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How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong

How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong thumbnail

Few thought it would arrive so quickly. Now we’re facing consequences once viewed as fringe scenarios.

For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and, according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.

Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.

Science is a process of discovery. It can move slowly as the pieces of a puzzle fall together and scientists refine their investigative tools. But in the case of climate, this deliberation has been accompanied by inertia born of bureaucratic caution and politics. A recent essay in Scientific American argued that scientists “tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold” and said one of the reasons was “the perceived need for consensus.” This has had severe consequences, diluting what should have been a sense of urgency and vastly understating the looming costs of adaptation and dislocation as the planet continues to warm.

In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group of thousands of scientists representing 195 countries, said in its first report that climate change would arrive at a stately pace, that the methane-laden Arctic permafrost was not in danger of thawing, and that the Antarctic ice sheets were stable.

Relying on the climate change panel’s assessment, economists estimated that the economic hit would be small, providing further ammunition against an aggressive approach to reducing emissions and to building resilience to climate change.

As we now know, all of those predictions turned out to be completely wrong. Which makes you wonder whether the projected risks of further warming, dire as they are, might still be understated. How bad will things get?

So far, the costs of underestimation have been enormous. New York City’s subway system did not flood in its first 108 years, but Hurricane Sandy’s 2012 storm surge caused nearly $5 billion in water damage, much of which is still not repaired. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey gave Houston and the surrounding region a $125 billion lesson about the costs of misjudging the potential for floods.

The climate change panel seems finally to have caught up with the gravity of the climate crisis. Last year, the organization detailed the extraordinary difficulty of limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), over the next 80 years, and the grim consequences that will result even if that goal is met.

More likely, a separate United Nations report concluded, we are headed for warming of at least 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. That will come with almost unimaginable damage to economies and ecosystems. Unfortunately, this dose of reality arrives more than 30 years after human-caused climate change became a mainstream issue.


Conventional wisdom, in the 1950s,

on the pace of major climate change:

8,000 years

Each large square = 100 years

1960s through the ’80s:

Centuries or millenniums

1990s to today:

5 to 50 years

Conventional wisdom, in the 1950s, on the pace of major climate change:

8,000 years

Each large square = 100 years

1960s through the ’80s:

Centuries or millenniums

1990s to today:

5 to 50 years

The word “upended” does not do justice to the revolution in climate science wrought by the discovery of sudden climate change. The realization that the global climate can swing between warm and cold periods in a matter of decades or even less came as a profound shock to scientists who thought those shifts took hundreds if not thousands of years.

Scientists knew major volcanic eruptions or asteroid strikes could affect climate rapidly, but such occurrences were uncommon and unpredictable. Absent such rare events, changes in climate looked steady and smooth, a consequence of slow-moving geophysical factors like the earth’s orbital cycle in combination with the tilt of the planet’s axis, or shifts in the continental plates.

Then, in the 1960s, a few scientists began to focus on an unusual event that took place after the last ice age. Scattered evidence suggested that the post-ice age warming was interrupted by a sudden cooling that began around 12,000 years ago and ended abruptly 1,300 years later. The era was named the Younger Dryas for a plant that proliferated during that cold period.

At first, some scientists questioned the rapidity and global reach of the cooling. A report from the National Academies of Science in 1975 acknowledged the Younger Dryas but concluded that it would take centuries for the climate to change in a meaningful way. But not everyone agreed. The climate scientist Wallace Broecker at Columbia had offered a theory that changes in ocean circulation could bring about sudden climate shifts like the Younger Dryas.

And it was Dr. Broecker who, in 1975, the same year as that National Academies report playing down the Younger Dryas, published a paper, titled “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?” in which he predicted that emissions of carbon dioxide would raise global temperatures significantly in the 21st century. This is now seen as prophetic, but at the time, Dr. Broecker was an outlier.

Then, in the early 1990s, scientists completed more precise studies of ice cores extracted from the Greenland ice sheet. Dust and oxygen isotopes encased in the cores provided a detailed climate record going back eons. It revealed that there had been 25 rapid climate change events like the Younger Dryas in the last glacial period.

The evidence in those ice cores would prove pivotal in turning the conventional wisdom. As the science historian Spencer Weart put it: “How abrupt was the discovery of abrupt climate change? Many climate experts would put their finger on one moment: the day they read the 1993 report of the analysis of Greenland ice cores. Before that, almost nobody confidently believed that the climate could change massively within a decade or two; after the report, almost nobody felt sure that it could not.”

In 2002, the National Academies acknowledged the reality of rapid climate change in a report, “Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises,” which described the new consensus as a “paradigm shift.” This was a reversal of its 1975 report.

“Large, abrupt climate changes have affected hemispheric to global regions repeatedly, as shown by numerous paleoclimate records,” the report said, and added that “changes of up to 16 degrees Celsius and a factor of 2 in precipitation have occurred in some places in periods as short as decades to years.”

The National Academies report added that the implications of such potential rapid changes had not yet been considered by policymakers and economists. And even today, 17 years later, a substantial portion of the American public remains unaware or unconvinced it is happening.



105 Comments on "How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong"

  1. JuanP on Tue, 12th Nov 2019 11:43 pm 

    Forgot to mention, remember Donald Chump highlighting Harley-Davidson’s Missouri manufacturing plant as a “shining example of American employment”?

    The plant is now shuttered and its 800 jobs now exist in Taiwan.

    Trump the huckster and grifter in chief.

