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Page added on July 30, 2018
Why, in a Few Years, Nobody Will be Talking About Climate Change Anymore.
Imagine you are a German citizen living in the early 1940s. Would you know that the German Government was engaged in the extermination of millions of Jews and other ethnical groups? The question is controversial: one interpretation is that Germans couldn’t possibly be unaware of what was going on. But, it is also true that the extermination was never mentioned in the German media. Ordinary Germans might have been aware that the Jews were being mistreated, but they had no way to know the extent of what was going on. In the cacophony of news about the ongoing war, the issue of the Jews didn’t register as something really important. Something similar happened in Italy with the defeat of the Italian army in Russia in 1943. The disaster was never mentioned in the media and it didn’t play a role in the public perception of what was going on.
The propaganda techniques used in Germany and in Italy during WWII were still primitive in comparison to those we have nowadays, but they were nevertheless effective in the field we call today “perception management.” Denying information is called “deception by omission.” A good description is reported by Carlo Kopp.
A prerequisite for Deception by Omission is that the victim has poor a priori knowledge or no a priori knowledge or understanding of what the attacker is presenting to be a picture of reality. A misperception of reality favourable to the attacker can be implanted if the victim can be induced to form a picture of reality based only upon what the attacker presents. .. Deception by omission is a very popular technique in commercial product marketing and political marketing since it permits attacks without resorting to making provably untruthful statements. .. The deception by omission technique is often successful due to laziness or incompetence on the part of a victim population.
Kopp also notes how Deception by Omission is often coupled with two other techniques known as “Deception by Saturation” (saturating the target with irrelevant information) and “Deception by Spin” (presenting correct information in ways that make it favorable to a specific interpretation).
Now let’s see how the technique works in our times. We start with an example: you surely know that the American government is engaged in “Targeted Killing” operations, mainly using killer drones. How many people are being killed? The official data tell of hundreds – at most thousands – of victims. But are these data accurate? They come from sources which already blatantly cheated us and we have no independent sources. I am not saying that the victims could be millions, as they were in Germany during WWII, it is just that we have no idea. We know that people are being killed, but we don’t know how many and, in the tsunami of news we receive every day, we tend to think that this is only a marginal problem.
What’s interesting, here, is how the public perceives the drone wars. Here are some results from Google Trends.
You see how the interest of the public, measured in terms of Web searches, peaked around 2013 to decline afterward. There is no evidence that the number of drone strikes declined, on the contrary, there are hints that they are increasing under the Trump administration. So, a reasonable interpretation is that the interest is declining because the media are mentioning targeted killings less frequently.
There is no easy way to measure the press coverage of a specific event or series of events, but we can use Google trends for an indirect measurement. Here is the same term, “Drone kills” measured in terms of the click on the “News” section of the Google search engine.
We may reasonably assume that every spike in the graph is caused by news appearing in the media, in turn causing people to search for more. So, it seems that the media has become very quiet, lately, about targeted killings. Note that I am not saying that the US government controls the media in the same way as the Nazi government did during WWII. But the US government does control the source of the news. If the government doesn’t provide news about something (or provides only scant news) then the journalists have little to show to the public. If the subject doesn’t often appear on the media, the public loses interest in it. And if the public loses interest in something, journalists are even less motivated to write about it. It is a feedback loop: we may reasonably suppose that it is what we are seeing in the case of the targeted killings program.
Let’s see now how the same mechanism may be at work in the case of global warming and climate change. First of all, here are some results from Google Trends.
Here, we don’t see the same evident decline in interest we saw for the case of “drone kills,” but I think it is reasonable to say that there has been a detectable decline during the past year or so (note that the 2017 spike corresponds to Trump’s announcement that the US would withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty). This interpretation may be confirmed by the most recent Gallup poll. Again, the declining trend is still uncertain, but it seems to be there. In March 2018, Americans were less convinced that climate change is a threat than they were in 2017.
Other data from the same poll indicate that the change is mainly caused by a decline in the number of “concerned” people, while the fraction of skeptics and lukewarmers remains approximately the same.
So, what’s happening? The most likely explanation is that it is the result of the Trump administration is using deception by omission. There is no doubt that they are muzzling scientists and scientific agencies and Trump himself has been silent on climate change despite his many tweets. Nowhere the strategy administration is clearer than with the story of the “red team/blue team” debate on climate proposed by the former EPA administrator Scott Pruitt. The idea was soon nixed by the administration, correctly if seen in the framework of a deception by omission strategy. If there had been such a debate, no matter which side could have given the impression of being right, the public would have perceived climate change as an important issue.
