[stu]

Azerbaijan: Government In Control As Opposition Falls Behind

As more Azerbaijani government officials are reported as being dismissed from office, political observers agree that recent political events in Baku and beyond have dealt a severe blow to the opposition. They cite as evidence yesterday's opposition rally, which failed to attract large crowds of supporters and was easily dispersed by police. With just two weeks left before the 6 November parliamentary elections, it seems that President Ilham Aliyev is now ahead of the game.

[stu]

A CHANGE IN POLICE TACTICS – AND IN TURNOUT – FOR BAKU PROTESTS

International criticism appears to have prompted authorities in Azerbaijan to moderate their tactics for handling opposition demonstrations during the run-up to the country’s parliamentary election.

For the fourth time in a month, city police on October 23 prevented supporters of the main opposition bloc – known as the Azadlig (Freedom) coalition, comprising the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, the Musavat Party and Democratic Party of Azerbaijan – from holding an unauthorized demonstration in the center of the Azerbaijani capital.

Azerbaijan intrigue

Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich republic on the western shores of the Caspian Sea, are scheduled for Nov. 6.
They have all the trappings of a James Bond movie. In fact, the film "The World is not Enough," which centered on the struggle to control Caspian Sea oil, was shot in the capital, Baku, in 1999.
But now it is life's turn to imitate art. Today's intrigue in Azerbaijan includes power struggles, a clash between geopolitical giants the U.S., Russia and Iran, an ethnic conflict with Armenia, and refugees. Add corruption, lots of oil and gas, and serve hot. This is a perfect mix for a first-rate thriller.

Azerbaijan takes steps for fair vote

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has ordered urgent steps to make sure a 6 November parliamentary election is fair after Washington voiced concern over a police crackdown in the oil-producing ex-Soviet state.

Aliyev told officials on Tuesday to draw up plans for applying indelible ink to voters' fingers and asked parliament to scrap a ban on foreign non-governmental organisations monitoring the election, state television reported.

[stu]

Azerbaijan's President Bows to U.S., European Pressure on Vote

Azerbaijan may start fingerprinting voters to avoid fraud during next month's parliamentary elections in the former Soviet state, as President Ilham Aliyev yields to pressure from Europe and the U.S.

``I believe we should consider the possibility of marking fingers with invisible ink at the time of receiving voting lists on the elections day,'' Aliyev said in a speech yesterday in Baku, the Azeri capital, to government officials and election commission heads. He called the measure ``exclusive and temporary.''

Azerbaijan authorities charge more suspects in coup plot

Two more former officials in Azerbaijan have been accused of involvement in a conspiracy to seize power in the republic, an official statement said Wednesday.

The document said former government chief of staff Akif Muradverdiyev and Fikret Sadykhov, the ex-president of state-owned chemicals concern Azerkhimiya, had joined ex-parliamentary speaker Rasul Guliyev, ex-health minister Ali Insanov, ex-economic development minister Farhad Aliyev and other suspects in an attempt to overthrow current authorities in Azerbaijan.

[stu]

UNITED STATES URGES MODERATION AS AZERBAIJAN’S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION APPROACHES

Amid Azerbaijan’s political tension, which in recent weeks has resulted in clashes between authorities and opposition supporters, US Ambassador Reno Harnish has emerged as perhaps the foremost advocate of moderation.

As the US envoy, Harnish’s statements and actions are scrutinized by Azerbaijani politicians and media, and he is widely perceived to be among the most influential political actors in Baku. For example, after Harnish’s call for talks brought an unsanctioned opposition rally in Baku to a halt on September 25, one Azerbaijani news agency referred to him as "the real master of the pre-election situation." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Two days later, an analysis published by the Turan news agency said that Harnish is able to both "stop the police machinery" and "curb the revolution[ary] spirit of the opposition. ... In one day he can stop a situation, or let the conflicting parties tear each other apart."

[stu]

ALIYEV ISSUES NEW DECREES TO IMPROVE ELECTION TRANSPARENCY

A combination of international pressure and domestic tension has forced the Azerbaijani authorities to make several significant concessions regarding the November 6 parliamentary elections. Speaking at the October 25 governmental session, President Ilham Aliyev outlined new measures to ensure a transparent and democratic electoral process. Following that meeting, he signed a new presidential decree that contains a number of suggestions for the parliament and Central Election Commission (CEC) regarding the improvement of the electoral process.