  2. Davy on Wed, 13th Nov 2019 5:45 am 

    Wow one of the few posts where the lunatic is not fdoing ID theft or socks. Whats up with that?? JuanP on Tue, 12th Nov 2019 11:38 pm. Juanpee first where is your reference or are you afraid to post it. LOL

    “MISSOURI IS THE STATE WHERE MOVING VANS MOST OFTEN TAKE RESIDENTS OUT OF THE STATE Outbound moves: 51%”
    Good juanpee, I hope people pass through and move out. Maybe they will move down with you in your overpopulated ugly south Florida. I have a great life here. Missouri is a great place to live if you like it. You act like you are hurting me or something. I live here I know the good and bad. You are just a 3rd worlder with a Miami Beach attitude. Go back to your shit hole country please.

    OH, I have been here all my life and it has never got this hot:
    “It has gotten as hot as 121 degrees Fahrenheit with 100% humidity.”

    I am glad we still have bugs and things because in many places the food chain is collapsing.
    “There are bugs. Lots and lots of bugs. Ticks, mosquitoes, flies and things”

    “poorly funded public schools, crumbling infrastructure — and they say that “Missouri is a boring state to live in.” By far, the largest group leaving the Show Me State is young people ages 18 to 34.”
    Inner city schools are bad but there are many very good schools far better than south Florida. So, people leave because they are boring and move to other boring overcrowded places. You make of a place what you make of it not the other way around.

    “Missourians commenting on Reddit say the state has other drawbacks, including the weather. “Southern hot and humid summers for five months of the year and northern-like winters means rapidly moving from one extreme to the other,”
    Weather extremes are great. IMA when the weather is nice there is no better place to be. Most outdoor people don’t mind the weather and it makes things interesting.

    “A 2018 report lamented that Missouri has a “brain drain” because of a lack of high-paying jobs. “We don’t need any more minimum wage, no-experience-required jobs,” Hank Robinson, a researcher from the University of Missouri at Columbia told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.”
    “factories have been closing around Kansas City, causing that metro area to lose 1.9% of its manufacturing jobs over the past year, the BLS says. A Harley-Davidson motorcycle plant in K.C. shut down in May 2019, putting 800 people out of work.”
    JuanP the state still boasts some great companies and a diversity of industries and services. Manufacturing has been in decline for years but that is typical of many areas in the US.

    Any comment like you just made is completely one-sided and extreme or IOW you have a chip on your shoulder and trying too hard.

  3. Davy on Wed, 13th Nov 2019 5:48 am 

    “The plant is now shuttered and its 800 jobs now exist in Taiwan.”

    800 jobs out of 6 million people?? Do the math stupid oh, I forgot you didn’t finsih high school. I think you need a better example there juanpee.

    JuanPee, why did you decide to comment with your real ID instead of Davy ID theft or your multiple lunatic socks? What happened?

  4. Davy on Wed, 13th Nov 2019 6:17 am 

    Won’t be long and Idaho will be like south Florida:

    “Idaho Residents Fume Over State-Wrecking Californians And Other Inflationary Transplants”
    https://tinyurl.com/yge9qvz3 zero hedge

    “As we have documented for years, Californians have been fleeing the Golden State in droves thanks to untenable costs of living which include exorbitant taxes levied by inept bureaucrats. The annual fires, poo-covered streets, and devastating earthquakes are icing on the cake. And as we’ve also documented, states experiencing the largest influx of ‘enlightened’ Californians include Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Oregon, Washington and Idaho… “If you come here and love it, everything’s fine,” said 2002 California transplant Rev. Bill Roscoe. “If you come here and fly that California flag in your driveway and have stickers on your car that say, ‘Santa Cruz,’ there’s going to be some hard feelings.”… According to the most recent Treasure Valley Survey conducted by the Idaho Policy Institute at Boise State University in 2018, over 70% of those asked said the region is growing too fast, vs. 50% who said the same in 2016. “Over the course of two years,residents of the Treasure Valley have gone from being divided about whether the pace of growth was too fast or about right, to adopting the belief that it is too fast by a large margin,” the survey reports. During a September town hall meeting held at a strip mall library, resident Yvette Zoe – who moved to Boise in 1972, said “I know that you can’t stop growth, but what are we going to do about our quality of life here?”

  5. Davy on Wed, 13th Nov 2019 6:18 am 

    BTW Where is stupid today? Maybe his chronic depression is acting up.

  6. Dredd on Wed, 13th Nov 2019 4:47 pm 

    Great article NYT.

    Some of the problem is software (In Absentia).

  7. Bloomer on Wed, 13th Nov 2019 10:52 pm 

    We are hooped. If any humanoids make it thru climate Armageddon..they will look back and say what the fuck were they thinking

  8. makati1 on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 12:51 am 

    Absolutely Bloomer! They will think we were all insane. But, I doubt there will be any human, or even higher life forms, left by then.

  9. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 2:53 am 

    The entire Australia seems to be on fire, yet the Australian government refuses to debate climate change:

    https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/buschbraende-in-australien-klimawandel-dazu-sagen-wir-lieber-nichts-a-1296269.html

    “Schweigen im Angesicht des Feuers”
    (Silence in the face of fire)

    Increased temperature means increased chance on forest fires.

    #BeautifulCleanCoal

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/emergency-leaders-climate-action/

    “EMERGENCY LEADERS: AUSTRALIA UNPREPARED FOR WORSENING EXTREMES”

  10. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 3:08 am 

    “Der Westen ist tot – wir wissen es nur noch nicht – das Ende des liberalen Universalismus”

    (The West is dead, it is just that we don’t realize it yet. The end of liberal universalism)

    https://www.spiegel.de/plus/krise-des-freien-westens-amerikas-geschlechtsumwandlung-a-00000000-0002-0001-0000-000166862979

    Note, it is the very liberal der Spiegel who is saying this!

