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Bold Predictions 2022

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 13:36:05

Pops wrote:Thanks C,
There are only 12 people on this site and thousands of threads.
This one is for predictions
Don't muck it up


And the rules of these kinds of threads are for predictions within the given timeframe? Inside of 2022 only?

And this is peakoil.com, we can't even talk much about that topic much nowadays because of our habit of predicting the entire focus of the website and getting it wrong, so we're already mucked it up.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 14:47:35

And this is peakoil.com, we can't even talk much about that topic much nowadays because of our habit of predicting the entire focus of the website and getting it wrong, so we're already mucked it up.


Financial sites spend their whole time making predictions and getting them wrong, and nobody says that they've "mucked it up". And a number of predictions here were spot on. I remember very clearly that, while all financial sites were saying that the housing bubble was nothing to worry about, the consensus on this site was that it was inevitable that it would pop and cause serious financial trouble, which it did.

As for the prediction for the date of "peak oil", it's only messed up because the definition of "oil" keeps shifting. Stuff that comes out of the ground that before wouldn't have been classed as "oil" because it's more like peanut butter, is now "oil".
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 16:07:07

OK My WAGs:
Yes Covid will kill more Republicans then Democrats this year. A majority of the un vaccinated are Republicans age 30 to 46 and if you assume all of them will eventually be infected and the one percent death rate holds the GOP might lose 300,000 or so likely voters. But as they are spread out between both Red and Blue states that probably will not swing any election results.
It looks like the midterms will be a shellacking for the Dems and they deserve it for stubbornly sticking to policies that are clearly not working.
I predict Biden will have a stroke or Heart attack by spring and Harris will become president.
I expect Manchin and Sinima to both switch to the GOP party after the mid terms.
Manchin will become a leading GOP candidate for president in 24.
Inflation will continue as long as the Democrats suppress domestic oil production, so last through 2024, and will approach 15% per year.
The stock markets will take a "correction" of about twenty percent which will knock off the speculation factor of the high tech growth stocks (Tesla etc.) and return share prices to those supported by fundamentals. It will then march back up again but probably at a more typical ten percent per year rate.
Weather patterns will change and the Western drought will end for now.
Charter schools will become the new standard and every parent will have a ,say $10,000, voucher per student to spend at any school who's graduates are proficient.
This would include religious schools as long as the religious classes are a cost above and beyond the $10,000 and paid for by the parent.
The current supreme court will make that possible.
The Supreme court will overturn Roe. vs. Wade ,which will enrage women and make my prediction about the midterms in doubt.
That is the trouble with making predictions. One gets in the way of another.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 17:53:50

Doly wrote:
And this is peakoil.com, we can't even talk much about that topic much nowadays because of our habit of predicting the entire focus of the website and getting it wrong, so we're already mucked it up.


Financial sites spend their whole time making predictions and getting them wrong, and nobody says that they've "mucked it up".


Economics is a social science. The geologic, physics and statistical principles of the geosciences are not. You understand how one is bound to the rules of the universe, and the other is whatever nonsense they feel like saying at breakfast, and no one calls them to account when they change it by dinner?

And this is a prediction thread, so if you want to continue this type of conversation, it might need to be elsewhere. Unless you wish to predict that economics will suddenly stop being a social sciece in 2022 or something?

Doly wrote:As for the prediction for the date of "peak oil", it's only messed up because the definition of "oil" keeps shifting. Stuff that comes out of the ground that before wouldn't have been classed as "oil" because it's more like peanut butter, is now "oil".


Obviously when dealing with oil, we can easily call upon the definitions that the experts write, in order to not be confused. Here is the USGS providing the petroleum type definitions, left side of the fact sheet. They don't appear to have changed that I am aware of. Are you implying that peak oilers themselves don't know what oil is, or are uncomfortable with common physical properties of fluids like viscosity?
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby diemos » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 21:01:36

Omicron will be the last wave.

It will collapse the US health care system.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 22:11:39

vtsnowedin wrote: I predict Biden will have a stroke or Heart attack by spring and Harris will become president.


Could be.

In the near term I"m worried about what will happen if/when Biden catches Omicron.....and that could happen in the next week or two. Sen. Elizabeth Warren just announced she's got covid in spite of being double vaccinated AND boosted. Omicron is spreading rapidly in DC right now.

vtsnowedin wrote: I expect Manchin and Sinima to both switch to the GOP party after the mid terms.


