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Bold Predictions 2022

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sat 01 Jan 2022, 10:05:39

When challenged with records of what they have said at the beginning of 2021 they will insist that it is not their voice, on films are impostors and materials are manipulated.


And why do you even care about that? Honestly.

I mean, the only thing you should be caring about when talking about the coronavirus is how to make sure that as few people it's reasonably doable get sick, at least until you are pretty sure that the virus has mutated to a form mild enough that people don't end up in the ICU. Don't tell me that there is some sort of trade-off between the economy and how many people get sick, because there isn't. Asian countries have proved conclusively that early, strong lockdowns not only reduce the number of sick people, they're also better for the economy in the long run, because they prevent later, longer lockdowns. So, if you care about anything but making sure that as few people as reasonably possible get sick till the disease is mild, you better make sure you have a damn good explanation for why could you possibly care.

Now, I am aware that some people say that there's been two pandemics going on at the same time: one of coronavirus and another of mental illness, possibly including psychosomatic illness, and the causes of the second are debatable. And maybe somehow the two of them got smashed together in some people's minds. Which would explain all those otherwise inexplicable obsessions on issues like the one you point out.

I suggest you seek help if you find yourself being obsessed about telling everyone about some issue that doesn't really matter, especially if it upsets other people. All right, I recognize I have just described most types of interest in politics as a mental health issue. If you think I'm wrong, convince me.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 01 Jan 2022, 11:43:17

Doly wrote:And why do you even care about that? Honestly.

I mean, the only thing you should be caring about when talking about the coronavirus is how to make sure that as few people it's reasonably doable get sick, at least until you are pretty sure that the virus has mutated to a form mild enough that people don't end up in the ICU.

Sadly it does not work that way.
Billions will need to get it before a virus has such an opportunity to mutate.
If it is not transmitted, how can it mutate?
It is that simple.
If you want a virus to mutate faster into harmless form you should make your own contribution and just get it.

Don't tell me that there is some sort of trade-off between the economy and how many people get sick, because there isn't. Asian countries have proved conclusively that early, strong lockdowns not only reduce the number of sick people, they're also better for the economy in the long run, because they prevent later, longer lockdowns.

No lockdowns at all would be even more beneficial.
Economy would work normally while lots of of cripples with limited mileage left would just die off making an enormous favour for western ailing social security systems.
But perhaps in Asia perception is different because such social security systems don't exist there so all sort of cripples are not such a burden.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 Jan 2022, 13:33:22

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Well I really think we need, and hope we get, a better batch of officials over the next election cycles.


What, you figure America has grown a better batch of politicians when no one was looking, or are you just an eternal optimist?

No I think the American public is sick and tired of the jerks we have now and will not support or vote for any less then a much better group.


If by "jerks we have now" means across the entirety of this century, then sure, I could go with that. But if it is specific to just the current brand of jerks, said jerks being in the same vein if by different mechanisms and mannerisms than the last administration of jerks, then you hopes are most likely to be in vain.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 02 Jan 2022, 15:44:14

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Well I really think we need, and hope we get, a better batch of officials over the next election cycles.


What, you figure America has grown a better batch of politicians when no one was looking, or are you just an eternal optimist?

No I think the American public is sick and tired of the jerks we have now and will not support or vote for any less then a much better group.


And who would that "better batch" be? If it has Trump for POTUS, GOOD LUCK with that re being objectively "better" on anything but flagrant lying frequency.

And if "better" is things like restricting abortion rights, the majority of the US will take a big PASS on that.

Science denial? Is that a good thing? If so, sure, the GOP dominates there. But they don't get my vote on that, for sure.

I'm all for the GOP re smaller government and spending less (except re the military, of course), but aside from that, why is the GOP "better" again, by any objective standard? Or even any reasonable standard?

And I'll FULLY acknowledge that total government spending is a BIG DEAL, which is why I remain firmly in the "moderate" camp.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby gollum » Wed 05 Jan 2022, 15:48:46

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Polybius wrote:Day 1 of 2022, Russia takes Ukraine while China takes Taiwan

NATO gets pushed out of Europe and US carriers all sunk in the Asia Pacific

Brandon gets sacrificed by the Deep State

is.gd/USAcamps


Oh the first will be wonderful to revisit in 7 days, the others we can chalk up for later. If this kind of overly specific, doom-centric all channels, all the time claptrap doesn't look like StarvingPuttyTat, I don't know what does.

Especially the decades long track record of such (endless) specific doomer predictions on this site, for decades.


Doomers might be off on their timing but the trend line is that things are getting worse. Back in 1991 after the first gulf war it would have been unimaginable to them that we'd be facing two near peer adversaries abroad and political divisions that are nearly as deep as they were in the late 1850s. We'd have never imagined going to a car dealer and finding zero new cars on a lot of lots. No one in their right mind would have predicted we'd be routed from a place like Afghanistan buy guys with AKs wearing bathrobes. No way would anyone have predicted double digit inflation. My belief if that at the core of the entire mess resides the twin specters of over population and depleting resources.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 05 Jan 2022, 18:32:35

gollum wrote:Doomers might be off on their timing but the trend line is that things are getting worse.


