Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on May 24, 2017
How Did We Get Here, and Why Is It So Hard to Fix?
Activities that cause emissions are ubiquitous, diverse and deeply embedded in modern life. The world’s energy system is huge and long-lived. This makes emissions tough to deal with.
This post is the first of two stepping back a little from the specific topics I usually cover to take a very high level look at why the climate change problem is so hard to fix. This first post looks at how we got here and (at a very high level) the physical and engineering challenges of addressing the climate change problem. The next post will consider some of the political and psychological barriers to greater action.
The consequence of industrialisation
The world’s climate was remarkably stable from before the birth of agriculture, some 8-10,000 years ago, until very recent times[1]. Human civilisation grew up in a stable climate, and knew nothing else, despite the calamities caused on occasions by storms, floods, drought, and so forth.
Industrialisation changed this. There is no single year that definitively marks the beginning of industrialisation, but 1776 probably as good a reference point as any. It was an eventful year, with the US Declaration of Independence giving history one of its most famous dates, while elsewhere the first edition of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations was published and the Bolshoi Theatre opened its first season. But in the long view of history perhaps more important than any of these was that James Watt’s steam engines began to power industrial production[2]. This, more than any other event, marks the beginning of the industrial era.
In the nearly two and a half centuries since 1776, world population has grown by almost a factor of about 10. Economic output per person has also grown by a factor of about 10. Taking these two changes together, the world’s economic activity has increased by a factor of about 100. This has put huge stresses on a range of natural systems, including the atmosphere[3],[4].
The increase in the use of fossil fuels has been even greater than the increase in industrial activity. Around 12 million tonnes of fossil fuels, almost entirely coal, were burnt each year before 1776[5]. Today the world burns about 12 billion tonnes of fossil fuels each year, an increase of a factor of 1000[6].
This huge increase in the burning of fossil fuels is now – together with deforestation, agriculture and a few other activities – changing the make-up of the atmosphere on a large scale. This in turn, is changing the world’s climate. Within a single human lifetime – just one percent or so of the time since the birth of agriculture – changes to the climate are likely to be much greater than human civilisation has ever before experienced. The consequences of these changes are likely to be largely harmful, because manmade and natural systems are largely adapted to the world we have, not the one we are making.
The characteristics of the systems that have led to these changes also make the problems hard to address.
The scale of emissions is huge …
The scale of CO2 emitted from the energy system is vast, around 36 billion tonnes p.a. If this were frozen into solid form as “dry ice” it would cover the whole of Manhattan Island to the depth of about two thirds of the Empire State building.
The system that generates these emissions is correspondingly huge. The world’s energy system cost tens of trillions of dollars to build, and is correspondingly immensely expensive to replace.
The diversity and dispersion of emissions makes the problem more challenging …
The problem is worse even than its scale alone suggests. It would be simpler to deal with emissions if they were all in one place, whether Manhattan or elsewhere, and in solid form. Instead emissions are dispersed across billions of individual sources around the world. And they come from many different types of activity, from transporting food and powering electronics to heating and cooling homes and offices. There is no single technology doing one thing to be replaced, but a wide diversity of technologies and applications.
And once emissions get into the atmosphere the greenhouse gases are very dilute. Carbon dioxide makes up only 400 parts per million (0.04%) of the atmosphere. Among other things this makes capture of CO2 once it has got into the atmosphere difficult and expensive.
And assets producing emissions are very long lived …
Energy infrastructure often lasts many decades, so changing infrastructure tends to be a long term process, with premature replacement expensive. And on the whole the existing system does its job remarkably well. There would be little need for very rapid changes to the system if it were not for climate change and other forms of pollution.
Energy is central to modern life …
Finally it’s not possible to simply switch off the world’s energy system because it is essential to modern life. Hurricane Sandy disrupted much of New York’s energy system, and the consequences of that gave an indication of how quickly modern life collapses without critical energy infrastructure.
These physical characteristics of the problem are compounded by the political and psychological obstacles to change at the necessary scale. I will return to these in my next post.
25 Comments on "How Did We Get Here, and Why Is It So Hard to Fix?"
onlooker on Wed, 24th May 2017 7:53 am
Yes, we embarked on Industrialization with FF and have rode that wave of material prosperity to the present. In hindsight though we will come to rue the day we did so
rockman on Wed, 24th May 2017 8:12 am
Looker – As Tonto said to the Lone Ranger: “What do you mean “we” white man?”. LOL. The vast major of “we” won’t be negatively effected by climate change…most of “we” are going to be dead by the time the worst develops. In fact, for most of the last 100 years a lot of “we” have greatly benefited from fossil fuels. And thus the real problem: BAU is desirable by many as well as billions who are striving to get a piece of that BAU.
