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PeakOil is You

Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Are people dumb for not getting peak oil?

Poll ended at Wed 23 Jul 2008, 05:02:54

Yes, they are ignoring the most important issue of our time.
44
54%
No, the people have enough to deal with in their lives
19
23%
I'm too busy shopping to deal with this poll.
2
2%
Peak Oil I'm just trying live from day to day!
4
5%
Its the oil companies they have plenty of oil!
0
No votes
I'm too busy stockpiling weapons, food and ammo.
7
9%
Don't you watch TV everyone says oil prices will come down.
6
7%
It's the liberals we have plenty of oil in Alaska!
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 82

Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Apr 2018, 15:53:42

KaiserJeep wrote:Forget climate change and AGW. Those are losing arguments, there isn't anybody listening any more. You made all the converts you will ever make there.

You do realize that folks like you aren't everyone, re this issue, right?

Just because some folks will require more evidence, including obvious indications of change around them, doesn't mean they can't be converted.

Is your hope that you berate people who believe the overwhelming majority of the scientific evidence, that they will be cowed into silence?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 12 Apr 2018, 18:13:32

It is simply my belief that the AGW/CC argument is entirely moot. If we were to continue burning FF's at the present rate, within 1-2 centuries, the theory would be conclusively proved one way or the other.

Meanwhile, there is little doubt we are in the grasp of a cooling trend that has not yet peaked and will last another 2-3 decades. The earthsat directly measured global temperatures do show the temperature declines, the IPCC majority opinion on the matter of global warming is also declining, which assertion will be confirmed (I anticipate) in 2019's Sixth Assessment Report.

However, the rate of petroleum consumption will taper off quite sharply due to peak effects, which is why the whole controversy is moot. The energy shortage and crisis in transport that follows will dwarf the whole AGW controversy.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Apr 2018, 18:42:35

KaiserJeep wrote:Meanwhile, there is little doubt we are in the grasp of a cooling trend that has not yet peaked and will last another 2-3 decades. The earthsat directly measured global temperatures do show the temperature declines, the IPCC majority opinion on the matter of global warming is also declining, which assertion will be confirmed (I anticipate) in 2019's Sixth Assessment Report.

New global average temperature records for modern times are being set nearly every single year. SLR is accelerating. Cherry picking to claim we're in a "cooling" trend will only buy you credibility among the deniers.

So if the majority is 90% or 96% instead of 97%, this means it can't be happening? Sure.

Meanwhile in the real world of climate and observation:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/scie ... ecord.html

“What’s going on in the Arctic is really very impressive; this year was ridiculously off the chart,” said Gavin A. Schmidt, head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, a unit of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration that tracks global temperatures.


"Impressive" in this context is NOT a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 12 Apr 2018, 21:02:37

Get a clue. There are as many ways of defining, deriving, and anally extracting "average global temperatures" as there are climate scientists. Some show warming is occurring, some show cooling. But the Earthsat data, which measures and integrates the black body infrared radiation from an entire hemishere of the globe, is better than any other measure of global average temperatures.

You know the one. That online data set that inconveniently shows a global cooling trend that all of you have been ignoring, denying, and discounting for all five years that I have been here at PO.com. The dataset that professors John Christy and Roy Spencer, both NASA scientists from the University of Alabama at Huntsville, have defended successfully from all comers, in concert with Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT.

These scientists and learned professors of atmospheric science and meteorology DO NOT come out and flatly say that AGW is happening or not happening, any more than do the other members from the IPCC. Instead they most carefully talk about evidence - and there is a plentitude of evidence on both sides of the controversy - and probabilities.

It is left to the ignorant, the non-scientists, the idiots of the world who do not understand the very process of science, to profess belief in the theory of AGW/CC. Some of you have even made the truly ludicrous and absolutely wrong assertion that all one needs to understand is the greenhouse effect to understand why warming is occurring.

Need I point out that the Earth's atmosphere is a complex system and the greenhouse effect is but one factor out of millions? Need I point out that few genuine scientists express such opinions, but ignorant laymen and PO.com members do so all the time?
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 05:00:21

KJ, you make a good argument. No one can say for sure what will happen or even what caused it. But you are still cherry picking and showing bias.

KaiserJeep wrote:But the Earthsat data, which measures and integrates the black body infrared radiation from an entire hemishere of the globe, is better than any other measure of global average temperatures.


That is clearly biased. I don't know who told you that but you need to doubt them just like you doubt everyone else. I told you, IR radiation measured from space is a poor representative of global energy levels.