Just today elderly Bernie Sanders attacked Manchin and then frail and senile old Biden lost his temper and blasted Manchin as well. I expected it from elderly Sen. Sanders but it was dumb and it showed a real lack of class for Biden to do that.....BIden is the head of the D party....its disrespectful for Biden to make personal attacks on Manchin----- it looks like Biden despises Manchin and wants to drive Machine out of the D party. I wouldn't be surprised if Manchin decides he's had enough of the personal childish attacks from Biden and the other Ds and decides to switch to the R party quite soon. That would immediately swing control of the Senate back to the Rs.

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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 01:46:45

evilgenius wrote:They are using the old Silk Road lessons to establish themselves in the Middle East and Africa. The sea is nice, but it is ruled by someone else. Whatever China is doing in response to the break down of the global order, they will do it on land, most likely, away from the sea.

That's probably why hypersonic weapons will become important. Two or three times the speed of the SR-71. I think that was a minute from horizon to horizon, at so many tens of thousands of feet. They could replace carriers as the means to project power. They could do payloads, or drones. An air force of drones, all of a sudden.

What it would do would be to provide those powers that had the capability to operate such things, with the ability to enfeeble any power that didn't. They could wreck that power's infrastructure, even in far away land locked places, at will. It would actually be far cheaper than colonization, which was always how these things had to be done before.

The US would be suddenly vulnerable because it relies upon a nuclear deterrent for all actions against its infrastructure. But a sudden, wide scale drone attack would not rise up to the same standard as a chemical attack, or an EMP, for that matter. It would be very hard to justify nuclear reprisal. The US will invest in this tech.


A couple of quick points here. Almost a decade ago now China demonstrated the capability of loading standard cargo containers on rail cars in eastern China near the sea and shipping them all the way to Madrid Spain in about 24 days. At the same time a typical cargo ship loaded container with the same destination took over twice as long because for efficiency reason international cargo ships have become ridiculously large. This means it takes longer to load the containers at a specialized deep draft sea port, transit half the world to another deep draft sea port, unload, sort and do secondary shipping to place the cargo in its final destination. This is more or less proven that with modern railroad freight you can deliver your goods twice as fast anywhere your connected railroad system makes possible. Potentially for China this is all of mainland Asia, Europe and Africa though negotiations to connect the diverse networks through Jordan (Asia) to Egypt (Africa) to tie in with the rapidly rebuilding or new building going on over that entire continent all financed by China over the last 20 years.

Second comment. The US Navy discovered way back around 1989 that using swarm attacks any land based opponent with their unlimited capability for storing ready to fire cruise missiles could overwhelm even the largest and best defended USN task force. The math is relatively simple, a task force with 20 ships has at best about 500 dedicated and ready to fire anti missile missiles deployed in their formation. Because most of these SAM systems are designed to expect misses at least 25% of the time even against subsonic cruise missiles like the oldest Exocet and Harpoon missiles from the 1980's they automatically fire two missiles at each incoming target so if the first is a clean miss they have a good chance of knocking down the target with the second missile. In a swarm style attack if the first missile fails to lock onto its initial target and flies past it then it can be retargeted on a second incoming missile by the autonomous defense systems.

So if you are a land based power like India and you take offense at an American task force arrogantly moving down your coast you can for the expense of say 1,000 missiles sink all 20 ships in the task force by launching your missiles in say waves of 50 with 5 minute pauses between launches from different emplacements. IOW you fire 50 missiles and they swarm out all getting knocked down with the use of 75 defensive SAM missiles then another 50 go out right behind the first group from a slightly different angle from a second launch site and these soak up another 80 defensive missiles because by now some of the smaller vessels will be running out of SAM defenses. Your third launch, now 10 minutes after the first volley, send out another 50 missiles and soaks up 85 missiles and this time a few 'leakers' get through to the ships on the outer edge of the formation causing moderate to severe damage depending on the details.

