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Page added on July 9, 2019

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There’s A 50% Chance Humans Die-Off Within 760 Years

Enviroment

The author of “The Doomsday Calculation” estimates that there is a 50 percent chance the human race will die off within the next 760 years. In the book, author William Poundstone applies the mathematical approach of Princeton University astrophysicist J. Richard Gott III to estimate when humans will officially die off.

According to The Daily Mail, this mathematical method is said to work to predict the likely length of existence of anything of an uncertain duration so long as it’s being encountered at a random point in time.

“Obviously, if you have any specific information affecting the life span of, say, the human race, or a class of stars, you can estimate its life span more realistically,” Gott told the New York Times in 1993.

“But this statistical method allows you to make at least a rough estimate of a life span without knowing anything more than how long something has existed,” he added.

It’s a little surprising humanity isn’t predicted to end sooner with the rate the elite globalists are manipulating everything.

In an article published byVox, Poundstone explained the Copernican method he used to arrive at his prediction. The Copernican principle came from Copernicus, the great Renaissance astronomer, who declared Earth was not the center of the universe.

“Demographers have estimated the total number of people who ever lived at about 100 billion. That means that about 100 billion people were born before me,” Poundstone said.

“Currently, about 130 million people are born each year. At that rate, it would take only about 760 years for another 100 billion more people to be born.  That’s the basis of the claim that there’s a 50 percent chance that humans will become extinct within about 760 years. The flip side of the claim is there’s also a 50 percent chance we’ll survive past 760 years, possibly long past that.”

After graduating from Harvard with a physics degree, Gott used this method to predict the demolition of the Berlin Wall. He estimated that there was a 50 percent chance the wall would come down no later than 24 years from that day, but that it would stand for at least two and two-thirds years more. The demolition of the wall officially began on June 13, 1990, roughly 21 years later, reported The Daily Mail. 

Poundstone wrote: [Gott] reasoned that this prediction had a 50 percent chance of being right. You may feel that 50 percent is too wishy-washy and Gott just got lucky. No problem: The method can supply predictions with any degree of confidence you choose. To achieve 95 percent confidence, you’d make a diagram with the shaded region covering the middle 95 percent of the bar. The prediction range would be wider (from 1/39 to 39 times the past duration). Had Gott used this formulation, his prediction for the wall’s ceasing to exist would have been 0.21 to 312 years after his visit. This is less impressive, given the extremely wide range — but it would have been correct, too.”

Using his own method in 1993, Gott estimated the end of humanity with a 95% probability of accuracy. He wrote about it in a scientific journal called Nature. “Making only the assumption that you are a random intelligent observer, limits for the total longevity of our species of 0.2 million to 8 million years can be derived at the 95 [percent] confidence level,” Gott said, in the abstract for the article.

But here’s where things get really interesting: Bayes’ theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the “many worlds” interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? –The Doomsday Calculation, book description

SHTFplan.com



16 Comments on "There’s A 50% Chance Humans Die-Off Within 760 Years"

  1. ANAL REAPER on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 6:59 am 

    Yeah and there’s a .000000000001% chance AOC is smart.

    Ohmar married her brother to commit immigration fraud and hates the country that she came to.

    Just more idiots the left votes for that pander to the .1% of people.

  2. JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 7:12 am 

    oops this is a zero hedge article:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-08/poundstone-theres-50-chance-humans-die-within-760-years

    This shit triggers me bad. I can’t stand this shit. Fuck you bastards

  3. ANAL REAPER on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 7:41 am 

    Fuck you too, Juan.

    Fat fucking spick.

  4. Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 8:14 am 

    Oops, sorry for losing my shit again everyone. I can’t help myself. Maybe It’s about time I get help from somebody else.

  5. Anal Sower on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 8:31 am 

    AOC for President in 2028 — start contributing NOW!

    Reap want they sow — Make America Brown Again

  6. JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 9:15 am 

    Oops. I am JuanP not Davy

    “Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 8:14 am

    Oops, sorry for losing my shit again everyone. I can’t help myself. Maybe It’s about time I get help from somebody else.”

  7. Robert Inget on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 9:35 am 

    Tropical depressions often begin in the tropics.\
    Off the Western African Coast.

    Decades ago,S. Florida was know as SUB-tropical. That may no longer be the case.

    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-07-05-tropical-disturbance-gulf-of-mexico-southeast-coast

    If this ‘disturbance’ morphs into a hurricane its (predicted) path will sweep across GOM’s oil and gas platforms like no other hurricane before it.

  8. Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 10:25 am 

    I’m bringing inn hay and working on other projects, although my primary occupation is identity theft and sock puppetry.

    Just keepin it real.

