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All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discoveries

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 15:20:24

China has become the world’s third-largest shale gas producer, after only the U.S. and Canada, Iran’s PressTV reports, adding that last year, China pumped almost 8 billion cubic meters of shale gas.


What color are your eyes, because as usual you are full of it. Gas is not oil! If you can't tell the difference you need to specialize in something else; like underwater basket weaving. China produces a lot of gas from shale, but almost no oil. Ever wonder why? Shale gas is cheaper than $120 coal, but shale oil is more expensive than about anything. Shale oil is an energy zero commodity.

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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 15:30:40

shortonoil wrote: Shale oil is an energy zero commodity.

Yeah, that's why it's produced -- because we don't get any useful energy from it. :roll:

Meanwhile with WTI apparently ending the year on a high, over $60, your ETP theory is looking more and more like a "zero brain" theory.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 16:22:15

What color are your eyes, because as usual you are full of it. Gas is not oil! If you can't tell the difference you need to specialize in something else; like underwater basket weaving. China produces a lot of gas from shale, but almost no oil. Ever wonder why? Shale gas is cheaper than $120 coal, but shale oil is more expensive than about anything. Shale oil is an energy zero commodity


You truly are as thick as they come. Either you don’t realize what you wrote or you didn’t understand what you were referencing.

You referenced comments about “shale resources” in Poland. That is shale gas with some liquids, not oil

And here is exactly what you said

Even the Chinese, that have huge shale deposits, aren't developing them, and cash is in no short supply for them


At what point did you say oil from shale or even shale liquids? You didn’t, you said the Chinese were not developing their shale deposits which they clearly are. Then when caught out in the lie you immediately try to convince us that you were talking about oil from shale, which you weren't.

The Chinese are developing shale gas because the entire basin was buried beyond the liquids window.The thermal maturity is in the range of 2 - 3% (gas cracking occurs at 1%). The "huge shale deposits" in China you talked about are all gas. The contradictions in your arguments, as usual, are mind-boggling.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 16:27:21

GHung wrote:Yet another obnoxious juvenile gif posted by someone who expects to be taken seriously. Really?
Even my 8 year old grandson has moved beyond his attention-seeking phase.


I went to my ser control panel and shut off all embedded images last New Years. On those rare occasions somene actuall posts a grah I click the link the system puts in the message and Voile’ I see the graph they are talking about. I do not mss seeing the political memes ar the irrirating animated gifs at all, in fact I enjoy this place a lot more now. Everyone should try it.

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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 18:13:58

Well it looks like some of the rest of the world is waking up to the
" Net Energy Cliff". Enjoy the view
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... chool.html
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby GHung » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 18:18:38

Subjectivist wrote:
GHung wrote:Yet another obnoxious juvenile gif posted by someone who expects to be taken seriously. Really?
Even my 8 year old grandson has moved beyond his attention-seeking phase.


I went to my ser control panel and shut off all embedded images last New Years. On those rare occasions somene actuall posts a grah I click the link the system puts in the message and Voile’ I see the graph they are talking about. I do not mss seeing the political memes ar the irrirating animated gifs at all, in fact I enjoy this place a lot more now. Everyone should try it.

USER CONTROL PANEL——-BOARD PREFERENCES———EDIT DISPLAY OPTIONS———
DISPLAY IMAGES WTHIN POSTS YES/NO

Click NO and enjoy the vsual peace.


Thanks, Sub. I figured there was peace some way, and the silliness has become pretty intolerable lately.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 09:35:46

GHung wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:
GHung wrote:Yet another obnoxious juvenile gif posted by someone who expects to be taken seriously. Really?
Even my 8 year old grandson has moved beyond his attention-seeking phase.


I went to my ser control panel and shut off all embedded images last New Years. On those rare occasions somene actuall posts a grah I click the link the system puts in the message and Voile’ I see the graph they are talking about. I do not mss seeing the political memes ar the irrirating animated gifs at all, in fact I enjoy this place a lot more now. Everyone should try it.

USER CONTROL PANEL——-BOARD PREFERENCES———EDIT DISPLAY OPTIONS———
DISPLAY IMAGES WTHIN POSTS YES/NO

Click NO and enjoy the vsual peace.


Thanks, Sub. I figured there was peace some way, and the silliness has become pretty intolerable lately.


