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Arctic sea ice 2019

Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 09:09:48

Sea ice 2018 is locked down so a new year a new part of the arctic death spiral….

Good news,

The Beaufort Gyre is spinning clockwise as it has done throughout our history, Nova Zembla East coast is invaded, taken by the pack of sea ice, Franz Joseph islands are in a firm grip and Spitsbergen Northeast coast is on the verge of being overrun, frozen into the dark winternight, the silent desert of ice and snow, where only the wind makes for whistling grinding and howling noise.
With two more months of winter to go, I see the big phase change not happening this year, it all depends up on the next spring/summer's weather.

The bad news is that the Azoren high lies west of Ireland, for days now and it is not normal, we can expect huge meanders of the yet, possible break up of the Polar Vortex, all foreplay of the big breakup, our first BOE.
Very intense low on the Fram, hotspot is right next to the polar cold, of GIS and the sea icecap.
BC Canada is very warm for the middle of januari
Surface sea temperature has 40 knockon effects, the most of any phenomena.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 760,75.967

I think The Bering sea will follow the winter ice and cold of Alaska/East-Siberia and be ok for the coming years, the Atlantic side/Northwest Russia is where the changes will be first, front of the battle between heat and cold, if we see changes, it will be there, Barentz/Kara/Laptev/East Siberian Sea, then a reversal of the Gyre and flush of all sea ice into history, summer and winter.

A completely different Earth system within a decade from now, that is what I think, just an opinion :roll:
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 09:33:37

Interesting observations. Why a reversal of the gyre?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:16:31

Newfie wrote:Interesting observations. Why a reversal of the gyre?

Yes I have to doubt that can happen. The earths rotation and the tidal forces are not going to change.
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Gyre magic

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 16:37:44

I agree with the Earth to stop spinning and reverse, that is very unlikely.
But the Beaufort gyre is mainly winddriven and has reversed every now and then, forgotten where I read that and I will look into it, my knowledge of the arctic is limited though….gotto go for now :oops:

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/ ... ufort-gyre

The gyre spins in the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska and Canada and south of the North Pole. When this ocean current spins clockwise, it traps Arctic ice and freshwater melt. When it spins the other way, it ejects that ice and freshwater out past Greenland into the North Atlantic, making weather in Northern Europe cooler. It is a natural phenomenon, but something has gone awry with the way it operates, as its periodic reversal is way overdue.
Typically, cyclonic storms occur every five to seven years in the North Atlantic and move into the Arctic, causing the gyre to weaken and reverse direction, explains journalist Ed Struzik, a fellow with the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen's University and author of “Future Arctic: Field Notes from a World on the Edge.” In recent years, however, the Arctic has been warming faster than the rest of the planet, and scientists speculate this has caused the gyre to stay in a clockwise direction for more than a dozen years.
“Nobody really understands what's going on,” Struzik says, “but it's probably a combination of climate change and massive runoff of freshwater coming off the Greenland glacier that is preventing those big cyclones from forming over the North Atlantic and moving into the Arctic.”


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_Gyre

The Beaufort Gyre is a wind-driven ocean current located in the Arctic Ocean polar region. The gyre contains both ice and water. It accumulates fresh water by the process of melting the ice floating on the surface of the water.[1]
The Beaufort Gyre has formed a dome of freshwater that has expanded vertically by about 15 centimetres (5.9 in) since 2002; by 2011 it had swelled to about 8,000 cubic kilometres (1,900 cu mi) in volume.[5] The freshwater within this gyre represents about 10% of all the freshwater in the Arctic Ocean; the majority of the Arctic's freshwater supply originates from Russian rivers as runoff.[5] The clockwise circulation of the Beaufort Gyre is induced by the wind patterns associated with the permanent anticyclonic high pressure system over the western part of the Arctic. In a clockwise-rotating gyre in the Northern Hemisphere, the Coriolis force causes the ocean water to flow inward toward the gyre's center where it accumulates, effectively forming a dome of water. If the wind patterns shift into a cyclonic circulation due to the residence of a low pressure system (rising air induced by warmer ocean temperatures a greater volume of open Arctic Ocean water), this will cause the circulation of the Beaufort Gyre to reverse and flow counter-clockwise. If this occurs, the Coriolis force would bend the flow out and away from the center of the gyre and, instead of the formation of a rising water dome, a depression would form and upwelling of the warmer water from the Atlantic ocean would occur.
Oceanographer Andrey Proshutinsky has theorized that if the winds and the gyre's circulation were to weaken, high volumes of freshwater could leak out of the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean into the Northern Atlantic Ocean, impacting the Thermohaline Circulation and thus climate.[6]
Due to seasonal sea ice formation, the Beaufort Gyre is difficult to access and thus study in the Northern Hemisphere winter months; the lack of sunlight in these months forces the use of artificial light.[1] Studies by Arthur S. Dyke and others show that if the volume of outflow of rivers into the Beaufort Gyre increase, the gyre itself might spatially shift toward the right.[7]