CONSPIRATORS OR SCAPEGOATS? AZERBAIJAN STILL BUZZING OVER CABINET SHAKEUP

Throughout the past week, Azerbaijan's citizens and outside observers have been discussing President Ilham Aliyev's surprising cabinet reshuffle. On October 19 President Aliyev suddenly dismissed several ministers and high-ranking officials, some of whom were quickly arrested by the country's law enforcement agencies. This risky, but long-awaited, step happened just two weeks before the upcoming November 6 parliamentary elections.

[stu]

AZERBAIJAN'S RADICAL OPPOSITION ON THE EVE OF ELECTIONS

The radical opposition bloc Azadliq (Freedom) is capturing international headlines through high decibel power and the decade-old political investment into a few of the bloc's leaders by some Western human-rights groups. In the perception of most Azerbaijani voters, however, Azadliq leaders are indelibly associated with the turmoil of the early and mid-1990s, when they held power and failed the test of statesmanship for the entire country to see. Their overall track record while in opposition is also a discouraging one in terms of political maturity.

Azerbaijan officials confess coup plot

Azeri ex-ministers and officials were paraded on television confessing their guilt in a coup plot, just days before a parliamentary election that is likely to be dominated by President Ilham Aliyev’s supporters.
The officials were arrested last month for backing exiled opposition leader Rasul Guliiyev in a conspiracy to topple Aliyev, who succeeded his father as president.
“I wanted to give support to Guliyev and gave money for that too,” Akif Muradverdiyev, a former presidential aide to Aliyev, said in the broadcast late on Tuesday.

[stu]

Azerbaijan’s Campaign Ends, Attention Now Focusing on Post-Election Period

With campaigning having wrapped up for Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election on November 6, authorities and opposition leaders are focusing on post-election plans.

Perhaps more than the actual results, the conduct of the balloting will be closely watched both inside and outside Azerbaijan. Foreign governments, including the United States and Turkey, have exerted considerable pressure on Azerbaijani officials to conduct a free and fair vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meanwhile, some international non-governmental organizations, including Human Rights Watch, have already raised alarms about unfair electoral practices. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

AZERBAIJAN'S MODERATE OPPOSITION ON THE EVE OF ELECTIONS

Azerbaijan's moderate opposition has been relegated to undeserved obscurity in terms of international media coverage and Western policy assessments of the situation in Azerbaijan. The attention has focused on the radicals because of their confrontational tactics and "revolutionary" phraseology. Meanwhile, the moderate opposition's Yeni Siyasat (New Policy, YES) bloc is fielding candidates in 69 out of the 125 single-mandate electoral districts. Opposing any revolution for its destabilizing effects, the YES bloc calls for reforms through evolution and public accord.

Tension as Azerbaijan polls loom

Campaigning is drawing to a close in Azerbaijan as the country prepares for parliamentary elections on Sunday.

Nearly 2,000 candidates are running for 125 seats in the first vote since Ilham Aliyev replaced his father, Heydar Aliyev, as president in 2003.

[stu]

Azerbaijan vows fair vote as opposition aide held

Azerbaijan's parliamentary election on Sunday will be free and fair, the head of the ruling party said on Saturday, but police kept a leading opposition party's campaign manager under arrest for a third day.

Azerbaijan has a record of flawed votes and some in the opposition say if the election for the 125-seat Milli Majlis is rigged they will mount mass protests like the peaceful uprisings that led to revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia.

2 Campaign Heads Detained in Azerbaijan Ahead of Sunday Elections

Two opposition campaign chiefs were detained in Azerbaijan a day before the country’s citizens elect a new parliament amid allegations of electoral fraud and fears that protests could be violently suppressed.

About 15 law enforcement officers raided the headquarters of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan on Thursday and seized election materials for party head Rasul Guliyev, Associated Press reported. Faramaz Javadov, the campaign chief.

Saakashvili: Stability in Azerbaijan Crucial for Georgia

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who visited on October 4 the Mosques in Tbilisi, said that stability and peace in Azerbaijan is of crucial importance for Georgia and the region.

He said that he wishes “victory not to a certain candidate, but to the entire Azerbaijani people” in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for November 6.

[stu]

International Observers Find Fault with Azerbaijan’s Parliamentary Elections

The preliminary findings of international observers tend to support opposition claims that Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections were marred by massive irregularities.

According to a statement issued by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the most serious problem connected with the November 6 election concerned the counting process. “Voting was generally calm, but the election day process deteriorated progressively during the counting, and, in particular, the tabulation of votes,” the November 7 statement said.

