The Peak Oil Demand Debate: A Major Focus at COP 28

The upcoming COP 28 climate conference, scheduled from November 30th to December 12th, is expected to be dominated by discussions surrounding peak oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil demand will reach its peak by the end of the current decade, while OPEC and oil majors strongly disagree and plan to present their arguments at the conference.
The past UN Climate Change Conferences have seen increasing tensions between fossil fuel lobbyists and environmentalists. Last year’s COP27 conference saw a significant increase in the number of delegates from the fossil fuel industry, leading to clashes with climate activists. Environmentalists are calling for a change in the approach, urging policymakers to stop treating industry lobbyists as partners in finding solutions to the climate crisis.
Oil and gas producers strongly believe that fossil fuels will continue to be the primary source of energy for several decades. However, the IEA’s prediction of peak oil demand has sparked controversy. The agency forecasts a 6% increase in global oil demand from 2022-2028, followed by a decline in demand. The IEA also expects global demand for oil used in transportation to start declining in 2026, driven by the rise of electric vehicles and policy measures promoting energy efficiency.
OPEC has criticized the IEA’s forecast, accusing the agency of fear-mongering and risking the destabilization of the global economy. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais emphasized that such narratives would lead to energy chaos and have dire consequences for economies and billions of people. This is not the first time the two organizations have clashed over differing energy policies.
It is no surprise that major oil companies, such as Eni, have aligned themselves with OPEC. Eni’s CEO, Claudio Descalzi, cautions against reducing oil investments, as it could lead to a surge in prices and harm the economy. The peak oil demand debate is expected to intensify during COP 28 in the United Arab Emirates.

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