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World’s population to reach 11.2 billion by end of the century

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India is set to overtake China and become the world’s most populous country in less than a decade – six years sooner than previously forecast, the United Nations said on Wednesday.

Fast-growing Nigeria is on course to outstrip the United States by about 2050 to become the country with the third largest population, the United Nations predicted.

The current global population of 7.3 billion is forecast to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, slightly above the last set of U.N. projections.

Most growth will happen in developing regions, particularly Africa, according to the report World Population Prospects.

The demographic forecasts are crucial for designing and implementing the new global development goals being launched later this year to replace the Millennium Development Goals.

John Wilmoth, head of the U.N. population division, said the concentration of growth in the poorest countries would make it harder to eradicate poverty, combat hunger and expand schooling and health systems.

The world’s two largest nations, China and India, have well over 1 billion people each and are likely to switch places by 2022 – six years earlier than previously forecast.

Experts predict Africa will account for more than half the world’s population growth in the next 35 years.

Ten African countries – Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia – are projected to increase their populations five-fold or more by 2100.

Future population growth is highly dependent on the path of future fertility, as relatively small changes in fertility can, projected over decades, generate large differences in total population, the report said.

In recent years, fertility has declined in almost all parts of the world, while life expectancy has increased significantly in the poorest countries, rising from 56 to 62 since the beginning of the century.

Declining fertility and rising life expectancy mean the world is getting greyer, and most regions will have an aging population, starting with Europe where one third of the population is projected to be over 60 by 2050, the report said.

Globally, the number of people aged 80 or over – currently 125 million – is projected to more than triple by 2050 and to increase more than seven times by 2100.

But populations in many regions are still young. In Africa, children under 15 account for two fifths of the population.

“The large number of young people (in Africa) who will reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own, ensures that the region will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades,” the report said.

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33 Comments on "World’s population to reach 11.2 billion by end of the century"

  1. apneaman on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:02 pm 

    11.2 billion by end of the century? Good luck with that. Maybe 11.2 million.
    Where do they come up with this shit? These are supposed to be the smart people? I guess 11.2 billion could happen if we factor out a few simple details – peak oil, soil erosion, ocean acidification, global warming and the 50 unstoppable positive feedback loops, sea level rise, 6th mass extinction, evolving bacteria/loss of antibiotics, mega droughts, Donald Trump, global water depletion, mega forest fires, deforestation, etc and all the ape wars at home and abroad that will result because of these details. As predicted, the magical thinking only increases as the great unraveling speed up.

    And you thought Greece had a problem?

    Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid
    discharge of the earth-space battery foretells
    the future of humankind

  2. Jimmy on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:02 pm 

    Actually it’ll be closer to 1 billion.

  3. BC on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:11 pm

    “Hell is other (too many damn) people.”

  4. apneaman on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:12 pm 

    World failing in fight against antibiotic resistance: WHO

    Read more:

    American Experience 2015 The Forgotten Plague

    By the dawn of the 19th century, the deadliest killer in human history, tuberculosis, had killed one in seven of all the people who had ever lived. The disease struck America with a vengeance, ravaging communities and touching the lives of almost every family. The battle against the deadly bacteria had a profound and lasting impact on the country. It shaped medical and scientific pursuits, social habits, economic development, western expansion, and government policy. Yet both the disease and its impact are poorly understood: in the words of one writer, tuberculosis is our “forgotten plague.”

  5. Plantagenet on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:15 pm 

    India will be the most populous country in the world in a few more decades. It is currently industrializing like crazy and building new coal-fired power plants as fast as it can. And, it wants the same deal on carbon emissions that Obama just gave to China—-no limits on CO2 emissions for decades to come.


  6. Davy on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:25 pm 

    Read this corns if you want to sober up:

  7. idontknowmyself on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:30 pm 

    Hell is others. By observing my own behaviour and other people behaviour, I think we hate each other. Humans hate all human except themself. The amount of hatred for each other is amazing.

  8. apneaman on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:37 pm 

    Disease is our #1 predator. It has killed more apes by far than all wars, murders and natural disasters combined. In a famine, most people do not starve to death, they are weakened become vulnerable and die of disease. Science is already running the red queen on bugs as it is and there is being very little done about it. We also are going to have many new friends that have been lying dormant in the permafrost for at least the last 20,000 years. Bugs we have no immunity too or have lost it. Who knows just what might be there.

    Giant Virus Resurrected from Permafrost After 30,000 Years

  9. Davy on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 8:48 pm 

    This is for you Mak when you get out of bed and start drinking your coffee:

  10. Makati1 on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 10:36 pm 

    Apneaman, you covered it quite well. Thanks.

    One other disease that we forget about is the Black (Bubonic) Plague bacteria (Yersinia pestis) carried by fleas on rats. Few people realize that it still exists. One location is in Texas where is is still common. “The animal reservoir for plague includes mice, camels, chipmunks, prairie dogs, rabbits, and squirrels, but the most dangerous for humans are rats, especially the urban sort. The disease is usually transmitted by the rat flea, Xenopsylla cheopis.”

