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4.5% Decline

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

4.5% Decline

Unread postby black rain » Wed 17 Nov 2010, 07:01:44

Some Calculations...........
A conservative estimate of current production is 80 million barrels per day
= 30 billion per year
Average oilfield decline rate = 4.5%
= 1.2 billion barrels less than the previous year

So how much energy loss is this?
1 barrel of oil = 1.7 MWh
so 1.2 billion barrels = 2.04 bilion MWh = 2.04 million GWh

in 2007, the total energy generated by ALL the coal fired power on earth
= 8.3 million GWh (wikipedia quoted)

So it can be said that a year's decline of oil is equivalent to 1/4 of the world's coal fired generators going offline........................shocking
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Re: 4.5% Decline

Unread postby Pops » Wed 17 Nov 2010, 09:35:43

You posted this 5 times, we get the idea.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 4.5% Decline

Unread postby KingM » Wed 17 Nov 2010, 09:56:21

There's something off in your numbers. Coal was 27% of total global energy consumption last year, vs. 33% for oil. Removing a quarter of coal's energy contribution would be the equivalent of a 20% decline in oil, which is over four times the actual decline you cited.

Furthermore, overall oil production is not declining at 4.5% per year. As we reach peak, individual fields may decline at this rate, to be offset by a smaller and smaller number from new projects. In the meanwhile, coal is actually increasing as a percent of the overall energy mix, year by year, as are other sources.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis; the world is awash in energy. Peak oil is a liquid fuel crisis.
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