    The author is a Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian philosopher, but a system darling. He writes a.o. for the NYT.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Krastev

    The article is behind a pay-wall, but the title says enough.

    “Die USA wollen keine Weltpolizei mehr sein und auch keine Fackelträger der Freiheit. Amerika habe sich einer Geschlechtsumwandlung unterzogen, sagt der Philosoph Ivan Krastev.”

    (The US no longer wants to be the world’s policeman or carrier of the banner of liberty. The US underwent a sex change)

    Rest assured that der Spiegel hates this conclusion.

    Me, not so much.

    Because the next question is: what comes next? Answer:

    – multipolar world replacing universalism
    – return of tribalism, most of all visible in the US (rise of white nationalism). Huntington was right.
    – return of archaism, IS as a small sign of things to come
    – end of Marxist modernity (“Frankfurter Schule”)
    – end of gender equality ans return of gender roles (back to the fifties family ideal)

    A new world map, one of those two possibilities:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/which-future-world/

  11. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 3:22 am 

    Venice – Acqua Alta

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BKk84P8Ih4

    Venice flooded. This is not the result of climate change, they had this as long as the city exists since ca. 400 AD. It is tides and wind, pushing water high up in the Adriatic.

    Yet is DOES show pictures that could become reality all over the world in 100 years time: cities under water, for ever. Main candidates: first of all Holland proper (not the Netherlands) and Bangladesh. Maldives and Seychelles. Miami:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbiRNT_gWUQ

  12. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 3:40 am 

    “Boris Johnson news – live: Labour cuts Tory poll lead as EU says Brexit can still be stopped at general election”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-brexit-general-election-updates-today-candidates-deadline-a9202446.html

    http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

    Labour 8.6% behind, back from double digits.

    This going to be a Brexit election. This is going to be an unprecedented strategic voting election, to the tune that not only voters vote for that party, they believe can bring them Leave/Remain, no, even politicians volunteer to withdraw not to split Leave/Remain vote.

    One can already safely predict that the real state of affairs, namely a near 50-50 split over Brexit, will materialize in the final outcome, next month, with the serious possibility of yet another hung parliament.

    I personally hope for a narrow victory of Leave and a subsequent soft Brexit.

    The chances for European Renaissance are best served with a Britain outside the EU politically (clearing the way for Russia entering the Common European Home), but remaining close economic ties EU-UK.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_European_Home

  13. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 3:50 am 

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_European_Home

    Gorbachev is the ONLY politician in the world, who I would trust blindly, with the more managerial Putin as a good second.

    “Trust” defined as: “acting in the common European interest”.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_European_Home

    “Though Gorbachev used a similar phrase in a 1985 statement, calling the Old World “our common house,”[2] perhaps the most famous use of the term arose when Gorbachev presented his concept of “our common European home” or the “all-European house” during a visit to Czechoslovakia in April 1987. In his main address in Prague he declared:

    We assign an overriding significance to the European course of our foreign policy…. We are resolutely against the division of the continent into military blocs facing each other, against the accumulation of military arsenals in Europe, against everything that is the source of the threat of war. In the spirit of the new thinking we introduced the idea of the “all-European house”… [which] signifies, above all, the acknowledgment of a certain integral whole, although the states in question belong to different social systems and are members of opposing military-political blocs standing against each other. This term includes both current problems and real possibilities for their solution.”

    The US of course wants to keep Europe as its private bitch and tries to keep the EU and Russia apart. For good reason. Because if the EU and Russia would realize their Common European Home, as Macron wants to see happening together with Gorbachev and Putin, America is going to be Europe’s bitch, like it was between 1492-1783. Especially a balkanized US.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/russia-plays-the-european-card/

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/12/03/paris-berlin-moscow/

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/05/10/boreas-rising-paris-berlin-moscow/

  14. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 4:39 am 

    “(The West is dead, it is just that we don’t realize it yet. The end of liberal universalism)”

    More Bunk, the cloggo does not realize liberalism is far from dead but it is not the dominant force it was since the 80’s with internationalization and the rise of US Hegemony. Liberalism is giving way to populism that is these days much more conservative. Like any “ism” liberalism and its associated globalism has gone too far and the global public is reacting to this excess. Liberalism is not dead and gone with a new cloggo right wing fantasy taking its place. This is still a multicult world with multiple ideologies battling in decline.

  15. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 4:42 am 

    “A new world map, one of those two possibilities:”

    The cloggo’s kindergarten map. Let’s get out the Crayola’s.

  16. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 4:47 am 

    “The chances for European Renaissance are best served with a Britain outside the EU politically (clearing the way for Russia entering the Common European Home), but remaining close economic ties EU-UK.”

    Europe will never let Russia back into its “home” not with its menacing military and mafia ways. It should be the hope of all reasonable people that Russia is brought in from the cold.

  17. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 4:52 am 

    “Gorbachev is the ONLY politician in the world, who I would trust blindly, with the more managerial Putin as a good second.”

    LOL and blind you are. Putin is the greatest stateman on Earth in many ways. He has given Russia pride but he is taking a heavy economic toll on his common people. The military is overly large at the expense of Russia’s people. Putin can be a liar and a thief but currently he is already at the top so his underlings are the thieves now. Putin is brilliant but only honest when he needs to be. A great stateman at his level cannot be truly honest but he can be fair if Russia is not directly at risk. He is far more honest than most all American and European politicians but that is not saying much.