  9. JuanP on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 10:49 am 

    OOps, I am JuanP not Davy.
    “Davy on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 10:25 am I’m bringing inn hay and working on other projects, although my primary occupation is identity theft and sock puppetry. Just keepin it real.”

    I guess these obsessions of stalking and playing another identity is related to my multiple personality disorder. I am one fucked up Miami Beach rich asshole. It is amazing how money can keep you out of being homeless like what is normal for poor mentally ill people. Normally somebody like me could not hold a job nor have a stable relationship. Thanks to daddy the money keeps me living off the streets and with people like my stupid wife that will put up with my dysfunction personality.

  10. Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 10:58 am 

    So, a coin flip says 760 years. Or a 95% probability says as many as 8 million years.

    Given humans have been around far less than half a million years, not saying a whole lot.

    And certainly FAR different than the typical fast crash doomer claim of the end beginning within a month, pretty much each and ever month.

    Now, not surprising this is published on a doomer site (SHTF). OTOH, the political mindset of the article, re whining about the elite globalists pretty much ruins any chance of this being reported objectively.

    Typical for doomer ranting.

  11. Dredd on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 1:12 pm 

    The odds (760-50) have it (Beyond Fingerprints: Sea Level DNA – 4).

  12. Mick on Tue, 9th Jul 2019 4:52 pm 

    I think that headline might be a misprint it’s more like t50%chance a die off in 7.6 years

  13. Robert Inget on Wed, 10th Jul 2019 7:42 am 

    BP evacuates staff, shuts in production at four U.S. Gulf of Mexico platforms
    1 MIN READ

    HOUSTON, July 9 (Reuters) – BP Plc on Tuesday began to evacuate and shut in production at four offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico production platforms as a developing weather disturbance moves across the Gulf of Mexico, a company spokesman said.

    The four platforms – Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Mad Dog and Na Kika – produce more than 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to the company. (Reporting by Collin Eaton; Editing by Sandra Maler)

  14. Robert Inget on Wed, 10th Jul 2019 9:04 am 

    Due to the forth of July holiday, Wednesday’s
    EIA repore won’t be in till Thursday @ 10:30 East.

    Rise WTI is due to two factors.
    1) Private surveys call:
    API: Crude: -8.129M Gasoline: -0.257M Distillates: 3.690M Cushing: -0.754M

    2) Fed may keep I rates steady or promise to LOWER by next qtr.

    3) There’s that un-named tropical threatening to
    demolish GOM imports/exports and possibly
    over a million B’s per day production.

    GOM storm can take the blame for higher WTI
    in spite of API FACTS. (That build was from last week) However, ANY cut in domestic production is liable to cause fuel shortages All Summer.

    Day traders jump in to buy beaten down equities
    Before a GOM storm. Planning to sell on (bad) news. Due to war drums* volume increases, holding pipelines and HEAVY oil producers (CNQ)
    (SU) would be wise.

    * Trade war with China, soon all of Asia.
    * Shooting oil wars in the ME.
    * If European leaders decide to do so, they will
    lower booms on USD and take Iran’s offer to ditch the Buck in favor of the yuan trade.
    * We were left with the UK as our ONLY (major) friend in the EU. Trumps reaction to England’s STOLEN ambassador’s emails changed EVERYTHING.

  15. Robert Inget on Wed, 10th Jul 2019 9:35 am 

    I’m mistaken. Famed EIA Repore comes out TODAY.
    Rat Cheer;

    Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 5, 2019

    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week
    ending July 5, 2019, which was 148,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s
    average. Refineries operated at 94.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline
    production increased last week, averaging 10.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel
    production increased last week, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 284,000
    barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports
    averaged about 7.3 million barrels per day, 12.3% less than the same four-week period
    last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
    blending components) last week averaged 871,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel
    imports averaged 181,000 barrels per day.

    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
    Reserve) decreased by 9.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 459.0 million
    barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% above the five year average for this time
    of year.

    Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and
    are at the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased
    while blending components inventories decreased last week.

    Distillate fuel inventories
    increased by 3.7 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average
    for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last
    week and are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Total
    commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 3.8 million barrels last week.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels per
    day, up by 2.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline
    product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 1.2% from the same period
    last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the
    past four weeks, up by 0.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was
    down 3.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.

    If ya can’t se it yourselves this repore is far more bullish than last nights guess.

    Most importantly (to me) Domestic Consumption
    exceded last year’s.

  16. zleo99 on Thu, 11th Jul 2019 8:54 am 

    Don’t be silly! End of Coal, just announced by BHP; End of Oil, as we all know, say 20 years max; 80% chance of 808% human die off within 50 years. That’s my bet!

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