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Cali blackouts coming

Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:16:22

Pops wrote:This is how things will go for a while. Eventually insurance cos will simply not insure property that is indefensible. Whether from fire, sea level, flooding, whatever: larger and larger areas will be deemed uninsurable and owners will have to weight the scenic benefit against the risk.

And that's as it should be.

Private insurance will reach that conclusion re self interest, once people refuse to pay the required rates for them to make a reasonable profit, given the risk.

Public (government) insurance may handle it for longer if certain political entities get their way, but that's no more sane than private insurance doing it. It's just that using OTHER peoples' money is so attractive as long as one's own ox isn't getting gored.

This already happens, re flood zones like rivers. It's one thing to rebuild someone's house once. After that, the taxpayer should no longer get the bill, and the homeowner needs to step up and take responsibility if they insist on living in the flood-prone area.

I have to wonder how long it will take people to figure out that overpopulation is the primary problem, and be willing to DO something about it.

This is an example of why taking endless illegal immigrants into the US is a bad idea -- even if we can supposedly feed all potential immigrants, there are FAR more issues than food.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 14:10:43

GHung wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:...............

Many people here might be confusing collapse of the West with collapse of the world.
But world can and will exist without the West or with "thirdworlded" West.
..........


Yes,, the rest of the world is immune to the effects of climate change, global resource depletion, and environmental degradation. They'll all get along just famously.
Good to know. I'm moving to S. Sudan.

Pending collapse of the West has much more to do with economic mismanagement and defunct cancerous banking system than with climate change and resource depletion.
Even so, nations who are consuming per capita much less than US and which are in favorable geographic locations are going to do much better than others.
So some Latin American countries, China, Russia or Mongolia might have a bright future.
Canada also could but for now it is an idiocracy.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 14:53:06

I think it’s a mixed bag. Not a lot of countries in a very good situation with regards to being able to feed themselves. Many countries rely upon the international trade network for food. If that were to collapse then they could be in a world of hurt shortly.

Agree that Canada is about as good as it gets, lots of resources, limited population, fairly secure borders, secure banking system.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Pops » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 15:14:08

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I have to wonder how long it will take people to figure out that overpopulation is the primary problem, and be willing to DO something about it.

... immigrants...

2018 had the lowest population growth rate in 80 years — including immigration.
The lowest natural growth rate ever as far as I can tell

Image

It's all fun and games blaming everything on Mexicans until it's your job that's eliminated because of a shrinking local economy. GDP has come down off the tax giveaway, shut off immigration entirely and you're looking at even lower gdp growth. Hard to have an expanding economy with a declining population so eventually a permanent recession. Rather than being the cause of all our ills, immigration is in part keeping the economy afloat.

Natural population growth in the US is over, millennials and especially Gen Z get to choose. Living in cities, kids are a liability rather than asset so they'll choose fewer. It's a good thing, but there are pitfalls and opportunities involved.

Speaking of which, right now boomers are aging in place rather than moving into "homes" like their parents did. 75% still own the old 3/2 and it's constraining supply. Eventually, (10 years?) they are going to start dying off and housing prices are going to fall, in some place a lot. Shrinking property tax rolls in those places mean fewer services. Already at least 10 states are losing population regularly as old people die and young people move to cities, partly for services. Again, smaller populations mean smaller gdp and tax base.

I just gotta laugh at all the newfound partisan condemnation of "partisanship." Kind of the trumpers seeing the writing on the wall and angling for a little pre-emptive redemption I'm thinkin. What happened to all the "suck it up buttercup?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 02:10:27

Pops wrote:It's all fun and games blaming everything on Mexicans until it's your job that's eliminated because of a shrinking local economy. GDP has come down off the tax giveaway, shut off immigration entirely and you're looking at even lower gdp growth. Hard to have an expanding economy with a declining population so eventually a permanent recession. Rather than being the cause of all our ills, immigration is in part keeping the economy afloat.

Our economic model is misconstructed.
More sane one present for example in feudal societies could cope well with growing, stable or moderately shrinking populations.
All what you need to do to address these problems is outlawing of fractional reserve banking practice.
But people will get poorer, you might say...
Well, they *still* will get poorer a bit later, in fact much poorer than need be, if current paradigm continue.