Now, of course when discussing these matters one always risks to be branded as a conspiracy theorist and ignored. But we don’t have to think that some people collected in a secret room to plan dark and dire things against us. It is just that ignoring climate change is in the best interest of several sectors of society. The current elites either don’t believe that climate change is a serious problem or, if they do, they have decided that their best chance is to work to save themselves, letting the rest of us starve, sink, or burn (I call it the Kiribati Effect). Then, for many industrial lobbies, acting against climate change means losing money. In all cases, the logical strategy for them is to ignore the problem – at least in public.
It is not even so difficult to deceive the public on climate change. We are all subjected to “doomsday fatigue” and most people just can’t seem to be able to keep their attention on something that changes slowly over the years. And we are all sensible to deception by omission. The result of the combined action of the government and of this common attitude is a “palpable ratings killer” for all the news regarding climate change. I hate to cite the abominable blog by Anthony Watts, but he has been correctly noting the same trend. And even Watts’ anti-science blog has been hit by deception by omission! It is a steamroller of propaganda that squeezes away from the debate everything that deals with climate change.
So, we may well be seeing an epochal shift in the public perception of climate change. The end of the world will become old news, as noted by David Wallace-West. Any hope to avoid that? Not easy: it is a nearly impossible battle to be fought against the combined forces of the government, the industrial lobbies, and of the public’s apathy. At the very least, we should realize that there is the serious risk of losing it. That is, we may be facing a future in which the very concept of “climate science” will become everyone’s laughingstock (do you remember what happened to “The Limits to Growth“?). It will be an epochal defeat for science.
Certainly, the denial of climate change is taking place against a background of increasing temperatures and the associated climate disasters — events that would seem to be difficult to ignore. But, in practice, they are ignored. What would we need to push people out of their apathy? Giant fires? We are having them. Scorching heatwaves? Here you go. Droughts? Sure. None of these events are having an impact on the public’s views on climate. Imagine that, in a few years, we will see the Arctic Ocean free of ice in Summer. Can you imagine the reaction? Ho-hum, yes, the Arctic Ocean was free from ice millions of years ago. Climate changes all the time, you know?
We are playing, it seems, with a doomsday version of the story of Goldilocks and the three bears. A climate catastrophe that’s too small will not have any effect on people’s views, but if it is too big it will be too late to avoid a disastrous Seneca Cliff for the whole human civilization. We would need a catastrophe just big enough — but it is at least unlikely that the Earth’s climate will nicely provide us with it.
At the very least, we should recognize that we have been doing something wrong in terms of managing the public perception of climate change. Then, we need some kind of “plan B”. Any suggestions?
Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi
93 Comments on "Why, in a Few Years, Nobody Will be Talking About Climate Change Anymore."
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 5:16 pm
MS-45 America’s most dangerous gang
https://imgur.com/a/Sy4RR2b
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 5:26 pm
More Americans are forced to “reside” in their vehicles
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-americans-are-living-in-their-vehicles-amid-high-housing-prices/?ftag=CNM-00-10aag7e
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 5:51 pm
A white supremacist told a Black man to “go back to Africa”. And the Black man unleashed fire and fury
https://twitter.com/IndivisibleNet/status/1024072562039353344
Makati1 on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 6:53 pm
Entertaining to wake up in the morning to Davy and MM’s insanity. It’s fun to see what they posted while I was off line sleeping. Nothing like a dozen Davy’s bullshit posts all in a line to ignore. I can get the gist of their rants from the intelligent rebuttals posted by GregT, JuanP, Onlooker, etc. I don’t usually read anything by Davy or MM as it is all delusional BS. Two reasons the Us is collapsing into the toilet bowl.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 7:07 pm
Madkat
Don’t you feel slandering someone half your age and half way around the world is a little petty? And your country uses petro chemicals to grow food..Without oil and gas you will starve to death..And it takes several decades of organic inputs to make the soil capable of growing food without petro chemicals..You’ll see soon enough.
Makati1 on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 7:12 pm
I no longer reply to any posts that do not address Makati1. If the poster cannot remember my name here, he/she is not intelligent/mature enough to have anything worth reading.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 7:16 pm
Madkat
People call me millimind and all sorts of shit all the time..including you..You are just a little sensitive snowflake..You just dont want to reply because you have no facts to support your position..So you are constantly losing every debate..Why don’t you go change your diaper you old geezer..
Davy on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 7:30 pm
“I don’t usually read anything by Davy”
Sure billy 3rd world, depending on what kind of whine you are doing de jure it is either you don’t read me or you are reading everything I stroking in anger.