At 15 minutes into your attack you have launched 200 missiles and the USN has used up almost half of their defensive missiles before even starting to knock down your third set of 50. Basically all of the small vessels are now 'dry' and the crews on the undamaged ones are frantically trying to move stored missiles into the launcher racks to help shoot down the next wave. This means the fourth wave only faces 60 missiles and though that knocks down 45 of the attackers the other five get through to the CIWS radar guided Gatling gun defenses and three of those hit their targets again doing moderate to severe damage based on circumstances.

By this time the 20 minute mark has passed and another 50 missiles are inbound with only 50 defensive SAM missiles rising up to meet them in the chaotic battle. This time 10 get into very close range and 6 of those hit their target vessels. This has the USN task force down from 20 ships in less than half an hour to 13 ships, several of them damaged.

The other 7 ships are already sunk or in the process of sinking. In essence once a cruiser/destroyer/frigate is hit the first time it takes more than 5 minutes to get the weapon systems back up and running so ships damaged in wave 2 or 3 tend to be sunk in wave 4 or 5.

At 25 minutes the land military launches another 50 missile wave and this one only faces 30 defensive missiles because several of the smaller ships were sunk before their storage missiles could be moved to the launch systems and used which from the offense viewpoint is even better than those missiles being fired and missing their targets.

Somewhere between wave 2 and 3 the navy commander turned his task force away from the land and went to max speed which also means damaged ships fall behind and take the brunt of the next attack. The biggest target is the Aircraft Carrier which is a huge radar target despite the best defensive electronic spoofing systems can do to deceive the attacking missiles and the next wave in has 25 missiles unscathed by the SAM volley weakly defending the surviving ships. With 13 targets and a 55% hit rate thanks to close in defensive guns this wave sinks another 5 Navy vessels leaving just 8 survivors half an hour into the battle.

At this point the survivors have all either been hit and are frantically trying to restore defenses and engines or they are effectively out of SAM missiles because only the three Aegis cruisers carried more than a score or so. After fighting down or being struck by 250 relatively cheap subsonic cruise missiles the task force is effectively dead. Though still floating the carrier has damage that prevents launching or landing fixed wing aircraft making it a 'mission kill' even if it miraculously escapes. The smaller the vessels the worse the damage from even a single hit and the 8 surviving but damaged ships are doomed when the 300th missile arrives with 25 missiles actually hitting their now barely defended targets. Being very large the carrier absorbs 8 missiles from this wave while 6 of the remaining vessels are sunk or rapidly sinking. By this tame the senior surviving American commander is frantically trying to surrender but his 2 remaining ships are badly damaged and basically sitting ducks. By the time the land based power knows the ships are no longer any sort of threat, whether that fire off 10 missiles to complete the elimination of the task force or not is a political decision but given that they initiated hostilities I will say that with 310 missiles they sank 20 USN surface ships. The carrier alone cost around 7 Billion dollars counting ship and aircraft. Figure another 3 Billion for the other 19 ships in the task force and the direct cost ratio works out to less than 500 million spent by the land force or a 20:1 return on the investment.

That was with old slow 1980's era cruise missiles. Using modern supersonic or hypersonic missiles means you need fewer missiles to sink the task force but the expense of each individual missile is also several times more expensive. No matter how you measure it however it has been known since the 1982 Falklands war that a land power willing to spend the money on one time use cruise missiles could cause multiple times the expense in losses to the naval force. Unless someone invents a force field like they use in Star Trek Shields or Phasers able to shoot down incoming missiles without running out of defensive ammunition this equation of death is pretty much reality. Heck way back in 1945 the Japanese launched around 350 Kamakazi aircraft at allied naval forces and they sank outright 81 ships with another 195 damaged. If the Japanese could have built and manned more aircraft they could have in a very practical sense lengthened the war by preventing the USN from building the forward supply base needed for the invasion. They would have still lost simply because the North American industrial capacity was out of range of retaliation and would eventually overwhelm their capability to continue building and manning Kamakazi aircraft. By 1945 the USN alone had over 3,000 military ships and hundreds more under construction. A WW II task force was more like 80 ships though the average size of individual ships was much smaller than 2022 sizes. I come from a navy family with my father and two of my brothers having served in the navy but looking beyond tradition the usefulness of the surface fleet against a technologically advanced opponent became irrelevant 70 years ago hen the first radar homing missiles were developed. No ship can survive repeated missile hits over a short time period and even a simple radar homing circuit is good enough to hit a slow or unmoving ship.

