Peak Oil is You

Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)

Page added on May 7, 2020

Bookmark and Share

Population Boom, or Population Bust?


We all know the world population is set to hit 9 billion by 2050. Or is it? Darrell Bricker says it’s not going to happen, and we should prepare to have fewer mouths to feed — not more.

It’s common knowledge that the world population is rapidly expanding, set to hit the 9 billion mark by 2050 and keep growing from there. It’s inevitable that we will face major challenges as we run out of arable land and face food and water shortages as humans vie for the natural resources we all depend on to survive.

The problem is, Darrell Bricker says, that the above scenario isn’t going to pan out.

“Everyone’s always talking about the population problem and how it’s out of control, that we’re having too many babies. That human encroachment will totally destroy our natural habitat. It’s not true,” says the CEO of public affairs for global market research firm Ipsos and co-author of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline.

Furthermore, Bricker says common economic wisdom is influenced by this common belief, ultimately to the detriment of the business community.

“Everyone knows the power of youth is what fuels the marketplace. The fact is, it isn’t that way at all.”

For Bricker, the commonly held belief that the world population is out of control is a form of “vertical knowledge”, or has he likes to call it, something we all know that isn’t actually true. Whether it’s documentaries focused on the problem of overpopulation, politicians giving stump speeches about it, or even the United Nations predicting a dramatic rise in the number of people on Earth (the UN predicts almost 11 billion people by 2100), Bricker says it’s ingrained in our society to believe humanity is growing out of control.

Yes, you read that right: Bricker says even the commonly cited United Nations numbers overshoot the mark, and greatly overestimate how many people will be on the planet in the coming years. In fact, he says it’s unlikely the world population will even hit 9 billion at all. Instead, he says, it will top out at around 8.5 billion in 2030 before it begins to decline. And the decline will not stop.

“Everyone knows the power of youth is what fuels the marketplace. The fact is, it isn’t that way at all.”

Germination: In agriculture it’s commonly believed that we are headed for a world of 9 billion by 2050, and it will keep growing after that. Even the United Nations tells us this. Why are you so confident in your numbers?

Darrell Bricker: We’re getting better at measuring what people do, how they go through the process of living their lives. The decisions that have been made that are going to shape the future have already been made by your grandparents, your parents, and now you. The consequences of those decisions are apparent. Demographics are like glaciers — you can see them coming from a long way off. What we are going to be seeing and experiencing will define the global agricultural marketplace, and all other marketplaces too.

Germination: So even the UN is wrong?

DB: The UN actually has had three different population projections. The one you always read about is the middle one that predicts a continuing rise in global population, over 9 billion by 2050 and as many as 10.9 billion by 2100. The numbers I talk about are closer to what the UN’s lowest estimate is. We will peak at 8.5 billion people and finish the 21st century with the same number of people we have today. We will not have a world of 10.9 billion to feed. We won’t even have 9 billion to feed.

Darrell Bricker is CEO public affairs for Ipsos.

Germination: Why is that?

DB: Three main reasons: urbanization, fertility and aging. UN stats tell us that in 1960, a third of us lived in a major city. Today it is 56%. That’s going to continue to rise as people move from the countryside to the city. We see this every day as rural communities across the country die off. Most people are moving to the city, and it’s happening all over the world. This has massive implications for everything from how long we will live to the size of families. Basically, people are living longer and having fewer children when they live in the city. In Canada we now have more people over 65 than under the age of 50.

Germination: That brings us to fertility. Why do people have fewer children in cities?

DB: As urbanization continues, in most parts of the world, the birth rate is falling to replacement rate or lower. That means most places in the world — namely everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa and India — will see their populations peak and then begin to decline. Just take a look at your own family. How many kids did your grandparents have? How many did your parents have? How many do you have or plan to have? And how many kids do you think your kids will have? In most places in the world, you’ll get a similar answer. On the farm, having lots of kids means more hands to milk the cows and harvest the crops. In cities, children — although we love them dearly — are a liability. Having kids is expensive, as virtually every parent in Canada will tell you.