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Barents sea storm of winter 2019

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 07:12:50

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 634,73.467

Look at it, heat from Egypt is flowing to Southern Nova Zembla, cold from the entire arctic ocean/GIS/barren/Alaska Brook Range is draining into the North Atlantic/Fram to Scandinavia. Freezing in spain, chilly for sunbirds moving south for the winter.
Imagine storm after storm heading up and above, past Nordland and squeezing the Gyre out of shape, overturning it completely.
It will be a constant heat engine/cold drain for week or months until the season changes.
Under these conditions, there will be no sea ice summer and winter.
No sea ice means no ice sheets, just glaciers on the higher elevations on the continental mountains, way more rainfall events on the coastal slopes.

This is just the warm up, not yet the abrupt phase change itself which will be like death, irreversible and final
The Alps stood in the way of the persistant Northern wind loaded with moisture of a warm ocean/sea's, tons of snow, 15 feet in some places in Austria/Southern Germany. Without enough sea ice, the face of the Northern Hemisphere will be completely different. All organic life depends on water and all rivers/deserts will be effected.
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Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 15:02:18

The high pressure system in the gulf of Alaska makes together with the blocked 3 lows a double drain of cold, Maybe this really turns into a split polar vortex within days from now! On the pacific side the cold of the barren is flushed down south, the low on the Barents sea drains the Siberian cold down the Fram.
Still plus minus 20 degrees Celcius, so not a danger for the ice, but a persistent wind could make the ice thin and easy to melt next summer. We have to be patient and wait for the sun to come up to see for ourselves I guess.
The Bering strait is narrow so I bet loss of ice and cold is limited and were it not an entry for warm salty brine from the Pacific?
Anyway, the Gyre is gone but nowhere near reversed.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 479,65.594

I am turning into a nullschool addict, indulging into it like watching the campfire in a dark forest towered by white capped mountains…..I long to go into the wild again, got to be patient and use my will, intent to go for it, Always works, to mold this world to fit my path, my specifications.
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Re:

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 15:53:35

Whitefang wrote:The high pressure system in the gulf of Alaska makes together with the blocked 3 lows a double drain of cold, Maybe this really turns into a split polar vortex within days from now!

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at forecasts from the professionals who forecast the weather for a living using science, instead of speculating?

Are we really that hard up for , "hey, I found some potential bad news"?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Polar Vortex Split

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 09:01:25

You mean like:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/cl ... cillation/

Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.

Science blog keeping us informed on wind patterns in the arctic, that was the report that got me started looking for the spit on nullschool, I think it ok to try to confirm what is written in papers/idea's of scientists with data/pictures found on the net, discussed here and there, that is why I like peakoil so much :-D

I just like to see and understand myself, at least I try :roll:
Far from being objective, my feelings and opinion will be inbetween, it is more a comment, nothing more, a sharing of feelings if you will :oops:
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Verification, real time and in person

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 15:41:11

https://www.popsci.com/polar-vortex-fractured

The polar vortex is making big changes for the new year. Around January 1, this whirling blob of cold air, which sits 10 to 30 miles above the surface of the North Pole, broke apart into at least two “sister” vortices. Disruptions like this can cause a ripple effect leading to chilly weather further south, and meteorologists say there’s potential for a spell of wintry weather to hit the northeastern U.S. and western Europe toward the end of the month.


