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3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

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3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 06:29:27

In a statement to the Stock Exchange, the company said reports from US-based consultants indicate underlying rock formations "are rich in oil and gas-prone kerogen".

The company says up to 233 billion barrels of oil are estimated to be trapped in the shale.

Chief executive Peter Bond says even if the amount of retrievable oil is well below that, the discovery is still "bigger than the Cooper Basin and Bass Strait combined".

"If you stress test it right down and you only took the very sweetest spots in the absolute known areas and you do nothing else, it's about 3.5 billion [barrels] and that's sort of worse-case scenario," he said.


Maybe, with a huge spread and fracking...

So if you took the 233 billion [barrels] well, you're talking Saudi Arabia numbers. It's massive, it's just huge.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-24/m ... sa/4481982
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 07:37:42

Funny how close the numbers are to the Bakken. Pumped by the gurning enthusiasts as a 'new Suadi Arabia' now down to being about 3billion barrel recoverable.

Not a lot of water in Coober Pedy. Not a lot for miles around except dust, hobbit holes, dynamite and noodling for opals. Good luck getting water out of the Murray-Darling.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 08:20:52

It looks that way. However, the Great Artesian Basin is very near and has mega water at depths of 60-400 meters. Expensive water, but it's there. There will be a shit storm over this for sure in coming days. Fears over the GAB's long term health have held back major mining in central Australia for many years.Image
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby peripato » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 09:44:30

I think this is just shale oil, not tight oil. Notice the reference to the term *kerogen*. Sounds like a complete beat up.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 11:51:13

No it is not "shale oil" in the mineable kerogen sense. They are talking about liquids from shale, similar to EagleFord, Bakken etc.

If you go to their website it is pretty clear the journalist is hyping the news, not the company. They point out that this is Prospective Resource which means it hasn't been discovered as yet. The following quotes from the third party Resource Audit available on their website says it all:

The prospective resources estimated herein are those quantities of petroleum that are potentially recoverable from accumulations yet to be discovered.


A possibility exists that the prospects will not result in successful discoveries and development, in which case there could be no future revenue. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources estimated herein will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources evaluated.


So basically it is interesting at this point but requires at least a few wells which have been fracced and can demonstrate economic flow rates given existing infrastructure constraints. My understanding is there have been two recent wells drilled where samples were collected and rock properties measured to compare against North American analogs. This sort of work doesn't really prove much other than it is worth trying a frac to see what the results are.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 12:33:05

Once again, Australia shows why it is nicknamed "The Lucky Country."

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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby peripato » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 18:34:32

rockdoc123 wrote:No it is not "shale oil" in the mineable kerogen sense. They are talking about liquids from shale, similar to EagleFord, Bakken etc.

If you go to their website it is pretty clear the journalist is hyping the news, not the company. They point out that this is Prospective Resource which means it hasn't been discovered as yet. The following quotes from the third party Resource Audit available on their website says it all:

The prospective resources estimated herein are those quantities of petroleum that are potentially recoverable from accumulations yet to be discovered.


A possibility exists that the prospects will not result in successful discoveries and development, in which case there could be no future revenue. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources estimated herein will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources evaluated.


So basically it is interesting at this point but requires at least a few wells which have been fracced and can demonstrate economic flow rates given existing infrastructure constraints. My understanding is there have been two recent wells drilled where samples were collected and rock properties measured to compare against North American analogs. This sort of work doesn't really prove much other than it is worth trying a frac to see what the results are.

Mineable kerogen? Isn't that like that Green River stuff? Anyway, still sounds like a puff piece to me. Linc (the miner) is notorious for this sort of rubbish.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 18:51:51

Mineable kerogen? Isn't that like that Green River stuff? Anyway, still sounds like a puff piece to me. Linc (the miner) is notorious for this sort of rubbish.


yes, but this isn't like that. Mineable kerogen that in the past was referred to a oil shale requires surface mining and then a heating process to release hydrocarbons. Shale oil, on the other hand is oil that sits in the pore spaces of shales where porosity (storage capacity) may be high but permeability is very, very small (nano darcies versus say the Jurassic reservoirs in Saudi Arabia that can be up to a Darcy). As a consequence as the organic material in the shale matures hydrocarbons form but because permeability is so low they are also sealed from migration. Hence by fraccing the shale you create a permeable pathway for those hydrocarbons to flow.

As I said the piece is fluff almost certainly due to the journalist who wrote it not being aware of the nuances. Linc's website has fairly full disclosure and it is quite apparent that nothing has been discovered in the sense that word is used by the reserve auditors. The definition from the guidelines is:

Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimate, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects.

