[Outcast_Searcher]

With 2021, prices are high as hell for decent food.

From what I am seeing, where I am, this country just keeps getting poorer (and fatter).

Nonsense.

One datapoint from a biased internet commenter doesn't make valid statistical information.

There are plenty of statistics on overall inflation. It's higher than we're used to over the past couple of decades, but it's not that bad. As usual, more whining than big problem.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

Both the summary tab and the forecast tab tell the tale re 2021 inflation, and the inflation forecast.

If you want to see nonsensical inflation conspiracy data, just look at shadowstats. Anyone with a third grade math education can see that what they claim over time re inflation makes NO sense re real world data.

I get fresh food from my nearby Kroger every week or two -- meat and fruits and vegetables. Like the inflation data, prices have risen some, but not dramatically. Same for the places I get take-out during the pandemic.

Looking at futures prices generally, lots are going down significantly as well as up. Especially in lots of foods.

And the other side, which you don't mention, is wages have been rising significantly since the pandemic. The median US household income is up as usual in 2021, having fell a bit in 2020, due to the pandemic.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... e-by-state

https://www.census.gov/library/publicat ... 0-273.html

https://www.vox.com/22600143/poverty-us ... lus-checks


Significantly higher wages and somewhat higher prices doesn't translate into much higher poverty in the real world.

But I know, your ilk has fast crash doom to sell, as always.

[evilgenius]

I had to replace the power steering pump in my SUV. I checked out the prices, and was surprised to find that my local auto parts store was the best deal.

The thing had been leaking for a while. I was using the fluid with stop-leak in it. That only slowed it down. But I didn't need to do the repair immediately. I stopped by after work one morning, to find out they could get it the next day, as they most often can with parts I need.

I went then because I thought they could very well have supply problems. I was glad to find out they didn't. They were, as usual, understaffed. That is par for the course for auto parts stores, I think.

[JuanP]

Here in Miami there are some empty spaces in stores' shelves, definitely enough to be unusual and noticeable, but the most obvious shortage is that of people willing to work. There are 'Help Wanted' signs in every other business. First time in 30 years here I see anything like this.

Prices are obviously higher across the board. But, with tariffs on many Chinese imports and container shipping going for around $20,000 instead of the normal $2,000, this is not surprising. I expect inflation in the USA to remain high.

The good thing is that the shipping rush to supply Americans with Chinese crap for the holidays is past its yearly peak, but I don't expect things to get better in the USA yet.

[noobtube]

With 2021, prices are high as hell for decent food.

From what I am seeing, where I am, this country just keeps getting poorer (and fatter).

Nonsense.

One datapoint from a biased internet commenter doesn't make valid statistical information.

I've dealt with your kind for years and years. I see something locally. The normies either ignore my observations and conclusions or are dismissive and condescending. I think to myself, what makes your opinion any more valid than mine. Better to be prepared than a fool.

And, when I am right, these same people don't want to talk about it, avoid me, or they act as if they knew it all along.

Of course, they want to (and do) benefit from MY preparation and foresight.

Takes a lot of patience being the only adult around adult children. (The police will protect us. The government will save us! Nothing is wrong! All is well! It will go back to normal! We're exceptional! We're the richest country!)

And the other side, which you don't mention, is wages have been rising significantly since the pandemic. The median US household income is up as usual in 2021, having fell a bit in 2020, due to the pandemic.

Significantly higher wages and somewhat higher prices doesn't translate into much higher poverty in the real world.

But I know, your ilk has fast crash doom to sell, as always.

Higher wages means higher prices. That is the effect of massive inflation. Who cares when there is nothing to buy? Or, what is the point if what you want is rising just as fast? There are so many empty storefronts in my area. The streets and highways are packed with cars burning gas. But, with a lot fewer stores, restaurants, and products, where do you go to spend those high wages? Round and round in circles wasting fuel and time.

Let's set aside these stupid face diapers and jab mandates.
Let's set aside these dumb fears of getting sick and not wanting to travel and be around other people.
Let's set aside the permanent drop in travel, hospitality, and leisure that affected the airlines, hotels, and attractions across the country and the jobs that went with them.
Let's set aside all the big projects that were planned or completed before the lockdowns and all the sunk and lost resources.
Let's set aside the massive jump in fuel prices that affects shipping, transport, and the drain on national wealth.