Seviour adds that it’s incorrect to say the polar vortex is “moving” to those affected areas. While it can move a little south in a disruption, the polar vortex, as scientists define it, is mainly confined to the stratosphere above the Arctic. Instead, the jet stream—located in the troposphere—moves south after a polar vortex disruption and brings the Arctic cold air with it.



Great 3D vieuw on tweeter :-D , MJVentrice.
Maybe better if we do a separate post on the PV, Polar Vortex, as a side effect arctic sea ice will be more mushy, broken by wind and heat moving up, cold draining south.

So it already split up and is causing all those storms, depressions up on top.

Look, nullschool with a result of the split, Greek freeze, snowdump in Alps after blocking high west of Ireland and deep yetloop south, imagine a permanent split and what that would cause, these are just precursers of what this Earth is turning into.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 738,29.550

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 997,41.105

Even the Sahara, northern part is getting chilled to the bone.
Last edited by Whitefang on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 16:17:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 16:05:37

Keep talking, good stuff.
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Re:

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 16:08:22

Whitefang wrote:https://www.popsci.com/polar-vortex-fractured

The polar vortex is making big changes for the new year. Around January 1, this whirling blob of cold air, which sits 10 to 30 miles above the surface of the North Pole, broke apart into at least two “sister” vortices. Disruptions like this can cause a ripple effect leading to chilly weather further south,


and meteorologists say there’s potential for a spell of wintry weather to hit the northeastern U.S. and western Europe toward the end of the month.

Winter weather in the North East USA in January? What a novel concept!!
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Snowedin

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 16:30:18

Snow in winter is not the novelty here Mr.snowedin, talk to those living in Southern Germany who have martial law, state of emergency for having 3 meters in a few days, Austria same thing, they know very well what to do with snow but are at loss, paralized with meters of it, same with rain events, or drought, it is the extremes life has problems coping with, wether mammals, trees or grasses.

https://www.dw.com/en/deadly-snowfall-w ... a-46981061

Winter storms have killed several people across Europe, including in Germany. While conditions have improved in some parts, meteorologists predict it's just the calm before the next storm.


Another terror attack from the abrupt CC mob, a worldwide terror network to end our liberty and freedom, our mass consumption.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 20:22:48

Snow in the Alps in winter? How unusual! Not!!! :razz:
And 80 centimeters is not several meters of snow.
Meteorologists at the German Weather Service (DWD) expected up to 20 centimeters (8 inches) of snow in the Berchtesgaden district in southeast Bavaria on Monday and up to 40 centimeters in parts of the Alps and Alpine foothills. The service also warned of avalanches and snow damage, for instance from falling branches.

The region has been hit with 60 centimeters of snow, according to the DWD, though it says the flurry could ease up temporarily on Monday afternoon. Several Bavarian school districts have canceled classes on Monday because of the conditions.
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Whiteout

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 06:14:58

Allrighty then Mr.Whitey, totals in Austria were up to 3 meters, I'll look for for some better info in your Mothertongue, the dutch and german newsoutlets were not talking centimeters, meters of fluffy white.

About that PV spit article:

https://www.popsci.com/polar-vortex-fractured

Ventrice explains that because the warming started over Siberia, there will be a lag of 20 to 40 days before any weather effects are felt (the reason why this lag happens is unclear, but it may have to do with distance and sea surface water temperatures). In contrast, last year—which also saw a split polar vortex—the warming started over the North Atlantic ocean in early February, and the effects were felt much sooner. Recall the stories of the “Beast from the East” that hit Europe last year, in which 95 people died of weather-related causes.
“By the end of January, we might actually start to see [weather] effects,” says Amy Butler, an atmospheric scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in Boulder, Colorado. This potential shift to chillier weather could last as long as six weeks, she added.



then the scientists go on that we do not know, no conclusive evidence, no consensus etc etc.....a bit like the denier idea, sponsered to keep the public from knowing the end is nigh, ELE in progress, second flood on the horizon, after that biblical one, the last glacial. Maybe just me with conspiracy theory...hihi.