I hate to say it but our surface Navy is a pure luxury costing trillions of dollars simply because we choose to do so. Homing torpedoes and homing missiles made our surface navy pretty much obsolete by 1952 yet here we are 70 years later pouring ever more money down that rat hole. Submarines and shore based aircraft still have useful roles for naval defense, but for the rest of it the Navy is less useful than the Coast Guard.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 05:39:41

I also think the Supreme Court will overturn Row vs. Wade. But I think that will become a major catalyst for change. It will be the last thing the religious right does, before they begin to fall apart.

After the Christian meltdown begins, it will be the most dominating news on the planet. The virus will have only been an introduction to how weird life can get.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 09:30:33

Yes, SCOTUS will continue making ideological rulings, including overturning Roe.
(I'm ambivalent on abortion, legal and few probably describes my ideal. I lean to personal autonomy... before the 70s the republicans had a similar libertarian stance, before the ownership decided they needed Catholic votes to lower taxes that is.)

Our SCOTUS has more power than any similar body in the world, the only people who pretend SCOTUS isn't political are the justices themselves. The rise of the powerful court is part and parcel of the continuing self-destruction by a Congress that can't focus on anything but elections and has abdicated most power to the other 2 branches. Constitutional rights are a blessed thing, except when they are dictated by unelected, unaccountable, ideological judges. The liberal Warren court virtually remade constitutional law, expanding rights and liberties that almost singlehandedly created the reactionary right we have today and by extension their ideological SCOTUS majority. /muck

This might affect the mid-terms but I doubt it, too much un-normal that must be blamed on the Ds who ran on normal..
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 10:54:53

I expect peak oil to be determined to have happened before 2030, when we finally know with any degree of certainty.

I expect the Republicans to win majorities in Congress in the 2022 elections.

I expect a total of around 1 million Americans to have died of COVID-19 by the end of 2022. I would really welcome being wrong on this guess.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 13:33:21

Tanada wrote:A couple of quick points here. Almost a decade ago now China demonstrated the capability of loading standard cargo containers on rail cars in eastern China near the sea and shipping them all the way to Madrid Spain in about 24 days. At the same time a typical cargo ship loaded container with the same destination took over twice as long because for efficiency reason international cargo ships have become ridiculously large. This means it takes longer to load the containers at a specialized deep draft sea port, transit half the world to another deep draft sea port, unload, sort and do secondary shipping to place the cargo in its final destination. This is more or less proven that with modern railroad freight you can deliver your goods twice as fast anywhere your connected railroad system makes possible. Potentially for China this is all of mainland Asia, Europe and Africa though negotiations to connect the diverse networks through Jordan (Asia) to Egypt (Africa) to tie in with the rapidly rebuilding or new building going on over that entire continent all financed by China over the last 20 years.

Second comment. The US Navy discovered way back around 1989 that using swarm attacks any land based opponent with their unlimited capability for storing ready to fire cruise missiles could overwhelm even the largest and best defended USN task force. The math is relatively simple, a task force with 20 ships has at best about 500 dedicated and ready to fire anti missile missiles deployed in their formation. Because most of these SAM systems are designed to expect misses at least 25% of the time even against subsonic cruise missiles like the oldest Exocet and Harpoon missiles from the 1980's they automatically fire two missiles at each incoming target so if the first is a clean miss they have a good chance of knocking down the target with the second missile. In a swarm style attack if the first missile fails to lock onto its initial target and flies past it then it can be retargeted on a second incoming missile by the autonomous defense systems.

So if you are a land based power like India and you take offense at an American task force arrogantly moving down your coast you can for the expense of say 1,000 missiles sink all 20 ships in the task force by launching your missiles in say waves of 50 with 5 minute pauses between launches from different emplacements. IOW you fire 50 missiles and they swarm out all getting knocked down with the use of 75 defensive SAM missiles then another 50 go out right behind the first group from a slightly different angle from a second launch site and these soak up another 80 defensive missiles because by now some of the smaller vessels will be running out of SAM defenses. Your third launch, now 10 minutes after the first volley, send out another 50 missiles and soaks up 85 missiles and this time a few 'leakers' get through to the ships on the outer edge of the formation causing moderate to severe damage depending on the details.

