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Bold Predictions 2022

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sat 29 Jan 2022, 14:59:08

Seems like Americans have heard that one before.


Well, yes. And that's neither here nor there. How many times a warning has been heard before, or who is giving the warning, is irrelevant to the question of whether the warning is valid or not.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 29 Jan 2022, 15:50:43

Doly wrote:
Seems like Americans have heard that one before.


Well, yes. And that's neither here nor there.


Historical precedent certainly offers clues...both to the value of the idea as it has turned out in the past and therefore might need taken account of in the present, or future.

Doly wrote:How many times a warning has been heard before, or who is giving the warning, is irrelevant to the question of whether the warning is valid or not.


In terms of peak oil, we've been hearing warnings since at least 1886, if we skip the warnings on rock oil running out before that. If we include religions, such warnings go back millennia, if climate change, earth Day 1970 was a good day for the warnings of what was coming, including the Great Dieoff by the end of the 1980's. I was around for the energy crisis of the 1970's in the States, and the gold buggery that happening during times of high inflation and rationed fuels. The very art of claiming "bad things...oohhh....they be a cummin'!" has its own word.... Apocalypticism.

You use words to imply credibility to warnings in general, disguising the probability for any given warning being correct, because "doesn't matter how many times it has been made before or by who".

You are absolutely incorrect in this regard. And effectively are arguing that the broken clock routine is a perfectly valid method of forecasting into the future. Nonsense.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby gollum » Sun 30 Jan 2022, 02:15:58

While Russia and China are both authoritarian regimes that I wouldn’t want to live under both seem better placed than the US to control and compete for resources going forward. Neither is as politically divided or as debt ridden as the US is and neither is showing the diplomatic and military incompetence we’ve been exhibiting the past twenty years. We are actually to the point where things are so bad that even PBS ran a story last week speculating about the possibility of a second civil war here. That’s something that screams things are not good.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 30 Jan 2022, 09:57:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
evilgenius wrote:By the end of summer, the employment situation may have turned around.

At my work, people are starting to quit because UPS wants to cut everybody's pay. They offer a bonus to make up the difference to the old pay, but they won't make any guarantees about how long it will last, or whether the terms will change capriciously. My guess is their economist(s) have told them they don't need to actually change the pay rate. The people who are quitting, they must be saying, will be coming back soon.

I know that's not the whole story. It must be part of it. I wonder what corporate expectations are?


This sounds more like rumor than fact the way it is stated. Is UPS actaully cutting "everyone's" pay, or is there talk among employees that "UPS wants to cut everyone's pay"?

When you say UPS is cutting pay, do you mean they're cutting salaries in the face of the inflation (which is obviously very bad), or they're ending Covid support, Covid danger bonuses, etc, which cuts net pay for people on the front line?

Not saying the second thing is "OK" until Covid is officially endemic (or functionally endemic for months), but the second thing is quite different in substance from the first thing.

A quick look, and I'm not finding a recent source re Google for "UPS cutting pay" that's more credible than a reddit discussion.

The discussion seemed to center around the contractual $15 an hour rate, vs. the seasonal bonus rate of $21. If UPS does seasonal hiring for the Christmas season and NOTIFIES people that's what it is (a seasonal bonus), then people getting mad at UPS when that pay is cut back to the NORMAL level is ridiculous, IMO.

If people don't want to do the hard physical work of sorting (often heavy, and at a fast rate all day on their feet) packages for $15 an hour, I understand that. If people expect holiday bonus rates to become permanent, that's unrealistic.

Anecdotal and emotional. That's for sure. What you are talking about, of course, is what people do when offered a chance to stand up for themselves? They can change jobs, or agitate for change where they are. It depends upon a lot of things. It doesn't always pay to be idealistic. But to give up on idealism at the very beginning? I am surprised at you.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 30 Jan 2022, 14:52:18

gollum wrote:While Russia and China are both authoritarian regimes that I wouldn’t want to live under both seem better placed than the US to control and compete for resources going forward. Neither is as politically divided or as debt ridden as the US is and neither is showing the diplomatic and military incompetence we’ve been exhibiting the past twenty years. We are actually to the point where things are so bad that even PBS ran a story last week speculating about the possibility of a second civil war here. That’s something that screams things are not good.