Let's just ignore all the warning signs because today, your belly is full.

I go into the mall and the quality of the clothing is awful. Lots of synthetics and blends. No natural fibers like cotton, wool, leather, like in the past. And, when you do get 100% cotton, the fabric is so thin and basic. The cost of clothing may be down since 2000, but that is because there is a glut of cheap clothing, not good clothing that has gotten cheap. Super 100s, cashmere, alpaca, vicuna, linen, lambskin are found in specialty stores, not malls. But, they used to be (except vicuna).

These young people don't know what good clothing is. It's all t-shirts and blue jeans because that's all this country can afford. As late as the 1990s, young people would wear sport coats and dress shoes, when going out on the town. Now, it's gym shoes and cargo pants. Yep, that's a sign of national prosperity.

Driving a new car but looking like a bum. The country looks poor.

I go into the Big Box Stores often. Sure, inventory is arriving, but it is nothing like it was in 2020.

Last year's sales were incredible. The selection was immense.

In 2021, I see sky-high prices on tools and the selection is pathetic compared to last year. You could buy these rolling kits that had a bountiful selection of items. Gone! Today, it is the tool version of shrink-flation. More technology, higher prices, but the same basic tool from last year. Poor battery selection. Lots of cheap crap, like hand tools, squares, and gloves.

Stocked up in 2020, from the stuff that is missing this year. Got backup laptops, batteries, power supplies, and storage devices.

I feel sorry for those who listen to people like you.

[Pops]

I stock up too, always have. I find simply putting some people on ignore is really the best mental health exercise.

The one thing I really hate is when I think about a problem but shine it, and it comes back to bite me. —like say I'm working on an old house and I skim over the door jambs in the demo and rebuilding phase knowing full well they won't be plumb... then when I go to hang in some refinished or new ones, sure enough I have to cut out the jamb and re-plumb everything—guess what I've been doing today? LOL

The last several years we've been kinda itinerant serial restore 'n flippers. Hey, 0% interest and $20 oil from now on right? Last year we were in SW WA when the pandemic came around. I had some backup but it's hard to move a bunch of food etc around the country. We did OK, I am self-employed but that evaporated quick, I didn't talk to a human at the unemployment office for over a year, wound up taking SocSec early.

We were ready to sell that place so we did about August. Moved back to MO. I'm not really a gambler, figured it is better to lose equity on a $70k place rather than a $350k place, right?

Here is how prices look (Those of you old enough to remember the last time "everything was fine" might remember Calculated Risk blog, hat tip to them.)



That is the craziest WTF chart ever! 20% YoY and that is for the country as a whole. And not from some recession-pit prices either, RE hase been plugging right along at 5% for a number of years, buoyed by federal borrowing to buy mortgages. People thought I was goofy when we bugged out from CA in 2004 or 2005. I just can't believe how many were sure prices would go up forever.

So anyway, I'm not a gambler, and I hate it when I get caught with my pants down. I'm dug in like a tick again except this time I've got cash, I just hope I get a clue soon whether this inflation is going to be transitory.

[JuanP]

That is the craziest WTF chart ever! 20% YoY and that is for the country as a whole. And not from some recession-pit prices either, RE has been plugging right along at 5% for a number of years, buoyed by federal borrowing to buy mortgages. People thought I was goofy when we bugged out from CA in 2004 or 2005. I just can't believe how many were sure prices would go up forever.

That is a crazy chart! In Miami the RE market is more unhinged than ever before. When this bubble blows up, and it will, it will make the 2008-2009 bust look like kid's play. Also, sales are through the roof, not just prices; this is a seller's market big time. Everyone in the RE business down here is making a killing right now. My wife's RE company just gave a $2,000 bonus to each of its more than 100 RE salespeople.

It feels like 2006-2007 all over again. What I am curious about is whether this is going to blow up before or after the next presidential election. The USA has never had more, or bigger, bubbles; we have a dollar bubble, debt bubble, stock bubble, bond bubble, and RE bubble. They could all just fall like dominoes.

