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Page added on September 4, 2019

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World’s population is projected to nearly stop growing by the end of the century

Enviroment

For the first time in modern history, the world’s population is expected to virtually stop growing by the end of this century, due in large part to falling global fertility rates, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of new data from the United Nations.

By 2100, the world’s population is projected to reach approximately 10.9 billion, with annual growth of less than 0.1% – a steep decline from the current rate. Between 1950 and today, the world’s population grew between 1% and 2% each year, with the number of people rising from 2.5 billion to more than 7.7 billion.

Here are 11 key takeaways from the UN’s “World Population Prospects 2019”:

1Global fertility is falling as the world is agingThe global fertility rate is expected to be 1.9 births per woman by 2100, down from 2.5 today. The rate is projected to fall below the replacement fertility rate (2.1 births per woman) by 2070. The replacement fertility rate is the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population’s size.

2The world’s median age is expected to increase to 42 in 2100, up from the current 31 – and from 24 in 1950. Between 2020 and 2100, the number of people ages 80 and older is expected to increase from 146 million to 881 million. Starting in 2073, there are projected to be more people ages 65 and older than under age 15 – the first time this will be the case. Contributing factors to the rise in the median age are the increase in life expectancy and falling fertility rates.

3Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth for the rest of this century. Between 2020 and 2100, Africa’s population is expected to increase from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion. Projections show these gains will come mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to more than triple in population by 2100. The regions that include the United States and Canada (Northern America) and Australia and New Zealand (Oceania) are projected to grow throughout the rest of the century, too, but at slower rates than Africa. (This analysis uses regional classifications from the UN and may differ from other Pew Research Center reports.)

Population growth in Africa is projected to remain strong throughout this century

4Europe and Latin America are both expected to have declining populations by 2100. Europe’s population is projected to peak at 748 million in 2021. The Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to surpass Europe in population by 2037 before peaking at 768 million in 2058.

5The population of Asia is expected to increase from 4.6 billion in 2020 to 5.3 billion in 2055, then start to decline. China’s population is expected to peak in 2031, while the populations of Japan and South Korea are projected to decline after 2020. India’s population is expected to grow until 2059, when it will reach 1.7 billion. Meanwhile, Indonesia – the most populous country in Southeastern Asia – is projected to reach its peak population in 2067.

6In the Northern America region, migration from the rest of the world is expected to be the primary driver of continued population growth. The immigrant population in the United States is expected to see a net increase of 85 million over the next 80 years (2020 to 2100) according to the UN projections, roughly equal to the total of the next nine highest countries combined. In Canada, migration is likely to be a key driver of growth, as Canadian deaths are expected to outnumber births.

7By 2100, five of the world's 10 largest countries are projected to be in AfricaSix countries are projected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth through the end of this century, and five are in Africa. The global population is expected to grow by about 3.1 billion people between 2020 and 2100. More than half of this increase is projected to come from Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Angola, along with one non-African country (Pakistan). Five African countries are projected to be in the world’s top 10 countries by population by 2100.

8India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2027. Meanwhile, Nigeria will surpass the U.S. as the third-largest country in the world in 2047, according to the projections.

9Between 2020 and 2100, 90 countries are expected to lose population. Two-thirds of all countries and territories in Europe (32 of 48) are expected to lose population by 2100. In Latin America and the Caribbean, half of the region’s 50 countries’ populations are expected to shrink. Between 1950 and 2020, by contrast, only six countries in the world lost population, due to much higher fertility rates and a relatively younger population in past decades.

10By 2100, half of babies born worldwide are expected to be born in AfricaAfrica is projected to overtake Asia in births by 2060. Half of babies born worldwide are expected to be born in Africa by 2100, up from three-in-ten today. Nigeria is expected to have 864 million births between 2020 and 2100, the most of any African country. The number of births in Nigeria is projected to exceed those in China by 2070.

Meanwhile, roughly a third of the world’s babies are projected to be born in Asia by the end of this century, down from about half today and from a peak of 65% in the 1965-70 period.

11Latin America and the Caribbean had one of the world's youngest populations in 1950; by 2100, it is expected to have the world's oldestThe Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to have the oldest population of any world region by 2100, a reversal from the 20th century. In 1950, the region’s median age was just 20 years. That figure is projected to more than double to 49 years by 2100.