Compared to when? Doomers have been yearning, and pointing out the signs of, the apocalypse before the internet was invented. Religious screed probably gets the first cut at Apocalypticism. Doomers that came afterwards did the same thing, usually without for a second considering why all the other ones had failed. Claiming, as you are now, that the signs and trends are getting worse.

gollum wrote: Back in 1991 after the first gulf war it would have been unimaginable to them that we'd be facing two near peer adversaries abroad and political divisions that are nearly as deep as they were in the late 1850s. We'd have never imagined going to a car dealer and finding zero new cars on a lot of lots. No one in their right mind would have predicted we'd be routed from a place like Afghanistan buy guys with AKs wearing bathrobes. No way would anyone have predicted double digit inflation. My belief if that at the core of the entire mess resides the twin specters of over population and depleting resources.


Wow...quite a litany of random events that haven't led to collapse any more than the 6 claimed peak oils so far this century. Any chance you could point to, like, a REAL collapse metric? Starvation as the leading cause of death in the First World? Wholesale abandonment of at least a Second World country do to climate change or rising sea levels? No one could have imagined the US becoming Saudi America at the same time it became the largest natural gas producer in the world either, interesting that in this forum you don't include that one.

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Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 07 Jan 2022, 14:45:44

I'm going to have to change one of my predictions. The one about Joe Manchin becoming a presidential candidate. He is 74 years old now so 77 in 2024 and I think we have seen more then enough septuagenarian leaders to stay away from then for a couple of decades at least.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Pops » Fri 07 Jan 2022, 15:26:30

I'll predict that Mansion stays D, he has more power right now than most anyone in government.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Fri 07 Jan 2022, 15:45:03

Sadly it does not work that way.
Billions will need to get it before a virus has such an opportunity to mutate.
If it is not transmitted, how can it mutate?
It is that simple.
If you want a virus to mutate faster into harmless form you should make your own contribution and just get it.


Sure. Why do we want medicine at all? After all, natural selection pressures can take care of all diseases. Look at animals.

I thought humans were supposed to be a little smarter than that.

No lockdowns at all would be even more beneficial.
Economy would work normally while lots of of cripples with limited mileage left would just die off making an enormous favour for western ailing social security systems.
But perhaps in Asia perception is different because such social security systems don't exist there so all sort of cripples are not such a burden.


And covid creates a whole new bunch of cripples, so you are left with a lot of dead people and a lot of cripples as well. You have no justification, and you know it.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 08 Jan 2022, 02:32:46

Pops wrote:I'll predict that Mansion stays D, he has more power right now than most anyone in government.

Maybe not. When Jim Jeffords (VT) switched parties they sweetened the deal to give him seniority and committee chairmanships. After November the senate will probably be majority Republican so if Joe wants to keep the power he has now he needs to take a similar deal before the midterm elections.
He would be an asset to the GOP which he is to the Democrats. They just don't realize just how many big mistakes he is keeping them from making.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sat 08 Jan 2022, 10:43:34

I'll do something I've been doing for the past ten years, which is taking the Financial Times writers predictions and noting the ones I disagree with.

Financial Times predictions:

https://www.ft.com/content/8909b60f-01a ... 8e46ecb3c9

My objections:

Will France elect a far-right president?

Possibly.

Will China invade Taiwan?

Possibly, with a Crimea-style invasion (no shots fired), if there is a suitable opportunity (riots in Taiwan).

Can Iran be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon?

No.

Will Tesla shares end the year higher than now?

No.

Will many other countries follow China’s crypto clampdown?

Yes, in Asia.

Will the bubble in art-related NFTs burst?

Yes.

My record so far has been slightly better than the FT writers (where we differ, I've been right more often than wrong).
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby DiggitySmiggity » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 01:20:09

gollum wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Polybius wrote:Day 1 of 2022, Russia takes Ukraine while China takes Taiwan

NATO gets pushed out of Europe and US carriers all sunk in the Asia Pacific

Brandon gets sacrificed by the Deep State

is.gd/USAcamps


Oh the first will be wonderful to revisit in 7 days, the others we can chalk up for later. If this kind of overly specific, doom-centric all channels, all the time claptrap doesn't look like StarvingPuttyTat, I don't know what does.

Especially the decades long track record of such (endless) specific doomer predictions on this site, for decades.


Doomers might be off on their timing but the trend line is that things are getting worse. Back in 1991 after the first gulf war it would have been unimaginable to them that we'd be facing two near peer adversaries abroad and political divisions that are nearly as deep as they were in the late 1850s. We'd have never imagined going to a car dealer and finding zero new cars on a lot of lots. No one in their right mind would have predicted we'd be routed from a place like Afghanistan buy guys with AKs wearing bathrobes. No way would anyone have predicted double digit inflation. My belief if that at the core of the entire mess resides the twin specters of over population and depleting resources.



US wasn't "routed" by anyone. They had the Taliban in full submission and they only came out of their caves after US left.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 03:26:56

I predict that in 5 years time this forum will still be active, but with less members, and will still be hung-up on politics, and for many, Hopium.