    I just watched a video of an American who caught it recently. He was barely saved, but he had to be put into a coma which lasted 90 days and he lost both legs. He was lucky. If thousands/millions are infected at one time…game over.

    The 541 plague wiped out 1/2 of Europe’s population and lasted over 100 years. The 1500s plague killed over 25 million in Asia ans Europe. 1855 saw the latest outbreak in China where they finally discovered the cause and the carrier. Since 2000, over 2,000 have been diagnosed with the disease, most in Africa. The latest fear is that the bacteria could be used in biological warfare.

    Yes, 11.5 billion is a joke. If there are 1 million humans left in 2100, the species will be lucky. We are in the last generations of our existence on this planet as living beings. My grandchildren may not even get to live out a normal life span and their kids … who knows?

  11. ghung on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 10:46 pm 

    In other news, Donald Trump admits (s)he’s a bull dyke, trumping Hillary’s tough gal status on several levels.

  12. apneaman on Wed, 29th Jul 2015 11:23 pm 

    Mak, It’s my understanding that a couple of big Pharmaceutical corps are doing some research on new antibiotics and there MAY have been a discovery last winter that could counter the evolution of TB, but there is no profit incentive in antibiotics vs the billions of research dollars it takes with no guarantee vs the guaranteed hundreds of billions for tweaking existing hard-on and happy pills. At this point in my life, when it comes to promises from highly trumpeted scientific breakthroughs, I need to see the product on the shelf and results before I get excited.

  13. Makati1 on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 12:56 am 

    Apneaman, I doubt the efficiency of even the ones claimed to be ‘successful’. Successful at what? Profit making? If they do not kill more people than they cure, is that ‘successful?

    I personally use as few drugs as possible, sticking with the old timers like aspirin for pain and long term products like Vicks vapo-rub for cold symptoms, iodine for cuts, etc. Most common problems will only be cured with rest and time.

    Our bodies have a far better system to fight disease than any manufacturer and it is free. Just live a healthy life style, which is difficult in this over polluted world.

  14. Kenz300 on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 7:04 am 

    Too many people and too few resources.

    Endless population growth leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.

    Wrap it up….. snip it…. having a child that you can not provide for is cruel….

    Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness

  15. Dave on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 7:23 am 

    How does Africa, with or without the world’s help, fix itself? No good answer in the past, none now and perhaps none in the future (imho). It’s a disturbing and dangerous reality.

  16. ERRATA on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 7:30 am 

    1. Beautiful thanks for that:
    a reference to the topic:

    As far as our world is a “Potemkin Village”

    in which the “propaganda of success” hides a grim reality.

    2. I see Population Bomb – The discussion becomes current again

    “… Reach 11.2 billion at the end of the century”
    This growth has not slowed down! (As claimed), and finally, once collides barrier / obstacle, the shortage of energy resources.

    3. I would recommend a thorough / careful reading: !!

    This reading is changing our worldoutlook of carefree, for serious!

  17. Hello on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 8:53 am 

    The saddest thing is that West is hell-bent on importing the 3rd world surplus population.

    Once beautiful Switzerland already looks like a freak show of negros and other assorted 3rd world cave dwellers.

    Where will it end?

  18. BC on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 9:28 am 

    “Once beautiful Switzerland already looks like a freak show of negros and other assorted 3rd world cave dwellers.”

    “Colorful”, “Neanderthal” language. 😀

    “Where will it end?”

    A moratorium on immigration and births?

  19. Makati1 on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 9:42 am 

    Ah, the ignorance of Westerners is most obvious in some of the comments above. The belief that they have a right to live off of the sweat, blood and resources of the rest of the world, but don’t any of them try to move in next door, shows their real prejudices and mindset. Another example of why humans will not last much longer and why the EU is a failed idea.

  20. Apneaman on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 9:50 am 

    Well golly Hello, I think I have to disagree with you about those Negros. I mean from a strictly personal economical outlook my life would be so much harder without them. Can you imagine if we got rid of them and replaced them with westerner wage earners how expensive consumption would be? Just a simple chocolate bar would cost $20 dollars if white folks were picking the cocoa beans (instead of black child slaves) even if they were only making minimum wage. Then there are the rare earth mineral slaves. Imagine if our people were doing that with their fair/living wage demands and sniveling and whining over healthy and a safe working environment(pussies). Fucking iPhone would go up to $3500 overnight if that happened. Then there are the price of clothes to think about – as if I want to pay more than $4 for my new throw away T-shirts and underwear every 3 months, because some cry baby white western sweatshop workers feel that they are entitled to have cooling fans and bathroom breaks during their 14 hour shift at the work house – folks in Bangladesh make no such demands and thus keep me in fresh fast fashion on the cheap (I love em). No if you ask me we should get rid of all the white folk who are an ever increasing drain on my resources and who make no contributions to my life. Like pensioners, the sick and pretty much anyone who does not actually make, build or fix anything. Let’s face it, 80% of the work force in the west is unnecessary – based on a dead mid 20th century model. I don’t need most white people (especially the Swiss), while Negros and other slave labour make my life more comfortable at a price I can afford.

