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Is China’s Population About to Start Shrinking?

Is China’s Population About to Start Shrinking? thumbnail

The Chinese population is projected to shrink this year for the first time since the Great Famine that took place between 1959 and 1961.

China is currently the world’s most populous country, with a population of more than 1.4 billion people – more than one sixth of the entire world’s population.

However, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s population increased by only 480,000 between 2020 and 2021. In contrast, the annual population growth a decade ago was 8 million.

In the late 80s, China’s fertility rate was 2.6, before remaining a steady 1.7 from the mid 90s. In 2020, it dropped to 1.3, and then again to 1.15 in 2021. In comparison, both Australia and the United States have a fertility rate of 1.6.

This decline comes despite China abandoning the one-child policy in 2016, and even introducing the three-child policy – backed by tax benefits and other incentives – last year.

The rapidly decreasing fertility rate has been attributed to a number of factors, including people having become used to small families, the rising cost of living, increasing marriage age (which means women are giving birth later in life and having fewer children) and strict COVID measures.

Based on the current trend, the annual fertility rate is forecast to drop from 1.15 to 1.1 from now to 2030… and forecast to remain there. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences is anticipating an annual decline of 1.1% in the Chinese population, resulting in a population of only 587 million in 2100.

The working age population of the country is set to decrease at an even larger annual rate – 1.73% – forcing China to direct resources towards their increasing elderly population. Needing to invest in retirement and healthcare for the elderly, the government will have to sacrifice economic growth and productivity.

As a result, developed countries who rely on imported goods, will likely look elsewhere to source them. Emerging economies such as India, with a rapidly growing population (and the nation set to overtake China as the world’s most populous) will likely take China’s place in the manufacturing sector in the following years.


30 Comments on "Is China’s Population About to Start Shrinking?"

  1. makati1 on Sun, 24th Jul 2022 5:52 pm 

    All this article says is that China MAY have the same problem all the Western countries already have, shrinking populations and more elderly. But, maybe, by the time it is a problem for them, there will be a different world? We shall see.

  2. Biden's hairplug on Mon, 25th Jul 2022 1:50 am 

    China thinks it is ready to take on the US militarily in East-Asia:

    “Participating in the military conflict in the Taiwan Straits will only mean suicide for US troops”

  3. Biden's hairplug on Mon, 25th Jul 2022 2:46 am 

    Could this be the trigger that will lead to an armed conflict China-USA?

    “Pelosi muddies the waters of the Taiwan Strait”

    “US military worries about a retaliatory incident in the South China Sea if she persists with Taiwan visit plan”

  4. makati1 on Mon, 25th Jul 2022 5:31 pm 

    The dying US desperately needs a big war to distract the serfs who are sharpening their pitchforks and gathering their ropes.

    But, maybe that is just the last act of their ongoing suicide? Nukes over the US? War to the last Amerikan.

  5. suxs on Wed, 27th Jul 2022 7:26 pm 

    Clogged…. I mean Hair Plug is at least consistent in misrepresenting the truth.

    “Pelosi Visit to Taiwan Supported with Equal Intensity by Dems. & Republicans”~~Business Insider

  6. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 4:21 am 

    sucks, you’re wrong:

    “Biden administration working behind the scenes to convince Pelosi of the risks of traveling to Taiwan”

    “U.S. military does not support Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan”

    The US military knows it will get its ass kicked.

    But indeed the fools in Congress unisono want to go:

    “Democrats and Republicans agree: Pelosi should visit Taiwan despite Biden’s warning”

    I do hope that the old tart steps into that plane, prompting China to explode and the Chinks probably won’t stop until they have arrived in Tasmania, south of Australia and the North-Koreans will have overrun South-Korea.

    And don’t for a minute think that Japan will lift a finger to help the US against China, despite forced rhetoric to the contrary. Japan will love it that they have their sovereignty back from the US. China will respect Japan’s sovereignty and Japan knows it.