I predict that the electric car delusion will have been replaced by a completely different techie delusion, possibly involving cheap energy sources and possibly some new food production method, like extracting protein from the oceans on a vast scale to feed the masses.

Fish, and plankton and sea greens, and protein from the sea.

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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 12:50:17

theluckycountry wrote:I predict that in 5 years time this forum will still be active, but with less members, and will still be hung-up on politics, and for many, Hopium.


Well, considering what a bust the last 6 peak oils have been, can you blame the congregation for wanting to talk about other things? You have a lap of luxury lifestyle, it isn't as though you've got any skin in the game.

Oh, and to keep with the theme of the thread, I predict Plant will continue to troll. :-D
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby gollum » Tue 18 Jan 2022, 16:24:29

US wasn't "routed" by anyone. They had the Taliban in full submission and they only came out of their caves after US left.[/quote]


You can win every battle and still lose the war, we lost.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Wed 19 Jan 2022, 16:09:21

Well, considering what a bust the last 6 peak oils have been, can you blame the congregation for wanting to talk about other things?


The forum always had space for talking all sorts of topics. But it did use to have a lot less trolls, and moderators that moved personal insults to the Hall of Flames.

Anyway, previous peaks in oil production have not been a bust. They have just been previous peaks. Your attitude is much like saying that people interested in when is the last [name here species on the verge of extinction] going to be spotted, are gutted when another one is seen.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 19 Jan 2022, 19:29:12

Doly wrote:
Well, considering what a bust the last 6 peak oils have been, can you blame the congregation for wanting to talk about other things?


The forum always had space for talking all sorts of topics. But it did use to have a lot less trolls, and moderators that moved personal insults to the Hall of Flames.


And it easily dispatched those who didn't stick to the script required by the Bible. I think my first year of posting history here was erased by Monte in a fit of pique.

Doly wrote:Anyway, previous peaks in oil production have not been a bust. They have just been previous peaks.


True. But at the time, they weren't previous peaks, they were THE claimed peak. Daring to argue otherwise...naughty naughty....banned you should be!

Doly wrote: Your attitude is much like saying that people interested in when is the last [name here species on the verge of extinction] going to be spotted, are gutted when another one is seen.


My attitude, if I was to describe it, might be sarcastic jockularity wrapped around a professional researchers understanding of the history, geologic, economic and technical aspects of peak oil.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 07:29:13

There should be labor tensions developing in the US. Americans don't know they have to fight for justice sometimes. At first it will be that people quit all of the bad jobs, then they will start to fight over changing what is left. I don't know if quitting will have the economic impact that some are looking for. They may have to learn how to fight.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 15:21:12

And it easily dispatched those who didn't stick to the script required by the Bible. I think my first year of posting history here was erased by Monte in a fit of pique.


Not surprised by that, given how often you resort to personal insult. It's entirely correct to moderate away somebody who regularly resorts to ad hominen attacks. I'm disappointed that Tanada doesn't do it more often.

Daring to argue otherwise...naughty naughty....banned you should be!


Nope. I remember there was a guy that called himself Bugs or Bugs Bunny at the time I posted here. He was unfailingly polite and often making that particular argument with intelligent remarks. He didn't get banned. But then, that was before the whole Internet became a poisoned well.

My attitude, if I was to describe it, might be sarcastic jockularity wrapped around a professional researchers understanding of the history, geologic, economic and technical aspects of peak oil.


You have not proved yet that you are a professional researcher to me.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 17:25:24

Doly wrote:I remember there was a guy that called himself Bugs or Bugs Bunny at the time I posted here. He was unfailingly polite and often making that particular argument with intelligent remarks. He didn't get banned. But then, that was before the whole Internet became a poisoned well.


Tyler, one of the old moderators here long since gone, made the same suggestion once. Beat them with ideas! he suggested in PMs.

Can you offer me advice Doly, on how you beat a belief system with ideas? Just as we see in modern American politics, we have large chunks of the population who believe something, and facts, photographic evidence, recordings, signed documents, NONE of it matter. The election was stolen. Say otherwise? TROLL!!

How do you beat a belief system Doly? I would love to know, maybe us Americans could apply it to our politics as well and have honest discussions on our future, American consumption of everything, growth, immigration, guns, health care, etc etc.

Doly wrote:
My attitude, if I was to describe it, might be sarcastic jockularity wrapped around a professional researchers understanding of the history, geologic, economic and technical aspects of peak oil.


You have not proved yet that you are a professional researcher to me.


I don't have to prove a fact to anyone. I'm still trying to determine if you are more like Dennis, who I have tagged as an honest arguer, I have sent him diagrams explaining points, he has admitted where his system is lacking and how it can be made better, or if you are just someone fiddling around on a computer running a model without internalizing the reasonableness of the very physics underpinning the model, which ignores the entire science of how humans behave and the utility value of energy forms rather than just the quantity of it.

I mean really.....Baduila says that the temperature of a system changes when you remove mass from it, you know it's a crock, I know it's a crock, and you claim I'M the one who doesn't understand thermodynamics? Please.....you apparently didn't pay attention to the WORDS he wrote that contradict the very principles he claims to use in his calculations.
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