[The_Toecutter]

My personal experience somewhat aligns with noobtube's. Inflation has almost always outpaced wage increases.

Grocery stores are the only place I purchase goods from with any regularity. Since keeping my receipts from 2008 to present, prices for the same basket of goods that I regularly purchase have consistently been going up 6-12% year over year, which is in contradiction of the Consumer Price Index and the official inflation rate commonly spouted by government mouthpieces. I don't purchase exotic food items, unless you consider beans, rice, spices, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, or wild caught fish to be exotic. I avoid all the processed/sugary/GMO crap, and it is not cheap to do so.

Lately, I have noticed spot shortages of certain items, and even entire sections of the grocery stores curtained off. The shortages aren't severe and only rarely have I gone home missing one or some of my usual purchase items, but none the less the scenario is not the same as it used to be.

I can't speak on the subject of clothing. I'm a cheap bastard and still wear my old clothes from high school, and don't throw them out until they are damaged beyond repair. My most recent acquisitions were some hoodies and blue jeans given away for free from someone who grew out of them. The only clothes I bought in the last 20 years were a pair of leather steel toe boots, a pair of dress slacks, and some socks, and I have no way to compare prices from when I purchased them versus now because I haven't been out shopping for them.

As far as electronics and parts for my custom EV projects, the shipping crisis and parts shortages have made themselves blatantly obvious. I'm still waiting on parts I ordered 6 months ago. But this issue didn't start this year. A year ago I ordered a 20S Lithium Ion BMS circuit board that took 5 months to arrive from the date I ordered it. A PWM controller took 6 months to arrive.

[evilgenius]

Dealing with shortages reminds me of what it is like to make anything. If you make things, you go through cobbling together what you need from various other pieces. If you make things, you discover that nobody makes what you are looking for, so you figure out how to make it yourself.

Society is nice. It provides not only the things, but the goals that want those things to help achieve them. Society is not evil for providing those goals. It is only taking some work away from you. It is up to you to decide if that is being lazy in some way. Maybe we ought to find our own goals? If we did, though, it might mean we had to deal with shortages all of the time, like when you make things.

Dealing with society over this is really about dealing with how close you want to be to your fellow man. How tied into them do you want to be? Should self-reliance always be the primary way? Where does relying upon others make sense? Does it ever make sense to default to relying upon others? How much should I trust other people? Conversely, can they trust me?

As an aside, I have spent a great amount of time dealing with this sort of thing. I have been tempted to lose faith in my fellow man. Gosh, why aren't any of them on my side? I have had help, but it's rare. And nobody will help me through those parts where only my vision can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I will ask that of myself, but not of them. There is nothing in it for them, and a negative return for me.

But the doubt can just be me being immature. I can let my inner child out, sometimes. He only wants what he wants. He doesn't care about others as much as the more together me, the grownup does. He has doubts. I don't. It can be too easy to give up on your fellow man.

[Newfie]

Evil,

That “inner child” is responsible for most of what any of us say/do/want. At best we have only very limited ability to moderated that drive. At worst it is let run amuck.

I fear that where we are in America, if not Western Civilization, is that it has become unfashionable to control the inner child. When the child's wants are not immediately met then it throws a tantrum.

This would account for a lot of the political extremism, protests, riots, and spending proposals we see.

[rangerone314]

With 2021, prices are high as hell for decent food.

From what I am seeing, where I am, this country just keeps getting poorer (and fatter).

Nonsense.

One datapoint from a biased internet commenter doesn't make valid statistical information.

There are plenty of statistics on overall inflation. It's higher than we're used to over the past couple of decades, but it's not that bad. As usual, more whining than big problem.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

Both the summary tab and the forecast tab tell the tale re 2021 inflation, and the inflation forecast.

If you want to see nonsensical inflation conspiracy data, just look at shadowstats. Anyone with a third grade math education can see that what they claim over time re inflation makes NO sense re real world data.

I get fresh food from my nearby Kroger every week or two -- meat and fruits and vegetables. Like the inflation data, prices have risen some, but not dramatically. Same for the places I get take-out during the pandemic.

Looking at futures prices generally, lots are going down significantly as well as up. Especially in lots of foods.