At 15 minutes into your attack you have launched 200 missiles and the USN has used up almost half of their defensive missiles before even starting to knock down your third set of 50. Basically all of the small vessels are now 'dry' and the crews on the undamaged ones are frantically trying to move stored missiles into the launcher racks to help shoot down the next wave. This means the fourth wave only faces 60 missiles and though that knocks down 45 of the attackers the other five get through to the CIWS radar guided Gatling gun defenses and three of those hit their targets again doing moderate to severe damage based on circumstances.

By this time the 20 minute mark has passed and another 50 missiles are inbound with only 50 defensive SAM missiles rising up to meet them in the chaotic battle. This time 10 get into very close range and 6 of those hit their target vessels. This has the USN task force down from 20 ships in less than half an hour to 13 ships, several of them damaged.

The other 7 ships are already sunk or in the process of sinking. In essence once a cruiser/destroyer/frigate is hit the first time it takes more than 5 minutes to get the weapon systems back up and running so ships damaged in wave 2 or 3 tend to be sunk in wave 4 or 5.

At 25 minutes the land military launches another 50 missile wave and this one only faces 30 defensive missiles because several of the smaller ships were sunk before their storage missiles could be moved to the launch systems and used which from the offense viewpoint is even better than those missiles being fired and missing their targets.

Somewhere between wave 2 and 3 the navy commander turned his task force away from the land and went to max speed which also means damaged ships fall behind and take the brunt of the next attack. The biggest target is the Aircraft Carrier which is a huge radar target despite the best defensive electronic spoofing systems can do to deceive the attacking missiles and the next wave in has 25 missiles unscathed by the SAM volley weakly defending the surviving ships. With 13 targets and a 55% hit rate thanks to close in defensive guns this wave sinks another 5 Navy vessels leaving just 8 survivors half an hour into the battle.

At this point the survivors have all either been hit and are frantically trying to restore defenses and engines or they are effectively out of SAM missiles because only the three Aegis cruisers carried more than a score or so. After fighting down or being struck by 250 relatively cheap subsonic cruise missiles the task force is effectively dead. Though still floating the carrier has damage that prevents launching or landing fixed wing aircraft making it a 'mission kill' even if it miraculously escapes. The smaller the vessels the worse the damage from even a single hit and the 8 surviving but damaged ships are doomed when the 300th missile arrives with 25 missiles actually hitting their now barely defended targets. Being very large the carrier absorbs 8 missiles from this wave while 6 of the remaining vessels are sunk or rapidly sinking. By this tame the senior surviving American commander is frantically trying to surrender but his 2 remaining ships are badly damaged and basically sitting ducks. By the time the land based power knows the ships are no longer any sort of threat, whether that fire off 10 missiles to complete the elimination of the task force or not is a political decision but given that they initiated hostilities I will say that with 310 missiles they sank 20 USN surface ships. The carrier alone cost around 7 Billion dollars counting ship and aircraft. Figure another 3 Billion for the other 19 ships in the task force and the direct cost ratio works out to less than 500 million spent by the land force or a 20:1 return on the investment.

That was with old slow 1980's era cruise missiles. Using modern supersonic or hypersonic missiles means you need fewer missiles to sink the task force but the expense of each individual missile is also several times more expensive. No matter how you measure it however it has been known since the 1982 Falklands war that a land power willing to spend the money on one time use cruise missiles could cause multiple times the expense in losses to the naval force. Unless someone invents a force field like they use in Star Trek Shields or Phasers able to shoot down incoming missiles without running out of defensive ammunition this equation of death is pretty much reality. Heck way back in 1945 the Japanese launched around 350 Kamakazi aircraft at allied naval forces and they sank outright 81 ships with another 195 damaged. If the Japanese could have built and manned more aircraft they could have in a very practical sense lengthened the war by preventing the USN from building the forward supply base needed for the invasion. They would have still lost simply because the North American industrial capacity was out of range of retaliation and would eventually overwhelm their capability to continue building and manning Kamakazi aircraft. By 1945 the USN alone had over 3,000 military ships and hundreds more under construction. A WW II task force was more like 80 ships though the average size of individual ships was much smaller than 2022 sizes. I come from a navy family with my father and two of my brothers having served in the navy but looking beyond tradition the usefulness of the surface fleet against a technologically advanced opponent became irrelevant 70 years ago hen the first radar homing missiles were developed. No ship can survive repeated missile hits over a short time period and even a simple radar homing circuit is good enough to hit a slow or unmoving ship.

