GHung wrote:I'm not sure how useful these apples/oranges comparisons are. A nuclear plant requires a large crew 24/7/365. The medium to large solar installations in my area are monitored remotely and require no on-site personnel. They get cleaned and inspected once or twice a year. I spoke to a couple of guys at a site on a friend's farm last spring and that's all they do; contract to clean and inspect large solar arrays.
To run at near full capacity, nuke plants need complex load balancing schemes or (wait for it) some form of storage like pumped hydro. PV plants can use the same storage. Electrons don't care how they are produced or where they get parked to wait for their chance to do work.
And let's not forget that the cost math for solar and wind are still improving rapidly. It seems like over time, with all the regulations, the math for nuclear gets worse (perhaps largely due to the risk).
Now, you add in battery backup to eliminate the intermittency issue, with the cost math for batteries also greatly improving over time, and it seems like we have a good trend here.
If the math keeps working, the green energy replacement will do the job with no pushing from government over the next 3 to 5 decades. If it doesn't, by then surely even the deniers will see how bad things have gotten re AGW and humanity will see the need to greatly reduce FF's whether it's more expensive or not.
In 3 to 5 decades, we might even get lucky and have workable fission. Then we get to deal with the Jevon's Paradox madness again, no doubt -- though what we SHOULD be doing if that happens is using all that extra energy (at least initially) to rapidly sequester vast amounts of CO2 to mitigate the AGW effects.
As for the ultimate results, my vote would be for humanity mostly screwing it up, over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.