  21. BC on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 9:55 am 

    @apneaman: Curses on you, you pro-Negro, anti-White, anti-labor elitist!!! 😀

  22. Northwest Resident on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 10:34 am 

    Apneaman — I’d say you are in need of an attitude adjustment, except that your attitude seems to already be finely tuned to reality.

  23. James Tipper on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 12:58 pm 

    More beautiful corn porn that ignores the rather obvious reality that it’s not going to happen. I believe it is possible to get to 8 billion but that will be the limit. Humanity has been a nice little experiment, forgotten about in a couple decades. The humans that survive will curse the people.

    Empires are cyclical, I recommend John Glubb’s famous work, “The Fate of Empires” if you want to know more about that. I think though that no empire that comes after America will ever be as grand. This is not for moral reasons but sheer resource reasons, there will be no ability to get here ever again. If we were asked to rebuild all of civilization we could not. And once what we currently have falls apart, it will be gone forever.

    But what else is history, but the greatness of Rome -Petrarch

  24. Apneaman on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 7:33 pm 

    Iran city hits suffocating heat index of 154 degrees, near world record

  25. Davy on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 8:44 pm 

    Amazing read Ape man. I can’t imagin that kind of heat. Last week I was in the garden with high heat and humidity. I think it was 105 heat index. It kicked my ass. Even going into the cool for a cool down was only marginally helpful because of the extremes of cool and hot.

    I know from what I read the Midwest will have high heat indexes in the future. I need to dig a wine cellar in preparation or move to Canada.

  26. Makati1 on Thu, 30th Jul 2015 11:34 pm 

    Apneaman … Right On!

    You see the real picture, and those who put you down don’t or won’t because the realities you described would not allow them to live an ‘exceptional’ lifestyle. They too would be wage slaves. Oops! They already are, or soon will be.

    Their comments only reinforce my observation.

  27. Davy on Fri, 31st Jul 2015 6:03 am 

    Mak, your observations are a personal agenda of resentment and hate that fouls this board up. Don’t you have stuff to do in the jungle? It was so nice when you were gone for a few weeks and we had normal on the board.

  28. Makati1 on Fri, 31st Jul 2015 7:07 am 

    “Will said we were “17th in literacy, 27th in math, 22nd in science.” Friedman/Hertz say we are “17th in reading, 21st in science, and 26th in math.”
    Will said we were “49th in life expectancy.” According to Friedman/Hertz, we’re 42nd, with a life expectancy of 79.5 years, ten fewer than first-place Monaco.
    Will said we were third in median household income. (What? We’re not the richest country in the world?) Friedman/Hertz use a similar measure, median adult wealth, and finds we rank 27th in the world, behind Cyprus (25), Spain (20) and Ireland (18). Number One? Australia.
    Will said we were 178th in infant mortality; today, the CIA ranks us at 169th. Friedman/Hertz look instead at maternal deaths in childbirth, for which we rank 60 of 180 countries. Our maternal mortality has been increasing since 1990, and is more than twice Canada’s rate.
    Friedman/Hertz identify many more categories than did Will McAvoy. For example, 25 countries have lower rates of people in poverty, 35 have proportionately fewer children in poverty. And when it comes to income inequality, the United States is the fourth worst country in the world.
    Will and Friedman/Hertz agree that there are still two areas in which the United States in undisputed number one: it imprisons more of its citizens and spends more on its military than anybody. US prisons hold 2.2 million prisoners of a population of 320 million. China, with nearly five times the population (1.4 billion) imprisons only 1.6 million people. The US spends more on its military than the next eight countries on the list combined.”

  29. Cloud9 on Fri, 31st Jul 2015 7:51 am 

    The old axiom the trend is your friend gives us ample warning of how all of this unwinds. Havoc is released the moment the supply chains break. Social framework is shredded when famine stalks the populace. The die off is inevitable. How do we build life boats?

  30. dashster on Fri, 31st Jul 2015 8:31 am 

    I preferred the good old days of 10 years ago when Population Pollyannas would assure me that the population would peak around 2060 at less than 9 billion and that that would be just fine.

  31. Kenz300 on Fri, 31st Jul 2015 10:52 am 

    The least educated people have the most children…
    The poorest people have the most children………


    The most educated people have the least children……..
    The wealthiest people have the fewest children……………

    Want to be poor…. have more children than you can support…….

    Why have more children than you can provide for and condemn them to a life of poverty, suffering and despair?

  32. Apneaman on Fri, 31st Jul 2015 6:51 pm 

    Calais migrant chaos is a taste of what a warmer world may bring

    The disruption at the Channel Tunnel between the UK and France is one of many migration crises which a warmer world will worsen

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