I hate to say it but our surface Navy is a pure luxury costing trillions of dollars simply because we choose to do so. Homing torpedoes and homing missiles made our surface navy pretty much obsolete by 1952 yet here we are 70 years later pouring ever more money down that rat hole. Submarines and shore based aircraft still have useful roles for naval defense, but for the rest of it the Navy is less useful than the Coast Guard.

That is quite the battle plan you have there. Consider that no battle plan survives the first contact with the enemy. With thirty years to think about it I expect the Navy has more then one contingency plan for any such attack.
For one I would expect that as soon as the first wave of weapons was directed at our naval vessels all attack weapons in range including SMLMs and carrier deployed aircraft would launch a counter attack on the bases launching said missiles and at every enemy navy vessel larger then a row boat. They might sink one of our fleets but we would sink all of theirs and consider that any one of our boomers is the third largest nuclear power in the world all by itself and would not take too kindly to the loss of it's sister ships.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 16:08:55

vtsnowedin wrote: I would expect that as soon as the first wave of weapons was directed at our naval vessels all attack weapons in range including SMLMs and carrier deployed aircraft would launch a counter attack on the bases launching said missiles and at every enemy navy vessel larger then a row boat. They might sink one of our fleets but we would sink all of theirs and consider that any one of our boomers is the third largest nuclear power in the world all by itself and would not take too kindly to the loss of it's sister ships.


I doubt that any US ship commander is authorized to fire at any foreign military vessel under any circumstances without first getting approval from Joe Biden.

And judging from the way Biden handled our military withdrawal from Afghanistan, I think Joe's first response to an attack on a US vessel, once he woke up from his nappie time, would be to immediately close all US military bases in the area and order all US forces to withdraw in a week, all the while lying about what he was doing. Any US civilians in the area would be left on their own to straggle home as best they could after Joe had ordered the US forces to pull back and get out of harms way as soon as possible.

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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 18:47:23

Another thing I didn't think of is the Jan 6 investigation. Aside from a bunch of patsies, no politician has gone to jail for the grand con job even though many were obviously involved in inciting the mob from november on—including trump first and foremost. I think it was the most shameful act by any group of politicians in a long time, maybe ever, so I can't have much of an open mind. There isn't any leverage or time for congress to act but I was the slightest encouraged when McConnell expressed the some tepid curiosity about the committee's findings last week, twice.

The justice department however has another 3 years regardless of the midterms. I hope some politicians will be held to account including trump, even though I have little faith the system is that functional. But that's my forecast, and I'm stickin to it: the committee recommends charges to DOJ on a variety of elected coup plotters including the traitor in chief in 2022.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby suxs » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 21:19:27

Planty, in you a theatre of the predictably absurd is constantly achieving new heights of self-parody. Amazing.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby suxs » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 21:33:23

I expect a total of around 1 million Americans to have died of COVID-19 by the end of 2022. I would really welcome being wrong on this guess.


JuanP, after years of invective and vitriol expressed toward the United States, your claim to care rings ever so hollow.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 21:54:58

Plantagenet wrote:I doubt that any US ship commander is authorized to fire at any foreign military vessel under any circumstances without first getting approval from Joe Biden.


The chain of command is what it is, but like the nuclear football I expect it has been modified to work within the allotted time between launch and strike. As to Joe he will be tossed out of bed and told what to do by his handlers. But he will not be there that much longer so that problem will be on the shoulders of his successors.
Regardless of the first wave results I expect by the second wave the correct order ( to aggressively defend themselves) will be given if it is not a standing order.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 21 Dec 2021, 06:57:42

I think the only reason to fear the US not hitting back is confusion. The US is, by far, the largest military on earth. Sink a carrier strike group, and they have several more.

What sort of confusion? I think confusion over whether the retaliation is justified. Because the biggest threat with hypersonic weapons is that they are so conventional. When they can strike so precisely over such distances, with a payload, or deliver an air force, they change the game. Nuclear retaliation is too severe. The reaction has to be made up of conventional capabilities.