“intelligent rebuttals posted by GregT, JuanP”
Dumbshit, they didn’t say anything how could it be a rebuttals. These fools troll bait and they enable your personality disorders. How is that intelligent?
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 7:56 pm
“These fools troll bait and they enable your personality disorders.”
No one needs to bait you Davy. You troll all by yourself.
All anybody is asking, is for you to stop harassing, bullying, and attacking others, but apparently you are incapable of common courtesy and respect for other people.
Therefore, the retaliations will continue.
Davy on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 7:59 pm
“retaliations will continue.”
Well, what you really mean is an effort by a few clowns at group censorship. What a joke.
Makati1 on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:08 pm
Interesting observation of the Us today:
“Notes on Falsehood in the Age of Trump, Lasch was ahead of his time in defining narcissism as a “defensive reaction to social change and instability.”…
“Something only becomes real when it’s recorded in the form of a photographic image, a recording of the human voice, or whatever. The result is that our whole perception is colored, and I think it has a mirror-like effect. People find it difficult to establish a sense of self unless it’s reflected back in the reaction of others or in the form of images.”…
In The Culture of Narcissism, Lasch had extended the word’s definition to include “dependence on the vicarious warmth provided by others combined with a fear of dependence, a sense of inner emptiness, boundless repressed rage, and unsatisfied oral cravings.” He also added secondary traits like “pseudo self-insight, calculated seductiveness, nervous self-deprecating humor… intense fear of old age and death, altered sense of time, fascination with celebrity, fear of competition, decline of play spirit, deteriorating relations between men and women.””
https://www.globalresearch.ca/dawn-of-the-decadent-breakdown-of-culture-emerging-psychic-assault-on-humanity/5649232
Sounds like America today.
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:13 pm
“Well, what you really mean is an effort by a few clowns at group censorship. What a joke.”
What I really mean Davy, is that you’re a nasty piece of work, and until to learn to mind your manners and grow up, instead of constantly acting out like a spoiled prepubescent teen, the retaliations will continue.
Your choice buddy.
Davy on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:26 pm
You are a troll grehgor and what is more disparaging is you are a clown. Your buddy billy 3rd world, asperger, and boney juan are at the same clown IQ.
Your choice to keep on looking foolish
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:31 pm
As long as you choose to continue harassing, bullying, and personally attacking others on this forum, including myself, the retaliations will continue Davy.
Davy on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:35 pm
As long as you and your gangbangers choose to attempt group censorship you will be disrespected, grehgor. You people are ugly and contribute very little to increasing knowledge here on this board. Go chase your tail doggie.
Makati1 on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:38 pm
GregT, insanity rules in Davy’s mind. A total breakdown is in his future. Will it come out in a “postal moment” or just suicide? At least with suicide, no one else will be hurt.
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:56 pm
“As long as you and your gangbangers choose to attempt group censorship you will be disrespected,”
The very reason why it has come to this point, is your constant disrespect for others here going on five years now.
People have had enough of your bullshit Davy.
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 8:59 pm
Yes Makati1, Davy is bad news just looking for a place to happen. I also sincerely hope that he doesn’t cause harm to others. The guy really needs to be institutionalized.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 9:09 pm
Greg
Enough with the circle jerking already..Its gets old..Just because you both are paranoid nut job preppers doesn’t mean you need to tag team davy constantly..
Davy on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 9:21 pm
You two clowns lower the board IQ which is sad for the others. grehgor is noise and billy 3rd world tabloid.
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 10:20 pm
Makati1 is magnitudes above you in the intelligence department Davy.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 10:55 pm
Greg
Are you madkat’s protector?
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 11:06 pm
MM,
Does it make you feel big and tough bullying a 74 year old man?
MASTERMIND on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 11:44 pm
Greg
I have never started anything with anyone on this blog ever..I post comments about the articles posted or I post my own articles. And you and madkat and clogg will jump my ass calling me name and insulting me..and i fire back..Notice that me and davy don’t hardly ever go at it? Why? because i dont attack him and he doesn’t attack me..if it wasnt for you and clogg and madkat this board wouldn’t be non stop mud slinging..
GregT on Tue, 31st Jul 2018 11:55 pm
What would you call this MM?
“Why don’t you go change your diaper you old geezer..”
In response to this:
“I no longer reply to any posts that do not address Makati1. If the poster cannot remember my name here, he/she is not intelligent/mature enough to have anything worth reading.”