Germination: How does aging influence this predicted population decline?

DB: We have doubled human life expectancy in the past century. We’re getting bad at making new people and getting really good at keeping existing people alive. In 1920, the average Canadian lived to be in their 50s. Today, it’s 81. By 2036, life expectancy will be 87. Kids born today can expect to live to be 100 if medical science keeps progressing, and it assuredly will.

Germination: Why is this important for industry to consider?

DB: When I think of agriculture, I don’t think of young people. I think of older people. That’s the market you should be going after. Millennials and members of Gen Z, in general, have no money. They’re having a hard time starting their lives. Half of all Canadians age 18-35 live with their parents, some because they have to take care of their parents because they’re living so long. Houses are hard to find not because there are too many people out there, but because the older people who live in those homes aren’t moving out. They’re aging in place. Grandma and grandpa are very happy to stay in their home well into their golden years. This has many implications for the entrepreneurs out there.

Bricker notes that COVID-19 has emphasized the importance of food delivery services.

Germination: Like what?

DB: During COVID-19 people have been talking a lot about food delivery and how important a service it is to have when people can’t leave their home to go to a store or restaurant. That’s what older people deal with every day even when there is no pandemic. When you have mobility issues, you can’t just go out to dine whenever you feel like it. Here’s a thought — deliver food specifically with older people in mind. And what restaurant makes anything for older people in particular? Eighty per cent of Canada’s wealth is with people over the age of 50. They have all the money and there are more of them every day, yet no one caters to them.

“When I think of agriculture, I don’t think of young people. I think of older people. That’s the market you should be going after.”

Germination: That’s a great idea actually, a restaurant designed for older people.

DB: Yet no one seems to have thought of it. Turn down the music so I can have a conversation, and I don’t need a bunch of TV screens and lights flashing at me — although I would like enough light to read what I’m ordering. How about a place at the front of the restaurant where I can leave my mobility device? If people know they can get inside your establishment, they just might come. Mainstream consumer culture doesn’t really give a hoot about older Canadians. They’re all around us and yet we mostly ignore them.

Germination: What’s your advice to agriculture and the seed industry specifically?

DB: Think about older people. Hire them. They want to keep working. They’re healthy enough and they have the knowledge, we just have to adjust our workplaces for them. Is your workplace based on an open concept? That’s fine for millennials and members of Gen Z, but I for one like to have some quiet, some privacy, so I can concentrate. Designing things for young people who we aren’t creating in the first place doesn’t make sense. As for the crops you breed, breed with older people in mind. They generally don’t have the fancy, exotic tastes you see in the average millennial foodie. What are we breeding and growing with older people in mind? Not much. And finally, with more and more people moving to the city, who’s going to grow that food?

Listen to our follow-up podcast interview with Darrell Bricker for his insights on how the COVID-19 pandemic might affect a world of shrinking population numbers (hint: get ready for robot farmers).


23 Comments on "Population Boom, or Population Bust?"

  1. makati1 on Thu, 7th May 2020 6:54 pm 

    As an “older” person, I looked at my diet and, yes, I enjoy the “basics”, not exotic. I cook things I grew up with. I also have a few Filipino dishes I like, and am willing to try new ones occasionally. The ingredients, being “”basic”, are available locally and do not require global shipping, which means they will be available a lot longer then the exotic.

    BTW: Never hit 9,000,000,000! Probably never hit 8B.

  2. JuanP on Thu, 7th May 2020 7:14 pm 

    Mak, do you take your vitamins ? You need them considering where live

  3. Anonymouse on Thu, 7th May 2020 7:15 pm 

    Mak, are you sure your wet market is safe? There might be Covid infections in those slums.

  4. makati1 on Thu, 7th May 2020 7:32 pm 

    Guys, yes I take a ‘One-A-Day’ vitamin/mineral tablet, which I have done since I was a teenager. Part of why I am very healthy now.