Azerbaijan: the next ex-Soviet revolution?

Just one day after the last ballot was cast in Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections, opposition parties, backed by foreign observers, are calling the vote invalid and threatening massive street rallies to force a replay of the vote.
The government of President Ilham Aliyev, in a closely watched campaign, promised a free and fair vote on Sunday. But Monday, the main opposition party, Azadliq, said the results in four-fifths of the country's provinces should be invalidated.

Azerbaijan's opposition calls for new elections

Azerbaijan's opposition parties have called for new parliamentary elections, Chairman of the Popular Front Party Ali Kerimli said Monday.

"The opposition demands new parliamentary elections," Kerimli said. "The opposition has not cancelled the rallies set for November 8 but has postponed them until November 9... We urge journalists to come to the protest rally."

[stu]

AZERBAIJAN RESPONSIVE TO ELECTION OBSERVERS' CRITIQUE DESPITE EXAGGERATIONS

Quite predictably (from past experience, and in a novice parliamentary system) many local irregularities were recorded in Azerbaijan's November 6 parliamentary elections. Equally predictably from all opinion surveys, the irregularities could not affect the clear-cut overall victory of President Ilham Aliyev's Yeni (New) Azerbaijan Party. Reports of irregularities proliferated because tens of thousands of Azeri observers were accredited to watch the balloting and vote counting at the polling stations, and no fewer than 1,800 candidates ran in only 125 single-mandate electoral districts -- a frustration-breeding ratio of 14:1 that itself testifies to the immaturity of the country's recently introduced parliamentary system.

[stu]

Observers: Dip in Azerbaijani Voter Turnout Signals Apathy

With less than half of all registered voters casting ballots, Azerbaijan’s November 6 parliamentary vote registered the lowest voter turnout in a decade. While the international community has praised reforms taken to ensure a free and fair election, some local observers suggest the dip in turnout points to a troubling trend: a feeling that Azerbaijanis do not have a stake in the vote.

The considerable drop in official voter turnout came on the heels of an intense and often bitter election campaign, with both opposition and pro-government parties spending millions on television airtime, posters and banners to present their point of view. The opposition staged repeated unauthorized rallies, broken up by police, while both opposition and pro-government candidates made use of so-called “black PR” or smear campaigns to tarnish contenders.

Opposition-Government Negotiations: So Much for the Revolution?

Nearly a week after Azerbaijan’s November 6 parliamentary vote, reports have surfaced that the opposition and government are holding talks aimed at resolving the dispute over election results. Some opposition leaders, however, maintain that an opposition boycott of parliament will occur.

Since the November 6 voting, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has cancelled results in two constituencies and re-considered results in favor of candidates from the Azadlig (Freedom) opposition bloc in two others. President Ilham Aliyev has also fired the governors of two regions for alleged interference in the voting process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Two constituency election commission chairmen and two precinct commission heads in #42 Sumgait and Baku’s #9 Binagadi have been detained by the prosecutor-general’s office for suspected election fraud.

[stu]

Azerbaijani Opposition Faces Important Tactical Choices

Azerbaijan’s broad opposition movement is facing important tactical choices in the coming days, as it strives to reverse the results of what it maintains was a widely rigged parliamentary elections. Subtle divisions are emerging within the movement, with opposition leaders preferring moderate tactics while some rank-and-file activists are arguing for non-stop protest rallies.

According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), opposition representatives have won 11 seats in parliament to date – seven for the Azadlig (Freedom) bloc seats (including four for the Musavat Party and three for the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan), one for the Liberal Party of Azerbaijan and two for the Yeni Sisayet (YeS – New Policy) bloc.

WILL AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION CHOOSE TURMOIL AS A STRATEGY?

Emboldened by certain international monitors' biased assessments, and ignoring the more objective evaluations of Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections, opposition leaders have launched street actions to press for the annulment of the results of the November 6 parliamentary vote and for holding new elections country-wide. The radical opposition Azadliq (Freedom) bloc is now mobilizing its supporters with imaginary claims to have won the elections.

[Mesuge]

Well, the best part is that all these abuses are paid with our money..

stu> All of the above and more has been eloqeuntly depicted in this award wining Czech documentary Source (Zdroj) 2005. For the technical Peakoilers lots of important information too - horizontal drilling, fountain drilling etc. onshore 50-70 years old infrustructure in total decay, BP and European Bank for Reconstruction invested mainly in the BTC pipeline so abuse of the oilfields continues..