MASTERMIND on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 12:13 am
Greg
He started by saying ” I love to wake up and see the insanity of Davy and MM” Etc..
Like I said I never start shit..
GregT on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 12:20 am
MM,
People call you millimind and micromind here, because the articles that you keep linking do not support your conclusions, and you continually try to ram your opinions down other peoples’ throats, long after they have countered your arguments, and told you that they don’t subscribe to your point of view.
It isn’t only Makati1 and Cloggie who refer to you as millimind MM. There are plenty of other individuals on this forum who feel the same way about you.
And MM. Makati1 does have a point. Much of what you say doesn’t exactly exude sanity, and you are constantly stirring up shit with others.
Cloggie on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 12:34 am
Clogg, sir,
Europe Economic Growth (GDP)
1973 5.4 %
1989 3.3%
2001 2%
2016 1.6%
2028 0% = Economic Collapse
Source: Harvard
Political Instability and Economic Growth – (Alesina, 1996) Journal of Economic Growth
https://www.scribd.com/document/384373317/Political-Instability-and-Economic-Growth-Alesina-1996
Source: World Bank
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locati&locations=EU
Liar.
Your link says nothing about 2028. And 2017 is 2.2% growth.
Worldbank singing the praise about Europe:
http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/465111512062598806/Global-Economic-Prospects-Jan-2018-Europe-and-Central-Asia-analysis.pdf
Growth in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is estimated to have accelerated from 1.7 percent in 2016 to 3.8 percent in 2017, up from 2.5 percent expected in June 2017. The recovery was broad-based and supported by revitalized domestic demand and robust external demand. Growth is expected to moderate to 2.9
percent in 2018 and stabilize at 3 percent in 2019-20
Haha, the millimind sucker caught off-guard once again.
(I have this rebuttal stored for easy reference, just in case you are going to repeat your lies)
GregT on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 12:39 am
“And it takes several decades of organic inputs to make the soil capable of growing food without petro chemicals.”
It has taken me exactly one season to grow food in a new garden plot, in what was originally mostly sand and rock, without the use of any petrochemicals.
You simply do not have the foggiest clue as to what you are talking about MM.
Anonymouse1 on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 12:44 am
ROFL@ Mushmind.
First off, davyturd, aka ‘mushmind’, does in fact, go after ‘you’. Although its all an act, as you well know. So saying the expcetionalturd never goes after ‘you’ is in your weird, delusional way, both true and not true.
It hardly matters if the delusionist only occasionally picks ‘fights’ with himself to bolster his socks credibility, such as it is, or if he really has started to believe ‘mushmind’ actually exists as a separate quasi-organic lifeform. Whatever your reasons for the things you do davyturd, you are still a creepy weirdo all the same.
Second, there is no one here called ‘madkat’, dumbass.
Third. You dont comment on existing articles, and sure as hell dont post ones of your own. Unless you call the rambling word salads and cut and pastes you post as davyturd, ‘articles’. (they are not).
All you do, is mainly post stuff too stupid even for davyturd to post openly. Most of which consists solely of insults directed at Mak, who is arguably, the main target of your ire and frustration. The only real reason you created ‘mushmind’ in the first place after all.
In the rare occasions ‘davyturd’, when you are not insulting Mak, you mostly post rambling, incoherent, and irrelevant nonsense. Things you think are too low-brow, even for davyturd to say. Or at least, that is how you imagine it anyhow. The others seem to have fun with you, imagining you to some kind of un-employed couch-surfer from, ‘Australia’, or, alternately, ‘Michigan’, davyturd never could decide which backstory to go with. Your only purpose, is to toss endless, feeble barbs at Mak 24/7, so davyturd feels less alone in the virtual world.
You see, the exceptioanltard has not, or will he ever, threaten in his dumbass way, to neuter, or ‘moderate’ (RoFL), you ‘mushmind’. Not that he does those to anyone else either, your fantasies to the contrary notwithstanding. The turd thinks your non-stop ragging on Mak is just dandy and A-oK with him, lol. Nothing extreme about that, no siree bob. Anyone else says anything you two(one) dumbasses dont care for, and he (you), writes it down in (his) your, nutty ‘documentation’ project. Your latest fling with insanity.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 1:47 am
Greg
The studies do support my conclusions..You just take them out of context and try to argue they don’t..because you are an old fat pussy who can’t handle the conclusions..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 1:57 am
greg
I am talking about commercial farming not some backyard flower garden..This is what I am talking you try to ridicule everything i say..you are totally obsessed with me..And you try to take everything I say out of context, and you assume everything based no evidence..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 1:58 am
Existing oil reserves are scheduled to begin a catastrophic crash within 1 to 3 years. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently….