And the other side, which you don't mention, is wages have been rising significantly since the pandemic. The median US household income is up as usual in 2021, having fell a bit in 2020, due to the pandemic.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... e-by-state

https://www.census.gov/library/publicat ... 0-273.html

https://www.vox.com/22600143/poverty-us ... lus-checks


Significantly higher wages and somewhat higher prices doesn't translate into much higher poverty in the real world.

But I know, your ilk has fast crash doom to sell, as always.

Are we talking higher mean wages or higher median wages?

[mousepad]

There are plenty of statistics on overall inflation. It's higher than we're used to over the past couple of decades, but it's not that bad.

Just received an updated quote from the wafer fab in my email. The fab increases prices by 20% for future delivery. 20% is pretty bad.

[noobtube]

[careinke]

Interesting graphic, thanks. I bet a graphic following type 2 Diabetes, would be remarkably correlated. I wonder why they chose a 5' 4" standard? seems a little short.

PEACE

[Tanada]

Interesting graphic, thanks. I bet a graphic following type 2 Diabetes, would be remarkably correlated. I wonder why they chose a 5' 4" standard? seems a little short.

PEACE

The height standard is an attempt to avoid the childhood obesity epidemic clouding the numbers and making them even worse. The sad reality is sugar either the granulated table or the high fructose corn syrup causes obesity as a first stage and Type 2Diabetes as a second stage effect. The UN has hard recommendations for the allowable intake for adults both male and female size and the American processed food diet is something like 10* the recommended safe level. This ti me is the great shame of the FDA which is mandated the task of ensuring food is healthy for consumers and which has utterly failed in this respect.

https://www.who.int/news/item/04-03-201 ... d-children

https://robertlustig.com/sugar-the-bitter-truth/

[Outcast_Searcher]

There are plenty of statistics on overall inflation. It's higher than we're used to over the past couple of decades, but it's not that bad.

Just received an updated quote from the wafer fab in my email. The fab increases prices by 20% for future delivery. 20% is pretty bad.

When an objective broad measurement like the CPI is near 20%, be sure and get back to us.

Meanwhile, re an overall trend, inflation is decreasing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gros ... imate.html

Core personal consumption expenditures, which exclude food and energy and are the preferred gauge by which the Fed measures inflation, rose 4.5%, a deceleration from the second quarter’s 6.1% increase but still well above the pre-Covid pace. The headline PCE price index increased 5.3% in Q3, down from 6.5% in the previous period.

[evilgenius]

I think all of this is taking place against the backdrop of understanding that the Fed will raise rates, in about a year or so. Meanwhile, they are tapering back on the use of many of the mechanisms they have used other than rates. They are not focused on supply. Neither did they focus on that, when they raised rates under Volker. They let the lack of money speak to resultant high prices, not policy.

What I wonder about is whether the additional tools are up to the task of massaging a goldilocks outcome before rates go up? Can they avoid a rate raising cycle that doesn't know when to quit? Because we all know how easy it is to forget the old normal, when a new normal comes along. The forces of anarchy and destruction will always argue for more of that, when a little is all that is needed.

What does this struggle mean about the economy? Can we shape it so that it naturally has fewer losers, and more winners? What would that look like? You know, that it's likely to have more than one path to the future, and more than one potential future. What place does the concept of equality have in such discussions anyway?

In one such world, wherein equality is strictly enforced, there has actually been placed a lot of fear. It is true that the world the people fear is a terrible one, but they have to make certain assumptions about the dignity of their fellow man that render their fears improbable in outcome.

Christians are not being persecuted simply because women take charge of their bodies. It is when you push it, that all of the lines of demarcation develop. They form of your choosing. When they don't form naturally, some hype group will conjure them, on radio, TV and the internet, coordinated, as if it were synchronicity.

[Pops]

I still believe the current situation is short term result of the pandemic. Savings rates shot up, then spending moved from vacations to durable goods, then housing stock plummeted and home prices exploded, then the rest of the economy blasted off right when business were shuttering. Everything else is simply the result of the perturbed spending patterns

More long term is the decline in energy investment
Even more is the multi-decade borrowing spree in all sectors.
Yearly debt increases, public, private, corporate, are greater than economic expansion.
One more time: debt growth has outpaced GDP growth for 40 years.
There is no actual growth, it is all borrowed.
That is peak economy. The era of diminishing returns that coincided perfectly with the US peak and global oil prepricing.