Natural population growth in the US is over, millennials and especially Gen Z get to choose. Living in cities, kids are a liability rather than asset so they'll choose fewer. It's a good thing, but there are pitfalls and opportunities involved.

Four kinds of people who will breed regardless are coming to mind:
1. Wealthy - out of fancy
2. Mentally retarded - unable to manage breeding.
3. Criminally minded and yet resourceful antisocials - by enslaving women and forcing childrearing upon them.
4. Deeply religious people like Amish, devoted Catholics and ultraorhodox Jews.

But don't worry. It is projected that within next 40 years Africa will be a home to 2.5-3 billions of people.
American liberals may succeed in "saving" 1 in 20 on the top of Latin American background migration.
There will be plenty of people in the US but not many WASP-s in coming decades.

Speaking of which, right now boomers are aging in place rather than moving into "homes" like their parents did. 75% still own the old 3/2 and it's constraining supply. Eventually, (10 years?) they are going to start dying off and housing prices are going to fall, in some place a lot. Shrinking property tax rolls in those places mean fewer services. Already at least 10 states are losing population regularly as old people die and young people move to cities, partly for services. Again, smaller populations mean smaller gdp and tax base.

Baby boomers deep down in their hearts do understand that "homes" these days, particularly those subsidized, are already out of necessity becoming to be euthanasia centers, so they are avoiding them.
They don't want gypsum and rat poison added to their food and they are concerned about mismatched drug mixtures deliberately prescribed by doctors there.
But don't worry about properties being occupied for too long and out of market.
Substantial proportion of american homes are of "throw away" type, made of cardboard and wood planks. They are designed to last about 50 years, so they will fall apart together with aging occupiers.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 12:37:23

Pops wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I have to wonder how long it will take people to figure out that overpopulation is the primary problem, and be willing to DO something about it.

... immigrants...

2018 had the lowest population growth rate in 80 years — including immigration.
The lowest natural growth rate ever as far as I can tell

So since when is the US the globe, re population growth? Since when is a discussion of US immigration policy only about Mexico? Since when is a ONE YEAR statistic a good measure for coming up with long term policy?

You don't seem to be at all serious or genuine re the discussion. Straw men can be thrown out from both sides of the aisle.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 14:49:54

It will be interesting to see how politics in California are effected by the blackouts. My gut tells me it will initially swing left then hard right.

But we shall see over the course of a few years.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Pops » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 15:27:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So since when is the US the globe, re population growth?

You said:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:This is an example of why taking endless illegal immigrants into the US is a bad idea

And I talked about how immigration is propping up the US economy because our natural growth rate is low and falling.

you wrote:when is a ONE YEAR statistic a good measure for coming up with long term policy?

I posted a huge chart, you saw that, right?
You get that it shows natural and overall growth has been falling for decades, right?

Here's one that goes a little further back. Except the Echo Boom in the 80s it's been trending down since the Pill:
Image

Since when is a discussion of US immigration policy only about Mexico?

Since you said "endless illegal immigration"
75% of illegals come from south of the border and of course are the target (along with muslims) of an entire political party. Our current immigration policy (and by extension every other policy), to which many here apparently subscribe, is that blond christians are OK, everyone else not. That's not the America I want. I want a country where we're all equals, whichever color or whatever.

You don't seem to be at all serious or genuine re the discussion. Straw men can be thrown out from both sides of the aisle.

Not serious? I've posted information and arguments and you've posted platitudes.
If you have fact/argument post it up.

--
Turns out I'm quite protectionist, I believe degrowth is the only out long run and will happen voluntarily or otherwise. Either way we should have our eyes open and back the policy that is right for the right reasons, not one of base dog whistles like "endless illegal immigration."

Not because I'm some great humanitarian, but for no other reason than once we're on that road and things start downhill, the line of who is "ilegal" will surely expand.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 16:33:17

Newfie wrote:It will be interesting to see how politics in California are effected by the blackouts. My gut tells me it will initially swing left then hard right.

But we shall see over the course of a few years.

I disagree.
It will swing left and later even more left.
Nearly all ailing societies are swinging left until nothing is left out of economy.
It might swing right once bubonic plague have emerged in Californian cities due to unchecked rat infestation and thousands (or tens of thousands) are dead but even here I am not sure.