Which is why ranting how bad things will eventually get IN THE FUTURE is wasted breath for the most part IMHO.
Jef on Wed, 24th May 2017 8:32 am
So doing something you know is fatally destructive is ok as long as it doesn’t effect you?
This attitude is the #1 reason why we will not/can not do anything about climate change.
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 9:50 am
$$Wildfires will soon be consuming more of our forests, say experts – how can we stop them?
As global warming takes its toll on the environment, wildfires are likely to become more common and more widespread. Is there anything we can do to stop them?$$
https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/wildfires-will-soon-be-consuming-more-of-our-forests-say-experts-how-can-we-stop-them/
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 9:56 am
Fucking Dutch scum fucks will do anything for “grant money”.
Sea change: How the Dutch confront the rise of the oceans
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/sea-change-how-the-dutch-confront-the-rise-of-the-oceans/
Cloggie on Wed, 24th May 2017 10:23 am
Fucking Dutch scum fucks will do anything for “grant money”.
TalmudTurd, aren’t afraid that folks will actually click on your CBS link to find an honest American homage to Dutch water management skills? lol
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 11:45 am
clog don’t forget those dirty sneaky Germany scum fucks either. Anymore of this and another round of carpet-fire bombing is in order.
Police search Daimler facilities in dieselgate probe
German authorities have raided several locations associated with German premium carmaker Daimler. They acted on an initial suspicion of fraud involving misleading information about emission levels.
“The carmaker said the investigations targeted “known and unknown employees of Daimler AG over suspicion of fraud related to the possible manipulation of exhaust gas emissions in passenger cars with diesel engines.”
“VW not the only culprit?
It’s understood that the Daimler probe is part of a wider investigation into potential emmissions-cheating scams that was triggered by domestic rival Volkswagen.
The latter was forced to admit in September 2015 that it installed so-called defeat devices in a total of 11 million cars globally to manipulate emissions test results in the laboratory.”
http://www.dw.com/en/police-search-daimler-facilities-in-dieselgate-probe/a-38584986
Why wait? The pollution from these rigged vehicles is killing and sickening decent white N American children. That’s a good enough pretext for me – Bombs Away……again.
Jerome Purtzer on Wed, 24th May 2017 11:49 am
Hey, wasn’t Higher Ground a Stevie Wonder Song. The blind leading the blind!
onlooker on Wed, 24th May 2017 11:53 am
Higher Love- Steve Winwood?
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 11:55 am
It can’t be fixed. Professional environmentalists are so full of shit.
Methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (2017)
Published on May 23, 2017
The East Siberian Arctic Shelf has received more attention in recent years in regards to a potential contribution of the greenhouse gas methane, for the global methane budget, from several different sources. However, more studies are required to better constrain this potential accelerator of ongoing climate change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJfOWfaP6RI
Oh ya, more studies will help. Just one or two more pieces of information and the humans will up and change their biological programming. It’s just like a light switch that they can turn on or off at will.
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 11:57 am
New Insight on Why Frost-Free Seasons Are Getting Longer
“It’s no secret that frost-free periods are lengthening nationwide. The trend in recent decades has varied from about a week longer in the Southeast to nearly three weeks longer in the Southwest (Figure 1). The current study found a quite similar geographic pattern when looking across a longer time period (1920-2012). The 2014 U.S. National Assessment noted that the frost-free season could grow by another month or more over the 21st century: “These increases are projected to be much greater than the normal year-to-year variability experienced today.”
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-insight-why-frost-free-seasons-are-getting-longer
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 12:01 pm
Low sea ice in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska
“Sea ice this spring in the Chukchi Sea, off northwest Alaska, is breaking up and melting earlier and much more extensively than is typical for May.”
“Why is this melt happening now? First, open water persisted in a large area in the western Arctic until mid-December. This was very unusual—possibly unprecedented—and it reduced the time available for ice growth by a month or more. Also, virtually no multi-year ice moved into the area from the northeast, as typically happened in decades past. Finally, the winter was exceptionally mild. Utqiaġvik (Barrow) recorded an average temperature for October through April of +5.4°F, the warmest winter in nearly a century of climate observations.