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110698/The-end-of-Peak-Oil-Why-this-topic-is-still-relevant-despite-recent-denials-Chapman-2014
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
MASTERMIND on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 2:00 am
It is not possible to defend a farm… attackers will kill you when you venture out to weed or sow or harvest… they will get into your farm at night and raid the crop and kill the animals and rape your wife ..
This is the fate that awaits the Koombaya Doomie Preppers.
Makati1 on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 2:05 am
“You simply do not have the foggiest clue as to what you are talking about MM.”
Well said, Anonymouse1. Well said.
Davy on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 5:21 am
“Greg He started by saying ” I love to wake up and see the insanity of Davy and MM” Etc.. Like I said I never start shit..”
Grehgor, is a trolling anti-American hypocrite. He has been at it 5 years now with limited content contribution. He should be an embarrassment to Canadians who visit. He starts shit every morning by stalking and pricking Americans then he will tell you he is retaliating. What he is doing is comment pollution
Davy on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 5:27 am
Here is some more noise pollution:
Anonymouse1 on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 12:44 am
Here is his last comment that can be considered a contribution from asperger:
Anonymouse1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 2:02 pm
As you can see the Canadian boy wonder is a piece of work. He is worse than grehgor but at least less a hypocrite. asperger admits he hates Americans and he could care less about content. He is here to troll Americans, period.
Antius on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 6:54 am
” Liar.
Your link says nothing about 2028. And 2017 is 2.2% growth.
Worldbank singing the praise about Europe:
http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/465111512062598806/Global-Economic-Prospects-Jan-2018-Europe-and-Central-Asia-analysis.pdf
Growth in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is estimated to have accelerated from 1.7 percent in 2016 to 3.8 percent in 2017, up from 2.5 percent expected in June 2017. The recovery was broad-based and supported by revitalized domestic demand and robust external demand. Growth is expected to moderate to 2.9 percent in 2018 and stabilize at 3 percent in 2019-20″
Cloggie, as much as I hate to agree with the Millikike, he is basically correct in his assessment of the declining trend of economic growth in first world countries. This is a long-term structural problem and it results from the combination of both declining productivity per man-hour and tapering or declining working age populations. The first effect is due to increasing energy costs, which limit the ability of energy intensive machines and processes to leverage human labour; and a gradual shift the composition of western economies towards services; which tend to be inherently more labour intensive and therefore difficult to increase labour productivity. Take a look at Figure 3 in the link, below:
https://voxeu.org/article/brief-history-middle-class-economics
I suspect that the recent uptick in economic growth in the EU nations is a result of ECB quantitative easing, which basically amounts to expanding the money supply in an effort to increase investment spending.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bankers-big-bang-theory-201801170927
It works in the short term, but it tends to inflate asset bubbles and increase societal inequality. The flip side is that in order to avoid long-term inflation, quantitative easing must ultimately be followed by quantitative tightening, which has the opposite effects. Much of the turmoil in emerging markets at present is a result of a tightening of money supplies by the US central bank. This will litterally strangle economic growth and ensures a severe global recession in short order. The quantitative easing of 2009-2014, postponed the debt-energy crisis by a decade, but ensures that when it does arrive it will be far worse and far more intractable than it would have been in 2009.
This may be worthy of your attention:
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/06/20/129-why-what-how/
Davy on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 7:07 am
More objectivity and balance at work above. I mention this because this board is drowning in extremism and subjectivity.
Antius on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 8:34 am
Thanks Davy, I try my best. Too many people on this board are drawn into the whole Peak Energy circuit because they don’t like the world the way it is and think that the turmoil approaching will force the changes that they want to see.
GregT on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 10:07 am
“Here is some more noise pollution:”
You have been asked to keep it civil now going on five years Davy, yet you continue to harass, bully, and personally attack others on a daily basis.
You reap what you sow buddy.
Davy on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 10:28 am
Again grehgor enables bad behavior from the board’s worst deviants and this only goes to show how poor his contribution is. If this board could be rid of these extremist we could start the process of making it relevant again.
BTW, grehgor has not produced a real contribution in several days IOW he is waste space trolling.
GregT on Wed, 1st Aug 2018 10:47 am
You have been asked by many here Davy, including myself, to please bring an end to the constant name calling, childish rhetoric, delusional accusations, harassment, bullying, and personal attacks, going on five years now, but you simply refuse to stop.
So be it. You will reap what you sow.