That's my theory and I'm sticking to it!

.

[evilgenius]

I still believe the current situation is short term result of the pandemic. Savings rates shot up, then spending moved from vacations to durable goods, then housing stock plummeted and home prices exploded, then the rest of the economy blasted off right when business were shuttering. Everything else is simply the result of the perturbed spending patterns

More long term is the decline in energy investment
Even more is the multi-decade borrowing spree in all sectors.
Yearly debt increases, public, private, corporate, are greater than economic expansion.
One more time: debt growth has outpaced GDP growth for 40 years.
There is no actual growth, it is all borrowed.
That is peak economy. The era of diminishing returns that coincided perfectly with the US peak and global oil prepricing.

That's my theory and I'm sticking to it!

.

You mean, so the patterns in the markets are more like vibrations? What role is there, then, for our own initiative? This sounds like quantum physics, in a good way. It shows us something of our complexity, and how we can lose track of that Emersonian vision sometimes, while, at other times, grasping full well, even unto paralysis, what it all means.

[Pops]

You mean, so the patterns in the markets are more like vibrations?

hmmmm, I think "market patterns" are just random doodles of the magic hand.

What role is there, then, for our own initiative? This sounds like quantum physics, in a good way. It shows us something of our complexity, and how we can lose track of that Emersonian vision sometimes, while, at other times, grasping full well, even unto paralysis, what it all means.

I don't know about all that but it seems to me that just as there are primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy there are likewise and comparable phases of economic development or evolution. First comes extraction, then comes industry, finally comes "services." We are in the phase of capitalism where easy profits from extraction are difficult. Efficiency and global labor arbitrage have forced larger and larger monopolies in manufacturing actual goods. The final frontier is then that of so-called services, gambling on markets, loansharking, protection rackets, etc.

Personal initiative is still possible, just as long as you don't expect class mobility to be result.

[evilgenius]

So, as an advanced economy, we face other economies in what fashion? Do we always compete?

David Ricardo, I think, is the one who suggested the importance of trade between partners who each had something they did well, that the other didn't, that sort of thing. Then, the whole world can, theoretically, at least, self-assemble according to markets.

That doesn't work so well, when the actors participating in the markets are not doing so in good faith. There was some ambiguity as to how to treat the Chinese, for instance, going forward, from before the pandemic. The Democrats were against it, allowing the sort of questioning that brings forth that ambiguity, then, but seem in favor of it, now.

But, now, the Chinese are uncertain where to place their investments. Do they emphasize Europe more? Is America succumbing to some brain disease? Is it ever a good idea to mess with the sort of success we have had with the Chinese, just to have a sort of pissing contest with them?

Yeah, right when we could really use the supply chain not to crumple, the @&%*ing thing.

And that's only one example of how things are messed up, now that the old order is being called into question, in a world where we all have the internet.

The thing that various group's complaints are based upon, their marginalization, is, in this view, largely a construction of how a given home economy's sense of self-reliance is elevated, or not. There would be a lot of reticence to develop in a whole new direction, if certain guarantees weren't seen to be in place. By this, I mean guarantees in the culture. People need to feel loved, even if they are being stripped of their dignity.

And by putting it that way, I suggest it is absurd to say that it applies to right wing panic. They are not actually being stripped of their dignity, but they do perceive they are.

It doesn't seem to me that getting too tough with those people is likely to bring about a good outcome. I have described the anti-vaxxers as being like a work place shooter, in the moments before he decides to make that fateful decision. They don't need to be encouraged, when what is really going on is that we don't need what they used to do anymore. They are jealous because, in Ricardo's world, what they do is being done by someone overseas. What they probably need is better leadership, to give them a better sense of purpose.

The extreme position on both sides is out of whack. Neither side is about supplying that sort of vision. They are too busy doing that thing that the government always does in those comet going to hit the earth movies, denying that the big fiery ball is coming at us in space. That's what they are doing with automation, at least.