I totally agree! I just see the evolution of a multi polar world. The USA will most likely retain an area of dominance. I expect the process to be slow, but with interspersed crises.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 31 Jan 2022, 21:44:56

JuanP wrote:I totally agree! I just see the evolution of a multi polar world. The USA will most likely retain an area of dominance. I expect the process to be slow, but with interspersed crises.

Not sure about your "multi polar world" But I do think the USA will remain dominant based on it's resource base and military capability.
Instead of slow I expect the current administrations failures to create a backlash that will allow future administrations to move swiftly to meet and defeat any crisis that comes up.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 31 Jan 2022, 21:51:52

gollum wrote:While Russia and China are both authoritarian regimes that I wouldn’t want to live under both seem better placed than the US to control and compete for resources going forward. Neither is as politically divided or as debt ridden as the US is and neither is showing the diplomatic and military incompetence we’ve been exhibiting the past twenty years. We are actually to the point where things are so bad that even PBS ran a story last week speculating about the possibility of a second civil war here. That’s something that screams things are not good.

I expect this next civil war to be fought and won at the ballot box during the 2022 and 2024 elections.
The only shots that need to be ,or will be ,fired will be political broadsides from one media side against the other.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 31 Jan 2022, 23:40:33

gollum wrote:We are actually to the point where things are so bad that even PBS ran a story last week speculating about the possibility of a second civil war here. That’s something that screams things are not good.


Actually its a sign that PBS is not good.

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PBS Pandas on parade!!!

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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby suxs » Mon 07 Feb 2022, 20:45:58

Define Word Salad by example:
Instead of slow I expect the current administrations failures to create a backlash that will allow future administrations to move swiftly to meet and defeat any crisis that comes up.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 07 Feb 2022, 20:49:16

suxs wrote:Define Word Salad by example:
Instead of slow I expect the current administrations failures to create a backlash that will allow future administrations to move swiftly to meet and defeat any crisis that comes up.

And how would you have written that more succinctly?
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 20 Feb 2022, 12:57:31

I hope that tensions with China ease a bit by the end of the year. Higher interest rates in the US should make the Yuan cheaper. It should be good for Chinese exporters. The Chinese just need to keep the wheels from coming off of their economy before then.

I always wonder with China what the catalyst will be. Because you know at some point there is going to be a revolution over there. Everybody in power over there knows it. When they finally find someone who is good enough, and willing enough, to merge the present with the future, like Gorbachev, it will happen. That's when the sleeping giant will truly have awoken.

That's when they ditch five year plans, and savior ideology, for the power of the markets. It looks like it can happen economically in China, like how it happened in England, when there is critical mass enough behind the voices that need the markets.

It spreads with some sort of idea of whom the suffrage includes. Depending upon the people's economic horizons, suicide nets anyone, that can mean different things. I think the communist party in China has probably almost completely lost touch with what it is like to be an average Chinese. I think the gap is big enough that without their Gorbachev it could almost be Marie Antoinette for them. Sadly, that fear for their lives just keeps them from seeing how they can help the people.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sun 20 Feb 2022, 13:23:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 20 Feb 2022, 13:06:36

evilgenius wrote:I hope that tensions with China ease a bit by the end of the year. Higher interest rates in the US should make the Yuan cheaper. It should be good for Chinese exporters. The Chinese just need to keep the wheels from coming off of their economy before then.

I always wonder with China what the catalyst will be. Because you know at some point there is going to be a revolution over there. Everybody in power over there knows it. When they finally find someone who is good enough, and willing enough, to merge the present with the future, like Gorbachev, it will happen. That's when the sleeping giant will truly have awoken.

I fear that tensions with China will get worse, not better, for several years going forward. Emboldened by the weakness of the current US administration they very well might move to invade Taiwan which I think will come at great cost to them both militarily and economically.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 20 Feb 2022, 13:29:23

vtsnowedin wrote:
evilgenius wrote:I hope that tensions with China ease a bit by the end of the year. Higher interest rates in the US should make the Yuan cheaper. It should be good for Chinese exporters. The Chinese just need to keep the wheels from coming off of their economy before then.

I always wonder with China what the catalyst will be. Because you know at some point there is going to be a revolution over there. Everybody in power over there knows it. When they finally find someone who is good enough, and willing enough, to merge the present with the future, like Gorbachev, it will happen. That's when the sleeping giant will truly have awoken.

I fear that tensions with China will get worse, not better, for several years going forward. Emboldened by the weakness of the current US administration they very well might move to invade Taiwan which I think will come at great cost to them both militarily and economically.

Or things could look pretty good in China, once they start making money again. It will be good for it not to be true that ginning up national emergencies to make work and keep the status of the government supreme in the people's eyes was a good policy idea. Because that's a bad road to start down. It has its own gravity. It can be like a black hole for governments at some point. They get stuck where they can't liberalize because of social tensions and appealing to groups within their own power structure, but liberalizing is what will save the country.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 20 Feb 2022, 15:07:03

evilgenius wrote:Or things could look pretty good in China, once they start making money again. It will be good for it not to be true that ginning up national emergencies to make work and keep the status of the government supreme in the people's eyes was a good policy idea. Because that's a bad road to start down. It has its own gravity. It can be like a black hole for governments at some point. They get stuck where they can't liberalize because of social tensions and appealing to groups within their own power structure, but liberalizing is what will save the country.

As always only time will tell.
In a community of nations a nation treats its good neighbors much better then it treats bad ones. I think China, Russia,, North Korea and Iran and a few others would all be much better off being good neighbors then using their present tactics.
If they took the money they spend on their armed forces and spent it on building up their economies and infrastructures they could move forward much faster then they ever will trying to dominate their neighbors.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Revi » Tue 22 Feb 2022, 06:11:36

Russia invades Ukraine, which leads to higher energy prices. Stock market doesn't like that. Europe is not happy.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 22 Feb 2022, 20:16:16

Yes, well the US is certainly well down that road already. I find it hard to believe what goes on over there? Cities trashed every time a black guy is shot by a police officer; tens of thousands living homeless in the nations major cities, debts that would make the heads of the Weimar Republic blink, and a social security system second only to Liberia. One day the crunch will come and the SS pensions will be shown for what they are, just another liability on the debt ledger. Tens of millions malnourished like in Russia after the fall of the communist system.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 05 Mar 2022, 10:57:44

Everything has always been a liability on the debt meter. That's how economies work.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Doly » Sat 05 Mar 2022, 18:36:26

In a community of nations a nation treats its good neighbors much better then it treats bad ones. I think China, Russia,, North Korea and Iran and a few others would all be much better off being good neighbors then using their present tactics.
If they took the money they spend on their armed forces and spent it on building up their economies and infrastructures they could move forward much faster then they ever will trying to dominate their neighbors.


And what if we are nearing peak oil for real this time? Then it would explain a lot the behavior of China, Russia and Iran. What if we are seeing the final grab for power over the last remaining energy resources?
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 05 Mar 2022, 18:46:16

Doly wrote:
In a community of nations a nation treats its good neighbors much better then it treats bad ones. I think China, Russia,, North Korea and Iran and a few others would all be much better off being good neighbors then using their present tactics.
If they took the money they spend on their armed forces and spent it on building up their economies and infrastructures they could move forward much faster then they ever will trying to dominate their neighbors.


And what if we are nearing peak oil for real this time? Then it would explain a lot the behavior of China, Russia and Iran. What if we are seeing the final grab for power over the last remaining energy resources?


Then government leaders in China, Russia and Iran are listening to folks who don't know much about the geosciences. If you modified your sentence to "we are seeing the final grab for power over the last remaining energy resources for price XX" you would be on far firmly ground. Because that is certainly a quite reasonable statement. Outright peak via scarcity is not. This half of the century anyway, and with an explicit assumption of demand levels.
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Re: Bold Predictions 2022

Unread postby Pops » Sun 06 Mar 2022, 11:39:33

Doly wrote:And what if we are nearing peak oil for real this time? Then it would explain a lot the behavior of China, Russia and Iran. What if we are seeing the final grab for power over the last remaining energy resources?

RU energy ministry said as much last year, they peaked in 2019. They would recover from the covid slump but never get back to 2019. Take it with a grain of salt but realize the notion is in the air. EIA has called peak a couple of times.

The nations mentioned RU, NK, Iran, and recently and perhaps again the US, are run by narcissists interested primarily in themselves, their power, perhaps the inscription below their triumphal monuments. Not sure why their cultists indulge them but they do.

I expect more like the above. Diminishing returns to complexity and trickling up of profit require a scapegoat, any will do really. Maybe that is what putins "Ukrainian Nazis" are meant to be. Give the hoards an enemy, any enemy, on which to focus their rage and frustration.
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