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Page added on July 23, 2014
The Fertility Conundrum
It is perhaps inevitable that contraception and population growth are controversial topics, given the many perspectives brought to bear on them. Reproductive-health activists focus on family planning and a woman’s right to control her own body. Economists look at the impact on sustainable growth. Governments fret about over-population and unemployment. Health workers worry about sexually transmitted diseases and malnutrition. Striking the right balance among these different viewpoints is no easy task – but much depends on getting it right.
New contraceptive technologies – in the form of condoms, pills, and implantable devices – provide reversible and permanent forms of protection. But their usage varies widely – from just 4.8% of young women in Chad to 84.6% in China – reflecting differences in cost, availability, and cultural norms.
Contraception indisputably brings health and socioeconomic benefits. A2012 study reported that its use averted an estimated 272,040 maternal deaths in 2008, 44% fewer than might otherwise have occurred. Contraception use has also helped less developed economies by raising women’s employment and earnings potential.
But perhaps one of the most important economic effects of contraception concerns the “dependency ratio” – the proportion of available workers to pensioners, children, and the infirm. Lowering the birth rate lowers theoverall dependency ratio – though at the risk of future labor shortages, weaker consumer spending, and reduced productivity. And, as more people live longer, and the relative size of the working-age population falls, the dependency ratio can begin to rise, with serious socioeconomic repercussions, because older people require more health care and draw pensions.
On the other hand, rapid population growth as a result of higher birth rates can threaten the wellbeing of the poorest communities and countries, by altering the dependency ratio at the other end of the scale. Sub-Saharan Africa and the world’s other poorest regions have recorded significantly more than 2% annual population growth in recent years, whereas the demographic trend in the advanced economies of Europe and Asia has been flat or declining
Simulations indicate that the optimal average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime is around 2.3. This is the total fertility rate (TFR) required to maintain current population levels (the replacement rate). Unfortunately, few countries strike the right balance, with country averages ranging from 6.9 (in Niger) to 0.8 (in Singapore). The CIA World Factbook reports that 141 countries (approximately half of the world’s population) fall below the replacement rate, with population decline projected in some cases to reach 20% by 2050.
Some countries, such as Germany and France, are trying to raise their TFR to the replacement level. Others are struggling to bring down their TFR, because of fears about future mass unemployment and social unrest. In all cases, economic circumstances and social pressures will dictate the level and speed of population growth.
That is why much attention has focused on the impact of a growing global population on food demand. A rising population has been associated with starvation and malnutrition in some parts of the world. Until recently, the global population was predicted to surpass 11 billion by 2050, triggeringMalthusian fears. Thanks in part to lower fertility rates in industrialized countries, this projection has been adjusted downward, to about 8.9 billion.
But such fears remain. The risk is that policymakers and campaigners will conflate the problems of food shortages and starvation with that of population management and its long-term social and economic consequences. In fact, according to a forecast in 2002 by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), global food production will exceed the needs of the global population by the year 2030, largely owing to the Green Revolution of the past half-century.
Arguably, the causes of food shortages are to be found in the organization, distribution, and waste of resources, not population growth. The United Kingdom’s Institution of Mechanical Engineers estimated in 2013 that 1.2-2 billion tons of food (30-50% of total food production) is wasted annually. This far exceeds the 230 million tons of food produced in Sub-Saharan Africa.
At the same time, the FAO estimates that 870 million people worldwide – 90% of them living in developing countries – suffer chronic undernourishment. Furthermore, approximately half of the 10.9 million children who die each year do so as a result of poor nutrition, while more than 1.4 billion adults and 40 million children are overweight or obese.
None of this should divert attention from the need to achieve a balance between population growth, appropriate dependency ratios for countries at different stages of economic development, and the fight for women’s reproductive rights. These are long-term issues that require international cooperation and collaborative research. Indeed, like climate change, population balance is a global issue that must be addressed carefully and rigorously – and before it is too late.
Karen Buch is Senior Resident in Radiology at Boston University Medical Center. Duksoo Kim is Professor of Radiology at Boston University School of Medicine, Chief of Vascular and Interventional Radiology at the Boston VA Healthcare System, and Founder of FoodSolutions Without Borders.
33 Comments on "The Fertility Conundrum"
dashster on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 6:43 pm
The United States government doesn’t fret about over-population and unemployment. Immigration goes on at an ever growing pace whether or not their is a Great Recession or whether or not there is a drought in California or $100 oil.
And even on Peak Oil sites talking against US immigration is taboo.
JuanP on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:31 pm
Vasectomies are the easiest form of contraception available for men today. If you are a man and you are done having children please consider getting a Vasectomy, the most practical, efective, and comfortable contraception for men. I did and I am 100% satisfied with the results and so is my wife.