Meantime affluent people of California will add Tesla Powerwalls battery systems to their existing PV installations.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 17:05:32

Our current immigration policy (and by extension every other policy), to which many here apparently subscribe, is that blond christians are OK, everyone else not. That's not the America I want. I want a country where we're all equals, whichever color or whatever.


that assumption doesn't jive with where legal immigration has been coming from as of late.

The top 10 source countries for legal immigrants to the US are Mexico, China, Cuba, India, Dominican Republic, Phillipines, Vietnam, El Savador, Jamaica and Haiti. Not a lot of "blonde christians" coming from those countries I don't think.

I don't think too many people are concerned about legal immigration (as long as there is a sound policy in place that is adhered to), it is the illegal immigration where the issues arise. Are you supporting illegal immigration?
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 01:25:13

rockdoc123 wrote:I don't think too many people are concerned about legal immigration (as long as there is a sound policy in place that is adhered to), it is the illegal immigration where the issues arise.

Amen. The complaints that anyone who has a problem with illegal immigration are a bunch of racists is about as rational as calling the entire GOP party a bunch of racists.

It's an easy shot, but it's completely irrational, and it certainly doesn't help advance the discussion re reaching some sort of rational long range policy on US immigration.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 08:00:03

That's not the America I want. I want a country where we're all equals, whichever color or whatever.


Hihi. Good luck with that. It's the majority that determines what is "equal". The 3rd-worldization of the US is well ongoing. Do you think once it's complete there will be an "equal" society?
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 08:04:17

rockdoc123 wrote:I don't think too many people are concerned about legal immigration


what's the difference between legal and illegal immigration?
I don't see any. Is there any? Both change the culture and fabric of the host permanently.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby GHung » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 08:22:12

mousepad wrote:........

Both change the culture and fabric of the host permanently.


Change? That's what cultures do, for a lot of reasons. Trying to prevent that or engineer some static utopia merely exposes the hubris of those who consider their culture as superior. It may well be, but reality doesn't give a shit, and such schemes generally don't turn out well in the long run.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 10:31:53

what's the difference between legal and illegal immigration?
I don't see any. Is there any? Both change the culture and fabric of the host permanently.


Exactly what part of the word "illegal" do you not understand?
standard definition:
contrary to or forbidden by law, especially criminal law.


There is a reason for laws, if you choose to ignore them then there is probably still room in the prison system for you.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 11:23:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:I don't think too many people are concerned about legal immigration (as long as there is a sound policy in place that is adhered to), it is the illegal immigration where the issues arise.

Amen. The complaints that anyone who has a problem with illegal immigration are a bunch of racists is about as rational as calling the entire GOP party a bunch of racists.

It's an easy shot, but it's completely irrational, and it certainly doesn't help advance the discussion re reaching some sort of rational long range policy on US immigration.


A "rational long range policy" would not be focusing on "endless illegals" "invasion" infestation" "shit-hole countries"
But a racist, white supremacist politics would.

Image
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 11:27:43

See the definition of partisanship isn't defending or espousing one view or another, or even one party or another, it's defending the party anointed regardless of mistakes, crimes, incompetence. Because to admit their error is to admit one's own mistake.

We aren't about to do that!
Especially when fox tells us daily that facts are a deep state conspiracy.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 12:23:39

mousepad wrote:
That's not the America I want. I want a country where we're all equals, whichever color or whatever.


Hihi. Good luck with that. It's the majority that determines what is "equal". The 3rd-worldization of the US is well ongoing. Do you think once it's complete there will be an "equal" society?

Society will be equal but Latinos living within this society will be more equal.
The most equal will be homeless black quier lesbians with HIV/AIDS.
American Jews must be looking with envy.
Up to now they was the most equal people in the US but within a decade or so it will change.
Americans already have decided to replace this:
Image
With that:
Image
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 12:26:59

rockdoc123 wrote:There is a reason for laws, if you choose to ignore them then there is probably still room in the prison system for you.

It used to be in the past.
Now if you are from any of protected groups you will get away with a lot, even if police knows your deeds.
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Re: Cali blackouts coming

Unread postby GHung » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 12:39:05

EnergyUnlimited wrote:......

American Jews must be looking with envy.
Up to now they was the most equal people in the US but within a decade or so it will change.
...........


Pretty sure you don't know many American Jews. Always handy to have someone else to blame instead of yourself though, eh?
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