KaiserJeep wrote:The dataset that professors John Christy and Roy Spencer, both NASA scientists from the University of Alabama at Huntsville, have defended successfully from all comers, in concert with Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT.


If you really think these dudes are smarter than everyone else, why have I never heard of them? If you want to convince me, link the article and quote me some meat...Where in their argument do they transcend the rest of the scientific community. What formulas have they put forward to explain the atmosphere? A dataset doesn't explain why.

KaiserJeep wrote:Some of you have even made the truly ludicrous and absolutely wrong assertion that all one needs to understand is the greenhouse effect to understand why warming is occurring.


I am a scientist and I will not be convinced by one dataset, one research paper, or one theory of greenhouse heating. But recent heating in the Arctic has got me worried.

KaiserJeep wrote:It is left to the ignorant, the non-scientists, the idiots of the world who do not understand the very process of science,


Wow, that is clearly biased against the general public. Tell me how it really works Oh Great One.

I notice you never provide links. As we've discussed, this relegates your posts to simply opinion. I have an opinion too...

I think AGW is more pressing than peak-oil. I have always felt that way and I always will. It is more instinct than science. Or maybe just logic.

We can live without oil, we can live without electricity, we cannot live without a livable planet. CO2 and warming are just one way we are screwing the pooch. There are many ways that we mistreat the planet. Many of those ways tie back to FFs.
Oil spills
Plastic in the ocean
Ocean dead zones due to FF fertilizer
Ash ponds
Acid rain
Fracking and earthquakes
Air and water pollution of all kinds
Just plain waste...

I don't have kids. It's easy for me to look out 500 years and not worry about the immediate future. I might have 40 years left :) I see a clean planet populated with mature responsible humans who revel in their connections with Nature. Smart people who have moved past prejudice and hate and accepted that everyone is different but still good inside. That is my own bias and I will work to make that happen for the rest of my life.

We are indeed headed into a Solar minimum. But to think we have studied the Sun long enough to know what it will do in the next 11 year cycle is ridiculous. It's 5 billion years old and we have been watching for few hundred...get real. He will take us by surprise.

Don't worry about the things you cannot control. Do something about the things you can control. We are contributing to trashing the planet and I, for one, am trying to stop.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 09:52:27

If you really think these dudes are smarter than everyone else, why have I never heard of them? If you want to convince me, link the article and quote me some meat...Where in their argument do they transcend the rest of the scientific community. What formulas have they put forward to explain the atmosphere? A dataset doesn't explain why.


Not sure how anyone can claim to know much about modern climate science yet never have heard of John Christy and Roy Spencer especially given Christy testified before Congress on the subject not that long ago. In any event here is their latest paper

Christy, J.R., et al, 2018. Examination of space-based bulk atmospheric temperatures used in climate research. Int Jour of Remote Sensing, V30. doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1444293

from their conclusions:

One key result here is that substantial evidence exists to show that the processed data from NOAA-12 and −14 (operating in the 1990s) were affected by spurious warming that impacted the four datasets, with UAH the least affected due to its unique merging process. RSS, NOAA and UW show considerably more warming in this period than UAH and more than the US VIZ and Australian radiosondes for the period in which the radiosonde instrumentation did not change. Additionally the same discrepancy was found relative to the composite of all of the radiosondes in the IGRA database, both global and low-latitude. While not definitive, the evidence does support the hypothesis that the processed satellite data of NOAA-12 and −14 are characterized by spurious warming, thus introducing spuriously positive trends in the satellite records. Comparisons with other, independently-constructed datasets (radiosonde and reanalyses) support this hypothesis (Figure 10). Given this result, we estimate the global TMT trend is +0.10 ± 0.03°C decade−1.

The rate of observed warming since 1979 for the tropical atmospheric TMT layer, which we calculate also as +0.10 ± 0.03°C decade−1, is significantly less than the average of that generated by the IPCC AR5 climate model simulations. Because the model trends are on average highly significantly more positive and with a pattern in which their warmest feature appears in the latent-heat release region of the atmosphere, we would hypothesize that a misrepresentation of the basic model physics of the tropical hydrologic cycle (i.e. water vapour, precipitation physics and cloud feedbacks) is a likely candidate.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 13:14:49

baha - Not my cat fight but I did read your post. And in much of it you seem to be doing the same as you accuse KJ of doing. Not picking sides...just saying.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Yonnipun » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 15:29:24