This pattern is evident when looking at individual countries in the region. For example, in 2020, the median ages of Brazil (33), Argentina (32) and Mexico (29) are all expected to be lower than the median age in the U.S. (38). However, by 2100, all three of these Latin American nations are projected to be older than the U.S. The median age will be 51 in Brazil, 49 in Mexico and 47 in Argentina, compared with a median age of 45 in the U.S. Colombia is expected to undergo a particularly stark transition, with its median age more than tripling between 1965 and 2100 – from 16 to 52.

Japan is projected to have the highest median age of any country in the world in 2020, at 48 years old. Japan’s median age is expected to continue to rise until it peaks at 55 in 2065. It is expected to be lower in 2100 (54). By that time, the country with the highest median age is expected to be Albania, with a median age of 61.

Correction: This post has been updated to clarify that India is expected to become the world’s most populous country by 2027. By 2059, its population is projected to reach 1.7 billion.

Note: The UN projections for the future population are based on assumptions about likely future changes in key demographic indicators, including fertility, life expectancy and migration. There is uncertainty regarding specific estimates. This analysis uses the medium variant for future dates, which takes the midpoint of likely outcomes. For more information, see the full UN report, data tables and methodology.

pew research



25 Comments on "World’s population is projected to nearly stop growing by the end of the century"

  1. Chrome Mags on Wed, 4th Sep 2019 7:33 pm 

    What is this obsession with projections to 2100? That’s 80+ years from now. There is no way to know what will be happening in the year 2100 based on what’s going on now. The variables are too numerous to predict with any assurance of accuracy.

  2. Sissyfuss on Wed, 4th Sep 2019 8:10 pm 

    Getting humanity to 2100 would be an extremely positive and hopeful accomplishment which has almost no chance of possibility. Gaia has not begun to show her ruthlessness, her red in claw and tooth. The climate science grows more catastrophic in detail and the humans more desperate as the inertia of collapse becomes a force unto itself.

  3. makati1 on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 12:16 am 

    Chrome, they are obsessed with the future. Everyone with any common sense would not even try to predict 8 years into the future. let alone 80. It’s like the economists with charts. They draw a straight line, based on the past, to predict the future. LMAO!

    Sissyfuss has the right idea. Mother Nature is just limbering up for the big event. Wait until the hurricanes are ALL cat 6 or 7, the floods and droughts are every year. The plagues come back in force to an unprepared humanity. It is just beginning. Prepare.

    I can tell you, from my 75 years, that they cannot predict shit. The world of 2019 is drastically different than they were predicting in 1944 when I was born, or even 2000. If you could accurately predict even one year in advance, you would become a billionaire over night. Not going to happen. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

  4. Chrome Mags on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 1:07 am 

    “Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

    That’s it, Mak. Whatever prep is possible for what’s coming.

    “Sissyfuss has the right idea. Mother Nature is just limbering up for the big event. Wait until the hurricanes are ALL cat 6 or 7, the floods and droughts are every year.”

    A cat 1 (74-95 mph 21mph range), cat. 2 (96-110 24mph range), cat. 3 (111-129 18 mph range), cat. 4 (130-156 26mph range), cat. 5 157 and higher.

    If we add 26 mph to 157 = 183 mph.

    Dorian had sustained winds of 185 mph, so could that be considered a cat. 6? I don’t think TPTB want to entertain that notion, but at some point it may be unavoidable as hurricane wind speeds rise from increased water temp./more energy.

  5. makati1 on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 1:21 am 

    Chrome, I can see even cat 7 eventually. I am hoping that the changes in ocean temps and winds move typhoons away from the Philippines. We have been lucky so far his year. Most have brushed the northern tip of Luzon and headed for Taiwan.

    Imagine if Dorian had come ashore in Miami instead of the Bahamas. WHEW!

  6. Davy on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 1:59 am 

    I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentrate on my own blog. I do want to thank all those who have attacked me with giving me material for growth. I couldn’t have done it without y’all.

    A special shout out to makato, annoy, bobby, cloggo, Idaho and all the rest of you guys over the years. I never would have been able to grow my REAL Green Adaptation mode thingy without you’re help.

    You guys are the best!

    dumbasses

  7. Davy on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 2:04 am 

    Oops, sorry. I forgot about juanpee.

    juanpee has givin me more material for growing my REAL Green Adaptation thingy than anyone else.

    Thanks for attacking me juanpee! Your my inspiration!

  8. Davy on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 3:55 am 

    Double oops, sorry, for failing to register a humper pumper #9 report for past weekend.

    Searching for twink ebony replacement for Pablo. Ever since he left me, my toenail paint has never been the same.

  9. Davy on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 3:58 am 

    TRIPLE oops, sorry!!!!!!

