[Plantagenet]

... I am trying to invest in bitcoin..... I'm more of a gambler and so far I like it. Some of my friends... choose to gamble online. I tried that too , not bad, but not as reliable.

Good post, Gabriele

I think you've identified an important aspect of cryptocurrencies.

I think for people who understand Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies ---- like Careinke for instance ------ buying Bitcoin etc. is an investment.

But for me and for people like me who don't really understand what is going on with cryptocurrencies buying a cryptocurrency seems very similar to gambling.


I gots my money down on the doggy-coin!

Cheers!

[Armageddon]

... I am trying to invest in bitcoin..... I'm more of a gambler and so far I like it. Some of my friends... choose to gamble online. I tried that too , not bad, but not as reliable.

Good post, Gabriele

I think you've identified an important aspect of cryptocurrencies.

I think for people who understand Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies ---- like Careinke for instance ------ buying Bitcoin etc. is an investment.

But for me and for people like me who don't really understand what is going on with cryptocurrencies buying a cryptocurrency seems very similar to gambling.


I gots my money down on the doggy-coin!

Cheers!

It’s definitely gambling. I’m looking for ones that are pretty early and have communities already established and buying in before the masses pump it. These things seem to pump, then dump. You have to know when to dump. But man, they can go up like 100x easily in days.

[vtsnowedin]

I look at all the crypto currencies as pure gambling and as far away from an' investment' as possible with the possible exception of buying large blocks of lottery tickets.
An investment should be made in a venture where real value exists and the potential for growth and future profits can be reasonably calculated and the risk factors known.
There are lots of good investment opportunities in corporate America along with a few stinkers that are being over hyped as usual.
But if you have money to burn and want to place a bet on the crypto of your choosing go right ahead, but I would not put my child's college fund into any of them.

[careinke]

... I am trying to invest in bitcoin..... I'm more of a gambler and so far I like it. Some of my friends... choose to gamble online. I tried that too , not bad, but not as reliable.

Good post, Gabriele

I think you've identified an important aspect of cryptocurrencies.

I think for people who understand Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies ---- like Careinke for instance ------ buying Bitcoin etc. is an investment.

But for me and for people like me who don't really understand what is going on with cryptocurrencies buying a cryptocurrency seems very similar to gambling.


I gots my money down on the doggy-coin!

Cheers!

Thanks for the compliment Plant. I've spent well over 10,000 hrs. exploring/researching cryptocurrencies. Maybe I need an "Expert" handle. LOL

A lot of gamblers, professional or otherwise, have crossed into WEB 3. They usually start with meme coins like Doge or Shib. The odds are better, and as long as you don't sell, you never lose everything. Of course betting on margin, you are probably certain to lose everything. But hey, each to his own.

As a side note, one of the biggest YouTube characters, Bit Boy, is currently playing in the world poker championships. He is like 15th place out of 670 players, (the tournament started with around 6,500 players). He says he will give away his winnings to his viewers.

The crypto verse likes gamblers to come into WEB3. Once you are in they end up learning more about crypto and start supporting it. This is why play to earn, and on line gambling will be huge in WEB 3.

Yes I invest in crypto currencies, and will continue to do so because it is the only thing out there beating the "real" inflation rate by the largest margin over the past decade, no mater what your definition of "real" is.

Crypto is being adopted faster than any other major technology including WEB1 (Think Modems), and WEB2 (what we have today). Remember the early battles for WEB2? Prodigy, Yahoo, Microsoft, Amazon, You tube, etc all battling it out, the crash in 2000, etc, etc. You ain't seen nothing yet. Lots of opportunities.

I'm also into crypto for moral reasons. I think separating money from the state, is just as important as separating religion from the state. Crypto has a very good chance of doing this, so I support it. In addition with smart contracts, immediate transparency, decentralized control, makes for an immutable safe currencies tailored to different markets. WEB3 will tie them all together.

No matter who wins the upcoming economic, AI, data protection, freedom of speech, privacy, etc, battles. I plan to have a front row seat.

PEACE

[Armageddon]

I doubled my money in Shib. Then I put in 10k in Saitama, and once it dumped last night, I traded all my Shib for it. I now have 300 billion Saitama’s. I think it explode once they announce the new Saitamask in 2 weeks. Plus, a few big exchanges are supposed to start carrying it.

[theluckycountry]

They usually start with meme coins like Doge or Shib. The odds are better, and as long as you don't sell, you never lose everything.

PEACE

Yes, I still have my pets.com shares, and by not selling, have never lost a cent.

[Shmidt03]

hello everyone

[vtsnowedin]

hello everyone

Hello!!
We could use some new people here so welcome.
What is on your mind?

[Doly]

To those of you that hold crypto (not just use it temporarily for transactions): what gives you confidence that a cryptocurrency will last for the long run? I've seen people saying that bitcoin is suitable as generational wealth, but surely, that depends on the assumption that bitcoin infrastructure will still be there for the long run, and how can you feel sure of that? Even more so with other newer cryptocurrencies.