Hi

This is my first post in this forum. Considering my cognitive abilities I can say that I am pretty dumb. I am amazed by people who do computer programming and stuff like that and I can not even understand what the hell is a bitcoin and how this whole cryptoworld works. But on the other hand the concept of peak oil is so simple that even a person with half a brain could understands it. I myself found out about peakoil about 10 years ago when the economy overheated and the price for diesel went up so much that I eventually started to use diesel that was meant for agriculture to save a little bit. I started to browse the web about oil prices and then I found the latoc forum and since then I become a doomer. So basically I think that bright people figure it out by themselves and not so bright need a little bit of push. I was 25 back then. I would like to hear from smart ones here when and how did you first understand that we are doomed.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 18:31:33

I am not a climate scientist. I am an entry level physicist, a philosopher, and a damned good solar professional. I studied geology, astronomy, thermodynamics, quantum mechanics, relativity and German. I forgot most of it as soon as I left college :)

But I still have my impressions about relationships. I still study geology and cosmology. I am a big picture kind of guy. But I drill down into the details of solar power. Just like you drill wells :)

My impression of thermodynamics and quantum mechanics is 'that shit is hard and tedious' I bet atmospheric science is the same way. Please don't make me do it :(

I said this is my opinion. I have clear biases. I'm not interested in a cat-fight. But I will call a spade a spade at any time. Or not...

I'm testing my debate skills, I may need them soon. KJ is just the guinea pig :) How am I doing so far?
Last edited by baha on Fri 13 Apr 2018, 20:27:26, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 19:07:32

I'm sorry KJ, Maybe I should have called you the worthy opponent :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 19:38:42

baha, the whole climate debate has revolved for years around the IPCC pubs. They publish "Assessment Reports". AR4 was published in 2007, AR5 in 2014, and AR6 is expected in 2019. These are in the form of three large documents from the working groups, and a "short" synthesis report of about 150 pages, and then an even shorter "Summary for Policy Makers". NONE are light reading, my guess is that most politicians don't get past the half page abstract of the Summary Report, and don't understand that.

The take away message here is that the Summary Report is where they present and opinion poll of the working group members about climate. They present majority and minority totals. Without question, the majority of members has favored the position that humans are changing climate in all the summaries. However, as we learn more about climate and climate models, the size of the majority is shrinking. I believe that in AR6 next year, the majority will shrink again.

The very suggestion that certainty does not exist, or that there are perfectly qualified climate experts in the minority opinion, such as the afore-mentioned Christy, Spencer, and Lindzen - drives the AGW fanboys absolutely batty. The idea that the concensus opinion is slowly unravelling as the impact of the solar minumum owns the atmospheric carbon content, is even more disturbing. But the most disturbing concept of all: we'll never really know who was right with complete certainty, because science doesn't work that way, although in a couple of centuries, there will be a lot less uncertainty about climate.

You'd think somebody shot their dog, the way they are acting. :mrgreen:
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 21:10:41

baha, the whole climate debate has revolved for years around the IPCC pubs. They publish "Assessment Reports". AR4 was published in 2007, AR5 in 2014, and AR6 is expected in 2019. These are in the form of three large documents from the working groups, and a "short" synthesis report of about 150 pages, and then an even shorter "Summary for Policy Makers". NONE are light reading, my guess is that most politicians don't get past the half page abstract of the Summary Report, and don't understand that.


I've said this many times on this site....the Summary for Policy Makers is not even close to what is presented in the working group assessments. The working group assessments point out the uncertainties and they indicate which papers they have referenced. It is pretty easy to figure out which papers were not included. Notwithstanding, the working group assessment is nowhere as cut and dried nor as doom and gloom as the Summary. If you only want to prove your view about AGW you can easily reference the Summary if you are actually interested in what is going on you will spend the time to read the working group papers. By in large they are not all that technical, they are summaries of the published literature at the time of writing. They are out of date for certain but there are many papers that suggest better outcomes and there are many papers that suggest worse outcomes. The point being it is science advancing in its normal manner if the political folks who want some sort of consensus they can use as a cudgel would just shut the heck up.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 08:13:53

Yes, there is no consensus or certainty. The science is hard. The feedback loops are unknown. The future is coming like a freight train and we have no control...I don't like it.

You can't find answers unless you look for them. To say we have to burn FFs to survive is a cop-out. I will admit we need to burn FFs to power the research and manufacturing needed to complete the transition. But this is doable.

The IPCC is a political organization designed to influence policy. The politicians are in charge. They let the scientists fight it out and write their papers and then they cherry pick the ones they like. They don't want to rock the boat too much. But they do want to control your thoughts :)

I don't need certainty. I learned a long time ago to trust my instincts. I do things slow and steady. I listen to my instinct and then think for a long time about what it's trying to tell me and how to react. My instinct says no matter how much oil there is, we will move past it. Maybe I'm biased...but I think everyone knows that killing the ocean is a bad thing. And you can't breath the stuff that comes from tailpipes.