In dealing with the uncertainty of prospective resources the auditor first assesses the chance of discovery and then the chance of a discovery being economic. So in the case of a 200 billion barrel unrisked OIP number you might have say a 30% chance of discovery and a 50% chance of that discovery being economic in a reasonable time frame and a recovery factor of somewhere south of 10%. So 0.3 * 0.5 * 0.1 * 200 = 3 billion barrels risked reserve over a very large area.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby peripato » Thu 24 Jan 2013, 19:09:10

rockdoc123 wrote:
Mineable kerogen? Isn't that like that Green River stuff? Anyway, still sounds like a puff piece to me. Linc (the miner) is notorious for this sort of rubbish.


yes, but this isn't like that. Mineable kerogen that in the past was referred to a oil shale requires surface mining and then a heating process to release hydrocarbons. Shale oil, on the other hand is oil that sits in the pore spaces of shales where porosity (storage capacity) may be high but permeability is very, very small (nano darcies versus say the Jurassic reservoirs in Saudi Arabia that can be up to a Darcy). As a consequence as the organic material in the shale matures hydrocarbons form but because permeability is so low they are also sealed from migration. Hence by fraccing the shale you create a permeable pathway for those hydrocarbons to flow.

As I said the piece is fluff almost certainly due to the journalist who wrote it not being aware of the nuances. Linc's website has fairly full disclosure and it is quite apparent that nothing has been discovered in the sense that word is used by the reserve auditors. The definition from the guidelines is:

Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimate, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects.

In dealing with the uncertainty of prospective resources the auditor first assesses the chance of discovery and then the chance of a discovery being economic. So in the case of a 200 billion barrel unrisked OIP number you might have say a 30% chance of discovery and a 50% chance of that discovery being economic in a reasonable time frame and a recovery factor of somewhere south of 10%. So 0.3 * 0.5 * 0.1 * 200 = 3 billion barrels risked reserve over a very large area.

See, Linc are already backing away from it all. Meanwhile the MD increased his stock stake value by $100 billion.

Classic and very audacious pump and dump...
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 25 Jan 2013, 21:43:05

Strange, because they followed protocol by seeking a trading halt on the ASX prior to the announcement; not warranted seems to be the response- despite having a few announcement halts in recent years.

http://www.lincenergy.com/asx_share_price.php

They got a 30% spike out of this announcement, which seems to have topped already. Perhaps because it's obvious that a $30 million company is not going to develop 30x overnight to do anything about the speculated play. Nothing will happen with this until a major steps in, which there seems no immediate likelihood of.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby Beery1 » Fri 25 Jan 2013, 21:48:05

Plantagenet wrote:Once again, Australia shows why it is nicknamed "The Lucky Country."


I've never heard it called that. 'Vast wasteland', 'The only prison visible from the Moon' - those I've heard. I don't think many Aborigines think it's a lucky country - not since the Europeans arrived anyway.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 25 Jan 2013, 22:00:34

Clearly you have never been here. I think planty arrives in Queensland next month? Australia is a virtual paradise compared to most countries. Having worked with and lived among aboriginal people for a large chunk of my life, I know most would not wish to go back to the 'dreamtime'.
The driest deserts in Australia are teeming with wildlife. We have the lowest population ratio by far for any comparable region and we produce food for 70+ million more people than we accommodate.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby peripato » Sat 26 Jan 2013, 01:16:59

Beery1 wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Once again, Australia shows why it is nicknamed "The Lucky Country."


I've never heard it called that. 'Vast wasteland', 'The only prison visible from the Moon' - those I've heard. I don't think many Aborigines think it's a lucky country - not since the Europeans arrived anyway.

"Australia is a lucky country, run by second-rate people who share its luck."
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 26 Jan 2013, 05:25:51

Horne's 'The Lucky Country' (Source of quote- opening paragraph) was mandatory reading in most states public schools for year 7 students for decades. So the second rate people weren't paranoid. Australia has changed a lot in the last 40 years.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby Beery1 » Sun 27 Jan 2013, 08:23:49

SeaGypsy wrote:Having worked with and lived among aboriginal people for a large chunk of my life, I know most would not wish to go back to the 'dreamtime'.


Maybe so, but how many aborigine prime ministers has Australia had? What's that? None? None at all? Not one?

Yeah, Australia's a real paradise for the aborigine. They don't even have to serve as prime minister - they don't need to worry, the whites have that covered.

When the Commonwealth of Australia came into being, the Commonwealth Constitution stated "in reckoning the numbers of people… Aboriginal natives shall not be counted". It also stated that the Commonwealth would legislate for any race except Aboriginal people. Aboriginal people were excluded from the vote, pensions, employment in post offices, enlistment in armed forces and maternity allowance.

Real equality there. The aborigines had it real good - they didn't even have to vote - no worries, whites would do that for them.

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Anyone who thinks the aborigines have a fair shake in Australian society is living in a fantasy world. Part of the reason Australian independence had such a large following was because Britain was attempting to advance the cause of Aboriginal rights. Australia has always had a problem with racism. Among the former British colonies, Australia came second only to South Africa in its treatment of indigenous people.