[Outcast_Searcher]

To those of you that hold crypto (not just use it temporarily for transactions): what gives you confidence that a cryptocurrency will last for the long run? I've seen people saying that bitcoin is suitable as generational wealth, but surely, that depends on the assumption that bitcoin infrastructure will still be there for the long run, and how can you feel sure of that? Even more so with other newer cryptocurrencies.

You have the same sort of questions I do.

Which is why for long term inflation hedging, I still strongly prefer gold, silver, and crude oil (through crude oil stock majors paying good dividends).

To me, it's all wildly speculative. Especially that BTC, with all its problems including speed and energy usage, will automatically be the chosen crypto-currency, in the face of all the competition (like government issued stablecoins, Etherium and others), just because it was first and has the largest market cap / network exposure, currently. Oh, and completely ignoring the issue of regulation, as though China didn't exist.

I actually prefer to use mining plays like RIOT blockchain, etc. for my BTC / Etherium exposure, as I can sell stock options for pretty HUGE premiums on them, getting some advantage over the buy and hold of regular BTC or GBTC, etc.

We're in December now. Somehow, I don't see the frequent earlier predictions of $100K, $250K or $300K, or even $500K by year-end as being at all likely.

The quality of the overall crypto pumping community on Youtube et al is telling, IMO. It reminds me very much of the usual suspects pumping the meme stocks like AMC in a VERY flagrant manner.

Disclosure: I freely admit I could be VERY wrong, but over time, I'm MUCH more comfortable accumulating stocks in growing, dividend paying, tangible businesses with real assets, real sales, real book values, real cash flows, and a history (re stocks in general) of growing roughly in line with the global economy, on average) than with the pumped hopes and dreams "modern" investing methodology that bulls feel great about if they have recent gains to point to.

I did end up owning about 1 BTC through GBTC, and sold 60% of that for a decent profit, as BTC zoomed over $50K and to as much as roughly $66K. I'd like to own more, but at prices more like $10K to $12K (which were seen as recently as 2020 for quite a few months).

So I'm "playing" with about 1% of my portfolio, re crypto exposure. If the prices get to be more like $10K for BTC, I'll likely be playing with more like 3%, as long as the drop wasn't due to them becoming illegal -- I want no part of criminal court as the defendant.

(I know that such a strategy makes me a chicken. Fine. Millennials with NO concept of risk management will have to learn about risk the hard way, IMO.)

For the bulls, I am also much more comfortable with structural bulls making forecasts on investment time frames (say like Cathy Wood (say for 5 or more years out) and economic principles, than the usual Youtube pumpers claiming they know what will happen "real soon now" and constantly MASSIVELY hyping the crypto(s) of their choice. (We used to know to be wary of used car salesman 40ish years ago -- these days, not so much, apparently).

[careinke]

To those of you that hold crypto (not just use it temporarily for transactions): what gives you confidence that a cryptocurrency will last for the long run? I've seen people saying that bitcoin is suitable as generational wealth, but surely, that depends on the assumption that bitcoin infrastructure will still be there for the long run, and how can you feel sure of that? Even more so with other newer cryptocurrencies.

Hi Doly,

The short answer to your question is, "Math." Bitcoin is a trustless, decentralized, completely secure, fungible, deflationary form of money. It has been adopted by individuals, small companies, large companies, cities, states, and countries for various uses. Big Banks are scrambling to get on board. I think it will be around for awhile.

I have more to say, unfortunately I got a new Galaxy ZFold3 yesterday and the transfer undid some things. CAUTION: IF YOU USE GOOGLE 2FA FOR YOUR EXCHANGE ACCOUNTS, IT'S NOT AUTOMATIC, NOR EASY TO FIX! I speak from experience....So I'm a little busy right now.

Too bad, I'd love to join the conversation between you and OS. OS is probably the most informed on this subject, (Except Me), he just hasn't seen the light yet.

Peace and welcome to WEB 3.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I look at all the crypto currencies as pure gambling and as far away from an' investment' as possible with the possible exception of buying large blocks of lottery tickets.
An investment should be made in a venture where real value exists and the potential for growth and future profits can be reasonably calculated and the risk factors known.
There are lots of good investment opportunities in corporate America along with a few stinkers that are being over hyped as usual.
But if you have money to burn and want to place a bet on the crypto of your choosing go right ahead, but I would not put my child's college fund into any of them.

Bingo, re the lack of risk management by so many super-enthused young folks.

MAYBE Crypto will end up being a huge thing. MAYBE the wise and rich older folks like Berkshire Hathaway's Buffett and Munger are dead wrong and they won't go to (near) zero once the hype plays out, like generally happens with manias. MAYBE governments won't make them illegal to hold and mine, because they can manage to consistently tax them successfully (if they can't tax them or track them well enough to do so, I think that's what will bring the hammer down. Big governments are NOT going to stand by and be bankrupted by a crypto they can't tax -- not without a very nasty fight, since governments must be able to tax to exist.)

So I have no trouble with folks saying they've "done a lot of research" and are investing in BTC, Etherium, et al for the "long term". Where I get concerned about sanity and sustainability is that so many folks claim to be all-in, and stating with absolute certainly that such crypto-currencies will grow to the sky real soon now. (Maybe watching too many pumpers on Youtube gives them too much FOMO too deal with).