Impacts of an early opening of the Chukchi Sea extend across the climate system, ecosystems, and human activities. The mere presence of water instead of ice gives an immediate boost to regional temperatures and possibly precipitation. The lack of ice and increased mobility of the remaining ice impacts marine mammals and the overall biology of a region tuned to a longer ice season. For human activity, impacts include access and feasibility of subsistence hunting, a mainstay of the northwest Alaska traditional economy as well as the potential for an earlier than expected start to marine activities, including commercial shipping and tourism-related sailing ventures.”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/low-sea-ice-chukchi-sea-alaska
Cloggie on Wed, 24th May 2017 12:02 pm
clog don’t forget those dirty sneaky Germany scum fucks either. Anymore of this and another round of carpet-fire bombing is in order.
As if your kind needs an excuse to carpet bomb, heck nuke cities.
This time I’m betting on a #110, just for good measure.
https://www.biblebelievers.org.au/expelled.htm
Cloggie on Wed, 24th May 2017 12:13 pm
The city of Rotterdam has begun a campaign to wipe non-Christian religions from the face of the earth:
https://twitter.com/RDStad/status/867244017267986433/photo/1
Your overlords want you to produce or die on Wed, 24th May 2017 12:55 pm
Make it a war to wipe all religions off the earth and I’ll sign on.
Religious people are the most vicious sub human apes around. They need to be exterminated.
rockman on Wed, 24th May 2017 1:30 pm
Jef – “So doing something you know is fatally destructive is ok as long as it doesn’t effect you?” Which is exactly the point I made which may have alluded you: it is not “fatally destructive” for the vast majority of those involved in the process. In fact just the opposite for a great many.
Human beings trend to be pretty good at not doing something that negatively affects them PERSONALLY. And equally skilled at doing something to their benefit.
You and others can be just as preachy as you like if it gives y’all a satisfying sense of superiority. But that “will not/can not do anything about climate change.”
Dredd on Wed, 24th May 2017 2:29 pm
The main problem is not being ‘here’ (You Are Here).
Dredd on Wed, 24th May 2017 2:32 pm
rockman wrote: “Which is why ranting how bad things will eventually get IN THE FUTURE is wasted breath for the most part IMHO.”
That is the BAU (bullshit as usual) problem that got us here.
Dredd on Wed, 24th May 2017 2:39 pm
“something is happening here but you don’t know what it is, do you Mr. Jones” – Nobel Laureate Dylan
Jim Jones the oil-qaeda man (MOMCOM’s Mass Suicide & Murder Pact – 3).
dave thompson on Wed, 24th May 2017 5:37 pm
There are some that say we have another 3 to 10 years before habitat to grow food is gone.
makati1 on Wed, 24th May 2017 6:22 pm
We are way past any possible “fix”. Three to ten years may be wrong, but not much longer.
Apneaman on Wed, 24th May 2017 7:42 pm
Never heard of this dude before, but he pretty much gets it.
There’s More to the Ecological Crisis than Global Warming
“AGW is an unimaginably terrible problem that is growing worse every year even while it accelerates. Contrary to what even good-climate-change-believing liberals will tell you, it severity is almost ubiquitously underestimated, and it will cause untold damage to our civilization and the biosphere if we don’t do something about it yesterday.
What is important to note, though, is that while Climate Change may be the ecological crisis that is going to kill us all the soonest, it is far from the only such crisis. Even if we were to convert to 100% renewable energy this afternoon , the crisis would not be past.”
-plenty more
https://medium.com/@thugznkisses/theres-more-to-the-ecological-crisis-than-global-warming-2de8a66de4d
DerHundistlos on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:41 pm
Ape-
So VERY true. Climate Change seems to suck all of the air out of the room, although as the article demonstrates we are confronting a host of environmental problems that are now converging into the perfect storm.
Dooma on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:01 am
You just know when the 1% are building ant nests that something big is going to happen.
I hope aliens pour lighter fluid down their holes and burn the bastards.
Theedrich on Fri, 26th May 2017 5:09 am
DNC: Don’t investigate Seth Rich murder! Interesting how we find the story of possible Clinton involvement in the Rich murder deepening. Funny how the Clintons, the Demonic Party, and the MSM don’t want themselves investigated, but are hot to trot on sniffing out the least possible innuendo about the most incidental connections between supporters of President Trump and Russia. And yes, we all know that all those “suicides” and other “accidental” deaths around the Clintons for so many years were just flukes. And how Donna Brazile has taken no part in anything, like maybe slipping debate questions from CNN to Hillary Clinton.
Yep, as usual, nothing to see here, folks. Just move on. Understand??? Move on!