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World population may rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050

World population may rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050 thumbnail

New York, Aug 28: The world population will reach 9.9 billion in 2050, increasing by 33 per cent from an estimated 7.4 billion now, the latest report from the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) has predicted. If the assumptions underlying 2050 projections by the PRB’s World Population Data Sheet are applied to subsequent years, the world population would hit the 10 billion mark in 2053, with set to Asia gain about 900 million to 5.3 billion.(ALSO READ: Humans altered 97 per cent of most species-rich places on Earth)

“Despite declines in fertility rates around the world, we expect population gains to remain strong enough to take us toward a global population of 10 billion,” said Jeffrey Jordan, president and CEO of PRB. “Significant regional differences remain, though. For example very low birth rates in Europe will mean population declines there while Africa’s population is expected to double,” said Jordan. PRB’s projections show Africa’s population will reach 2.5 billion by 2050, while the number of people in the Americas will rise by only 223 million to 1.2 billion.

Europe registers a decline from 740 million to 728 million. Oceania (which includes Australia and New Zealand) would rise from 40 million to 66 million. The Data Sheet’s midcentury population projections indicate that the combined population of the world’s least developed countries in the world will double by 2050 to 1.9 billion. The population in 29 countries will more than double. Nearly all of these countries are in Africa. In Niger, the country with the highest birth rate, the population will more than triple. The data showed that, 42 countries will register population declines.

These countries are scattered throughout Asia, Latin America and Europe. Some European countries will post significant declines, such as Romania, which is projected to have a population of 14 million in 2050, down from 20 million today, researchers said. The population of the US will be 398 million, up 23 per cent from 324 million today. According to the Data Sheet’s estimates of current population, over 25 per cent of the world’s population is under 15 years old.

The figure is 41 per cent in least developed countries and 16 per cent in more developed countries. Japan has the oldest population profile, with over a quarter of its citizens older than 65. Qatar and the UAE are at the other end of the spectrum, with each having only 1 per cent over 65. The top ten fertility rates in the world are in sub-Saharan African countries, with nearly all above 6 children per woman, and one topping seven. The fertility rate in the US is 1.8 children per woman, down from 1.9 in 2014. Thirty-three countries in Europe and Asia already have more people over age 65 than under 15.

32 Comments on "World population may rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050"

  1. onlooker on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 4:03 pm 

    Yeah and if that were to happen by some miracle watch how quickly it would go down to 1 billion or less. Lets stop with our childish projections and face reality as a species. None of this fun and games

  2. onlooker on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 4:04 pm 

    Yeah and if that were to happen by some miracle watch how quickly it would go down to 1 billion or less. Lets stop with our childish projections and face reality as a species. None of this is fun and games

  3. Harm on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 5:11 pm 

    The scary thing is, 10 billion is a conservative estimate. Its already baked into the cake, as birth rates today will all but ensure we reach that number, short of a global nuclear war or asteroid strike.

  4. makati1 on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 5:26 pm 

    Population growth rate for selected countries (UN 2015):

    US 0.75
    Russia 0.04
    UK 0.63
    Netherlands 0.35
    Japan -0.12
    Germany 0.06
    France 0.45
    Denmark 0.42
    China 0.52
    Canada 1.04
    India 1.26
    Philippines 1.58

    The West is dying off. The island countries are growing slowly. The Middle East is growing faster, and Africa is winning the numbers race.

  5. HARM on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 6:10 pm 

    “The Middle East is growing faster, and Africa is winning the numbers race.”

    That would be “winning” in the Charlie Sheen sense?

  6. Sissyfuss on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 7:26 pm 

    Harm, you left out runaway global warming. Better than any prophylactic.

  7. Apneaman on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 7:53 pm 

    The Anthropocene is here: scientists

    “The human impact on Earth’s chemistry and climate has cut short the 11,700-year-old geological epoch known as the Holocene and ushered in a new one, scientists said Monday.
    The Anthropocene, or “new age of man,” would start from the mid-20th century if their recommendation—submitted Monday to the International Geological Congress in Cape Town, South Africa—is adopted.
    That approval process is likely to take at least two years and requires ratification by three other academic bodies.
    But after seven years of deliberation, the 35-strong Working Group has unanimously recognised the Anthropocene as a reality, and voted 30-to-three (with two abstentions) for the transition to be officially registered.
    “Our working model is that the optimal boundary is the mid-20th century,” said Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester.
    “If adopted—and we’re a long way from that—the Holocene would finish and the Anthropocene would formally be held to have begun.”
    Scientists refer to the period starting from 1950 as the “Great Acceleration”, and a glance at graphs tracking a number of chemical and socio-economic changes make it obvious why.”