Some have speculated that climate change in the Arctic could make these vortex disruptions more common, thinking a lack of sea ice could weaken the polar vortex. But Butler, Seviour, and Ventrice all maintained that there isn’t conclusive evidence for this. “There’s no consensus on whether [the polar vortex] will have more disruption in the future,” says Butler.
The polar vortex is notoriously unpredictable, and so far there doesn’t seem to be clear pattern in disruptions. In the 1990s, there were almost no disruptions to it. But in the aughts, there was a disruption almost every year. More recently, between 2013 and 2018, the polar vortex had remained stable. While two years of disruptions in a row might seem alarming, there isn’t much evidence they’re actually increasing in frequency. “There seems to be some longer-term variability in the stratosphere that we don’t really understand,” says Butler.


Even in the near term, we can’t be certain what effect this year’s vortex disruption will have on weather. “A big factor is just random variability,” says Seviour. “The atmosphere is chaotic, which means there’s a limit to how much you can predict.” Factors like being in an El Niño year, a climate pattern characterized by warm surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, could delay the effects of the polar vortex, says Ventrice.
“There’s a lot of expectation after these events,” says Butler. “People will always be like OK, it’s happened, I want to know when it’s going to get cold in New York.” But predicting how a change in winds high above the Arctic will affect weather in the midlatitudes is complicated. Adds Butler, “We can say your chances of it being cold in this region have now increased … But we don’t know for sure when it’s going to snow.



Well, to me, the less people know about abrupt CC and it's result, death and destruction, the better, the longer our infrastructure stays intact and the more time we have to do our preps, the older and stronger my children will be.


Back to snow

https://sputniknews.com/europe/20190107 ... -snowfall/

The amount of the snowfall on the ground ranges from 158 cm in Germany to 1.2 metres in Innsbruck, Austria. The ski area of Tauplitzalm in Styria reportedly has 210 cm of freshly fallen snow


6 feet in places and that were only after the first hit, totals over 10 days report up to 3 meters.

https://www.onthesnow.com/austria/skireport.html

Up to 200 inches, but that is the maximum on the higher slopes of ski resorts, 100 inches is the norm. 2.5 meters.
Just me cherry picking :roll:
Not important, the thing is that the polar front is busted, cold is leaking, heat is going up.
While there is still sea ice, we'll be fine, no worries.

When that is gone, we, our modern grain based society are basicly done for, agriculture cannot cope with an ice free arctic.
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Re: Whiteout

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 08:06:46

Whitefang wrote:
then the scientists go on that we do not know, no conclusive evidence, no consensus etc etc.....a bit like the denier idea, sponsered to keep the public from knowing the end is nigh, ELE in progress, second flood on the horizon, after that biblical one, the last glacial. Maybe just me with conspiracy theory...hihi.


"sponsered to keep the public from knowing the end is nigh,"
To what purpose?
Scientist are careful never to get caught being wrong or lying. That is why words such as probable and likely are used instead of positive and certainty and they always throw in near the end "More research is needed" even if they have determined the sun rises in the East.
You are reading into their papers what you want to hear without giving equal weight to their cravats and cautions so reach conclusions that they themselves do not hold. They write dramatic headlines to get published and secure more funding but they always mince words below the fold to keep their reputations intact as they don't really know yet what the outcome will be.
I would say that the idea that the arctic ocean could remain ice free through ninety days of arctic winter darkness is pretty far fetched no matter which way the polar winds blow or ocean currents speed up or slow down.
I write this sitting looking out at -5 degs.F with 500 cm of snow pack at 44.000 North latitude. A nice winter day quite normal compared to my sixty years of memories from this same sight. You could move my normal winter weather (and sunlight) North 46 degrees of latitude and still,have complete sea ice coverage in January.
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buying time, Franz Joseph islands partly free

