[vtsnowedin]

I came across a useful link so I am sharing it. Click on the URL, expand the map all the way out to world size and scroll up to see NSR traffic. I count 20 ships currently using the NSR despite the fact that we are a week and a half into October now.

URL Interactive Shipping Map

And how many transited the Panama and Suez canals on the same day?
It is a change for sure but it will be a long time before NSR traffic takes any significant portion of shipping away from the other routes.

[theluckycountry]

"Following a nuclear-powered icebreaker, a Russian tanker has sailed through the frigid Northern Sea Route for the first time ever in February. “Won’t somebody think of the poor ice?”, climate-conscious commenters shouted.

That's so funny, the poor ice, like it's laying their bleeding. These activist types have lost all sensibilities, though the current generations sitting at their computer consoles probably identify with them. Anyone crying of an seeming injustice is lauded by the younger generation now.

[ROCKMAN]

vt: Panama Canal: 2020...13,369 IOW about 37/day

Suez Canal: The Suez Canal Authority has shattered its record for the daily number of ships passing through the strategic waterway. On Wednesday, (Oc t 2021) it handled a total of 87 vessels, easily surpassing the previous record of 75, which was set on February 6, 2019.

So combined around 100 to120/day.

[vtsnowedin]

vt: Panama Canal: 2020...13,369 IOW about 37/day

Suez Canal: The Suez Canal Authority has shattered its record for the daily number of ships passing through the strategic waterway. On Wednesday, (Oc t 2021) it handled a total of 87 vessels, easily surpassing the previous record of 75, which was set on February 6, 2019.

So combined around 100 to120/day.

Proves my point.

[theluckycountry]

vt: Panama Canal: 2020...13,369 IOW about 37/day

Suez Canal: The Suez Canal Authority has shattered its record for the daily number of ships passing through the strategic waterway. On Wednesday, (Oc t 2021) it handled a total of 87 vessels, easily surpassing the previous record of 75, which was set on February 6, 2019.

So combined around 100 to120/day.

Proves my point.

Sanctions proved your point.


Putin plans on having NSR cargo traffic significantly increase up to 80 million tons a year. Ships will mainly transport liquefied natural gas, oil, and coal.

The Arctic route from Southeast Asia to Europe cuts transportation time in half, compared to traditional routes through the Suez and Panama canals.
https://www.rt.com/business/501905-nort ... -shipping/

[vtsnowedin]

Putin has not been shown to be a great planner. And cutting the time in half does not mean you cut the cost in half if you need an icebreaker clearing your path six months of the year.
edit to add this.

In 2018 there were 18,174 transits with a net annual tonnage of about 1,139,630,000 metric tons (1,121,163,000 long tons). The original Suez Canal - Suez Canal - The economy: In 1870, the canal’s first full year of operation, there were 486 transits, or fewer than 2 per day.

[theluckycountry]

That's all irrelevant, the sanctions basically stopped a lot of the shipping over the summer period.

[AdamB]

Putin has not been shown to be a great planner. And cutting the time in half does not mean you cut the cost in half if you need an icebreaker clearing your path six months of the year.

Shouldn't global warming solve that problem real quick like?

[vtsnowedin]

Putin has not been shown to be a great planner. And cutting the time in half does not mean you cut the cost in half if you need an icebreaker clearing your path six months of the year.

Shouldn't global warming solve that problem real quick like?

No it will still be dark 24/7 for six months of the year and if warmer with open water will have gales that can sink an Edmond Fitzgerald.
If they get to 100 million tons they will have cut Suez traffic by about nine percent.

[AdamB]

Putin has not been shown to be a great planner. And cutting the time in half does not mean you cut the cost in half if you need an icebreaker clearing your path six months of the year.

Shouldn't global warming solve that problem real quick like?

No it will still be dark 24/7 for six months of the year and if warmer with open water will have gales that can sink an Edmond Fitzgerald.
If they get to 100 million tons they will have cut Suez traffic by about nine percent.

Okay, but didn't the Edmond Fitzgerald have a suspected structural problem after it's rebuild that was thought to make it prone to exactly the kind of conditions that sunk it? If ships would be taking on the Arctic and the gales that come with it, you would want a modern and well built transport ship to do it I imagine.

[vtsnowedin]

Okay, but didn't the Edmond Fitzgerald have a suspected structural problem after it's rebuild that was thought to make it prone to exactly the kind of conditions that sunk it? If ships would be taking on the Arctic and the gales that come with it, you would want a modern and well built transport ship to do it I imagine.

Would not the added cost of building ships to routinely take force 10 and force 11 storms (waves 30 to 50 feet high) make the NSR less cost competitive?

[Newfie]

Neither of the arctic routes are a piece of cake. On the one hand you need to deal with the Canadian arctic archipelago which jams with ice in an unpredictable manner. And also there there are some very shallow and rock strewn stretches. The Siberian route has ice but also very shallow stretches. In both cases it is possible for the ice to force you aground far from shore.

Russia has by far the most, biggest and best ice breaker fleet around. I believe it is well over the rest of the world combined. They have the only nuclear breakers. They have a big building program.

Both routes are only seasonal routes for a long time to come. Help is a long, long way off, time and distance, if available at all. And shit happens.