  8. JuanP on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 8:21 pm 

    It is impossible to know how much the population will grow or for how long it will keep growing. We are already many times more than we should be. I think the situation is completely hopeless. I am glad it is not my problem. I pity the children being born into this world. I wouldn’t want to be born today. Today’s kids will live their whole lives in a world with a fucked up climate, increasing environmental destruction and resource scarcity. I do not envy the young!

  9. Sissyfuss on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 9:08 pm 

    By the time the scientists get around to ratifying the advent of the Anthropocene we will have already entered the Scorchopocene.

  10. Survivalist on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 10:30 pm 

    its more likely that decades of famine beginning in the mid 2020’s will prevent much more of the human population explosion.

  11. makati1 on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 10:49 pm 

    Survivalist, your population reduction idea is good but I would think your timeline is way off by maybe 5-8 years? I don’t see the higher temps and unpredictable weather giving us ~10 more years to ‘adjust’. And, have you considered how a world wide economic/financial crash might affect farmers and crops?

    Anyone who tries to project today’s BAU into the future is deluding themselves, is my opinion.

  12. Apneaman on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 11:27 pm 

    “the Scorchopocene.”? Love it (because it’s only happening to others so far)

    Heatwave continues to bake parts of the Middle East
    Iraq bearing the brunt of persistent hot weather as temperatures in Baghdad and Basra close in on 50C.

    50C – that’s 122 in freedom units.

  13. Apneaman on Mon, 29th Aug 2016 11:49 pm 

    Stanhope on babies and abortion…9:39

  14. onlooker on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 1:22 am 

    Actually the solution to overpopulation and accompanying famine is Soylent Green. Only kidding
    Det. Thorn: Ocean’s dying, plankton’s dying… it’s people. *Soylent Green is made out of people.* They’re making our food out of people. Next thing they’ll be breeding us like cattle for food. You’ve gotta tell them. You’ve gotta tell them!

    Hatcher: I promise, Tiger. I promise. I’ll tell the Exchange.

    Det. Thorn: You tell everybody. Listen to me, Hatcher. You’ve gotta tell them! Soylent Green is people! We’ve gotta stop them somehow!

  15. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 2:08 am 


    “We’re in the midst of the Earth’s sixth mass extinction crisis. Harvard biologist E. O. Wilson estimates that 30,000 species per year (or three species per hour) are being driven to extinction. Compare this to the natural background rate of one extinction per million species per year, and you can see why scientists refer to it as a crisis unparalleled in human history.

    The current mass extinction differs from all others in being driven by a single species rather than a planetary or galactic physical process. When the human race — Homo sapiens sapiens — migrated out of Africa to the Middle East 90,000 years ago, to Europe and Australia 40,000 years ago, to North America 12,500 years ago, and to the Caribbean 8,000 years ago, waves of extinction soon followed. The colonization-followed-by-extinction pattern can be seen as recently as 2,000 years ago, when humans colonized Madagascar and quickly drove elephant birds, hippos, and large lemurs extinct [1].”

  16. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 2:15 am 

    No really, how sustainable are we?

  17. theedrich on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 2:16 am 

    Let us entertain the unthinkable:  suppose America (the “indispensable” nation) were to be somehow shut down.  Put out of the game of world domination, period.  Its economy moved back to eighteenth-century levels.  Then the rest of the world could fight it out nuclearly or otherwise — with tyrannies or cunning leaders — and quickly and seriously reduce the population by preventing the lower IQs from replicating, thereby saving the earth.

    So what is more important:  keeping the “indispensable” nation on track, or maintaining intelligent life on the planet?

  18. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 2:29 am 

    What Is The Alt-Right?

  19. Go Speed Racer on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 3:44 am 

    An atomic war would thin the ranks.
    Ka-Blam-O, and back to 1 Billion in no time.

  20. Boat on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 5:13 am 


    Some say remnants of the KKK. Kinda like KKK light.

  21. Cloggie on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 5:36 am 

    With 190 million privately owned fire arms around in the US, I would seriously advice to reconsider the use of the label ‘light’.

    The KKK is the somewhat comical US expression of ethnic nationalism, with these silly robes and burning crosses, married to Christianity where in reality a marriage is impossible, because ethno-nationalism is incompatible with universalist Christianity (=communism + God and afterlife).