Terrorism is a threat like this, but a one off threat. It can work for a single attack, or series of attacks, but it won't bring this sort of sea change. It will bring greater international policing and organization, but not hyperinvestment and wholesale political reorganization, we have already seen that.

That leaves open the possibility for wars like we used to have. I don't think we want to see big powers going after it in a world wide conflict. The financial ability to keep that up is usually what sustains such things. When you are talking big powers, that can take years. Could we be lucky enough, though, for a new sort of Cold War to develop? Could we avoid the violence, and go straight to the parsing of resources according to some accepted current world political outline?

That seems to be what Russia is hoping for. I would be surprised if they invaded Ukraine. I don't think they want to try and govern all of those people. They seem to be after a political deal that stops the threat from the US, coming north from the Middle East, and allows for unhindered Russian influence in the old Soviet region.

What sort of situations do we condemn people to, if we allow regions to disappear behind whatever political structure they are ruled by? That's a steep question, I think, because many of those structures are viable, and though people in them don't live their best life, they enjoy life to a degree that some would say is victorious over the struggle. Others are not even that good. But how do we save those people, short of something like war? It becomes a catch 22.

I have to say, of all of the things that are on the burner now, Russia invading Ukraine is probably the most dangerous. Ukrainians move constantly between the West and Ukraine. It wouldn't be like when Russia entered Georgia. There would be a much clearer and stronger appeal launched toward the West, all the way from the friends of those Ukrainians to the leaders of the Western countries they frequented when they weren't at home.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Dec 2021, 09:57:13

evilgenius wrote:I have to say, of all of the things that are on the burner now, Russia invading Ukraine is probably the most dangerous. Ukrainians move constantly between the West and Ukraine. It wouldn't be like when Russia entered Georgia. There would be a much clearer and stronger appeal launched toward the West, all the way from the friends of those Ukrainians to the leaders of the Western countries they frequented when they weren't at home.

Perhaps but I view a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as more likely and more dangerous. After all the Ukrainians do not supply us with any critical resource while Taiwan is the world's major supplier of micro chips.
Worst case is a synchronized attack on both fronts to make our response options more difficult and cause panic within our leadership. A Russian-Chinese cooperation might yield significant gains for both while minimizing their individual risks of failure.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Dec 2021, 10:34:26

vtsnowedin wrote: The chain of command is what it is, but like the nuclear football I expect it has been modified to work within the allotted time between launch and strike. As to Joe he will be tossed out of bed and told what to do by his handlers.


Do you really buy into that one, the "them behind the curtain" thing with Joe? I remember Joe when he was in full control of his faculties, and today's Joe certainly ain't that Joe, but beyond the point that at least he isn't a xenophobic, misogynistic, anti-Jew Hitler admiring draft dodging narcissistic rich kid, liar and sexual predator with daddy issues, do you really believe the entire man (or woman) behind the curtain thing with Sleepy Joe?
StarvingPuutyTat says: I'm so confident in my TOTAL COLLAPSE is IMMINENT prediction that I stake my entire reputation on it. It will happen this year. - Aug 3-2020

Mustang19 says: Mods, I am just here to troll the trolls. I mean no harm.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 21 Dec 2021, 11:15:12

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: The chain of command is what it is, but like the nuclear football I expect it has been modified to work within the allotted time between launch and strike. As to Joe he will be tossed out of bed and told what to do by his handlers.


Do you really buy into that one, the "them behind the curtain" thing with Joe? I remember Joe when he was in full control of his faculties, and today's Joe certainly ain't that Joe, but beyond the point that at least he isn't a xenophobic, misogynistic, anti-Jew Hitler admiring draft dodging narcissistic rich kid, liar and sexual predator with daddy issues, do you really believe the entire man (or woman) behind the curtain thing with Sleepy Joe?

Yes I do and it has nothing to do with how 'not Trump' he is. He has clearly declined in mental ability and is certainly not in full control of things if at all. He gives it away when he says things like "They told me not to take any questions".
It is not some shadowy figure outside the white house that makes the decisions just the white house staff and perhaps Jill Biden telling him what to say and when to say it.
I am not into conspiracy theories but his lack of ability is clear from his every public appearance and utterance so one must go to the simplest conclusion that those around him are doing the thinking.
I might add that those around him are not doing very well at it.
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