And if anyone thinks that's all in the past now, google 'Cameron Doomadgee'.

Australia may be a lucky country, but only for those who happen to be the right color.

That's all I have to say. You can all go back to your 'Rah-rah Australia' session now.
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 27 Jan 2013, 09:29:25

"Rah rah Australia"? This is the Australia discussion forum and you were the one who started the "Rah rah".

The referendum of 27 May 1967 approved two amendments to the Australian constitution relating to Indigenous Australians. Technically it was a vote on the Constitution Alteration (Aboriginal People) 1967, which became law on 10 August 1967 following the results of the referendum. The amendments were overwhelmingly endorsed, winning 90.77 percent of votes cast and carrying in all six states


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian ... boriginals)
Aboriginal title is a common law doctrine that the land rights of indigenous peoples to customary tenure persist after the assumption of sovereignty under settler colonialism. The requirements of proof for the recognition of aboriginal title, the content of aboriginal title, the methods of extinguishing aboriginal title, and the availability of compensation in the case of extinguishment vary significantly by jurisdiction. Nearly all jurisdictions are in agreement that aboriginal title is inalienable, except to the national government, and that it may be held either individually or collectively.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aboriginal_title

Bess Nungarrayi Price is an Aboriginal Australian activist and politician. She is a member of the Country Liberal Party and is currently the Member for Stuart in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly. She lives in Alice Springs in Central Australia.

Price has strongly criticised the high levels of violence in Central Australian indigenous communities and supported the Northern Territory Intervention.[7] In December 2009 she delivered the Bennelong Society's inaugural Peter Howson lecture, also on the topic of indigenous violence, and received the Bennelong Medal[8] She spoke at the Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney, on Mar 23 2011[9] and appeared on Q&A on 11 Apr 2011.[10] Price told Q&A she supported the Intervention on the following grounds:[11]
I am for the intervention because I've seen progress. I've seen women who now have voices. They can speak for themselves and they are standing up for their rights. Children are being fed and young people more or less know how to manage their lives. That's what's happened since the intervention.

Price's public show of support for the Intervention policy instigated by the Howard Government drew criticism from some left-leaning Aboriginal advocates. Legal academic Larissa Behrendt posted an offensive tweet regarding Price in reaction to the Q&A program, leading Price to appear on the front page of The Australian on 14 Apr 2011.[12] In 2012, Price told SBS TV's Insight Program, that mixed heritage Aboriginal-Australians should acknowledge their other heritage "And just not go one way [...] That has to happen here in Australia so we can all be honest and equal with each other and understanding because it creates the division."[13]
In May 2012 and again in August 2012 she criticised Amnesty International for its opposition to the Intervention.[14] Price accused the organisation of ignoring the suffering of women in Central Australia:[15]
"When Aboriginal women in Central Australia ask for help, when they are killed, raped and beaten, when they cry for their abused children, you ignore them and you support those who are oppressing them. When the government tries to do something for them you call them racist and you blather on about the UN."

She will speak in Sydney on Jan 29, 2013, at the launch of Stephanie Jarrett's book, Liberating Aboriginal People from Violence


Image

Eddie Koiki Mabo (c. 29 June 1936 – 21 January 1992[1]) was an Australian man from the Torres Strait Islands known for his role in campaigning for Indigenous land rights and for his role in a landmark decision of the High Court of Australia which overturned the legal doctrine of terra nullius ("land belonging to nothing, no one") which characterised Australian law with regards to land and title.


Image


The Northern Territory National Emergency Response (also referred to as "the intervention") was a package of changes to welfare provision, law enforcement, land tenure and other measures, introduced by the Australian federal government under John Howard in 2007 to address claims of rampant child sexual abuse and neglect in Northern Territory Aboriginal communities. Operation Outreach, the intervention's main logistical operation conducted by a force of 600 soldiers and detachments from the ADF (including NORFORCE) concluded on 21 October 2008.[1]
The package was the Federal government's response to the Territory government's publication of Little Children are Sacred, but implemented only two out of ninety-seven of the report's recommendations. The response has been criticised, but also received bipartisan parliamentary support. The current Prime Minister Julia Gillard has and continues to support the response, though her predecessor Kevin Rudd did make some adjustments to its implementation. The Emergency Response has since been lapsed and is being replaced by the Stronger Futures Policy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_T ... y_Response

Extremely complex issues, which few here really understand.

Some insights from Bess Price' website:

http://jajirdi.com.au/should-customary- ... he-courts/
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby sparky » Mon 28 Jan 2013, 22:16:49

.
The unofficial national hym
" God bless Australia she will always be great
as long as the rest of the world carry the bleedy weight

Aussie ! Aussie ! Aussie ! OI ! OI ! OI !
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Re: 3.5-233 Billion Barrels in Outback Australia???

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 29 Jan 2013, 03:28:40

Or open the gate and learn to smile in an Islamic way.
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