Baku the hometown of the world's first oil well kind of symbolizes it all..

More info about the film here:
http://www.automatfilm.cz/en.html
http://www.automatfilm.cz/index.html

You can order the DVD here for a few bucks (subtitles czech, english, russian):
http://www.bionaut.cz/
http://www.bionaut.cz/uploaded_images/Z ... 706594.jpg

About the BTC project:
http://www.bankwatch.org/publications/index.html

[stu]

Workers in Azerbaijan Suspend Strike

Hundreds of employees of a U.S. oil field contractor in Azerbaijan returned to work Wednesday, but they vowed to strike again if their demands for higher wages are not met.

The workers at the McDermott Caspian Contractors - a contractor for British oil giant BP's Azerbaijan subsidiary - refused to show up to work Tuesday to protest a company decision they said decreases their salaries by almost 50 percent.

[stu]

KERIMLI BATTLE-CRY SPARKS MELEE IN BAKU

An emotional outburst by Popular Front of Azerbaijan Party (PFAP) leader Ali Kerimli, urging confrontation with the police, turned the opposition's lawful, peaceful November 26 post-election protest rally into a violent melee with the Baku police. Kerimli's rhetoric differed markedly from that of Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar, whose speech called for caution, law-abiding tactics, and not giving the police any reason for using force.

Police Squash Election Sit-Down Protest

peaceful opposition protest against fraud in Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections ended in violence November 26 after police, armed with truncheons, tear gas and water cannon, broke up an attempted sit-down action. Despite the use of force, opposition leaders are vowing to organize new demonstrations in their effort to secure a new parliamentary vote.

Fifteen minutes from the end of the two-hour demonstration, Popular Front Party Chairman Ali Kerimli, a leader of the opposition Azadlig (Freedom) bloc, told a crowd of several thousand protestors chanting for a sit-in that he would join them if they wanted to sit down. ''I will sit with you,'' Kerimli said, though stated that protestors would not hold the square all night.

[Graeme]

Do As I Say, Please

The president of Azerbaijan, home to the world's fastest-growing economy and $10 billion in investments from leading oil companies, including BP, worries that a military confrontation between its southern neighbor, Iran, and the U.S. will destabilize his country's fast-growing energy sector.

Marking his first official visit to Washington D.C., on Wednesday, Ilham Aliyev, an ally who has sent soldiers to assist the U.S. in Iraq, is warning the White House in blunt terms that escalating rhetoric with Iran will lead to "hurtful consequences" for the Caspian Sea region, an increasingly important oil source for Europe and other Western markets.

Rather tough talk from a guy in charge of a place with only 8 million people and a military that has yet to overcome its painful loss in battle to tiny Armenia. Here's why Aliyev can get away with it: The twin pressures of $72 per barrel oil prices and Iran's unabashed nuclear ambitions make him a key player in high-stakes energy and security policy issues.

forbes

[Specop_007]

He lost a war to Armenia?!
Jesus, I think my shooting club has enough firepower to defeat Armenia....

[Bleep]

He lost a war to Armenia?!
Jesus, I think my shooting club has enough firepower to defeat Armenia....

Was some other nation assisting Armenia?

[mekrob]

AZ production is about .5 mpd. To disrupt even half of that would be pretty significant around the world. But still nothing compared to the 2.5 mpd exported from Iran and 15-20 in the Persian Gulf. Insignificant.

[Jelan]

According to SOCAR's president Rovnag Abdullayev, Azerbaijan in the nearest future will increase it presence on European gas market and in 2025 country's gas output will be around 50 billions cubic meters. Well, sounds good, but the question is how Azerbaijan is going to make it? To become a competitor on European gas market Azerbaijan will need more gas resources than it possesses and the only way to achieve the desired is to use gas fields like Araz, Alov, Sharg, Azeri, Chirag and other ones in the Caspian region that are being disputed by Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan. BTW, Iran said that it own 46 fields in the Caspian region, so the dispute will be too long and hard... Speaking legally, until the dispute is not over no one can work on the fields unhindered. Otherwise it will cause some serious court proceedings and later huge money penalties for intruders. Azerbaijan already felt its mouth for that gas, but forgot about the possible consequences to start with court costs and fines which can make Azerbaijan's losses bigger than gains not saying about letting Azerbaijan's partners and consumers down. I have to say that venture is too risky to be involved.