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All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discoveries

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 13:41:29

GHung wrote:My feeling has been that the majors aren't working to find new large conventional sources because they don't think there are any, at least none that can pay. Easier, and currently more profitable, to scrounge what they can from known shale plays and increasing EOR of mature fields. I agree that this is short-term planning because, as you say, there don't seem to be any good long-term prospects left.

AKA: NO OTHER PLAN B.


Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd you're not a doomer.

And other energy sources like natural gas, coal, and green don't exist. And transition to green energy over the next few decades, if the worst case scenario re net oil supplies occurs, is impossible.

Please, do tell us more of your wisdom.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby GHung » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 13:53:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Please, do tell us more of your wisdom.


OK. It's unwise, and makes you look foolish, to continuously read more into other peoples' comments than is actually there; something you like to do as if no one is on to your tactics. My comment was about declining major oil discoveries. Nothing more.

Implying anything else is damned dishonest. Seems to come naturally for you.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 19:02:46

When I started at Mobil Oil in 1975 there was a bit of a panic re finding new major oil discoveries. Of course, IMHO, Mobil Oil was probably the most inept of the Big Oils. Why it is no longer Mobil Oil but ExxonMobil. It was in the 70's/80's that Big Oil pushed harder and harder overseas. Only two big exploration plays left in the US: the offshore shelf (less the 600' water depth) which was fairly well explored of major oil fields by 1982 and the Deep Water GOM.

If you look at Big Oil's positions in the shale plays they were primarily reserves acquisitions and not major exploration/development plays. The only really big oil reserve acquisitions left for Big Oil in the US are corporate takeovers. Which has already been underway for about 20 years. And big overseas exploration projects are being hampered by the national oil companies as well as competition from foreign Big Oils.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby dbruning » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 19:48:34

16 out of 43 posts are derogatory towards each other.

I'm taking a page from Ibon I think. This place has become a bunch of monkeys throwing poop at each other rather than what it used to be.

I've had it. Incredibly sad, I used to love this place but it's time for me to find something different I guess.

The toxicity will eventually destroy this place.

Even the "volunteer" appointed by the forum administrators seems more interested in stirring up conflict and insulting the posters than anything else.

As a side note since I'm leaving anyhow, AdamB - your attitude is terrible. Your tone is insulting to the point that when I refreshed the "new posts" section and saw you were the most recent poster in nearly everything I actually groaned out loud. Your data "might" be compelling, but the manner you use while engaged in debate is a complete turn off and I suspect you lose any chance of convincing people simply with how you are choosing to write. It's so confrontational and derogatory that I kind of wonder what the actual goal of the debate is... I'll stop there.

Oh no. I'm off topic. And no longer care.

However, I wish all of you the best. Truly. And thank you for the time I have spent here...nearly everyday for so long I have appreciated this place.

So many different personalities and opinions. It was wonderful to be able to see them without the attacking that is pervasive throughout the forums now.

I'm rambling. I dislike what I am doing, but if you don't enjoy something, why keep doing it?

Peace.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 06:04:39

AdamB wrote:Ron Patterson! Yet another TOD reject, predictor of peak oil in 2015 himself I believe? I wish peak oil would happens sometimes, say in 2020 right on Tony Seba's schedule, so that ONE of these kick the can specialists could scream "I DID IT!! I PREDICTED PEAK OIL!!!" and then the rest of us could pin a medal on him, buy him a drink, and then call up an autonomous car and EV home from party, just to get it OVER with already. Otherwise these chowderheads are just going to keep DOING this forever! Or at least through another couple peak oils, which could still take the better part of a century!

So is it your position then that there will not be a peak oil, or peak all liquids. or peak fossil fuels anytime this century?
We should be so lucky.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 20:42:34

dbruning wrote:16 out of 43 posts are derogatory towards each other.

I'm taking a page from Ibon I think. This place has become a bunch of monkeys throwing poop at each other rather than what it used to be.


And what might that have been? Folks of a similar religious bent, are nodding in synchronized harmony to claims of doom from beat cops, unemployed ambulance chasers, or banning those who disagreed with the required herd think? I find the new place refreshing if only in ceasing the mod enforced requirement of herd think. And if the tables are turned on those still sitting in the pews reciting the dogma of doom, well, turn about is fair play.

Better yet? Maybe when the next peak oil happens, the zealots won't be so quick to forget what happened the last couple of peak oils they fell for?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 20:48:19

GHung wrote:My feeling has been that the majors aren't working to find new large conventional sources because they don't think there are any, at least none that can pay. Easier, and currently more profitable, to scrounge what they can from known shale plays and increasing EOR of mature fields. I agree that this is short-term planning because, as you say, there don't seem to be any good long-term prospects left.

AKA: NO OTHER PLAN B.


You appear to have missed the Plan B showing up right at your local Chevy dealer.

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 21:48:47

Use the ignore function.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 15:52:01

ralfy wrote:Use the ignore function.


Some people feel discomfort when confronted with any idea not of their own formulation. You can break free of your LATOCian roots Ralfy, I believe in you!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 12:15:46

What does the inflection point of a peak oil curve look like to those who can only see the extent of the curve traced through the distance of the inflection point? Isn't it indistinguishable from normality, a flat line? And if the dynamics of the overall curve take place over hundreds of years how long before the inflection point changes? It seems to me it could take decades. I believe we have already hit peak oil. I just don't expect a cliff. My biggest question is whether this will be like peak whale oil, or if there won't be anything to take oil's place. I used to feel a lot more doom because I could see the end of oil and lamented how those I saw around me couldn't. I figured that was a recipe for disaster, as it takes time to develop what will come after oil. There could be a big fusion breakthrough, like coal and gas for lamps were to whale oil, or oil to coal and electricity to gas, that changes everything, but it looks more like the solution this time will come from a cooperative effort amongst many solutions. For that to happen people need to be aware. The transition has to be managed, and people have to do the managing. I still have doom, I doubt people as much as I doubt myself, but because more people have shown they are aware I don't have nearly so much of it.
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Why Canada Is The Next Frontier For Shale Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 22:02:21


The revolution in U.S. shale oil has battered Canada's energy industry in recent years, ending two decades of rapid expansion and job creation in the nation's vast oil sands. Now Canada is looking to its own shale fields to repair the economic damage. Canadian producers and global oil majors are increasingly exploring the Duvernay and Montney formations, which they say could rival the most prolific U.S. shale fields. Canada is the first country outside the United States to see large-scale development of shale resources, which already account for 8 percent of total Canadian oil output. China, Russia and Argentina also have ample shale reserves but have yet to overcome the obstacles to full commercial development. Canada, by contrast, offers many of the same advantages that allowed oil firms to launch the shale revolution in the United States: numerous private energy firms with appetite for


Why Canada Is The Next Frontier For Shale Oil
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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