So just like with stocks or land or gold or any other type of investment, at least doing some thoughtful DIVERSIFICATION would seem far more realistic, re a long term strategy that's sustainable -- IMO.

But maybe the world really has changed. A guy named Patrick Boyle who is a very smart hedge fund / finance guy does a bunch of great Youtube videos on finance. He manages to make the subject interesting and hilarious with his very dry and sarcastic humor/commentary.

He just put a piece on Youtube on "modern investing" and how the world has changed", and it's EPIC. It's called "My investment plan for 2020!".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d5W7Gqga94

Good luck to all.

[Doly]

The short answer to your question is, "Math." Bitcoin is a trustless, decentralized, completely secure, fungible, deflationary form of money.

All of this may be true, but the requirements of bitcoin farms are quite massive, and people don't talk so much about servers for bitcoin transactions, but I understand they're also heavy users of hardware compared with standard banking hardware. Suppose that issues with electronic components continue (they have been ongoing for five years, I know because I work in the industry). You have to ask if at any point, people may give up on cryptos just because of their outsize hardware requirements.

[theluckycountry]

The simple fact anyone can invent a crypt0, market it and make a fortune, is proof to me they are a delusion. People bought into doge because they liked the "meme" and because that scammer Elon said he liked it. Since the 70 cent peak Elon has been very quiet on the subject. I imagine he pulled out most at the top, that's how the smart players do it. He even created the top in a way, by his negative comments in the media. But they all rolled over so I wont assign him all the credit. What's that latest one that boomed from 0.0000000000000002 to 0.0000000000008? I didn't even bother finishing the article lol.

[theluckycountry]

I doubled my money in Shib. Then I put in 10k in Saitama, and once it dumped last night, I traded all my Shib for it. I now have 300 billion Saitama’s. I think it explode once they announce the new Saitamask in 2 weeks. Plus, a few big exchanges are supposed to start carrying it.

Looks like you bought at the very top! Bad luck. But that's the nature of memes isn't it, viral one day, in the dust bin the next.

[Armageddon]

I doubled my money in Shib. Then I put in 10k in Saitama, and once it dumped last night, I traded all my Shib for it. I now have 300 billion Saitama’s. I think it explode once they announce the new Saitamask in 2 weeks. Plus, a few big exchanges are supposed to start carrying it.

Looks like you bought at the very top! Bad luck. But that's the nature of memes isn't it, viral one day, in the dust bin the next.

I keep buying the dips and lowering my cost average.

[Armageddon]

If you can’t handle a 20% dump, then you don’t deserve a 200% pump.

[Doly]

People bought into doge because they liked the "meme" and because that scammer Elon said he liked it.

Probably some people bought doge for those reasons. But somebody must have bought doge for rational reasons at some point. Collective irrational behaviour is usually driven by rational behaviour in some of the players.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Collective irrational behaviour is usually driven by rational behaviour in some of the players.

That assumption isn't backed up by facts.

Collective irrational behavior is generally driven by emotion and often involves chasing trends due to FOMO (fear of missing out).

Whether it's in markets (like the stock market and crypto-currency), keeping up with the Joneses (to the point of self-immolation, financially -- a popular pastime in the US), arbitrary (and often irrational, re the cost/benefit ratio) fashion trends or latest gadget trends, where's the evidence for the "rational bahaviour [sic]" causing that?

The book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" has plenty of data and examples.

Like tulip bulbs, if you can't demonstrate (with facts) that Dogecoin or Shiba Inu (frantic) chasing is rational, just assuming it's so doesn't get it done.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I doubled my money in Shib. Then I put in 10k in Saitama, and once it dumped last night, I traded all my Shib for it. I now have 300 billion Saitama’s. I think it explode once they announce the new Saitamask in 2 weeks. Plus, a few big exchanges are supposed to start carrying it.

Looks like you bought at the very top! Bad luck. But that's the nature of memes isn't it, viral one day, in the dust bin the next.

I keep buying the dips and lowering my cost average.

Given the quality of your overall financial advice (re market predictions) on this site the past 15ish years, no doubt, you'll be a trillionaire next week.

At least a rational person would admit such trading is wild speculation in hopes they get lucky. Why not just buy lottery tickets or do casino gambling? Oh right, you have to tell yourself you're "investing", and so that makes it "wise".

Sure.

...

Meanwhile, LOTS of newbie investors are still chasing the AMC meme, "HODL"ing away.

And when that company predictably goes bust in a couple-fewish years, they'll have even more conspiracy theories to blame their losses on, vs. admitting they were greedy or enjoyed gambling.

And if people with 5th grade math skills point out in the comments of such Youtube pumping videos that the oft-claimed target short price the AMC Youtube pumpers of $100,000 a share like to tout would make AMC's value (market capitalization) more than that of ALL the US stock markets as of 9/30/21, the newbie AMC "investors" generally respond that they're part of a hedge fund conspiracy, etc.

Yeah, no self-delusion there.