    2:04 AM second paragraph should read:

    “…. my REAL Green DEEP Adaption thingy….”

  10. JuanPaultard madness on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 5:24 am 

    Davy said TRIPLE oops, sorry!!!!!! 2:04 AM second paragraph…
    Davy said Double oops, sorry, for failing to register a hump…
    Davy said Oops, sorry. I forgot about juanpee. juanpee has…
    Davy said I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated f…
    supremacist muzzie monkey said i saw a supremacist muzzie monkey in dress today….
    supremacist muzzie monkey said i saw a supremacist muzzie monkey in dress today….

  11. Davy on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 6:36 am 

    These types of research really are not relevant to late stage capitalism and a destabilizing Anthropocene. I personally think man will survive to 2100 but not like we know ourselves today. I in no way think extinction is off the table but I feel the planet will still be livable by then for a different human. Will that human be intelligent like today? We may have less knowledge but more wisdom from a brush with collapse. We may have people who pick up the pieces knowing better. We may have a reversion to savages which would be an unprepared modern man descending to semi-nomadic killing and gathering. We will probably have both depending on where you are at so this points to a place of refuge. If you are in a bad local get out. Your life may depend on it and don’t think leaving when it gets bad will always work. It takes years to create a survivable way of life. Start now and beat the rush.

    The possibilities are many but what I see unlikely is a liberal democracy with market-based capitalism driving a technological growth civilization with high populations. Is it possible we could degrowth and still retain some affluence which means some good tech with networks of knowledge? I think it is possible in some Byzantium type locations with walled cities inhabited by wise people who present a formable defense These type situations might mange a higher civilization. Populations will have to drop for the multiple planetary and systematic reasons we discuss here daily. Renewables will not be a transition energy source. Climate will be altered making industrial monocultures a thing of the past at least at the level they are today. Depletion will make fantasy high tech answers to our predicament nothing but failures. Fusion and space travel come to mind.

    It is still unclear how bad it will get and how quick. These are the key variables to species survival in overshoot. We are clearly in overshoot at the level of consumption and population. If our descent can be slower and with less stress, we may be able to avoid a horrible quick bottleneck where most of the best of civilization is rapid lost. We might end up without understanding of the pre modern ways and modern ways of survival. Think about that for a moment. We may revert back to an animal similar to one let out of a zoo without a clue how to survive. In this case we will be worse than the Apes who at least have a natural society.

    I think we will survive but at what level. In the next decades the real test of mankind is upon us. If you are young, I would start preparing like some who embrace a religion or cult. Do it with passion and meaning. Immense zeal is needed from young people who avoid electronics and junk food. These young people instead focus on survival strategies. Hopefully some old guys and gals can offer direction. All I see out of older people today is whining and finger pointing. I see few truly wise from the older generation and my generation that is 50 something. The older generation pretty much hates kids and young people so is it any wonder the young are turning out like they are? No, old people love their kids whether they be biological or those taken under their wing. They hate young people in general and blame them instead of themselves for the destruction of the biosphere and the decay of civilization.

    In a sense this is the way nature works and we are part of a self-organizing process with no blame. This is what happens to civilization and biomes. They decay in all circumstances, why would we be different? This will be a time of heroism for the strong. Meaning will take on new meaning. The wise and strong will survive and might even prosper in some places. A culling is ahead. You can get ready for it or live like a cavalier on the edge of a cliff.

  12. supremacist muzzie monkey on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 7:00 am 

    Big goat must chill on 10,000 acre SuperTard mansion in ozarks with Learjet.

    Amputate muzzies and dispose on big goat ranch.

  13. Davy on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 7:06 am 

    JuanPaultard, you commented at 2:00am, 4:00am, and 7:00am. Do you get any sleep or are you in a delusional manic episode? Go to Douglas Gardens before all is lost:

    http://www.dgcmhc.org/

  14. supremacist muzzie monkey on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 9:30 pm 

    Open defecation, practiced by 7 million people in the Philippines, is both a public health problem, and a safety and dignity problem for women and girls Jee Y. Geronimo
    makaturd
    sup wit dat bra?

  15. Anonymouse on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 10:18 pm 

    Apparently, the expcetionaltard does not own what we call a ‘clock’ himself. If he did, he would discover he makes plenty of posts at all sorts of, weird hour, off-hour times himself. But hey when you’re a hypocritical delusional douche-bag, things like facts, and reality tend to get thrown out the window.