You guys are lucky as Moderator's and Admin's some of us can not use the image blocking feature or the foe list features because we need to be aware of everything posted. Otherwise unscrupulous persons would post things that would put Peak Oil dot Com in a bad light without us knowing and acting on it until someone flagged the offending message. Flags do help, they all get reviewed and have to be cleared or they pop up every time a staff member visits the site. Other than the graphs nearly every image posted on here seems to be a political cartoon or meme or some attempt to troll another member. Kind of sad really, you all have a world wide resource and audience of lurkers and that is how you choose to express yourselves? We have a humor thread for that you know?
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 11:20:19

shortonoil wrote:
China has become the world’s third-largest shale gas producer, after only the U.S. and Canada, Iran’s PressTV reports, adding that last year, China pumped almost 8 billion cubic meters of shale gas.


What color are your eyes, because as usual you are full of it. Gas is not oil!


How would you know? Your lack of experience with the most basic precepts of geology, petroleum geology or petroleum engineering has led you to say things that are just flat out silly, so I'm not even sure you understand basic differences between fluids, let alone insitu and standard condition phase behavior issues.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:13:51

And if the Russians succeed in developing Bazenhov, enormous amounts of oil might flow from this resource.
Exxon has been pushing to partner up and share their expertise.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:34:31

rockdoc123 wrote:
The biggest, and perhaps most important, thing to look out for would probably be debt. The efficiency of how a company runs its operations might show up in how much debt a company keeps.


Debt in the oil and gas industry has always been viewed differently than other industries. The reason is that most companies are seen to be growth engines, fewer are there with a mandate to stay flat and deliver stable dividends. Because the oil and gas industry is capital intensive (it requires a steady reinvestment of cash flow in order to keep growing) coupled with the competitiveness (many companies chasing the same plays) and need to grow as fast as possible debt is an attractive enabler. Generally, companies are measured by a number of metrics that incorporate debt in the equation, one of them is debt to enterprise value, another is debt to EBITDA, debt to reserves etc. When does debt get out of hand? When the carrying charges start to get high enough that it impedes reinvestment of capital in the business. A number of companies hit that level in 2015 and were either bought by other companies or instead renegotiated terms with lenders.

Yeah, I should have said something in reference to companies which operate outside of industry norms when it comes to debt. Those would turn up from looking at financial information. That would also keep track, because companies assume debt when they get taken over, of leveraged situations used to purchase companies in the first place. Anything, really, that could serve to either grow the debt or the cost of servicing the debt to such levels as to bring into question the further operation of the firm. I don't know how easy it would be to spot an industry wide trend that brought in some kind of shaky financing which could go south on them in some similar way, but was stable outside of a triggering, price spike one way or the other, event. Leveraged buyouts can be like that, but they can just as easily siphon funds from investment in keeping up with marketing trends, resulting in an eventual anachronism of a company. I think those kinds of things would mostly show up when various stresses hit, than could be easily perceived from looking at the books. There would be so much work that had to be done beyond what a weekend investor can do.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 18:50:18

How would you know?


With an IQ of 36 it is not surprising that you can't figure out why your dog moves out every time you eat beans. So, you are telling us that you don't know the difference between gas and oil. Ask your dog.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 20:12:58

shortonoil wrote:With an IQ of 36 it is not surprising that you can't figure out...


I bet he as least knows there's no 'e' at the end of Santa Claus.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 20:28:36

shortonoil wrote:
How would you know?


With an IQ of 36 it is not surprising that you can't figure out why your dog moves out every time you eat beans. So, you are telling us that you don't know the difference between gas and oil. Ask your dog.


Thank you for proving that you aren't even willing to defend the obvious...because you can't. You didn't do proper due diligence, and you don't have what it takes to admit it. First rule of science (not that anyone ever taught this to you) is when folks find your screwups, you fix them, you don't whine and change goal posts and bitch about how unfair it is that you couldn't be bothered to do it right because it was so HARD and all.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 20:30:49

asg70 wrote:
shortonoil wrote:With an IQ of 36 it is not surprising that you can't figure out...


I bet he as least knows there's no 'e' at the end of Santa Claus.


And I can spot a spurious relationship from a mile away. In the case of the etp, the time can be measured in seconds.
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US Shale Can’t Offset Record-Low Oil Discoveries

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 17:24:26


The U.S. shale resurgence has been one of the main themes in oil markets this year, while OPEC’s production cut deal to deplete the oil overhang and boost oil prices has been the other key development in 2017. U.S. shale production is expected to grow over the next few years as the companies that survived the worst of the downturn showed resilience in the face of the lower-for-longer oil prices. But three years of low oil prices also led to the global oil industry slashing investments in conventional oil exploration, and deferring or revisiting development plans. This has led to the lowest ever volumes of oil discoveries in 2017, Rystad Energy said last week. While the low level of discoveries is not an immediate threat to global oil supply, it could become such ten years down the road, according to Rystad Energy. In