    As for the ‘wet market’ scare, they still have not proved that that was where the new flu came from and never will. It came from the US via the military that came for the games. Prove me wrong.

    The wet market here only sells live fish, crabs and shrimp. All else is fresh but dead and butchered. The supermarkets in the US are more likely to be infected.

    BTW: There are ZERO “slums” in my town. ZERO! As you have never been here, and rely on the propaganda from the USMSM, you have a wrong picture of the Philippines. Yes, there are “slums” in the cities just as there are in the US and every other country. SO?

    But the government here is already moving to change that in the near future with a new program to encourage business’ and people to move back to their home province and out of the slums.

    Where is that happening in the US?

  5. Theedrich on Thu, 7th May 2020 8:59 pm 

    The problem is POLLUTION, not population. The 1st World uses the 3rd World not only for its slave labor, but also as its trash dump.  China and India are often cited for their disregard of ecology, but the rest of the “developing” countries also contribute massively to ecological destruction.  While preaching puritanical hygiene and goody-goodness to the deluded masses of Whiteland, virtue-signaling, Western-headquartered oligarchies hornswoggle the outhouselands into doing their dirty work and accepting their waste matter.

    Despite the publicity efforts of a few greeny groups, the oceans are being poisoned with plastic, radioactivity and other venom.  Arable land is disappearing as a result of chemical overfertilization, the draining of subterranean aquifers and general exhaustion.  (Never mind global warming.)  And the majority of large predators outside of zoos and farms have been decimated as a result of hunting and poaching.  Yes, many deer abound in northern North America to cause vehicular wrecks, but the big cats that used to control their numbers have been mostly eliminated as too dangerous to humans.  Meanwhile alien species, transported from their original habitats, are causing problems in many places.  (Recently, “murder hornets,” most unwelcome immigrants from Japan, have invaded North America’s west coast.)

    Et cetera.  Economic “growth” and BAU ensure the concomitant growth of severe problems of all types.  It is not population growth per se, but the attendant demands and needs of advertisement-driven masses that threaten the globe with collapse by Tainteresque overcomplexification.

  6. makati1 on Thu, 7th May 2020 11:18 pm 

    Let Amerika move all of their industry back to the 50 and watch the pollution exceed that ins China. Go for it!

  7. SocialRevolutionComing on Fri, 8th May 2020 1:04 am 

    There is one thing I like about getting old. Eventually you stop giving a shit. I don’t care

    They were a guy on CBC news YouTube channel comment section demanding Trudeau execution. CBC news did not remove the comment.

  8. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th May 2020 2:45 am 

    MASKS Are The New CHAINS.

    They want us to go out and declare “i’m your slave” because of a fake flu.

  9. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 8th May 2020 3:38 am 

    Masks 1918 San Franciso, “Spanish flu”:

    “No mask, go to jail”

    Nothing new under the sun.

    Like everybody else the Germans have built new Corona hospitals within weeks:

    No patients. Duh.

    Trump supporters won’t blame Trump for Corona. “He did what he could”:

    Barry Eichengreen: US unemployment at 20%, will get worse:

    Real numbers are underreported. Many state government unemployment management programs are written 40 years ago in a language nobody understands (Clog: and the new Americans won’t be able to update these programs, “too difficult and shit”).

    “Brazil is facing ‘economic collapse’ due to its coronavirus lockdown – opposed by President Bolsonaro – economy minister warns”

    Food shortages looming.

    Many quietly love the lock-down:

    “50% Dutch wish to continue to work from home after Corona”. Similar figures in other countries. Working from home means less commuting and less pollution. 2020 is going to be a vintage CO2 year.

    German Aerospace Center DLR working on renewable flying for 70 persons:

    Includes hydrogen.