  18. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 5:08 am 

    “It’s The Federalist Fantasy Of A Bolder EU Which Is “Brain Dead”, Not NATO”
    https://tinyurl.com/rc6gohg strategic culture

    “Oh to be Emmanuel Macron. The French president appears to be on the edge of some kind of meltdown, following his fatuous comment about NATO being “brain dead”. And glancing at the slow growth in the EU – which is hitting Germany for the first time, as well as of course France – you can see how Macron is starting to panic… The EU is not working. Its economy is hitting new lows, which is even affecting non-eurozone countries like Sweden, and Britain’s more joined up departure will be one more unedifying message to its members: time for a rethink of the project. The problem is that the ‘rethink’ idea will be as divisive as ever. In one camp, Macron and his pro federalist buddies in Brussels who are addicted to the EU udder tend to think dramatically, rather than rationally when thinking of ‘reforming’ the EU project. ‘Reform’ for them means taking more power in an anti-democratic fashion and then hope that, say a new EU army (from larger national EU defence budgets), bigger EU grants towards research (to compete with the US), minimal wages across 27 member states and, most radically, overhauling the Schengen Agreement with a new, single asylum policy, will all collectively muster greater political support. Moderates across Europe though – perhaps what he might call ‘Eurosceptics’ – might argue that in such a crisis that the EU is in, that a decaling and downgrading of the projects ambitions might be a way to re-connect with EU voters… The problem with Macron is that he is so entrenched in his ultra conservative neo conservative past. Even in his letter published earlier this year in the Guardian he talks of a new EU looking more to Africa for future investment, perhaps a glimpse of Conrad like old values of France and its colonial legacy. Contrasted to the NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg who has a more modern, realistic view of France and old Europe. “I strongly welcome efforts to strengthen European defence… But the EU cannot defend Europe” he said recently at an event celebrating 70 years of NATO’s existence. “This is partly about military might. After Brexit, 80% of NATO’s defence expenditure will come from non-EU allies.” That must have hurt Macron. But if the EU can’t even defend itself, it is ‘brain dead’ to think of any plans to expand itself and its powers?”

  19. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 5:12 am 

    “Global Supply Chains Imploding As Quarter Of German Firms Plan To Leave China”
    https://tinyurl.com/vkr9yxu zero hedge

    “The Bussiness Confidence Survey 2019/20 published by the German Chamber of Commerce in China, in cooperation with KPMG in Germany, finds that almost a quarter of German companies operating in China are preparing to relocate production facilities…Among the German companies leaving or actively planning to leave China, about 71% blame increasing labor costs; 33% cited unfavorable policy environment; 25% said the US-China trade war, and 22% said market access barriers. Of the respondents who’ve resorted to relocation, 52% have chosen Southeast Asia, 25% India, 19% Central/Eastern Europe, and 17% Western Europe. Only 5% of respondents said they were going to move operations to the US, contrary to President Trump’s claim that companies exiting China will be rushing to the US…Jens Hildebrandt, Executive Director of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, said: “2020 is likely to be characterized by uncertainty, stemming from an unresolved US-China trade dispute related with a decelerating Chinese and global economy.” German firms also said market access barriers and regulatory hurdles stunted their growth in China, with 66% of firms saying they’ve encountered either direct or indirect market access restrictions. The key finding in the report is that the business environment in China remains downbeat into 2020. The disruption of complex supply chains in China means the global economy will likely not bottom in early 2020 as equity markets have already priced in.”

  20. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 5:20 am 

    “Lacalle: Why A “Crypto-Yuan” Won’t Threaten The Dollar”
    https://tinyurl.com/s52h6vt diacalle

    “A state-owned cryptocurrency is, in itself, a contradiction in terms. The main reason why citizens want to use cryptocurrencies or gold is precisely to avoid the government or central bank monopoly of money. For a currency to be a world reserve of value, widespread means of exchange and unit of measure, there are many things that need to happen, but the first pillar of a world reserve currency is stability and transparency. China cannot disrupt the global monetary system and dethrone the US dollar when it has one of the world’s tightest capital control systems, a lack of separation of powers and weak transparency in its own financial system…The U.S. dollar is the most traded currency in the world, and growing according to the Bank of International Settlement. The Yuan is 4% of the currency trade. This is because the financial balance of the US is the strongest, legal and investor security is one of the strongest in the world, and the currency and capital markets are open and transparent. Unfortunately for China, the idea of a gold-backed cryptocurrency starts from the wrong premise. China’s own currency, the Yuan, is not backed by either global use nor gold. At all. China’s total gold reserves are less than 0.25% of its money supply. Many say that we do not know the real extent of China’s gold reserves. However, this goes back to my previous point. What confidence is the world going to have on a currency where the real level of gold reserves is simply a guess? Furthermore, why would any serious government under-report its gold reserves if it wants to be a safe haven, reserve status currency? It makes no sense. The Yuan is as unsupported as any fiat currency, like the U.S. dollar, but much less traded and used as a store of value. As such, a cryptocurrency would not be backed by gold either. Even if the government said it was, and deployed all its reserves to the cryptocurrency, what confidence does the investor have that such backing will be guaranteed when the evidence is that even Chinese citizens have enormous limits to access their own savings in gold? China’s gold reserves are an insignificant fraction of its money supply. Its biggest weakness comes from capital controls, lack of open and independent institutions safeguarding investors and constant intervention in its financial market. China’s Yuan may become a world reserve currency one day. It will never happen while capital controls remain and legal-investor security is limited.”