    In 2016 better leave it to Ukrainians to professionally express nationalism:

    I hope that in Europe the coming right wing revolution will not result in too extreme nationalism, but instead that it will be possible to implement a neo-Gaullist “Europe of the Fatherlands” that should replace the EU.

    The EU parliament and commission should be abolished and replaced with a council of ministers, just like in the good old days of the EC. The euro should stay, but in some economic weaker countries (Russia, France, Greece) operate as a parallel business currency (the alternative would be Deutsch-Mark or dollar as continental currency, God forbid). But the most important should be a strong military, able to intervene in North-America if that territory will descend in chaos as well as balance China and keep Islam out. Furthermore a merger of the Russian and European space programs that should set itself ambitious goals.

  22. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 5:46 am 

    Yeah, that European nationalism really worked out well last time eh?

  23. Kenz300 on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 9:19 am 

    Watch The Climate Change Ad Fox News Didn’t Want Its Viewers To See

    Climate Change is real….. we will all be impacted by it……

    Exxon’s Climate Change Cover-Up Is ‘Unparalleled Evil,’ Says Activist

    The Effects Of Growth: Sprawl & Development – YouTube

  24. Kenz300 on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 9:20 am 

    Travel to the Real Philippines: Homeless Family w/ 3 Young Kids. Poverty among Filipinos is High

    Having a child that you can not provide for is cruel……..and leads to more poverty, suffering and despair…………

    Child Beggars Of India- A Documentary

    The Effects Of Growth: Sprawl & Development – YouTube

    Overpopulation makes every problem harder to solve.
    Poverty…unemployment……..climate change…….

  25. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 2:40 pm 

    Human Overpopulation: Have We Become An Invasive Species?

  26. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 6:46 pm 

    Sounds familiar.

    U.S. economy can’t outgrow future natural disasters, study finds

    Addressing global warming may be the only way, researchers suggest

    “The recent flooding in Louisiana serves as a stark reminder of the many natural disasters that the U.S. has suffered through in recent years. With all the wanton destruction our communities continue to face, it’s natural to wonder how funding for relief efforts can manage to keep up.

    Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) say that, unfortunately, maybe they can’t. Their recent study shows that U.S. economic growth will eventually be unable to keep up with the damages caused by ever-growing hurricanes and tropical storms.”

    “Addressing global warming”?

    A. Never going to happen.

    B. Too late.

  27. makati1 on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 7:04 pm 

    Ap, A&B … yep, about 50+ years too late. The US has no “growth” only faux numbers for an economy that doesn’t exist.

  28. Apneaman on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 7:35 pm 

    Heads up if you live in the US southeast.

    Climate Change May be Readying to Split the Heavens over the U.S. Southeast — So What Can We Do?

    “Only a few weeks after severe rains inundated Louisiana, another powerful atmospheric bomb may be leveling its sights toward a broad region of Florida and the US Southeast. Rainfall amounts in excess of one foot are expected over portions of Florida as a tropical depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it churns in from a record-hot Gulf of Mexico. Coastal portions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina may see 5-10 inches of rain over the coming few days. And long range forecasts indicate a possible tropical storm or weak hurricane threat to interests from the Outer Banks through New England by late this week.

    The storm, fueled by unprecedented levels of ocean and atmospheric heat and moisture, has the potential to dump rains at rates capable of overwhelming local infrastructure. If this happens, vehicles and homes will once more be under the gun for severe and damaging flooding in a summer that has seen a seemingly endless litany of such events across the U.S. and around the world.”


  29. makati1 on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 10:06 pm 

    For those who believe they are immune from famine, I might remind you that if there are no profits, there will be no food. Ditto for oil and other ‘necessities we do not personally produce. During the Great Depression, farmers could raise a lot of food but lost money if they trucked it to market, so many people starved in the US. Now, it is beginning to happen again …

    Food for thought. Pun intended. lol

  30. makati1 on Tue, 30th Aug 2016 10:11 pm 

    Kenz, you might mention the millions of American kids in poverty and who go to bed hungry every night, when you talk about other countries. Or the 47 million Americans who rely on Food Stamps to feed themselves and their families. 47 million equals about half of the Filipino population. Or the millions of homeless Americans. Look in the mirror before pointing finger at others.

  31. Davy on Wed, 31st Aug 2016 5:40 am 

    “For those who believe they are immune from famine”. Someone needs to buy a mirror.

  32. peakyeast on Thu, 1st Sep 2016 5:28 pm 

    Yes we might reach 10 billion – and then hurl towards 0 with all the resemblances of a meteorstrike.

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