  10. Davy on Fri, 8th May 2020 4:42 am 

    Justice served and still the rabid dims cry foul:

    “The Justice Department Drops Flynn Case”

    “Jonathan Turley remarks that the Flynn case represents one of the most ignoble chapters of the Special Counsel investigation. Notably, the motion itself could lay the foundation for suing on the basis of malicious prosecution. In the motion below, the Justice Department stresses that “the citizen’s safety lies in the prosecutor who … seeks truth and not victims, who serves the law and not factional purposes, and who approaches [the] task with humility.” It also establishes that there was never a satisfaction of the materiality element to the criminal allegation…It further notes that key figures like Andrew McCabe “cut off” objections to the overly aggressive pursuit of Flynn. It describes an effort of former Director James Comey, McCabe, and others to skip common protocols to bag Flynn at any cost on any grounds. While malicious prosecution cases are notoriously difficult to prove (particularly in a case with a voluntary plea), the motion reinforces the view of many of us that the Justice Department was engaged in a campaign to incriminate Flynn — a campaign that now appears entirely detached from both the evidence and legal standards supporting a criminal charge. Such a lawsuit could allow Flynn to pursue discovery into the motivations and actions of figures like McCabe. The motion relieves President Donald Trump of the necessity of a pardon for Flynn. However, it hardly ends the matter. Congress has expressed an interest in investigating new and troubling evidence. It has every reason to do so. The new evidence obviously does not comport with the standard narrative of the media from the outset of the Russian investigation. Many will defend this case and its underlying abuses as “standard” practices. I have certainly seen abuses in my career as a criminal defense attorney, but I have never seen a record as troubling as this one in prosecutors seeking the creation rather than the investigation of criminal conduct. Even if such abuse is deemed standard by apologists for Mueller, it is neither an excuse nor a license for such misconduct”

  11. Davy on Fri, 8th May 2020 4:48 am 

    The Chinese are completely obvious with guilt:

    “China Daily Censors Opinion Article Written By EU Officials; Removes Any Mention Of China As Virus Origin”

    “BuzzFeed’s Alberto Nardelli points out that the European Union failed to discuss edits, including the removal of references to the spread of COVID-19, in an op-ed jointly published by all 27 member states in a Chinese-owned newspaper. Some European officials did not find out about the secret edits Brussels made with the Chinese until after the opinion piece was published. One diplomat told BuzzFeed there was no discussion about the edits with Brussels, saying there was “irony of the incident happening just a few days after World Press Freedom Day on Sunday.” Another diplomat said Brussels’ decision to make the edit as per China’s request is “weak,” with another diplomat saying member states being shunned from knowing about the edits is “really bad.”

  12. Davy on Fri, 8th May 2020 4:52 am 

    Thank you China for the BRI:

    “COVID-19 Wreaks Economic Havoc Across Europe”

    “The European Commission has released its Spring 2020 Economic Forecast which shows that COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on Europe’s economy. The collective GDP of the EU-27 was expected to grow 1.2 percent this year but it is now forecast contract 7.4 percent due to the pandemic. By contrast, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that the Financial Crisis “only” led to a contraction of 4.5 percent for the EU-28 back in 2009. The current crisis has now pushed the EU into the deepest recession since its foundation with unemployment rates set to rise drastically. Last year, unemployment across the bloc was 6.7 percent and it is now forecast to grow to 9 percent this year.”

  13. joe on Fri, 8th May 2020 10:59 am 

    the recent judgement by the german supreme court for ‘review’ of the purpose of the Bundesbank underwriting bonds issued by the ECB is litterally a stab in the back for the euro. without saying so, germany is warning the markets that germany is not comfortable buying Italy. the poorest eussr states will have to borrow themselves to recovery and not impose any austerity, if they try tax and austerity again, then the eu will not be viable. basically germany will have to either put its hands into its pockets and pay for kissing chinas ass and allowing milions of superspreaders to kill off Italys elderly. a likey WTO brexit will hit the EUSSR like another lockdown. since few britons will travel anyway this year, then now is their chance to see the world of an eussr without the uk spending into it. time for Germany to admit the truth. the eussr is an emerging german empire. as we found out (and the US knows), empires cost money.