  21. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 5:26 am 

    “Exposing John Brennan’s CIA Trump Task Force”
    https://tinyurl.com/t4r4wly unz review

    “There is considerable evidence that the American system of government may have been victimized by an illegal covert operation organized and executed by the U.S. intelligence and national security community. Former Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper, former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director Jim Comey appear to have played critical leadership roles in carrying out this conspiracy and they may not have operated on their own. Almost certainly what they may have done would have been explicitly authorized by the former President of the United States, Barack Obama, and his national security team.”… Trump’s surprising victory forced a pivot, with Clapper, Brennan and Comey adjusting the narrative to make it appear that Trump the traitor may have captured the White House due to help from the Kremlin, making him a latter-day Manchurian Candidate. The lesser allegations of Russian meddling were quickly elevated to devastating assertions that the Republican had only won with Putin’s assistance. No substantive evidence for the claim of serious Russian meddling has ever been produced in spite of years of investigation, but the real objective was to plant the story that would plausibly convince a majority of Americans that the election of Donald Trump was somehow illegitimate. The national security team acted to protect their candidate Hillary Clinton, who represented America’s Deep State. In spite of considerable naysaying, the Deep State is real, not just a wild conspiracy theory. Many Americans nevertheless do not believe that the Deep State exists, that it is a politically driven media creation much like Russiagate itself was, but if one changes the wording a bit and describes the Deep State as the Establishment, with its political power focused in Washington and its financial center in New York City, the argument that there exists a cohesive group of power brokers who really run the country becomes much more plausible. The danger posed by the Deep State, or, if you choose, the Establishment, is that it wields immense power but is unelected and unaccountable. It also operates through relationships that are not transparent and as the media is part of it, there is little chance that its activity will be exposed.”

  22. REAL Green on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 6:17 am 

    “New Catalyst Can Produce Hydrogen From Seawater”
    https://tinyurl.com/vg7mg7j clean technica

    “One way to make hydrogen is to split water into its component parts — hydrogen and oxygen. Until now, that process required pure water free of contaminants and lots of electricity…Pure fresh water is a scarce commodity in the world today and getting more scarce all the time. Using what little is available to make hydrogen may not be the best use for it. But researchers at the University of Houston say they have developed a new catalyst composed of inexpensive non-noble metal nitrides that makes it possible to split seawater at low voltages. Their work is described in Nature Communications. According to the University of Houston, Zhifeng Ren, director of the Texas Center for Superconductivity at UH and a corresponding author for the paper, says a major obstacle to using seawater has been the lack of a catalyst that can effectively split it to produce hydrogen without creating free ions of sodium, chlorine, calcium and other elements found in seawater. Once released, those elements can settle on the catalyst, making it inactive. Chlorine ions are especially problematic, in part because chlorine requires just slightly higher voltage to free than is needed to free hydrogen…And so the search for a hydrogen economy continues. Pure water is much too valuable to use to make hydrogen, but if a way can be found to use seawater or wastewater, the possibilities for hydrogen from non-polluting sources are much greater than previously thought possible. There is a secondary benefit from this research. In addition to making hydrogen, it could also be used to purify seawater into fresh water for drinking or irrigation. As sources of fresh water become more scarce, that other purpose could turn out to be more important to people than hydrogen.”

  23. REAL Green on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 6:18 am 

    “Electric car future may depend on deep sea mining”
    https://tinyurl.com/y42ntndr faster than expected

    “Demand is soaring for the metal cobalt – an essential ingredient in batteries and abundant in rocks on the seabed. Laurens de Jonge, who’s running the EU project, says the transition to electric cars means “we need those resources”. What is ‘deep sea mining’? It’s hard to visualise, but imagine opencast mining taking place at the bottom of the ocean, where huge remote-controlled machines would excavate rocks from the seabed and pump them up to the surface. The concept has been talked about for decades, but until now it’s been thought too difficult to operate in the high-pressure, pitch-black conditions as much as 5km deep. Now the technology is advancing to the point where dozens of government and private ventures are weighing up the potential for mines on the ocean floor.”

  24. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 6:36 am 

    I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentatrate on my own blog. All posts under the handles Davy and REAL Green over the last several months are not me. If they were, that would make me a liar and a hypocrite.

  25. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 6:42 am 

    “More Bunk, the cloggo does not realize liberalism is far from dead but it is not the dominant force it was since the 80’s with internationalization and the rise of US Hegemony.”

    Empire dave ignores that his Marxist buddies and loyal water carriers at der Spiegel say so.

    Empire dave calls everything “bunk” that he doesn’t like. The defeat of the US in Iraq and Syria is more than enough proof that US hegemony is over and hence the US promoted liberal order.

    “The cloggo’s kindergarten map. Let’s get out the Crayola’s.”

    Extremely childish reaction. A real reaction would be to offer a counter vision. Empire dave won’t. He has no vision for the future, other than the entire world falling mysteriously flat on its face, with almost everybody dying (“planning for 1 billion survivors”) and even more mysteriously the US as “the last man standing”.

    “Europe will never let Russia back into its “home” not with its menacing military and mafia ways.”

    What do you mean with “back”. Russia was never part of a united Europe, but has aspired to follow the example of Eastern Europe to also become a member of the European framework since 1991, or even 1987 (Gorbachev). With the British anti-Europeans on the way out, nothing stands in the way to realize the Greater European vision, with sufficient power to deal with American upstarts and incorporate a part of these too in Global Eurosphere. Not that you deserve it considering your actions in the 20th century.

