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Page added on September 29, 2018
Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100
Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees by the end of this century.
A rise of seven degrees Fahrenheit, or about four degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels would be catastrophic, according to scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly acidic oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater without costly coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely smother large parts of the globe.
But the administration did not offer this dire forecast, premised on the idea that the world will fail to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, as part of an argument to combat climate change. Just the opposite: The analysis assumes the planet’s fate is already sealed.
The draft statement, issued by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), was written to justify President Trump’s decision to freeze federal fuel-efficiency standards for cars and light trucks built after 2020. While the proposal would increase greenhouse gas emissions, the impact statement says, that policy would add just a very small drop to a very big, hot bucket.
“The amazing thing they’re saying is human activities are going to lead to this rise of carbon dioxide that is disastrous for the environment and society. And then they’re saying they’re not going to do anything about it,” said Michael MacCracken, who served as a senior scientist at the U.S. Global Change Research Program from 1993 to 2002.
The document projects that global temperature will rise by nearly 3.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature between 1986 and 2005 regardless of whether Obama-era tailpipe standards take effect or are frozen for six years, as the Trump administration has proposed. The global average temperature rose more than 0.5 degrees Celsius between 1880, the start of industrialization, and 1986, so the analysis assumes a roughly four degree Celsius or seven degree Fahrenheit increase from preindustrial levels.
The world would have to make deep cuts in carbon emissions to avoid this drastic warming, the analysis states. And that “would require substantial increases in technology innovation and adoption compared to today’s levels and would require the economy and the vehicle fleet to move away from the use of fossil fuels, which is not currently technologically feasible or economically feasible.”
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
World leaders have pledged to keep the world from warming more than two degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels, and agreed to try to keep the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But the current greenhouse gas cuts pledged under the 2015 Paris climate agreement are not steep enough to meet either goal. Scientists predict a four degree Celsius rise by the century’s end if countries take no meaningful actions to curb their carbon output.
Trump has vowed to exit the Paris accord and called climate change a hoax. In the past two months, the White House has pushed to dismantle nearly half a dozen major rules aimed at reducing greenhouse gases, deregulatory moves intended to save companies hundreds of millions of dollars.
If enacted, the administration’s proposals would give new life to aging coal plants; allow oil and gas operations to release more methane into the atmosphere; and prevent new curbs on greenhouse gases used in refrigerators and air-conditioning units. The vehicle rule alone would put 8 billion additional tons of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere this century, more than a year’s worth of total U.S. emissions, according to the government’s own analysis.
Administration estimates acknowledge that the policies would release far more greenhouse gas emissions from America’s energy and transportation sectors than otherwise would have been allowed.
The statement is the latest evidence of deep contradictions in the Trump administration’s approach to climate change.
Despite Trump’s skepticism, federal agencies conducting scientific research have often reaffirmed that humans are causing climate change, including in a major 2017 report that found “no convincing alternative explanation.” In one internal White House memo, officials wondered whether it would be best to simply “ignore” such analyses.
In this context, the draft environmental impact statement from NHTSA — which simultaneously outlines a scenario for very extreme climate change, and yet offers it to support an environmental rollback — is simply the latest apparent inconsistency.
David Pettit, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council who testified against Trump’s freeze of car mileage standards Monday in Fresno, Calif., said his organization is prepared to use the administration’s own numbers to challenge its regulatory rollbacks. He noted that NHTSA document projects that if the world takes no action to curb emissions, current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide would rise from 410 parts per million to 789 ppm by 2100.
“I was shocked when I saw it,” Pettit said in a phone interview. “These are their numbers. They aren’t our numbers.”
Conservatives who condemned President Barack Obama’s climate initiatives as regulatory overreach have defended the Trump administration’s approach, calling it a more reasonable course.
Obama’s climate policies were costly to industry and yet “mostly symbolic,” because they would have made barely a dent in global carbon dioxide emissions, said Heritage Foundation research fellow Nick Loris, adding: “Frivolous is a good way to describe it.”
NHTSA commissioned ICF International Inc., a consulting firm based in Fairfax, Va., to help prepare the impact statement. An agency spokeswoman said the Environmental Protection Agency “and NHTSA welcome comments on all aspects of the environmental analysis” but declined to provide additional information about the agency’s long-term temperature forecast.