Makati1 on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:36 pm
Discuss birth control with a Mormon, Muslim or Catholic. Bet you don’t get very far.
Plantagenet on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:48 pm
Its too bad liberals killed off the old Zero Population Growth (ZPG) movement and now are proponents of mass immigration into the US. Limiting population growth is perhaps the only way to limit economic growth and create a “steady-state” economy.
JuanP on Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 8:49 pm
Good point Mak, religion is the main obstacle in our attempts to stop population growth, particularly the Catholic church. I was raised a Catholic, I should know. 😉
antiwarforever on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 6:09 am
I had vasectomy after I had my (only) child. I always believed since I was in age to think that the world was overpopulated, and very soon I decided that I wouldn’t have more than one child. Unfortunately only a minority of males think like me, even some gays want to have children now! talk of moral backlash…
herrmeier on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 6:59 am
Vasectomy of course is no solution.
What needs to be disabled is the WOAMAN not the man.
More importantly, if you don’t have children, somebody else will and they won’t be shy to immigrate into your neighborhood.
herrmeier on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 7:02 am
“particularly Catholic”
You’re aware that a large swat of Europe is catholic, yet birth rates below replacement levels.
Now they import high performance muslim negros to do job instead, which surprise, surprise, leads to all kinds of social problems in Europe.
Davy on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 7:20 am
Thanks Herrmeier for wak’ing the Mak. He is such an arrogant ass.
steveo on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 7:25 am
Mak, it depends on where you are and the education level. In the US the vast majority of Catholic women either have or are using birth control.
MSN Fanboy on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 7:31 am
LOL herrmeier, you speak the truth.
Dont worry about population, 🙂 just worry about yourself.
Dont get the snip lol just a drop in the ocean.
What you do will not matter, collapse is baked into the cake 😀
Just make sure YOU SURVIVE,
simonr on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 7:58 am
Maybe if people stopped having so much sex that would work ….
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 8:40 am
Herrmeier, I had a Vasectomy because I didn’t want to have children. I am a selfish bastard and as far as I am concerned, other people’s offspring are other people’s problem.
Yes, many people in Europe are nominally Catholic, but no longer believe in the Church or attend mass or participate regularly in any way. They just go to church for weddings and baptisms, and I don’t mind. And all those European Catholic are violating the church’s teachings every time they use a condom or other contraceptives. Or do all Catholics have sexual performance problems?
antiwarforever on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:00 am
@ jUANp : stop your Catholic bashing. Catholic priests don’t marry and don’t have children. In the Middle Ages, whn Europe was deeply Catholic, European population was stagnant. In fact the sentence “grow and multiply” is not specifically Catholic , but common to all religions of the Book, be they Christians, Jew or Moslems. So I could understand it if you pinned the responsibility of population growth on ALL religions of the Book, but why criticize the Catholics only ? it’s unfair.
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:11 am
I didn’t bash anyone, what I said is the truth as I see it, sorry if I hurt your sensibility
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:14 am
Anti, Of course all monotheistic religions are the same to me, I don’t care whether they are Jews, Christians, or muslims. I am not religious. Only the religious make those distinctions. If you want to go back to the Middle Ages be my guest, I won’t miss you! 😉
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:18 am
Anti, That said, the Jews are only a handful and the muslims are all fighting each other. The reason I selected the Catholic Church is not for bashing, but because from a rational, logic analysis, I reached the conclusion they stand apart from the rest of the crowd. They are the largest, most powerful church in the world with over a billion members and it is very welll organized.
simonr on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:38 am
Juanp
If you want to go back to the Middle Ages be my guest
I believe the point of peak oil is that we are on our way.
Would you not agree that anyone with a deeply held belief will at times chose to ignore certain tenants of that belief to make their life more pleasant. This does not mean that the person does not believe though.
I am no talking about only religion this applies to any belief from Evolution to Catholicism
Davy on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:39 am
Anti, being a Catholic, Juan has a point concerning all the majors. It is the top down that spreads the absurdity. In my parish there are not many large families. People cannot afford it and most women are employed in some way. If the pope suddenly said population control is a must I assure you we would see results.
Makati1 on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 9:59 am
Funny, all of the Catholics I know in the US, are from, and have, large families. But it is when you get to the 3rd world that the numbers really show, and that is where most Catholics live.
According to the CIA Factbook, the five countries with the largest number of Catholics are:
Brazil
Mexico
Philippines
United States
Italy
“…the number of Catholics in the world was about 1.228 billion at the end of 2012…” (That includes baptisms.)
Then there are the Muslims…
“…Islam is the world’s second largest religion. According to a 2010 study and released January 2011, Islam has 1.57 billion adherents, making up over 23% of the world population…”
BTW: At their current rate of increase of 1.8%/yr, that adds ~60,000 new Muslims to the total EVERY DAY. Who’s winning?