    Empire dave will call this vision “bunk” because it conflicts with his juvenile “US as the last man standing”. That’s ok, he will find out the hard way. But most tellingly he admits that this vision could very well be true, because he has his plane ticket to Italy and escape route already in his drawer, just in case.

    ““It’s The Federalist Fantasy Of A Bolder EU Which Is “Brain Dead”, Not NATO”
    https://tinyurl.com/rc6gohg strategic culture”

    This rightwing club does NOT represent Russian officialdom as represented by Putin and Gorbachev. Russia since czar Peter the Great has aspired to connect to European mainstream, but was brutally interrupted by the jewish-led bolshevik revolution. Russia is now thoroughly post-jew, where the US is in the process to descend in a maelstrom of inter-ethnic violence as a result of the globalisation attempts of the hapless country’s kosher leadership.

    Dream on with your “last man standing”, a US media meme. Trump will probably the last president of the US (in it’s present shape).

  26. Davy on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 7:22 am 

    “Officials Are Using The Word “Disaster” To Describe The Widespread Crop Failures Happening All Over America”
    https://tinyurl.com/qrv8uj9 zero hedge

    “We are witnessing “unprecedented” crop failures all across the United States, but the big mainstream news networks are not talking too much about this yet.”

    “ The endless rain and horrific flooding during the early months of this year resulted in tremendous delays in getting crops planted in many areas, and now snow and bitterly cold temperatures are turning harvest season into a complete and utter nightmare all over the country”

    “We are being told that “more than 300 daily records” are likely to be broken, and this will be the final nail in the coffin for this harvest season for countless numbers of farmers. And even without this latest wave of bitterly cold weather, this was already going to be the worst year for U.S. agriculture that most people can remember.”

  27. JuanP garbage on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 8:07 am 

    This is from stupid:

    Davy said “Officials Are Using The Word “Disaster̶…

    Davy said Oops, sorry dumbasses. Wrong links for my insane c…

    More Davy ID Fraud said The lunatic hillbilly said: JuanP garbage on Thu,…

    Davy said I am spending less time on this lame unmoderated f…

  28. Antonio Claudio Martinez, III on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 8:17 am 

    Davy,

    Know what would do wonders for your prickly personality? A good old-fashioned Missouri ass whipping.

  29. JuanP garbage on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 8:25 am 

    This is from stupid. I guess he is having a triggered event.

    Davy Sock Puppet said full woke supremacist muzzies jerk maximum newspea…

    Antonio Claudio Martinez, III said Davy, Know what would do wonders for your prickly…

    #deporttheturd”

  30. Sissyfuss on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 8:57 am 

    Extremes are becoming the norm in politics, weather, and societal mores. Humanity can’t seem to reign in their corporeal lusts for acquisition through violence and subterfuge. And the most insane practice is increasing human numbers on a planet of finite resources. We are entering the bottleneck in a state of denial and excuse. I have become the proverbial canary in the coal mine choking on methane with the workers ignoring my demise. Our economic malaise is just another symptom of our fatal disease of hubris that will prove to be fatal in the not too distant future. Einstein described our pathology but we are too busy doing the same thing to recognize it.

  31. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 12:22 pm 

    “Tesla = 3rd Most Valuable Automaker In The World”

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/13/tesla-3rd-most-valuable-automaker-in-the-world/

    Not bad for a newcomer and e-vehicle company.

    Top-6:

    https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/11/Top-25-Automakers-by-Market-Cap-Google-Sheets.png

  32. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 12:34 pm 

    Least Valuable Spammaker in the world

    Me

    Not bad for a fraud with no job, no education, and lots of time on my hands.

    Top-Spam

    https://peakoil.com/enviroment/how-scientists-got-climate-change-so-wrong/comment-page-2#comment-713357

  33. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 12:38 pm 

    “The Europeans are coming for US power markets”

    Solar, wind, storage.

    https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2019/11/14/the-europeans-are-coming-for-us-power-markets/

    “Prodded by their own governments into slashing emissions and getting out of coal, European companies are a step ahead of their U.S. counter parts… But the penetration of renewables into the grid has has gone further in Europe.”

  34. Cloggie on Thu, 14th Nov 2019 12:55 pm 

    Long rime, no see: tidal energy:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/11/14/the-great-potential-of-tidal-energy/

    Global potential 100 GW and less intermittent than solar and wind.

  35. majece majece on Fri, 15th Nov 2019 12:18 am 

    As for me, information about Argumentative Essay Outline Writing from https://payforessaywriters.com/argumentative-essay-outline will help you to achieve success. It means a lot these days

  36. K Martins on Fri, 15th Nov 2019 12:11 pm 

    Yes, the Greenland ice sheet melted in the summer of 2019. And it grew in 2017 and 2018.
    Yawn.
    Can’t you do better than this?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqmez68DMMc

  37. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:53 am 

    “3 Gigawatt Wind Power Project In Wyoming Moves Closer To Approval”
    https://tinyurl.com/yjbcqsyk clean technica

    “The Chokeberry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Project is slated to have a capacity of 3 gigawatts or 3,000 megawatts. A BLM web page says the project’s location is south of Rawlins, Wyoming on nearly 220,00 acres. It also states that if completed, the huge wind farm will be able to provide power to almost one million homes…When there is adequate wind, about how many homes could the wind turbine farm power? It’s always windy in south-central Wyoming! This site has NREL Class 5, 6, and 7 wind resources – the highest-quality onshore wind resources. We estimate about 1 million households…The Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Project is an approximately $5 billion investment in renewable energy generation. Again, a separate project – The TransWest Express Transmission Project is an approximately $3 billion investment in the western US power grid, designed to help make the grid stronger, more reliable, and able to deliver more renewables. It is a regional transmission network expansion project.”