  14. I AM THE MOB on Fri, 8th May 2020 11:05 am 

    “F— you motherf—–, there’s no pandemic,

    *Man Stopped From Shopping at Miami Beach for Not Wearing Mask Goes mask off*

    I have a right to buy groceries without being forced to participate in your f—— terrorism,”.

  15. whitey supertard president directory of fbi comey on Fri, 8th May 2020 11:30 am 

    just to let you guyes know you’re bing watched.

    we dont’ go after 10 billion muzzies we have on file becasue we ratehr do the easy work of watching “the depahtid” and figre out out enemy — the irishman — general (the honest one) whitey supertard president michael flynn

    like the us navy who bury muzzie carcases according to muzzie customs but it’s not a muzzie (even when muzzie has a PhD in muzzying) the FBI is about lovin muzzie more.

    *mind blown*

  16. its muzzie peaceful ramadan 70 kabooms and 262 went to see muhamad the pedifiler so far on Fri, 8th May 2020 11:33 am 

    muzies get extra credit during muzzie ramandan very peaceful

    better pay extremely close watch on those two FGM NASTY in the hall of congress.

    They may go “inner struggle” to get extra credits during ramadan

  17. its muzzie peaceful ramadan 70 kabooms and 262 went to see muhamad the pedifiler so far on Fri, 8th May 2020 11:54 am 

    India: In viral video, Muslim says coronavirus is Hindu conspiracy, “when the time comes, we’ll kill them all”

    thanks supertad big muzzie beard

    muzies get extra credit during muzzie ramandan very peaceful

    better pay extremely close watch on those two FGM NASTY in the hall of congress.

    They may go “inner struggle” to get extra credits during ramadan

  18. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 8th May 2020 12:01 pm 

    “The headline monthly jobs number was the worst ever, and the previous two months were revised down. The headline unemployment rate increased to 14.7% (probably closer to 20%). These are horrible numbers, and there is more bad news to come.”

    And the Dow is up
    Dow 30

  19. SocialRevolutionComing on Fri, 8th May 2020 12:07 pm 

    I had a similar argument at the grocery store a month ago . I was ordered to wash my hands, I look at the store employee and I asked him, how many dead cashiers they had since the beginning of the scamdemic. He could not answer me. Won’t be able to keep that hoax going for ever.

    I still stick to my following predictions. Supply chain collapse, followed by social revolution, followed by electrical grid shutdown, finally end of the human race.

    Trudeau in his daily speech mentioned something about supply chain. So he wants, (or they want) to restart some kind of manufacturing but keep COVID restrictions in in place. They want people to go back to work wearing mask and gloves. You have to keep the fear alive. They want a reduce supply manufacturing chain running (food, clothing) and at the same time they want to continue this COVID hoax, fear tactics and manipulations.

    They started this COVID hoax without analyzing the effects on the supply chain first. This is how stupid the fucking elites are. They are just worthless stupid pieces of shit. They went too far using fear and now people don’t want to go out and work.

    I still stick to my prediction: Supply chain collapse, followed by social revolution, followed by electrical grid shutdown, finally end of the human race.

  20. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 8th May 2020 1:54 pm 

    “time for Germany to admit the truth. the eussr is an emerging german empire. as we found out (and the US knows), empires cost money.“

    Not really.

    “EU’s top court claims it has sole jurisdiction over European Central Bank’s money-printing decisions, rejecting Germany’s concerns“


  21. Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 8th May 2020 2:02 pm 

    “The US Economy Will Unravel From Here On – Charles Hugh Smith on Jim Kunstler Podcast (Audio)”

  22. joe on Fri, 8th May 2020 2:31 pm 

    cloggie, the Bundesbank is underwriting the ecb purchases. its ok, you dont have to admit it bro, its up to germany its hot your decision bro, you have no power in this matter, only partisanship.

  23. Davy on Fri, 8th May 2020 5:01 pm 

    cloggo, is deflecting his Eurotardland’s own demise which is ahead of China and the US. His Anglo derangement is a neurosis IOW he has really hurt pride. Repeated ass kicking do these things.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *