[Evltre]

on how the calculation that peak oil is coming in the next 0-5-10 years works - do they include capped and untapped proven reserves in those calculations?

So for example when someone says 'but you're forgetting about commerically unviable wells, as the price continues to rise it will become viable to extract oil these wells" - can I say - hang on a minute - regardless of the cost of extracting it that oil is already factored into the calculations?

Am I correct or misguided?

(I know I should know this!)

[skateari]

Your correct. Peak Oil happening before 2010 (5 years) counts in all the remaining reserves including untapped oil (which there is very little left). I think this quote explains it well:

Several new large fields should come online this year, adding extra capacity. These are the last of the 500 million barrel mega fields, since none has been discovered in the past few years. Eighteen new mega projects are due to start producing this year, followed by eleven more is 2006. However, 2007 will see the opening of only three new projects, followed by three more in 2008. This will not keep up with declining production in older fields, much less the increase in demand.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... tion.shtml

There are very few large enough new untapped to make any difference. The new projects in the next two years are going to have a hard enough time trying to meet demand.. two years down the road it seems impossible. The figures seen at (www.peakoil.net) ASPO represent all known oil feilds and their reserves; no matter if their in use right now or not. Its safe bet to say Peak Oil will occure within the next 5 years, given that new projects wont keep up with demand, let alone the decline of other feilds.

[Evltre]

Thanks for that - just wanted to make sure I was on the right track before I got into a heated debate about it....I hate being wrong....