  38. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:54 am 

    “Now valued at over $100B, NextEra owes its rise to wind power”
    https://tinyurl.com/yjx77c7y renewable energy world

    “Two decades ago, when coal ruled U.S. power generation, a Florida utility plowed some of its extra cash into a wind farm atop a desolate Oregon plateau. It was the start of an unimaginably successful bet. This year, that company — now named NextEra Energy Inc. — became the world’s first utility with a market capitalization of more than $100 billion, thanks largely to its clean-power business. It’s almost twice as valuable as the oil major ConocoPhillips and has developed enough wind and solar farms across the U.S. and Canada to power the entire nation of Greece. Shares have doubled in four years, outperforming virtually every other stock in the industry.”

  39. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:55 am 

    “Methane emissions from coalmines could stoke climate crisis”
    https://tinyurl.com/y42ntndr faster than expected

    “Coalmines are belching millions of tonnes of methane into the atmosphere unchecked, because policymakers have overlooked the rising climate threat, according to new research. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the amount of methane seeping from new and disused coalmines may have reached just under 40m tonnes last year. The potent greenhouse gas is a major concern among climate scientists because it has a far more powerful effect on global temperatures than carbon dioxide. The global energy watchdog estimates that one tonne of methane is the climate equivalent of 30 tonnes of carbon dioxide. This would put annual coalmine emissions broadly in line with the international aviation and shipping sectors combined.”

  40. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:56 am 

    “HIGH LEVELS OF LEAD IN SOIL POSES THREAT TO NYC URBAN GARDENS”
    https://tinyurl.com/yf5hldgu agriculture

    “What’s the hottest locally sourced crop among New York’s urban farmers? Turns out, it’s toxic lead. A startling new study has found dangerous levels of the heavy metal sitting in the soil among the kale, carrots and arugula sprouting in backyards and community gardens across the city. Researchers from CUNY took soil samples from 746 gardens citywide and found the majority were “contaminated” — posing “significant risks to human life and ecological systems,” according to the report published in the Journal of Agronomy and Animal Industries. Researchers tested thousands of samples and found that Brooklyn’s dirt was laced with the most lead.”

  41. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:57 am 

    “Climate Whiplash: Wild Swings in Extreme Weather Are on the Rise”
    https://tinyurl.com/yfuswabn yale 360

    These wild swings from one weather extreme to another are symptomatic of a phenomenon, variously known as “climate whiplash” or “weather whiplash,” that scientists say is likely to increase as the world warms…“There has been an assumption that the main thing we have to contend with climate change is increased temperatures, decreased snowpack, increased wildfire risk” on the West Coast, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Those things are still true, but there is this other dimension we will have to contend with — the increased risk of extreme flood and drought, and rapid transitions between the two.”… In the future, weather whiplash could mean an intense drought year followed by record rains that don’t allow planting or that wash fertilizer into waterways. Extreme swings between freezing and thawing can kill buds on trees, or lead to rain in northerly climes that is followed by freezing weather, forming a barrier of ice that prevents foraging animals like caribou from reaching vital winter browse…Experts say one cause of climate whiplash may be warming-related disruptions in the polar vortex, which in turn affects the jet stream. The vortex is a wall of wind that constantly circles the Arctic and prevents warm air from penetrating the cold regions, and cold air from moving south. When it is stable, the polar vortex produces normal, seasonal weather. But an unstable polar vortex causes abnormal and extreme weather. One example of this is something that has come to be known as a “flash drought.” The phenomenon has existed for many years, but has become more intense and variable in recent decades, scientists say. While a normal drought is caused gradually by a lack of precipitation, a flash drought comes on quickly and is caused by unusually high temperatures, strong winds, and cloudless days, which allow increased solar radiation. This leads to high levels of evapotranspiration. The weather can become so hot, so fast that it quickly sucks large quantities of moisture out of the soil and can lead to major crop losses. Flash droughts occurred across the southern United States in late September, right after torrential rains had soaked the region.”

  42. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:58 am 

    “America loves the idea of family farms. That’s unfortunate. By Sarah Taber”
    https://tinyurl.com/v7mrbb9 energy skeptic

    “Family farming’s difficulties aren’t a modern problem born of modern agribusiness. It’s never worked very well. It’s simply precarious, and it always has been. Idealizing family farms burdens real farmers with overwhelming guilt and blame when farms go under. It’s crushing. I wish we talked more openly about this. If we truly understood how rare it is for family farms to happen at all, never mind last multiple generations, I hope we could be less hard on ourselves. Deep down we all know that the razor-thin margins put families in impossible positions all the time, but we still treat it like it’s the ideal… One collaborative tradition that’s been very public about how their community-size farms function is the Hutterites, a religious group of about 460 communities in the U.S. and Canada numbering 75-150 people apiece. Despite the harsh prairies where they live, and farming about half as many acres per capita as neighboring family farmers, Hutterites are thriving and expanding when neighboring family farms are throwing in the towel. Their approach — essentially farming as a large employee-owned company with diverse crops and livestock — has valuable lessons. Outsiders often chalk up the success of the Hutterites, who forgo most private property, to “free labor” or “not having to pay taxes.” Neither of these are accurate. Hutterite farms thrive due to farming as a larger community rather than as individual families. Family farms can achieve economies of scale by specializing in one thing, like expanding a dairy herd or crop acreage. But with only one or two family members running a farm, there simply isn’t enough bandwidth to run more than one or two operations, no matter how much labor-saving technology is involved. The community at a Hutterite farm allows them to actually pull off what sustainability advocates talk about, but family farms consistently struggle with: diversifying… We don’t have to commit to the Hutterite lifestyle to benefit from the advantages of collaborative farming. Big, diverse, employee-owned farms work, and they can turn farming into a job that anyone can train for and get — you don’t have to be born into it.”