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 09:08:09

Thanks for your response on such a short notice VT,I bet the Vermont outdoors are lovely and I do envy you and your family while stuck in lowlands where it feels like being trapped in a big city……
CC scientist are being watched over by them elites, they want to know how much time is left before TSHTF and they do want to keep their make belief power, in this case currency, worldwide, any would do, they are not bound to a nation/religion/continent or institute, army or police, secret or not. Only 8000 plus families controlling almost 8 billion.
How one person controls a million? Terror, obedience from kindergarden on.
See for yourself if you think it is all a joke.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=du ... &FORM=VIRE

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -dead.html

This special club has a huge body count, worldly wars from time of industry and roots from pyramids on, dig yourself and the dirt will come up, again not important, they are with their backs against the wall, like us.

In short they are buying time to do prepping, the consensus is that things can be hold together until 2030. Calm before the storm.
That is why they buy farms in New Zealand, Southern Island, Iceland, South America....you name it, floating palaces with guns and plenty ammo, building bunkers and so on, even some Moroccan elite 5 km down the river where I am building a doomstead on top of the Rif. Anyway, time is everything, they managed to keep the world economy floating after the 2007 bankrupcy.

Back to sea ice, I noticed some Franz Joseph islands free from the ice pack after the storm:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png
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Re: buying time, Franz Joseph islands partly free

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 09:35:32

Whitefang wrote:
Back to sea ice, I noticed some Franz Joseph islands free from the ice pack after the storm:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png
That chart is pretty typical for the day of the year. There are three full months of ice building yet to go this winter.
Island retreats and armed yachts are all well and good but which of them is truly independent and self sustaining? If a true apocalypse were to come about they would all end up controlled by the guards and servants that are doing the work on them now, not the rich family being waited on.
Being rich will be of little use when there is nothing to buy and what will be is being armed ,dangerous and self sufficient.
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Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 09:46:25

Thank God for months of winter left to heal the sea ice a bit.
I agree, the problem with home or doomstead is how to defend it, mission impossible.
Same for bug out vehicle or boat, no matter how big a ship.

Best to learn to hunt and gather, find a large forest like the boreal or taiga forest, then paddle and fish for life.
Humanity did so for ages, times before the flood, we can do so again if needed, to see how far we can go for that wild ride.
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Re:

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 10:23:26

Whitefang wrote:Thank God for months of winter left to heal the sea ice a bit.
I agree, the problem with home or doomstead is how to defend it, mission impossible.
Same for bug out vehicle or boat, no matter how big a ship.

Best to learn to hunt and gather, find a large forest like the boreal or taiga forest, then paddle and fish for life.
Humanity did so for ages, times before the flood, we can do so again if needed, to see how far we can go for that wild ride.
I don't need to learn how to hunt ,fish or gather but if I was doing it full time I would of course get better at it. I wouldn't move North into taiga as the growing season is too short and there already enough native people on that ground to use all it's productivity and my arrival would be unwelcome.
Instead I'd plant some crops here on my own land where I can defend or hide them and hunt and fish while they grow. 200 yards of potato row can provide enough food to get you through the winter with or without meat and fish to go with it.
Driving off scavengers and thieves, some pretending government authority would be my biggest worry.
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White Sea less white

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 14:50:22

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

East of Nova Zembla is neatly frozen, fast ice on the coast of eurasia is getting packed, Bering sea is loosing some on concentration near the Alaska coast but the gap North/northeast of Spitsbergen is getting wider. East of Spitsbergen is fine. Baltic sea and White sea are only partly capped in ice.

Windpatterns have changed and there has not been a stable Beaufort Gyre this winter, at least so far.


Yes onlooker,

I bet special forces from some private army like NATO have the best options/gear to last longest, better put some distance to you and places they operate, are housed and so on. Basicly all you need to have is the skill and knowledge of survival in the wild, find shelter, make fire, water and some food to make it through the winter.
Dangerous for sure but less than staying in town.
Who knows what wonders lie in store if we succeed in changing ourselves :)
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