow from 12.5 gigawatts now to 50 GW by 2017. Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is seeking to mimic the Chinese playbook

{Notice they didn't say the would cut coal consumption...just have the alts expand faster then coal expands.}

And just a few months later in 2014 Reuters - China approved the construction of more than 100 million tonnes of new coal production capacity in 2013 - six times more than a year earlier and equal to 10 percent of U.S. annual usage - flying in the face of plans to tackle choking air pollution. The scale of the increase, which only includes major mines, reflects Beijing's aim to put 860 million tonnes of new coal production capacity into operation over the five years to 2015, more than the entire annual output of India.

{So according to Forbes President Obama is going to follow the "Chinese playbook" by greatly expanding the consumption of coal in the US???}
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 14:08:52

Yeah, I noticed that inconsistency.

I do wonder if they are going to be retiring old coal dirtier coal plants as they build the new ones. I don't have data on that, though. Any insights would be welcome.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 14:40:09

dohboi wrote:I do wonder if they are going to be retiring old coal dirtier coal plants as they build the new ones. I don't have data on that, though. Any insights would be welcome.
Yes, China has been retiring older plants as they build new ones. The old ones generally were inefficient and had no pollution control equipment while the new ones are efficient and have top of the line pollution control equipment on them. But the old ones were also small while the new ones are large. So total coal capacity and utilization still grew rapidly this past decade. Back in 2003, China had around 400 GW of capacity. Last year, it was more than double that at over 800 GW. Some are forecasting it to rise as high as 1367 GW in the next 10 years. If true, that would be a rise of nearly 1000 GW of coal capacity between 2003 and 2025. Compare that to the total nuclear capacity of 50 GW mentioned in the article.

China’s installed coal capacity will increase from 846 GW last year to around 1016 GW by 2018 and more than 1367 GW in 10 years’ time, according to a new report.

And while this rise in coal consumption will cement China’s status as the world’s biggest polluter, the study from research firm GlobalData stresses that the country is “showing signs of embracing clean coal technology for its new and existing power plants”. China has implemented tighter emission standards for coal-fired power plants, including reduced allowances for sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and soot. Government policies, laws and regulations are encouraging the construction of large-scale, coal-fired units with higher efficiency, lower water usage and more effective emission controls.
China coal capacity forecast to hit 1367 GW
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby sparky » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 14:59:26

.
The old coal plants were also located inside the cities ,

as was the case in Britain in the 1950ies , California in the 60ies , Japan in the 70ies air pollution is the first politically sensitive environment subject ,
after all, of all the vital necessities breathing is second only to keeping body integrity

By the way , in real estate mad China ,with the growth in the suburbs, those inner city locations are now quite valuable
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 15:44:40

One has to wonder if the cleaner emissions standard from China will be overwhelmed by the larger size and number of plants putting out less pollution per ton consumed, but consuming vastly more tons of coal.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 15:50:34

ROCKMAN wrote:And just a few months later in 2014 Reuters - China approved the construction of more than 100 million tonnes of new coal production capacity in 2013 - six times more than a year earlier and equal to 10 percent of U.S. annual usage - flying in the face of plans to tackle choking air pollution. The scale of the increase, which only includes major mines, reflects Beijing's aim to put 860 million tonnes of new coal production capacity into operation over the five years to 2015, more than the entire annual output of India.

Wow. :cry:

I know they must pursue a high growth agenda to keep the rapidly expanding middle class happy, but doing it via rapidly expanding coal burning is bad for everybody, and especially them since they're closest to it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 15:54:44

sparky wrote:.
By the way , in real estate mad China ,with the growth in the suburbs, those inner city locations are now quite valuable

Wow! So tear 'em down and build fancy stuff for rich people on the now-expensive real estate!

More tax revenue and a jobs program to boot! (What could possibly go wrong?)

Too bad capitalism doesn't contain a "constrained resources sanity mode" at some point.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby americandream » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 16:37:11

dohboi wrote:Yeah, I noticed that inconsistency.

I do wonder if they are going to be retiring old coal dirtier coal plants as they build the new ones. I don't have data on that, though. Any insights would be welcome.


Monitoring capitalism as it becomes more global will become increasingly fraught with error (unintentional) so beware of record keeping. Recognise that the largely undeveloped state of the world, vis a vis the compulsion to accumulate, has horrors in store for us.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 18:16:30

Tanada wrote:One has to wonder if the cleaner emissions standard from China will be overwhelmed by the larger size and number of plants putting out less pollution per ton consumed, but consuming vastly more tons of coal.
Depends what type of emissions you are talking about. Easier to capture emissions like sulphur dioxide and particulates are down overall despite the increase in coal use:

The total annual discharge of particulate matter has been reduced from 4 million tonnes in the early 1980s to 1.5 million tonnes in 2012.

The rapid decrease in sulfur dioxide emissions began in 2005 when desulfurization facilities were widely applied. Sulfur dioxide emissions were reduced from 13 million tonnes in 2005 to 8.83 million tonnes in 2012; sulfur dioxide emissions per unit electricity were reduced from 6.4 g/kWh to 2.26 g/kWh, which is better than the 2.8 g/kWh recorded in the U.S. in 2011. Presently, desulfurization is applied to approximately 90% of all coal-fired power plants in China, which is approximately 30 percentage points higher than that of the U.S. in 2011.
Pollution Control of Coal-Fired Power Generation in China

CO2 emissions have grown rapidly however, nearly tripling in the last 13 years:

China CO2 emissions growth slows sharply
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 08 Mar 2015, 18:31:43

Nitrogen oxides, another major emission from burning coal, also increased rapidly in China these past 2 decades:

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. With the rapid economic development and urbanization in
China, air pollutant emissions have been increasing at an unprecedented rate over the last decade.

In this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions of China from 1995 to 2010. With the rapid growth of energy consumption, NOx emissions were estimated to more than double from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Although several control measures have been introduced for power plants and transportation, they were insufficient to constrain the strong increase of NOx emissions.
NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives
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