KJ - As you look out on the smog hanging over your world I bet you also think FFs are a bad thing. Your breathing that stuff!

If FFs are going to be replaced anyway, let's get started :) I decided to do just that. And position myself at the bottom quickly so I could be on top when the transition really caught on. It has worked spectacularly. So well I am looking for a new challenge.

Scientific consensus is being overcome by public outrage (those AGW fanboys you keep talking about). Even though the IR sensors say 'all is well', the arctic is melting, the seas are rising, the jet stream is freaking out, and the storms are coming. If there is a 'Maunder minimum' there will just be Nor-easters instead of hurricanes. It is going to become more and more apparent that we have really screwed up.

I will be in a position of strength. I will be leading us out of this mess. What are you doing?
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 08:45:47

So maybe the consensus actually is that we all agree that we live in tubulent times where enough chaos is present that predictions become unreliable. Funny how the physical and cultural mirrors each other.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 10:14:45

baha – “You can't find answers unless you look for them.” So true. But much easier to find those answers if one decides what the answers should be before the analysis is done. Unfortunately a common approach on both sides debating many various issues to day. And much of that bias is based upon one's feelings of what should be done. Often the reality of where trends are heading is to depressing to accept.

BTW nothing wrong with a good cat fight if both sides are being interlectually honest. Why I never skip your posts.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 11:15:20

Thanks Rockman, that carries a lot of weight. I have followed your posts since the beginning. All you Rock Dudes :) My mom got her PHD in math after I left home and worked for XOM until she retired (by way of Superior Oil). I watched her think it out and change from broke teacher to successful IT manager. I'm proud of her too...

ROCKMAN wrote:But much easier to find those answers if one decides what the answers should be before the analysis is done.


That is the opportunity for success! If you are right you get in before everyone else. If you are wrong...it sucks, try again.

ROCKMAN wrote:And much of that bias is based upon one's feelings of what should be done.


Of course it is. That's the human part.

ROCKMAN wrote:Often the reality of where trends are heading is to depressing to accept.


Only for the loser :)
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 11:27:33

Wow, that's almost insulting...I didn't mean it that way RM. It's not personal, it's human :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 14:20:26

KaiserJeep wrote:Get a clue. There are as many ways of defining, deriving, and anally extracting "average global temperatures" as there are climate scientists. Some show warming is occurring, some show cooling. But the Earthsat data, which measures and integrates the black body infrared radiation from an entire hemishere of the globe, is better than any other measure of global average temperatures.

Yes, yes, of course. The entire scientific community studying and modeling CC is wrong, and you and others who look for any anomolies in the data are right. Intuition and personal belief trump science every time. The world is flat and the sun revolves around the earth, because we can see it with our eyes so it is "obvious". :roll:

And all the evidence points your way. The polar ice isn't melting over time, warming isn't occurring. It's all made up. It's all a conspiracy from the far left. :?

I stopped being religious as a teenager due to lack of evidence to support the concept of supernatural beings or events.

You're going to believe what you're going to believe. Good luck with that.

BTW, if the preponderance of EVIDENCE calls for a change, I'll certainly consider that.

Meanwhile, hell, Carbon 14 data even lets us objectively see what proportion of CO2 buildup in the atmosphere is man made. But let's not consider evidence if it interferes with KJ's belief system.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 18:19:24

In spite of your personal need to believe that something either IS or IS NOT, the world is analog and not digital.

I am perfectly comfortable not knowing whether the AGW theory is correct or not, for another century or two, until a valid judgement can be made about the matter.

As I have said many times, the point is moot. We cannot stop burning FF's and we will not. Knowing that the absence of cheap energy would kill 3/4ths of our population, we will continue to do so as long as possible. When it is no longer possible, we will start to die in greater numbers.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 20:20:36

KaiserJeep wrote:
I am perfectly comfortable not knowing whether the AGW theory is correct or not. As I have said many times, the point is moot. We cannot stop burning FF's and we will not.


This I agree with and KJ remaining open and in the middle gray area between black and white around AGW makes sense.


Knowing that the absence of cheap energy would kill 3/4ths of our population, we will continue to do so as long as possible. When it is no longer possible, we will start to die in greater numbers.


KJ, since you are so comfortable hanging in the gray unknown middle territory regarding AGW why don't you apply that as well regarding our fate once fossil fuels decline. Why are you so certain that 3/4 of our population will die with the absence of cheap energy? Your certainty is suspicious.
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