  43. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:59 am 

    REAL Green understands the plight of the family farm. It knows the challenges that cannot be overcome but instead attempts to leverage the status quo to maintain a minimum effort. REAL Green knows that collaborative farming like communities of Amish and Hutterites has to be a beacon but one that is a template for efforts not a lifestyle most can live currently. REAL Green is not faith based it is individual and local about behavior and GREEN effort. This REAL Green beacon is towards localism with community engaged in local and communal efforts because ultimately that is the best effort to combat decline. Private property needs to be part of this effort but also local and communal ownership and efforts. There are many different approaches because there are thousands of locals and ways of life. REAL Green says the basics apply to all. It is first about behavior with Kubler Roth acceptance of a macro collapse process. It is then about triage away from but also the leveraging of the current failing but powerful system. Clear the deadwood out because you know we are heading for a time of forced reductions in everything. This means more work and less comforts so you target that reductions early with incremental less painful reduction efforts. Build what you can while you can and within the path dependency of the status quo.

    Almost all of us are stranded in a status quo of delocalization of globalism and its late stage capitalism. IOW almost all of us have no choice but to live and work in something that is a force contrary to what REAL Green is trying to do. Within this conflict REAL Green says all you can do is relative GREEN building. You will also be with significant others and in an abstract community that are not REAL Green motivated. Even in yourself you will be conflicted because this is about contradictory efforts. On the one hand you work in the status quo and on the other you think and act to leave it as best you can. Some are not even that lucky. Some have no resources and or time but many can have the behavior and use their personal free time to change and prepare. Some are not even at the level of understanding REAL Green or they are extreme egoist dedicated to themselves. Some very trapped people who understand REAL Green can still develop a plan and at least be able to move constructively if destructive forces overwhelm them. Eventually the system will drop to a new and different way of life and REAL Green will allow you to have some assets and planning in place.

    So REAL Green is about green prepping. One of the most important aspects of REAL green is returning to the land with the old ways of biomass and low carbon gathering and harvesting. This includes modern versions like solar and wind which REAL Green seeks to enhance with the embrace of intermittency, low carbon localism, holistic efficiency efforts, and conservation. There efforts are regenerative processes because locals that has people living in it naturally regenerate. People take care of places they stay in. Yet, REAL green realizes you live and work in the status quo so for many your embrace will be relative and limited because the status quo will tear you away. REAL Green is more than farming it can also be someone living on a sailboat but utilizing this way of life in some productive fashion that can be applied in the changing environment of a decline process. Craftsmen and skilled people can apply REAL Green.

  44. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 4:59 am 

    Basically, REAL Green is about applying honest behavior to the local within a world that provides from a delocalizing globalistic network of support and security. It is about managing these two contradictory realities and in this process adapting your local away from delocalizing globalism in small incremental ways. Some may have the time and resources and, in this case, they go up the ascending ladder of enlightenment with a monastery of knowledge, tools, and structures of a low carbon greener life grounded in localism and community. Sometimes this is only a personal affair because there just are not people resources. This is still an effort of collecting seeds that is a REAL Green effort for those who might come after who will have the time and the resources.

    Small family farms are dying but so are many planetary ecosystems both human and natural. REAL Green understands this and attempts to adapt and mitigate this. To do this the status quo must be engaged. There will be times where you are not Green and this is why REAL Green needs to be embraced so one can manage the inconsistencies of emotions that come with living contradictions. This effort is actually a character-building process that makes a REAL Green tougher. Faith in the process motivates and gives compassion for the continued experience of failure. Collapse is about failure so REAL Green deals with it head on. REAL Green is not a religion but it is meant to be an add on to your higher power that normally is lacking planetary connection and acceptance of failure.

    REAL Greens central and overriding element is attitude and behavior first then technology and effort second. Until behavior is dealt with the rest of the process cannot function properly. REAL Green accepts failure to start with and starts building from there with the understanding failure will be dealt with every step of the way. This is critical and differentiate REAL Green from other movements to save the planet that claim there will be success. There can only be a flexible retreat but with the possibility of some kind of rebirth that may or may not involve the person undertaking REAL Green. This reflects natural succession in the great ecosystem. REAL green emulates the planet and this is how the planet works. This is more than most people can handle because failure ultimately means death and most are in denial of death so it means a special few will be awakened to this meaning. This does not matter because sometimes just a few can have magnified effects later in the right environment of change.

  45. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 5:38 am 

    REAL Green is about SHUT THE FUCK UP

  46. REAL Green on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 7:51 am 

    Is not real, or green. Just the babbling on of a lunatic.

  47. Stupid is up on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 8:11 am 

    This is JuanP comment:

    REAL Green said Is not real, or green. Just the babbling on of a l…

  48. This is stupid too on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 8:13 am 

    JuanP is triggered:

    REAL Green is about SHUT THE FUCK

  49. Davy on Sat, 16th Nov 2019 2:19 pm 

    Do you like them? I sure do. My word salads are REAL GUUD.

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