Federal agencies typically do not include century-long climate projections in their environmental impact statements. Instead, they tend to assess a regulation’s impact during the life of the program — the years a coal plant would run, for example, or the amount of time certain vehicles would be on the road.
Using the no-action scenario “is a textbook example of how to lie with statistics,” said MIT Sloan School of Management professor John Sterman. “First, the administration proposes vehicle efficiency policies that would do almost nothing [to fight climate change]. Then [the administration] makes their impact seem even smaller by comparing their proposals to what would happen if the entire world does nothing.”
This week, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned leaders gathered in New York, “If we do not change course in the next two years, we risk runaway climate change . . . Our future is at stake.”
Federal and independent research — including projections included in last month’s analysis of the revised fuel-efficiency standards — echoes that theme. The environmental impact statement cites “evidence of climate-induced changes,” such as more frequent droughts, floods, severe storms and heat waves, and estimates that seas could rise nearly three feet globally by 2100 if the world does not decrease its carbon output.
Two articles published in the journal Science since late July — both co-authored by federal scientists — predicted that the global landscape could be transformed “without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions” and declared that soaring temperatures worldwide bore humans’ “fingerprint.”
“With this administration, it’s almost as if this science is happening in another galaxy,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director and lead economist for the Union of Concerned Scientists’ climate and energy program. “That feedback isn’t informing the policy.”
Administration officials say they take federal scientific findings into account when crafting energy policy — along with their interpretation of the law and Trump’s agenda. The EPA’s acting administrator, Andrew Wheeler, has been among the Trump officials who have noted that U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants have fallen over time.
But the debate comes after a troubling summer of devastating wildfires, record-breaking heat and a catastrophic hurricane — each of which, federal scientists say, signals a warming world.
Some Democratic elected officials, such as Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, said Americans are starting to recognize these events as evidence of climate change. On Feb. 25, Inslee met privately with several Cabinet officials, including then-EPA chief Scott Pruitt, and Western state governors. Inslee accused them of engaging in “morally reprehensible” behavior that threatened his children and grandchildren, according to four meeting participants, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details of the private conversation.
In an interview, Inslee said that the ash from wildfires that covered Washington residents’ car hoods this summer, and the acrid smoke that filled their air, has made more voters of both parties grasp the real-world implications of climate change.
“There is anger in my state about the administration’s failure to protect us,” he said. “When you taste it on your tongue, it’s a reality.”
A woman looks at rising floodwaters from the garage of a home in Soddy-Daisy, Tenn., on Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2018. (Doug Strickland/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Associated Press)
34 Comments on "Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100"
MAGApoop on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 7:58 pm
Well, poop.
Here we go again on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 10:01 pm
Trump is an OLD FUCK…what does he care what is likely to happen in the year 2100?
His main concern is if he pooped or not today
makati1 on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 10:22 pm
By 2100 there will be no humans left. It doesn’t matter if we stop burning FFs today or not. It is too late.
Chrome Mags on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 10:55 pm
“But the administration did not offer this dire forecast, premised on the idea that the world will fail to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, as part of an argument to combat climate change. Just the opposite: The analysis assumes the planet’s fate is already sealed.”
People have to remember when they vote for someone like Trump, the party he represents is first and foremost for Big Business, and even if that means it seals the fate of some in current and many of future generations, then that’s what it means. Nothing more, nothing less.
dave thompson on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 11:16 pm
Ah yes that magic year of 2100. Most of us will be long gone. In the mean time the next five to ten years will be the tell. We shall see.
Cloggie on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 2:34 am
We can only hope for the economic and financial meltdown to arrive.
Sys1 on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 4:18 am
At least, Trump policy is coherent.
Enjoy the present, die tomorrow.
With Obama or with Paris agreement it was all about a bright future of infinite growth with magic rainbow energy coming out of unicorns poo forever.
boney joe on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 5:07 am
Sys1-
The Paris agreement was a starting point, which is a hell of a lot more than can be said about the do nothing Republicans.
Can you reference the section that stated adoption of the Paris agreement meant “infinite growth with magic rainbow energy coming out of unicorns poo forever”. Sounds like a statement straight out of the Turd’s playbook.
The best defense you can make for Trump is that he’s consistent in his desire to end life on earth. Pathetic.
So what would you propose, Sys1? Please educate us.
boney joe on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 5:13 am
Funny, this is what Neutral-Balanced Davyturd wrote about BobInget when Bob posted this same article:
“Oh bob, blaming trump for climate change again. People like you that fly to Nicaragua to overwinter and live and eat lavishly think Trump is the primary reason for climate change as if it started in 2016.”
DavyTurd makes a complete jackass of himself AGAIN. What a despicable fuck.
Sys1 on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 6:26 am
boney joe : When someone 90 years old has a metastatic cancer popping here and there in the whole body, the only thing you propose is praying, sleeping and taking pain killers.
I don’t propose anything regarding global warming because we are absolutely fucked up from A to Z.
Even if we would stop tomorrow to use a single drop of oil/gaz/coal, we would witness a brutal increase of global temperatures because of the lack of global dimming.
We are doomed. Period. Economy will collapse before 2030 and mankind will then enjoy war, famine, biosphere collapse and so on. If a single human is hanging around in 2050, it will be extraordinary.
Davy on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 6:39 am
“The Paris agreement was a starting point, which is a hell of a lot more than can be said about the do nothing Republicans.”
Bonehead, this is not an argument about how green Republicans are. When have they ever been green? This is saying the Paris agreement is a farce so you are a farce claiming it is something. It is a lie and a fake like you extremist liberals are.
“The best defense you can make for Trump is that he’s consistent in his desire to end life on earth. Pathetic.”
That’s a lie that was Hillary objective.
“So what would you propose, Sys1? Please educate us.”
Unlike you Bonehead joe, I am doing and not saying. What are you doing?
“Oh bob, blaming trump for climate change again. People like you that fly to Nicaragua to overwinter and live and eat lavishly think Trump is the primary reason for climate change as if it started in 2016.”
Like I said stupid, what are you doing personally? Bob is a fake green hypocrite like you are from what I can tell. I get sick and tired of you extremist liberals harping about Trump as you live your lavish elitist live playing your “not in my back yard” with things like immigration and your fake green “do like I say not what I do” with things like what should be real green.
“I don’t propose anything regarding global warming because we are absolutely fucked up from A to Z.”
Nonsense, we don’t know what is coming exactly. It is likely the end result but we have been wrong before. In any case we should lower emissions and our footprint for more reasons climate like resource depletion and ecosystem destruction. I guess you could give a shit about that.
“We are doomed. Period. Economy will collapse before 2030 and mankind will then enjoy war, famine, biosphere collapse and so on. If a single human is hanging around in 2050, it will be extraordinary.”
Projecting a future that is possible but not known. You are a nihilist defeatist who wants us to lay down and do nothing and yet feel good because you know, it’s all trumps fault.
Lucifer on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 7:01 am
Trump or no Trump, this game of humans on earth is nearly over. Just go out and enjoy the life you have left.
TheNationalist on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 8:15 am
It doesn’t matter to Trumpians, Orange people can easily survive 7 degree rises. Covfefe! Covfefe! Covfefe!
Sissyfuss on Sun, 30th Sep 2018 9:44 am
Lucifer, why so wistful? You should be ecstatic about the coming mass harvesting of souls. You might even have to build new sulphurous condos to house the coming billions. Forget ” Life is good.” In your business ” Death is good.” Enjoy your coming times of abundance and suffering . You’ve earned it.
Free Speech Forum on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 1:19 am
Nazis, Communists, and Jews all support the police state.
Cloggie on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 1:48 am
Greetings from Nederzee:
https://www.visionair.nl/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/nederzee.gif
Map of the Netherlands with sea level +7 meter, courtesy Trump government.
The good news: Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam will all be gone.
No need for +7 meter. Holland can manage +1 m, but after that it gets critical very soon.
The is below sea level NOW:
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-59eae75bdc8d18822d34a0ac6edcb02f-c
Holland was won from the sea over the past 1000 years. Half of it will probably be gone between 2100-2300.
banretards on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 7:59 pm
Now the stable genius is getting into fake global warming science gig. Youll be lucky if the earth is not a snowball in 2100
https://www.iceagenow.info/
https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/
makati1 on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 8:33 pm
retard, you can deny all you like but it is happening…lol
Anonymouse1 on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 8:56 pm
Still cutting and pasting w/o attribution, as usual, exceptionalturd. As this is a feature with you, not a bug, this is only worth commenting on as your latest dumbass hobby horse, is asking others for ‘sources’ ROLF.
What a complete, and utter dumbass you are. You seem totally oblivious to your own blend of epic stupidity, and hypocrisy.
makati1 on Mon, 1st Oct 2018 9:28 pm
Davy likes to post long winded bullshit that no one reads and never provides any refs to back up his delusions. There are none. He knows it but refuses to exchange his delusions for reality. The reality is that the US is going down. I could give a thousand refs to prove that reality but he would just ignore them.
boney joe on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 5:47 am
DavyDonaldTurd (DDT)-
Nobody owes you, the greatest hypocrite and liar of all, an explanation for anything. As far as you are concerned, who cares since your story is constantly changing. As Anonymouse1 so appropriately pointed out, you are a total dumbass, totally oblivious to your own unique blend of epic stupidity and hypocrisy.
boney joe on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 5:54 am
DavyDonaldTurd (DDT)-
Since you are replying for Sys1, I take it this is just one more of your pathetic sock puppets.
“When someone 90 years old has a metastatic cancer popping here and there in the whole body, the only thing you propose is praying, sleeping and taking pain killers.”
Davy, this is another example of your epic stupidity. So Turd, take away the palliative care, resting, and prayer, what’s your solution dumb ass.
boney joe on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 5:59 am
““We are doomed. Period. Economy will collapse before 2030 and mankind will then enjoy war, famine, biosphere collapse and so on. If a single human is hanging around in 2050, it will be extraordinary.”
Projecting a future that is possible but not known. You are a nihilist defeatist who wants us to lay down and do nothing and yet feel good because you know, it’s all trumps fault.”
Hey Fuck Face Turd, stop attributing statements to me that I did not make. You stupid fuck, this statement was made by your sock puppet, Sys1. You are certifiably NUTS.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 6:18 am
“Still cutting and pasting w/o attribution, as usual, exceptionalturd”
unlike you gimp I say something and it is documented. I also do what I say instead of playing stupid social media games like attacking Americans on the internet because you Canadian feelings are hurt.
Antius on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 6:20 am
Boney Joe is a Marxist troll who shouts, slanders and threatens others with foul language, rather than having to engage in reasoned debate that he/she/it cannot win.
It is a classic left-wing strategy, but it falls short on an anonymous internet forum. Boney Joe doesn’t seem to have cottoned on to that inconvenient fact just yet. Whereas turds may float in the swamp, on the net you can only float by offering persuasive arguments.
This puts Boney Joe in the same position as a fish removed from water, or a rat removed from the sewer. An open discourse is an unsettling and frightening place for a Marxist. They only have their quasi-religious conviction to fall back upon.
Maybe Boney Joe should trace our IP addresses and get us all arrested for various thought crimes? That would be a more ‘liberal’ way of doing things.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 6:23 am
Davy likes to post long winded bullshit that no one reads and never provides any refs to back up his delusions.
Examples?? Or should I write like you do billy like “nuff said, slip slidin, and beat goes on.” You are about as short winded and dumb as they come. At least you do post content even if it is extremist and redundant. You boyfriend anonomouse1 says next to nothing ever.
“I could give a thousand refs to prove that reality but he would just ignore them.
Right, I is call redundant and obsessively saying the same thing off topic over and over. This is the kind of thing senile old men do.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 6:26 am
“Nobody owes you, the greatest hypocrite and liar of all, an explanation for anything.”
Right, but I can kick your ass intellectually and with proper documentation of that intellectual activity and watch you struggle and whine. Nothing you can do about that is there, twink?
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 6:28 am
“Since you are replying for Sys1, I take it this is just one more of your pathetic sock puppets.”
Boney Juan I know who your puppeteer is. I outed you long ago. LOL I don’t play your stupid puppet games. I kick you ass with real comments.
Anonymouse1 on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 11:44 am
“I kick you ass with real comments.”
Translation: I am still the same old delusional dumbass with nothing to do, and nothing to say.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 12:37 pm
gimp, your documented comments are fact. It takes you around a month to actually say anything that is a contribution and really, what you do say is extremist and hateful. You are mostly a boring redundant social media type troll that attacks Americans because your delicate dumbass Canadian sentiments are bruised. Grow up pussy and get some balls.
JuanP on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 5:23 pm
Delusional Davy “Boney Juan I know who your puppeteer is.”
Time stands still for you, doesn’t it? I will let this one pass out of pity.
makati1 on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 7:19 pm
It appears that the old Davy just couldn’t keep his insanity under control any longer. LOL
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 7:23 pm
Shut up billy and say something worth our time. You need to keep your senality under control.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Oct 2018 7:24 pm
senility