  7. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 6:02 am 

    This just in:

    “Kim Jong Un warns he is ready to use nuclear weapons against the US and South Korea”

    North-Korea is one of the best Trump cards China has, after Russia. China can use North-Korea to intimidate Japan. All NK needs to do is launch a nuke, 20 km out of Nagasaki harbor and Japan gets the message. No US sorties against China from Japan.

    NK has Seoul in a day.

  8. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 4:23 pm 

    Change of the guard coming up, the End of the American Era:

    “Xi Jinping warns Joe Biden against ‘playing with fire’ over Taiwan in two-hour call”

    makati has only little time left to relocate, if he’s smart… So he won’

    “China commentator warns of ‘shocking military response’ if Pelosi visits Taiwan”


    Inevitably, China and the US are locking horns, from which there is no way back anymore, for neither of them. America pretends to be the #1, but in reality has already been superseded by China, that no longer can afford to back down for this yapper, barking at its front gate.

    Officially it’s 30T (China) vs 25T (USA), but in reality China has already double the GDP, if you compensate for 40% unearned US GDP, based on reserve currency.

    (and the big winners are going to be the EU and Russia, sssshhh, don’t tell anybody)

  9. makati1 on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 4:37 pm 

    Cloggie, I’m already in the best place to watch the West disintegrate. Why would I relocate to someplace more dangerous, like the Netherlands? Tens of thousands are abandoning the West every day for safer shores, like the Philippines. There are at least 100,000 Americans living here, and more coming everyday.

    The new Prez here is pro China and Russia, just like the last one. Who runs YOUR country? Answer: An unelected WEF brainwashed asshole in Brussels taking you down the bug eater’s path.

  10. makati1 on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 4:41 pm 

    BTW: If Amerikans were really intelligent, they would not have two fugitives from a mental hospital as Prez and VP and a corrupt old bitch in power. The Chinese would be doing the US a favor if they offed her, but they won’t. They don’t operate like the Amerikan mafia.

  11. Biden’s hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 4:56 pm 

    America is totally divided over the Pelosi trip. Super kike and CFR chieftain Richard Haass is in favor:

    Couldn’t agree more!

  12. Biden’s hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 5:15 pm 

    “I’m already in the best place to watch the West disintegrate”

    You can’t get it into your head that if the US and China clash, the north of the Ps, where you live, is almost guaranteed to become a battle area. I have been warning you for a decade about this, and now the hour of truth has arrived. But you are stubborn to listen. At your own peril.

  13. Biden’s hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 5:27 pm 

    The demise of white Britain:

    “White pupils are now least likely to go to university after drive to make intakes more diverse“

    The first real British male in the Tory leadership race landed on #6 and is long out of the race.

    Of all European countries, British politics, media, academia, institutions, entertainment, in short the elite, is the darkest of them all, not necessarily the population itself (that “honor” goes to France).

    But unlike France, white Britain has zero political representation.

  14. makati1 on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 6:43 pm 

    No guarantees, Cloggie. Do you think you will be safe in the coming war with Russia? Your “leader” wants one. It is almost certain.

    All Russia has to do is cut you off from everything you need, like energy, food, etc. They don’t even have to fire a shot, just stop your imports.

  15. Biden’s hairplug on Thu, 28th Jul 2022 10:54 pm 

    You gotta love this kike, in the way he exposes himself and his murderous motivations:

    This is the idiot behind “give war a chance”, beating the war drums against Iraq.

    Result of his consultancy: US 6 trillion further in dept, Iraq and Syria Iranian client states, with their troop at the Israeli border, massive loss of US prestige.

    Now he wants to push for Pelosi to go to Taiwan, because you see, China can’t fight and the US can starve China into submission via proteins deprivation. He is saying this for days now. He wants to organize a proteinscoust. This the material we are dealing with.

    Fortunately, Americans have 300 million firearms at their disposal, and boy can they be made to good use and undertake a project that is 100 years overdue.

  16. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 2:35 pm 

    Sooner or later the entire world’s population of cancer chimps will start to shrink.

    Die-back & Die-off are baked in. It’s how nature rolls and the puny humans have no say in it.