    And we call YOU the delusionalturd Davy dumbass. No one else has earned the moniker(s) of demented, delusional, and deranged as you have. You own those terms, so try not to forget that dumbass.

  16. makati1 on Thu, 5th Sep 2019 10:37 pm 

    sup…you know this for a fact? In my 10 years living in Manila, I NEVER saw shit in the street, even dog shit. However… “There have been roughly 118,352 reported instances of human fecal matter spotted on San Francisco streets since 2011 as California works to stem the tide of poop coursing through the Golden State, an April Forbes report noted.”

    https://dailycaller.com/2019/04/22/california-poop-streets-homeless/

    There may be that number (~7M) of persons that live in the countryside without indoor plumbing and they do use outside facilities. So, is that bad? They don’t crap on the streets.

    When I was a kid, outhouses were the norm in the US. We did not have indoor plumbing until I was 5 years old. 1949. My best friend did not have indoor plumbing until he was in his teens. So what? When the SHTF and electric becomes erratic or ends completely, what are Americans goi8ng to do, stop shitting?

  17. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 1:14 am 

    The way forward for Europe after empire & GlobalHomo:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/06/viktor-orban-trumpets-far-right-procreation-anti-immigration-policy

    “Viktor Orbán trumpets Hungary’s ‘procreation, not immigration’ policy”

    The unmarried and/or childless are going to be put in a special tax bracket.

    #WankerTax

    The man is the head of the family and has the responsibility. The woman is the heart of the family. Easy no-guilt divorce needs to be abolished. Back to the fifties.

    Okay, 1959.

  18. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 1:58 am 

    “When I was a kid, outhouses were the norm in the US. We did not have indoor plumbing until I was 5 years old. 1949.”

    Interesting topic.

    https://www.riool.info/ontstaan-van-het-riool

    In Crete they are still using pipes from 2000 BC.

    In the Middle Ages they were shitting in the street like in LA (Christianity is a stinking loser religion)

    London had the first sewage system, 2nd half 19th century.

    Holland by the end of the 19th century. Until 1935 in many Dutch villages many were still using the “poepemmer” (poop bucket), the content of which was collected via cart and horse.

    The British Medical Journal in 2007 choose the sewage system as the #1 “medical” breakthrough in history.

  19. makati1 on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 2:24 am 

    But, Cloggie, when the sewage system stops…as it will, what then? No pumps to move the shit means you will be shitting outside…again. Do you have a “poepemmer” in your preps? Our farm has a gravity fed water system so I will always have an inside toilet. 12 feet of annual rain guarantees it. LOL

  20. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 3:06 am 

    “But, Cloggie, when the sewage system stops…as it will‘

    Why would it?

    Even if energy supply would drop with 50% (I can see many advantages in that), so what? People would be forced to cut back on flying and driving, and thermostate back from 21 to 19C, but not pumping sewage water.

    As you can see, in 1970 Holland consumed 1/3 of the electricity we consume today. Driving was only beginning to take off:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/dutch-post-war-electricity-production/

    We were fine then, merrily shitting away on a toilet rather than in a bucket. Holidays were consumed by train, to the Dutch coast rather than Spain, let alone Thailand.

    I think collapse stories are sooo 2011.

  21. Anonymouse on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 3:07 am 

    Cloggedanus doesn’t have to worry about where he shits mak. He gets around that by simply never taking a dump. Which also explains, why he is constantly full of shit. For the relatively small amount of crap that leaks out of cloggedrectums pie-hole, he has his solar powered incontinence diaper to take of the rest.

  22. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 3:18 am 

    Already acquired a flat in Atlanta, mousy?

  23. Sissyfuss on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 8:04 am 

    Mak, I remember on a cold winter day in the 50s trudging across the yard to the outhouse knowing when I dropped my drawers to do my “bidness” I would not warm up for a long time. Also, in the summer, besides the stench, you had to look around before sitting down because the wasps and bees somehow found the comode to be quite accommodating. Ah, such simpler times.

  24. Dredd on Fri, 6th Sep 2019 12:58 pm 

    LOL Sissyfuss …

    Anyway, as to this post (“World’s population is projected to nearly stop growing …”)

    I say it is just more “keep the population great again” propaganda (The Shape Shifters Of Bullshitistan – 20).

    Or is this some lame attempt to cover up the deaths of hundreds of millions of people due to just another civilization going down?

    Remember Toynbee: “In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority.” – Encyclopedia Britannica

  25. Harold on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 6:35 am 

    Here are my thoughts https://admission-writer.com/blog/college-or-high-school on high school and college. Do you need this at all?

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