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Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:06:21

The doom and gloom ice posting are off to a slow start this year. March maximums are in and it’s another non record year with Arctic sea ice extent the highest in 7 years. Natural variability trumps AGW again?

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its annual maximum extent on March 5. The 2020 maximum sea ice extent is the eleventh lowest in the 42-year satellite record, but the highest since 2013.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 09:24:04

jawagord wrote:The doom and gloom ice posting are off to a slow start this year. March maximums are in and it’s another non record year with Arctic sea ice extent the highest in 7 years. Natural variability trumps AGW again?

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its annual maximum extent on March 5. The 2020 maximum sea ice extent is the eleventh lowest in the 42-year satellite record, but the highest since 2013.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The maximum ice extension may not be that bad, but how about thickness and total volume? Most of that ice is very thin ice that could melt very fast if recent record hot global temperatures continue. Maximum winter ice extent is one of the least important numbers regarding this issue. It's the Summer ice that is most important. I guess we will see what the minimum Arctic sea ice extension looks like in a few months. I expect Arctic sea ice to melt almost completely any year now, and the albedo from that will seriously melt the little multi year thick ice remaining.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 08:12:22

Looking at the 2020 extent on the NSIDC chart, there has been unusually quick reduction in extent. Am wondering if this is bad data? See the graph here:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/


Looking at the volume, it does look like 2020 will likely come in as the lowest ever as the melt season develops (the volume continues to grow to mid April even as the edges begin to melt?):

Image


I have also been wondering about the relatively thin ice in the central arctic basin, here is 2020 map:

Image


here is March 27, 2019 for comparison:

Image


and here is March 27, 2018:

Image


http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-ic ... nd-volume/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 09:38:00

One week later...


Persistent above average temps over the arctic - it's been similar to this image for April 5th for several days (and much of the winter):

Image

As illustrated in this graph:

Image


Volume continues to amass at the lowest amount ever:

Image



Extent is on a par with 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 - only 2019 was lower at this time of year:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 10:36:21

I think you have to look at the steepness of the curve. 2019 was steeper. For early April, the steepness of the curve is about the same as other years outside of 2019 within the last decade. It's not set up for less ice loss, nor for more. If we are lucky, it will only continue the trend. We don't want an inflection point right now. The virus is competing with the issue. It may well go ignored. Not that it wouldn't be anyway.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 11:08:22

Well, there are many factors that will influence the steepness of that curve as the melt season unfolds, not least of which is the volume of the ice, which is trending low.

Also, I read somewhere that ice export through the Fram Straight has already begun. Seems unlikely to happen so early?

But looking at the surface winds on Earth.null School, they are blowing from the north right through the straight.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,88.33,288
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 16:51:04

Azothius wrote:Also, I read somewhere that ice export through the Fram Straight has already begun. Seems unlikely to happen so early?


Export is not time of year depend so much as the Arctic Oscillation cycle. When it runs one way the export rate is low, when it runs the opposite direction export is high no matter what time of the year it is.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 03:47:46

This might be a dumb question, but with the world largely relatively shut down, there are lots of short term indications that's good for the environment/AGW.

As this continues and the season progresses, could the global shutdown affect the arctic sea ice this season, or would that input be a much longer term thing for the sea ice?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 06:39:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:This might be a dumb question, but with the world largely relatively shut down, there are lots of short term indications that's good for the environment/AGW.

As this continues and the season progresses, could the global shutdown affect the arctic sea ice this season, or would that input be a much longer term thing for the sea ice?


We may actually experience increased heat as NO2 and other global dimming pollutants have been drastically reduced because they last a short time in the air. This could lead to positive feedbacks which could also increase temperatures faster, things like faster ice and snow melt, which would lead to a higher albedo effect and, maybe, increased methane releases, too. This has never happened before so I am very curious to see how it plays out.

The reduction in greenhouse gasses emissions would be something that would only matter if it continued long term, and it would only slow the process of global warming, not stop it, IMO. I believe runaway global warming is already baked in the systems.

I would appreciate feedback on my opinion since it is mostly a guess. I don't know much about this at all.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 07:42:56

JuanP wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:This might be a dumb question, but with the world largely relatively shut down, there are lots of short term indications that's good for the environment/AGW.

As this continues and the season progresses, could the global shutdown affect the arctic sea ice this season, or would that input be a much longer term thing for the sea ice?


We may actually experience increased heat as NO2 and other global dimming pollutants have been drastically reduced because they last a short time in the air. This could lead to positive feedbacks which could also increase temperatures faster, things like faster ice and snow melt, which would lead to a higher albedo effect and, maybe, increased methane releases, too. This has never happened before so I am very curious to see how it plays out.

The reduction in greenhouse gasses emissions would be something that would only matter if it continued long term, and it would only slow the process of global warming, not stop it, IMO. I believe runaway global warming is already baked in the systems.

I would appreciate feedback on my opinion since it is mostly a guess. I don't know much about this at all.



I've shared this elsewhere, but here is Paul Beckwith's analysis of the effect the economic slowdown could have on reducing global dimming and it's effect upon temperatures:

Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34e1LJ9C-mw
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 30 Apr 2020, 09:34:38

Pretty striking downturn of arctic sea ice volume.
Compaction % is also notably low.


Image

Extent
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent/ ... 2000:00:00

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/

Area & Compaction
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 01 May 2020, 12:06:55

Yes, I was looking at the historical graph this morning on NSIDC. Last year was the only year that was much lower at this time. And the rate of decline is similar now to last year. It wouldn't take much to get a record year. Just because it wouldn't take much doesn't mean that's what will happen. The point is that you can't rule out a record year based upon the current level of ice cover.
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