    Record highs roast Northwest; heat wave looms for rest of Lower 48

    Record-breaking highs over 110 degrees are predicted in interior Oregon and Washington state, while a sprawling heat dome may spread over the central and eastern U.S. next week

    “Seattle and Portland have been setting daily records, and triple-digit temperatures are bleeding south into the highly populous Willamette Valley. Concern is growing for vulnerable populations too, since only 44 percent of homes in Seattle and 78 percent of residences in Portland have air conditioning.”

    Tic Toc

  17. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 2:40 pm 

    Rain Bombs keep falling on their heads….

    All-time record-breaking rainfall brings flash flooding to St. Louis

  18. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 2:44 pm 

    I know they didn’t mean it, but the humans broke the jet stream and now they will pay the price over & over until their infrastructure is smashed to shit & they are all gone.

    Jet Stream Stokes Both Deadly Midwest Flooding and Northwest Heat

    “Deadly floods are slamming the US Heartland. More than 2,000 miles away, dangerous heat is scorching the Pacific Northwest. The same phenomenon is to blame for both.

    A massive bend in the jet stream — narrow bands of high winds encircling the Earth — is causing the havoc. In the Northwest, the jet steam has curved far north, allowing hot air to surge into Oregon and Washington. In the Midwest and Appalachia, it’s dipped south, bringing cool from Canada that’s colliding with with tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico, triggering ruinous downpours in Missouri and Kentucky.

    “What goes up must come down,” said Jennifer Francis, a climatologist with the Woodwell Climate Research Center. “The strong northward bulge in the jet stream over western states responsible for the extreme heatwave in the Pacific Northwest is always coupled with a downstream southward dip.”

  19. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 2:51 pm 

    ‘It’s plunder’: Mexico desperate for water while drinks companies use billions of litres

    As drought grips cities like Monterrey, people queue with buckets for brackish water. But Coca-Cola and other firms are still extracting groundwater

    Unlike the city’s poorer areas, Monterrey’s wealthy districts have higher water quotas, with tap water available 12 hours a day. The disparity has led to protests and arson attacks on water pipes. Photograph: Julio César Aguilar/AFP/Getty

    “The disparity has led to protests and arson attacks on water pipes”

    Why not? When humans have nothing left to lose of course they are going to try and fuck up the haves infrastructure.

  20. makati1 on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 6:21 pm 

    There is plenty of food, water and energy for all, but it is wasted. Car washes, huge lawns, places like Vegas with all of its fountains, bio-fuel from edible corn, wasted outdoor lighting, one person per car, etc. There are no shortages that are not caused by greedy, thoughtless, mostly 1st worlders. The landfill society we need to eliminate.

  21. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 7:03 pm 

    fake mak, so?

    You have as much chance of getting the humans to change their behaviour as you do of getting great white sharks to go vegan and climb fruit trees.

    If you lost weight and went to collage for 9 years you would not be fat and stupid anymore.

    You could play this retard “if only” game for a decade. In ten years you will still be stuck in the same spot.

    The humans will NEVER give up the goodies. The humans are wind-up monkeys built by evolution as some cosmic joke to see how many different life forms can be created to reduce gradients.

    The human’s behaviours are fixed. Progressives like to play the “it’s cultural” card, but why has almost all of Asia (4 billion) copied the West and are still trying for more? Because they are a bunch of slant eyed cancer monkeys same as us round eyed cancer monkeys. Why would you copy a way of life that is clearly destroying the biosphere? Because they are slaves to the MPP same as all life.

    It’s musical chairs, nationally and individually, from now until eco doomsday and the only thing that will stop it is a nuke war which will bring a different kind of eco dooms day.

    If only we were different than we wouldn’t be ourselves.

  22. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 7:09 pm 

    It’s week 7th of this endless record heat wave in SE China. Yesterday the town of Rongjiang set its all time high with 40.2C beating the old record from 1974. Today new all time high at Jinhua with 41.3C. Humidity is oppressive and nights doesn’t offer any minimal relief.

    Hey I know. Why don’t all them chinks flee to Siberia to cool down?

