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Bitcoin & crypto?

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 20 Dec 2017, 12:48:42

I just looked it up. The daily amount transacted in currency exchange is over 5 trillion. That means that Bitcoin could rise in value to about 20 times the level it is now. Well, not exactly 20 times because some of that is banks directly interacting with each other. It could expand to whatever portion of that is handled through derivatives. That's to cover the per day needs. There must be all kinds of instruments it could replace that don't transact with such liquidity.

I think sometimes derivatives are just a bet, and other times they are things like CDO's. You can see the attraction of Bitcoin against the betting. Given what happened with CDO's, and how they can be a more or less complete fabrication too, again Bitcoin gains credence. It is troubling, though, to consider an exchange scheme that doesn't rely upon the value of the currencies being transacted in some way, as CDO's do. There is power in that to emasculate governments, much the same way that the reserve status of the dollar gives the US that power over weaker governments today. I wonder in whose hands that power would eventually reside?
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 20 Dec 2017, 13:18:38

BBC: Bitcoin Cash Deals Frozen as Insider Trading is Probed

One of the US's leading crypto-currency exchanges is carrying out an insider trading investigation. Coinbase fears its own workers may have exploited its move into Bitcoin Cash - a spin-off of the original Bitcoin. The San Francisco-based firm announced the move after Bitcoin Cash's price jumped.

Coinbase began letting its users buy, sell, send and receive Bitcoin Cash on Tuesday in a surprise decision but has temporarily suspended trade.

The company's chief executive intervened after several market watchers posted allegations of illegal activity on social media sites.

Brian Armstrong responded that he had repeatedly warned his staff not to disclose its launch plans to family or friends or to trade in the digital asset themselves.

Bitcoin Cash - which is no more tangible than Bitcoin itself - came into being in August after several developers became frustrated at lengthening transaction times for the original crypto-currency.

Bitcoin Cash addressed this problem by tweaking the underlying technology - the blockchain - to allow bigger chunks of data to be processed at a time.

Although there have been other Bitcoin splits before, this "fork" was unusual in that everyone who owned the original virtual currency was offered a matching sum of Bitcoin Cash.
... This effectively created money out of nothing.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 20 Dec 2017, 17:23:11

I cashed in enough bitcoin yesterday to give me a five times return on my total Crypto investment to date. It reduced my total Crypto stash by about 25%. 8)

Then, later in the day, Coinbase finally gave me my bitcoincash they had been holding since 1 August.

Overall a good day.

I can tell by most of your comments, most of you have not yet studied either crypto currencies or block chain technology.

Not to worry, hashgraph, will soon replace most of the block chains. Unfortunately, hashgraph is patented, so I'm trying to figure out how to play it.

Peace.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:34:32

Run for the exits?!

Bitcoin lost a third of its value in 24 hours

Has the bitcoin fever broken?

Bitcoin prices plunged sharply to below $11,000 on Friday, shedding a third of its value in just 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk.com. It later rebounded slightly to around $12,000 -- but that's still a stunning 25% less valuable than bitcoin was Thursday morning.

Prices had approached $20,000 as recently as Sunday.

The price drop comes on the back of a few days of bad news for bitcoin, which has still soared by more than 1,000% since the start of the year. ....
......
But some argue bitcoin is just taking a breather -- albeit a big one -- after a furious 2017.

"A correction like we are witnessing today is hardly surprising," said Dave Chapman, managing director of Hong Kong cryptocurrency trading platform Octagon Strategy.

Amid the turbulence Friday, one of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges, Coinbase, said buys and sells might be "temporarily offline" due to high traffic.

The plunge threatens to take the shine off what's been an incredible year for bitcoin. This time last year the virtual currency was worth less than $1,000. ...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/22/investi ... index.html
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 13:45:28

Wow the bubble has burst as some of us anticipated. I hope Carinke didn't lose too much
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 15:13:53

onlooker wrote:Wow the bubble has burst as some of us anticipated. I hope Carinke didn't lose too much

Who can say? Deep correction or the end of the bubble?

The main thing I still don't understand is why all the hype/buying of Bitcoin specifically. In recent times, the cost to mine, the problems with a slow and expensive and unwieldy process to actually USE it as a currency, and the underlying volatility and how that hampers using it as a currency sure seem like huge strikes against it specifically ever being "THE" cryptocurrency or even one of a select set -- for every day use.

If in doubt, this was the impetus for the Bitcoin cash fork, and some of the alternate cryptocurrencies.

Of course, the speculation touches everything (except IBM, apparently) with the term "blockchain" attached to it (i.e. extremely wild/irrational stock behavior), so the whole thing is really strange.

If this correction gets ugly enough (assuming it's not "the end of the bubble", hopefully that will at least wake a lot of naive people up to the fact that it's not just "throw money at crypto, wait a few weeks or months, and make a pile of money.

I still think the concept of a blockchain or similar public ledger technology WILL be a big or even huge thing in business over time. But that could leave Bitcoin trading near zero when it happens.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 15:17:21

Well unless Federal Reserve Notes crashed, I'm fine. I took some profit yesterday. I am looking at buying some more soon. This is like ground hog day all over again. No reason for panic.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 15:23:52

careinke wrote:Well unless Federal Reserve Notes crashed, I'm fine. I took some profit yesterday. I am looking at buying some more soon. This is like ground hog day all over again. No reason for panic.

Whatever your outlook, panicking is definitely not the MO for successful investing. In fact, there are a lot of investors who make good money making intelligent hedged bets against panic, when it ensues in various markets.

I respect your fortitude, whatever may unfold with Bitcoin.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 15:25:13

careinke wrote:Well unless Federal Reserve Notes crashed, I'm fine. I took some profit yesterday. I am looking at buying some more soon. This is like ground hog day all over again. No reason for panic.


Unlike stocks, there is no restriction on how quickly you can flip them I suppose. One reason for Bitcoin's volatility perhaps.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 15:51:57

Great article about everything related with Bitcoin. As for Outcasts inquiry, perhaps people stayed with BC, because it was the FIRST big and familiar cryptocurrency
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/ ... ull-story/
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 16:15:02

onlooker wrote:Great article about everything related with Bitcoin. As for Outcasts inquiry, perhaps people stayed with BC, because it was the FIRST big and familiar cryptocurrency
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/ ... ull-story/

Yes, that reason is blindingly obvious, though I omitted that point from my comment, to not waste readers' time. It is the oft-cited first-mover advantage, which has often worked with big technology changes in the past.

I guess I'm just baffled how, in the modern internet age, with lots of very useful information at peoples' fingertips, that the pattern of the trading, assumptions, etc. seems to imply that so many people are trading on a 'Bitcoin is going up" level of analysis, that it dominates the market even when there are blindingly obvious issues. This would be more understandable to me over a short timeframe like a day or two, than continuing for weeks and months, even as the problems become much more apparent (to even a total crypto novice like me, via a little casual reading).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 20:48:45

Looks like a lot of cash out happened a couple hours ago, volatility is absolutely crazy- dropped nearly $3k in an hour before bouncing back.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 22:35:41

not to be a negative Nellie but it seems to me the main reason for having a bitcoin or other similar currency so far has been for illegal activity to a happen out in ether space. At some point, you have to wonder if you are a holder of large bitcoin currency/stock/whatever the hell it is what will happen if all of the policing factions in the world decide that it is time to go after the illegal online trade that is favored by this particular currency. First off, the minute they announced something like that you would not be able to sell your bitcoins/or other similar currency fast enough, it would crater within an hour. Secondly, you have to wonder if by funding bitcoins that are used for illegal activity if you aren't in some way at risk for the normal laws against funding illegal activities. It would not matter that you are only seeking to make money off of a stock trade...by investing you have facilitated the illegal trade. Could be a lot of fun for prosecutors in the future. And the main reason I have never gone anywhere near this. Better safe than sorry.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 23:03:22

Not really Rockdoc from my linked article

This leads into one of the spurious claims on Bitcoin: that it’s a refuge for drug smugglers and illegal activities. I assure you mathematically, that is not true. According to the U.N. the world drug trade is $435B, 4 times the total, and strictly theoretical value of Bitcoin, coins locked, lost, and all. Besides if you owned $160B coins, who would you transfer them to? You’re the only user. $435B/year can only be trafficked by major banks like as HSBC, who have paid public fines because money flows that large can’t be hidden. This is so well-known the U.N. suggested the drug-money flows may be one reason global banks were solvent in ‘08. Even $160B misrepresents Bitcoin because it had a 10-fold increase this year alone. So imagine $16B total market cap. That’s half the size of the yearly budget of Los Angeles, one city. Even that overstates it, because through most of its life it’s been around $250, so imagine a $4B market cap, the budget of West Virginia.

So you’re a drug dealer in illicit trades and you sell to your customers because all your buyers have Bitcoin accounts? Your pushers have street terminals? This doesn’t make sense. And remember as much as the price of Bitcoin has risen 40-fold, the number of participants has too. Even now, even with Coinbase, even with Dell and Overstock, even with BTC $10,000 almost no one has Bitcoin, even in N.Y.C. or S.F.. So who are these supposed illegal people with illegal activities that couldn’t fit any significant value?
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 23:07:34

rockdoc123 wrote:not to be a negative Nellie but it seems to me the main reason for having a bitcoin or other similar currency so far has been for illegal activity to a happen out in ether space. At some point, you have to wonder if you are a holder of large bitcoin currency/stock/whatever the hell it is what will happen if all of the policing factions in the world decide that it is time to go after the illegal online trade that is favored by this particular currency. First off, the minute they announced something like that you would not be able to sell your bitcoins/or other similar currency fast enough, it would crater within an hour. Secondly, you have to wonder if by funding bitcoins that are used for illegal activity if you aren't in some way at risk for the normal laws against funding illegal activities. It would not matter that you are only seeking to make money off of a stock trade...by investing you have facilitated the illegal trade. Could be a lot of fun for prosecutors in the future. And the main reason I have never gone anywhere near this. Better safe than sorry.


Maybe we should use this same logic on Fedral Reserve Notes. I am positive there is at least an order of magnitude more criminal activity conducted using FRNs than all the cyrptocurrencies combined. As a matter of fact, it seems to me, by using FRNs you are promoting criminal activity.

I myself would prefer to use Distibuted Ledger Technology based on trustless systems (Cryptocurrencies). There is a lot less chance of fraud.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 23:23:22

I am positive there is at least an order of magnitude more criminal activity conducted using FRNs than all the cyrptocurrencies combined
------
Some would argue that the whole modern Banking system borders on the criminal. From its high usury interest rates to fiat money creation to fractional reserve banking and compound interest .
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 23:46:58

SeaGypsy wrote:Looks like a lot of cash out happened a couple hours ago, volatility is absolutely crazy- dropped nearly $3k in an hour before bouncing back.


Welcome to crypto markets, where a years worth of volatility happen every week. I was hoping this crash would continue for another couple of days, but it looks to be on the way back, missed some good buying ops.

Here is a nice link to follow the various real-time crypto prices, total crypto market cap, and lots of good links for each crypto.
https://coinmarketcap.com/

Prior to this "Crash" the highest Market Cap was 645 Billion (Yesterday), and dropped all the way down to 422 Billion (today). Sounds awful until you realize the first time the market cap was ever at 422 Billion was waaayyyy back on December 8th of this year. :lol: As I type this, the market cap is now at 552 billion.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby Cog » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 07:09:29

Like any other volatile investment, make sure you know how the exchanges work before getting in over your head with crypto-currencies. I'm going to be happy to stay away from this one.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 11:52:49

Not really Rockdoc from my linked article


There are obviously other opinions on this.

[url]https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/10/bitcoin-value-surge-sign-of-criminal-activity/
[/url]
The value of the shadowy digital currency known as bitcoin has jumped to record highs this month, sending shock waves through America’s defense and intelligence agencies, which fear its growth signals a surge in use by terrorists, drug kingpins, white-collar criminals and Russian cybercriminals who don’t want to be tracked by the world’s governments.
This summer, the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), the Department of Justice and scores of European illicit finance law enforcement officials have fought back with a wave of operations against Russian cybercriminals. Late last month, they shuttered AlphaBay and Hansa — two of the biggest “dark web” contraband marketplaces rife with the illegal sale of guns, drugs and other forbidden merchandise.
In an even more startling sign of the battle raging around bitcoin, a FinCEN-led international illicit financing task force arrested a Russian “mastermind of organized crime” on a small beachside village in northern Greece less than two weeks ago.
Alexander Vinnik, who is accused of laundering more than $4 billion worth of illegal funds using bitcoin accounts, operated BTC-e, one of the world’s oldest bitcoin exchanges.
U.S. authorities accuse Mr. Vinnik of facilitating crimes including drug trafficking, public corruption, hacking, fraud, identity theft and tax refund fraud


Elsewhere others suggest the use of bitcoin by criminals has dropped considerably this past year in favor of other digital currencies which afford more privacy. Apparently, law enforcement has figured out how to trace bitcoin activities. Even so, my understanding is it is estimated that criminal activity in bitcoin trade still makes up 20% although just last year it was noted to be 50%.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby davep » Mon 25 Dec 2017, 09:45:38

Bitcoin is a fully transparent ledger. You'd be daft to use it for illegal activities. It's true that other cryptocurrencies afford more privacy though. There's an interesting one being developed by Moxie Marlinspoke (who brought us the Signal double ratchet p2p protocol) that looks promising. Also, Matthew Green (a great cryptographer) has been involved in an interesting zero-knowledge proof one. The mathematics behind it is bonkers hard.
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