The only viable reason to open the Eastern passage is for Russia to have an uncontested route to the Pacific. It is the only route America does not control.

Putin is planning a hermit state.

[AdamB]

Okay, but didn't the Edmond Fitzgerald have a suspected structural problem after it's rebuild that was thought to make it prone to exactly the kind of conditions that sunk it? If ships would be taking on the Arctic and the gales that come with it, you would want a modern and well built transport ship to do it I imagine.

Would not the added cost of building ships to routinely take force 10 and force 11 storms (waves 30 to 50 feet high) make the NSR less cost competitive?

Good question. My answer is horizontal wells are terribly more expensive than vertical ones, but the overall economic results were more lucrative, even with the higher initial outlay. We need someone who knows what $/ton shipped costs look like as it relates to time perhaps? I think you could very well be right, if $/ton Arctic = $10 in X time, and $/ton otherwise = $6 in X time (which would include the CapX outlay for the more expensive ships), the Arctic would get whupped. But if there is a time difference, the expensive ship delivers more tonnage per month, and while it costs more, there might be some economy of scale advantage in time. Maybe. The market will figure it out for itself I suppose.

[theluckycountry]

Neither of the arctic routes are a piece of cake.

Yes, Unless and until all the ice melts up there, the routes are really of no real consequence to the rest of the world.

[Newfie]

That will take quite a long time yet. Not in our kids lifetimes.

[Tanada]

Neither of the arctic routes are a piece of cake.

Yes, Unless and until all the ice melts up there, the routes are really of no real consequence to the rest of the world.

I firmly disagree. Shipping companies are all about time and cost of transport. If my container ship can save 35 days in transit that is 35 days of crew wages and fuel costs avoided. If I have to spend half the difference in costs to pay for icebreaker support I still come out way ahead in the cash savings game. Now add in the factor that if I send ten ships on the faster route I save so much time (350 days) that it would be the same as having an additional full cargo ship at my disposal for a full year of service without the expense of paying crew, buying and fueling the ship.

It doesn't matter if the route is only open 4-6 months of the year as even with a shorter season I am still saving a large sum of money which makes my bottom line and dividend checks fatter and my stock prices higher, not to mention my bonus as CFO of the shipping company.

[vtsnowedin]

Neither of the arctic routes are a piece of cake.

Yes, Unless and until all the ice melts up there, the routes are really of no real consequence to the rest of the world.

I firmly disagree. Shipping companies are all about time and cost of transport. If my container ship can save 35 days in transit that is 35 days of crew wages and fuel costs avoided. If I have to spend half the difference in costs to pay for icebreaker support I still come out way ahead in the cash savings game. Now add in the factor that if I send ten ships on the faster route I save so much time (350 days) that it would be the same as having an additional full cargo ship at my disposal for a full year of service without the expense of paying crew, buying and fueling the ship.

It doesn't matter if the route is only open 4-6 months of the year as even with a shorter season I am still saving a large sum of money which makes my bottom line and dividend checks fatter and my stock prices higher, not to mention my bonus as CFO of the shipping company.

You have a lot of Ifs there. The actual math including insurance costs will settle the matter but I suspect many shippers will not want to sail through Russian territorial waters at any price.

[Newfie]

But it makes sense if the Russians an notnsail through NATO waters.

Putin has been planning the Hobit Empire for a while.

[theluckycountry]

After the fall of the USSR the Americans went into Russia rubbing their hands with glee and started to carve up all the natural resources. Putin came along and told them to F-off, these are our resources. That's why the west paints Putin as Evil, he turned the tide on western exploitation. Same with Iran, Iraq, same with Libya, and it will be the same with Saudi Arabia if and when they join the BRICS. Mohammed bin Salman will be painted as a rogue dictator and all his human rights abuses ( the ones the west have been covering up) will be brought to light.

Don't forger Saddam Hussein was best buddies with the US until he became a rogue dictator. The US was happy to sponsor him in the Iraq/Iran war.

The U.S. government may be considering military action in response to chemical strikes near Damascus. But a generation ago, America’s military and intelligence communities knew about and did nothing to stop a series of nerve gas attacks far more devastating than anything Syria has seen, Foreign Policy has learned.

In 1988, during the waning days of Iraq’s war... U.S. intelligence officials conveyed the location of the Iranian troops to Iraq, fully aware that Hussein’s military would attack with chemical weapons, including sarin, a lethal nerve agent. U.S. officials have long denied acquiescing to Iraqi chemical attacks, insisting that Hussein’s government never announced he was going to use the weapons. But retired Air Force Col. Rick Francona, who was a military attaché in Baghdad during the 1988 strikes, paints a different picture. “The Iraqis never told us that they intended to use nerve gas. They didn’t have to. We already knew,” he told Foreign Policy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/ex ... ssed-iran/

It's hard to admit to the hypocrisy of the Empire when your very prosperity depends on that hypocrisy.
The rest of the world sees the Russian/Ukrainian conflict in a completely different light. Especially the Western Europeans freezing tonight.

[vtsnowedin]

Oh gee, American corporations coming in and developing resources and hiring local people with good paying jobs and producing salable products for domestic use and export while paying taxes to the government.
The horrors!
Much better to have a gang of oligarchs take over and oppress the masses while fitting out their yachts with stolen profits.