    Update on the Siberian Heat Wave:Today was another hot day in Northern Siberia with temperatures above 36C well north of 60N. Chumpuruk (64N) beat its all time record for the 2nd day in a row with 36.4C.

    Perhaps not.

  23. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 7:24 pm 

    Sea levels in Britain rising at double the rate of a century ago

    British residents regard as ‘unremarkable’ temperatures that decades ago would have broken records

    Once great is now an island of fucking retards.

  24. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 7:26 pm 

    Europe’s Wildfires In 2022 Have Nearly Quadrupled The 15-year Average: Report

    The total number of wildfires since the beginning of 2022 in the European Union is nearly four times the average of 15 years for the same time period

  25. FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 7:40 pm 

    For years I’ve said you doom will be decided in the Arctic. Here’s an update.

    Heat waves thawing Arctic permafrost

    “In the northernmost region of the earth the arctic permafrost is melting at an accelerated rate.”

    “The landslides signal a risk for the potential release of carbon that has been stored in the permafrost for tens of thousands of years.”

    “The study’s results reveal a strong, 43-fold increase in retrogressive thaw slump activity and a 28-fold increase in carbon mobilization. The increase also happens to coincide with an extreme heat wave that occurred in northern Siberia in 2020 in which temperatures reportedly reached 38 degrees Celsius (more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit)—record-breaking temperatures for the Arctic region.”

    “The strong increase in thaw slump activity due to the Siberian heatwave shows that carbon mobilization from permafrost soils can respond sharply and non-linearly to increasing temperatures,”

    “..can respond sharply and non-linearly..”

    Remember that.

    There are many dozens self reinforcing feedback loops underway & none of them can be stopped. Eventually they will puke out more CO2 & methane annually than the highest years of human emissions. When? It’s hard to say. The computer eggheads have only recently been incorporating some of them in their models. The models don’t do much for me. It’s what the paleoclimate record shows that scares me. You can get big changes, jumps, in a very short period of time. Like as fast as a single decade.

  26. Ted Wilson on Fri, 29th Jul 2022 10:10 pm 

    china will force every women to have 3 children. after all thats the only country which enforced 1 child policy.

    they know how to get things done at tank point (remember the tiananmen square)

  27. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 30th Jul 2022 4:33 am 

    “china will force every women to have 3 children. after all thats the only country which enforced 1 child policy.

    they know how to get things done at tank point (remember the tiananmen square)”

    We in the white world should do that too. But even with that, it will take decades to get back at replacement level procreation.

    And we should stop worshiping entrepreneurs, perhaps shoot a few for all I care. They are way too many of them. Everybody wants to be stinking rich via being an entrepreneur. And since there are not enough employees available, they begin to push for inviting third worlders in. Everything for the profit! That needs to stop. An entrepreneur is a low-life and nothing else. The honor should move back to the skilled worker, not the share-holder. F*ck you, Hitler was right! DNA above profit.

  28. Hello on Sat, 30th Jul 2022 9:25 am 

    >>> Hitler was right!

    too late Clog, too late. Not enough birth, yet growth must go on. We imported italians first, then kanacken and east europeans, but now the only thing left is niggers and ragheads to keep the party going. Kiss europe goodbye. It’s gone. Niggerization is in full swing.

  29. Biden's hairplug on Sat, 30th Jul 2022 9:50 am 

    You are wrong, it is 5 for 12, but not too late:

    The US is almost over. After that, we can make a fresh start: closing the borders, we won’t have much fuel for economic growth anyway. We’re going back to the fifties, impose Draconian tax on the childless (“wanker tax”), impose little bullying measures like no drivers licence before 30, if you have no kids, no voting, obliged to wear some sign if you have no kids (star of david?, something like that), huge financial incentives to support kids, to be paid for by childless, etc. etc.

    Piece of cake.

  30. Cloggie on Sat, 30th Jul 2022 10:26 am 

    This is how Dutch sounds with a Swiss accent, this first time I hear that in my life:

    Video shows 4 of the most beautiful cycling routes in Europe by this Swiss cycling professional.

    Happy cycling!

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