Kenz300 on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:04 am
Birth Control Pictures: Types, Side Effects & Effectiveness
http://www.medicinenet.com/birth_control_pictures_slideshow/article.htm
————————-
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Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
Davy on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:05 am
Mak, just like Asia the population overshoot will kill those people you are claiming as winners. Asian and the Muslims are in severe overshoot. In my book that is loosing. Who’s winning Mak?
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:09 am
Simon, Yes, I thought about that while writing it, enjoying the irony at the moment. I am twisted like that. My words sometimes have layers of meaning.
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:21 am
Davy, You made the point I was trying to make better than I did. If only the Catholic church ended its unreasonable opposition to condoms, birth control and family planning services(and I don’t include abortion because I understand the religious sanctity of life isuue at point, eventhough I am pro choice), the population problem would be much easier to solve. And this is about literary interpretation and dogma, not God’s wishes. If there is a God, he can’t possibly be happy with what we are doing.
There are more than 200 million women with no access to family planning and contraception having more children than they wish, mostly for religious reasons. Their children are the difference between population growth or stability.
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:30 am
A clear example of my point above is the case of births to single adolescent Catholic Mexican mothers in the USA. If we could prevent those births in the USA, there would be population contraction, instead of population growth here.
And please visit the Census Bureau’s statistics pages and remember that I am Hispanic before accusing me of being racist or bashing Mexicans.
MSN Fanboy on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:37 am
So… you guys forgot to mention our use of fossil fuels?
Maybe that is the REAL reason for population expansion.
LOL bunch of peak oilers forgeting about peak oil. Religion, still as corrupting as ever.
herrmeier on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 11:40 am
Makati: “Funny, all of the Catholics I know in the US, are from, and have, large families.”
How many Catholics do you know in the US? More than 10? Maybe the large family size has more to do with the fact that you’re an old geezer and 70 years back large families was the norm. Douche bag.
JuanP on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 12:10 pm
Mak, Now that you know me I am afraid you can no longer claim that ALL the Catholics you know in the USA have lots of children.
You know me, I am Catholic, I live in the USA, and I am childfree. So is my wife and many other catholics I know in the USA.
Your statement was more accurate in the past than it is today. Those large Catholic families lasted until the Baby Boomers. Catholic Gen Xers and younger generations are not like that in the USA anymore.
alokin on Thu, 24th Jul 2014 10:37 pm
All traditional societies had some form of birth control. But in Europe the church burned all the midwifes with their knowledge. This is one of the reasons why population went up after the medieval epoch.
It would be important to study what’s left of it. Herbs are cheap or for free and many grow at your doorstep, like wild carrot. You will find good information at sister zeus webpage, the sage femme collective etc. These things work, not 100% but good enough.
Many women do not have access to birth control but herbs can be unsuspiciously prepared in the kitchen.
Makati1 on Fri, 25th Jul 2014 5:17 am
herrmeier, perhaps if I were addressing an adult and not a name calling adolescent, we could discuss the matter.
Here in the Ps, large families are STILL the norm, as in most Catholic countries where the big poop still has some control.
There are many Catholics in the US that are Catholic by tradition and not in reality. They are holiday Catholics, just like holiday Mormons or holiday Protestants. They go to church on religious holidays or for weddings. Seldom at any other time.
The Mormons claim 10+ million members, but only about 20% of those attend church regularly and only about 2% actually live their beliefs enough to qualify to enter the Mormon Temples. I am sure this is also typical statistics of the Catholic Church today.
Makati1 on Fri, 25th Jul 2014 5:22 am
JuanP, I was inclusive of the Catholic Church, and maybe there are some areas that do not have large families, but they cannot be true Catholics then. Birth control is still not allowed as far as I know. AM I incorrect?
It seems that here in the Ps, recently, members of their law making body were threatened with withholding communion from them if they signed a family planing bill that sponsored birth control methods. Or so I read in the news here.
Davy on Fri, 25th Jul 2014 6:14 am
Mak, Who TF are you to say they cannot be true Catholics or call them holiday Catholics. What an arrogant ass. You’re a holiday human IOW only part human the rest is reptilian. You could use some Catholic church and learn about the basics of the religion instead of your demented, hateful, mean spirited rants. You can bash the Catholic Church all you want but a central tenant of the church is humility, forgiveness, community, and of course the “L” word which is never spoken here. You are a sick person. I am tired of you rubbing your heal on me like an old cigarette butt. Everything that is me is in your cross hairs.
Kenz300 on Sat, 26th Jul 2014 8:23 am
If you can not provide for yourself….you can not provide for a child.
Wrap it up……….. use a condom…….