US Shale Can’t Offset Record-Low Oil Discoveries
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 17:27:20

Ron Patterson! Yet another TOD reject, predictor of peak oil in 2015 himself I believe? I wish peak oil would happens sometimes, say in 2020 right on Tony Seba's schedule, so that ONE of these kick the can specialists could scream "I DID IT!! I PREDICTED PEAK OIL!!!" and then the rest of us could pin a medal on him, buy him a drink, and then call up an autonomous car and EV home from party, just to get it OVER with already. Otherwise these chowderheads are just going to keep DOING this forever! Or at least through another couple peak oils, which could still take the better part of a century!
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 19:05:16

AdamB wrote:Ron Patterson! Yet another TOD reject, predictor of peak oil in 2015 himself I believe? I wish peak oil would happens sometimes, say in 2020 right on Tony Seba's schedule, so that ONE of these kick the can specialists could scream "I DID IT!! I PREDICTED PEAK OIL!!!" and then the rest of us could pin a medal on him, buy him a drink, and then call up an autonomous car and EV home from party, just to get it OVER with already. Otherwise these chowderheads are just going to keep DOING this forever! Or at least through another couple peak oils, which could still take the better part of a century!

1). It's still good entertainment value to watch them squirm to make stuff up, cite random doomer blog number 37, etc., to try to support the newest in zerohedge style nonsense.

2). For people able to observe objective reality and make sense of trends, it's nice to know that there are alternatives to total doom if oil truly peaks. Like using a PHEV or EV, or even driving an efficient ICE and planning to drive only as necessary. Or using solar or wind, etc. etc.

The clueless will apparently "be with us always", just as the poor, so no sense getting too worked up about it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US Shale Can’t Offset Record-Low Oil Discoveries

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 05:02:44

AdamB wrote:

The U.S. shale resurgence has been one of the main themes in oil markets this year, while OPEC’s production cut deal to deplete the oil overhang and boost oil prices has been the other key development in 2017. U.S. shale production is expected to grow over the next few years as the companies that survived the worst of the downturn showed resilience in the face of the lower-for-longer oil prices. But three years of low oil prices also led to the global oil industry slashing investments in conventional oil exploration, and deferring or revisiting development plans. This has led to the lowest ever volumes of oil discoveries in 2017, Rystad Energy said last week. While the low level of discoveries is not an immediate threat to global oil supply, it could become such ten years down the road, according to Rystad Energy. In


US Shale Can’t Offset Record-Low Oil Discoveries


Edward Jones Financial Planners are totally sold on the shale fixes everything story and I see this as somewhat painting the oil industry into a corner. There simply havn't been much funds spent for exploration during the glut. This pattern has repeated umpteen times through the history of the oil industry so nobody should be surprised by this happening. However this time the financial industry appears convinced fracking can ramp up overnight to any arbitrary rate needed to match demand in a still growing world economy.

This means IMO that the financial institutions are willing to pour some more funds into fracking as world prices rise, but will still actively discourage oil majors from doing large exploration and development projects when those funds could flow back out as dividends to the shareholder which include those same financial institutions.

IOW they are at the moment betting everything on Fracking as the solution to the oil supply for the foreseeable future. So long as Fracking satisfies world demand growth and continues to offset conventional field depletion this will work out OK. However if Fracking stalls out from lack of resources which could mean drillable leases, formation exhaustion or financial shortfalls, there is no plan B. Deep water exploration and development is not something that can go from zero to rapid deployment, the lead times are on the scale of a decade. By the same token the remaining unfound conventional oil unless it is discovered in a place that already has connections to the distribution system will take 3 to 9 years to bring online the same way Fracking the Bakken did. There was not enough rail and effectively no pipeline capacity when the Bakken boom began so it took years to ramp up in lock step with transportation infrastructure.

It doesn't do a lot of good to complete a well in the middle of nowhere that lacks decent roads, railroads or pipelines to transport the oil as it is produced. Discover a field that is as productive as all of Kuwait under the bottom of Lake Michigan and you will need years of work to be able to exploit that oil effectively no matter how many billions of barrels are there.
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Re: All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discover

Unread postby GHung » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 10:12:50

My feeling has been that the majors aren't working to find new large conventional sources because they don't think there are any, at least none that can pay. Easier, and currently more profitable, to scrounge what they can from known shale plays and increasing EOR of mature fields. I agree that this is short-term planning because, as you say, there don't seem to be any good long-term prospects left.

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